POLL: Did we hit the bottom?

[figmentofmyass]

By a couple of my EW possible counts, we have not yet seen the final bottom. However, the final 5s of bitcoin corrections tend to get truncated, so...

this is a big factor in my own analysis. i've never seen an asset with so many truncated fifths/failed C waves, particular to the downside. it can be dangerous to get caught in the "one more dip" mindset.

As for weekly MACD, it forms a bearish double bottom (bearish divergence), so until I'll see a bullish one, I will doubt that we already saw the final bottom.

agreed, i'd like to see a bullish divergence on the weekly MACD histogram, similar to the january 2015 bottom. it's not required, but it would definitely give me more confidence.

[Slow death]

Just like the title says: Did we hit the bottom yet? Or will the downtrend continue?



I'm trying to get a feel for whether people are bullish or bearish. The poll will run for 10 days and people can change their vote.

this was the main theme of December last year and it was said that we would see the $2000 to $1000. and then the price rose above $4000 and started to say that we would be rising to $6000. and the price dropped again and we returned to the old theme: "where is the bottom?"

waiting bottom or cheap btc?
i hope you can't buy under 5000
remember  when price trade over 10000 per btc
by the way price in july will be 7000 ---- 9000 usd per btc
thank you

may be we never see $10,000 again, the fact is that nothing guarantees that the price will rise again

[Stedsm]

$2500 and further down, $1800 are in the talks currently as shorts are trying to make more on leveraged money. Recently, you must have noticed that CBOE withdrew its VanEck/SolidX ETF application due to a rule change but nothing affected the markets as they promised to come back with a properly framed and an abide-by-rule ETF and they kept their promise which made BTC remain stable. I see no hard moves currently for the next 2 - 3 months (as I don't think Bakkt will launch till then) and BTC must remain stable (or sideways in my words) in order to stay safe from those harsh "bottoms" which could be very hazardous to the whole crypto economy as the selling pressure here will end up pressurizing investors to fetch out their money out of alts as well. Still, IMHO BTC's current value of $3.4k is definitely undervalued and it should be at least $6k to remain the most profitable and dominant crypto.

[exstasie]

Not bad so far! Out of 27 votes, nearly two thirds are bearish and are expecting new lows. I bet if you asked this question while we were trading in the $6,000s the results would be turned upside down (or more).

I'm torn. I'd expect new lows maybe 60% of the time, to put a number on it. The closest fractal I can think of is ~end of October 2014 but history doesn't usually repeat itself exactly.

[ralle14]

I voted for no in the poll, since the price is slightly stable in the last couple of months. I have a feeling that there will be another bloodbath similar to what we've seen last year when the price stayed at the $6k for quite a while then it cracked down to where we are atm. Expecting this downtrend to continue until the next halving event.

[Tzupy]

By a couple of my EW possible counts, we have not yet seen the final bottom. However, the final 5s of bitcoin corrections tend to get truncated, so...

this is a big factor in my own analysis. i've never seen an asset with so many truncated fifths/failed C waves, particular to the downside. it can be dangerous to get caught in the "one more dip" mindset.

As for weekly MACD, it forms a bearish double bottom (bearish divergence), so until I'll see a bullish one, I will doubt that we already saw the final bottom.

agreed, i'd like to see a bullish divergence on the weekly MACD histogram, similar to the january 2015 bottom. it's not required, but it would definitely give me more confidence.

Umm, the January 2015 MACD showed a mild bearish divergence, not bullish. By comparison, right now we have a strong bearish divergence. IMO a mild bearish divergence favors truncation, while a strong one does not.
The strong indicator of the ending of the bear market was the October 2015 weekly MACD cross into positive, IMO now we'll have to wait a long time for that.

[figmentofmyass]

As for weekly MACD, it forms a bearish double bottom (bearish divergence), so until I'll see a bullish one, I will doubt that we already saw the final bottom.

agreed, i'd like to see a bullish divergence on the weekly MACD histogram, similar to the january 2015 bottom. it's not required, but it would definitely give me more confidence.

Umm, the January 2015 MACD showed a mild bearish divergence, not bullish.

i don't use the MACD signal line, just the histogram. the histogram showed a strong bullish divergence, as seen here---

By comparison, right now we have a strong bearish divergence. IMO a mild bearish divergence favors truncation, while a strong one does not.

what do you mean when you say "bearish divergence"? that's usually a term that compares highs, not lows.
https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/divergence-cheat-sheet

[mirakal]

I think yes, the price almost reach the bottom, and i think we will not see much lower than 3000$ for a bitcoin, and also most coins are still in low price and we will need some times for a grow, maybe a grow will start after Bakkt.

I also believe that we hit the bottom already.

However, it seems like most of us are not yet convince about it because the poll results is different, most voters still believe
that we will have a lower price than the current, I know it's possible so if in case that will happen, we should be strong to hold.

[Wind_FURY]

If the "hash war" did not happen between Bitcoin Cash ABC and SV, would there be a possibility of a crash from $6000 to $3000? I don't think there would be. Because, that "crash" was caused mainly by both the ABC, and SV camps, selling their Bitcoins to fund mining at a loss in their "hash war drama".

[onrise]

I think yes, the price almost reach the bottom, and i think we will not see much lower than 3000$ for a bitcoin, and also most coins are still in low price and we will need some times for a grow, maybe a grow will start after Bakkt.

I also believe that we hit the bottom already.

However, it seems like most of us are not yet convince about it because the poll results is different, most voters still believe
that we will have a lower price than the current, I know it's possible so if in case that will happen, we should be strong to hold.

I have being of the firm believer that it is almost near the bottom and people who have being waiting to buy when price crops should ideally be start buying now rater than it becomes too late and prices set to rise sky high as this opportunity not every time you will have it to buy at such low prices.

[exstasie]

If the "hash war" did not happen between Bitcoin Cash ABC and SV, would there be a possibility of a crash from $6000 to $3000? I don't think there would be. Because, that "crash" was caused mainly by both the ABC, and SV camps, selling their Bitcoins to fund mining at a loss in their "hash war drama".

Why do you think so? Any blockchain evidence for that?

Across the world, many hundreds of thousands of coins were sold. I didn't see any Satoshi coins moving, so I'm pretty sure the Bcash guys were only a small fraction of all the selling. A simpler explanation: demand near $6K was getting really weak and could no longer absorb market supply.

Maybe their little war was the straw that broke the camel's back, but that's all.

[deisik]

If the "hash war" did not happen between Bitcoin Cash ABC and SV, would there be a possibility of a crash from $6000 to $3000? I don't think there would be. Because, that "crash" was caused mainly by both the ABC, and SV camps, selling their Bitcoins to fund mining at a loss in their "hash war drama"

Somehow, it doesn't feel plausible. I'm inclined to think that both camps were mostly busy selling wolf tickets (i.e. throwing empty threats at each other). Otherwise, we would see a lot of more action like direct attacks against the opposing chain, but nothing like that had in fact happened. If anything, the hash war was only a trigger, while the crash of Bitcoin was kinda set in stone beforehand (read, it would have happened even without the Bitcoin Cash controversy). Regarding the poll, herewith I report that I didn't vote as I don't know whether we bottomed or not yet

I stand for volatility, not so much for bottoms or tops (still better bottomless and topless)

[1Referee]

A simpler explanation: demand near $6K was getting really weak and could no longer absorb market supply.

If you look at the charts, there was clearly a descending triangle visible that we respected in both the up and down direction. I personally thought it would break to the up side due to how Bitcoin tends to pump around October/November, but not this time. Down it went.

The amount of stop losses that were parked below $6000 must have been insane, and ultimately resulting in a brutal selloff with how bots instantly pull their buy orders further exaggerating the dump due to the lack of liquidity on the buy side.

Regarding OP; I do believe that there is a pretty decent chance that we're very near the bottom. If we follow the bottoming process in 2015, one should expect the 200 wma to be something we'll be dealing with for a couple of more months. Closing below the 200 wma will become a problem, but we're not at that stage and I don't expect it to happen.

[mirakal]

I think yes, the price almost reach the bottom, and i think we will not see much lower than 3000$ for a bitcoin, and also most coins are still in low price and we will need some times for a grow, maybe a grow will start after Bakkt.

I also believe that we hit the bottom already.

However, it seems like most of us are not yet convince about it because the poll results is different, most voters still believe
that we will have a lower price than the current, I know it's possible so if in case that will happen, we should be strong to hold.

I have being of the firm believer that it is almost near the bottom and people who have being waiting to buy when price crops should ideally be start buying now rater than it becomes too late and prices set to rise sky high as this opportunity not every time you will have it to buy at such low prices.

The bottom was $3,200+ and now we are at $3,500+ so it's a big improvement.
Probably we will not go back to that level, you know when price hits lower than $3,000 a big panic might occur, and we don't want that.

[pooya87]

Just like the title says: Did we hit the bottom yet? Or will the downtrend continue?

I'm trying to get a feel for whether people are bullish or bearish. The poll will run for 10 days and people can change their vote.

i think you are asking a wrong question then. and there are a lot of things to consider about their answers. for example there are a lot of people who are waiting for the price to go lower so that they can buy, not that they would buy if it were to drop. and they are always waiting not just now, they were also waiting for it to drop when it was rising all through 2017.
that doesn't mean they are bullish or bearish though! it just means they are expressing their wishes.

and as for whether we have hit the bottom or not, i'd say we have but "bottom" in my opinion is not a fixed price. bottom is where the downtrend officially ended and accumulation began. price can go lower than that price but that doesn't change the fact that we have hit the bottom. take 2015 for example. price hit the bottom at $220-$250 and accumulation was happening. that was the "bottom" but the price fell below that mark and even reached $150 but that didn't change the fact that $220-$250 was the bottom.

[deisik]

and as for whether we have hit the bottom or not, i'd say we have but "bottom" in my opinion is not a fixed price. bottom is where the downtrend officially ended and accumulation began. price can go lower than that price but that doesn't change the fact that we have hit the bottom. take 2015 for example. price hit the bottom at $220-$250 and accumulation was happening. that was the "bottom" but the price fell below that mark and even reached $150 but that didn't change the fact that $220-$250 was the bottom

You are twisting the meaning of the term

Of course, no one can take that right from you as this is a free forum after all. But then you run the risk of being misunderstood as for most people, me included, the bottom is the lowest price, as simple as it gets. And what adds more insult to injury here, this price rarely resembles a "bottom" (like a seabed), it is more like an abyss, with a long red stick followed by an almost instant rebound. That's likely the reason why you don't feel quite right and don't sit well with this definition of a price bottom

[Wind_FURY]

If the "hash war" did not happen between Bitcoin Cash ABC and SV, would there be a possibility of a crash from $6000 to $3000? I don't think there would be. Because, that "crash" was caused mainly by both the ABC, and SV camps, selling their Bitcoins to fund mining at a loss in their "hash war drama".

Why do you think so? Any blockchain evidence for that?

None. Maybe I should have posted "in theory".

But you have to question the timing of the "hash war", and the crash. Was it merely coincidence? The what would the real reason for the crash be?

Across the world, many hundreds of thousands of coins were sold. I didn't see any Satoshi coins moving, so I'm pretty sure the Bcash guys were only a small fraction of all the selling.

Satoshi's coins have nothing to do with the hash war, maybe unless if you believe Craig Wright is Satoshi. But there are other big whales that support ABC and SV.

A simpler explanation: demand near $6K was getting really weak and could no longer absorb market supply.

Maybe their little war was the straw that broke the camel's back, but that's all.

But would it have been also possible for "Roger Ver and friends" to dump Bitcoins to support Bitcoin Cash ABC both on the market and costs of mining? The same with "Calvin Ayre and friends" on SV.

The theory isn't that unrealistic in my opinion.

If the "hash war" did not happen between Bitcoin Cash ABC and SV, would there be a possibility of a crash from $6000 to $3000? I don't think there would be. Because, that "crash" was caused mainly by both the ABC, and SV camps, selling their Bitcoins to fund mining at a loss in their "hash war drama"

Somehow, it doesn't feel plausible. I'm inclined to think that both camps were mostly busy selling wolf tickets (i.e. throwing empty threats at each other). Otherwise, we would see a lot of more action like direct attacks against the opposing chain, but nothing like that had in fact happened. If anything, the hash war was only a trigger, while the crash of Bitcoin was kinda set in stone beforehand (read, it would have happened even without the Bitcoin Cash controversy). Regarding the poll, herewith I report that I didn't vote as I don't know whether we bottomed or not yet

Maybe. But if it was the trigger, then it would be harder to do the guess-work if the crash would have happened or not, with or without the so-called hash war.

[deisik]

Maybe. But if it was the trigger, then it would be harder to do the guess-work if the crash would have happened or not, with or without the so-called hash war

It's not necessarily so

You should just try to think a little out of the box. If the price was actually caused by a massive dump of bitcoins by either or both Bitcoin Cash camps, which seems to be your point, we would see massive rebounds as soon as the selling pressure was removed. But that's not the case as we are stagnating pretty much in the same way as we had been 3 months ago before they started the war

Okay, you can say that they are still selling bitcoins to support the price of their chains (keeping Bitcoin's price from rising whenever there is a hint at this) and the pressure is still on. But in that case what does it have to do with these "hash wars" at all? And how is that particularly different from any other coin being supported by its users via selling something else to prop up the price of that coin?

[Pursuer]

like the peak of a bubble, the low of a bottom is impossible to predict.

this means by the time bitcoin price went from $9k to $15k in ~15 days, it was already in the bubble but you could not say whether it is the "top" or not. we eventually figured that the "top" is at $19900 or $20k if you round it up.
now is exactly the same. price has dropped and has reached the end of the drop but you can never say where the "bottom" is. we are already at the bottom but price may or may not go any lower.

with that said I think there is no point in asking this question because you are basically asking people to make a guess on something they CAN NOT predict.

[adaseb]

We might or we might not have. We will only know in hindsight.

Basically people were assuming $6K (or $5800) was the low during 2018 before it broke in November 2018.

The issue with the $6K as support was that on the weekly it failed to make higher highs and higher lows, basically every bounce ended up being a lower high.

We need the complete opposite now, we "might" of had a higher low recently at $3300 but we need to close higher than $4200 or $4400 on the daily chart, and we need those to act as support. Until this happens we run the risk of breaking $3100 support.