POLL: Did we hit the bottom?

[exstasie]

Just like the title says: Did we hit the bottom yet? Or will the downtrend continue?

I'm trying to get a feel for whether people are bullish or bearish. The poll will run for 10 days and people can change their vote.

i think you are asking a wrong question then. and there are a lot of things to consider about their answers. for example there are a lot of people who are waiting for the price to go lower so that they can buy, not that they would buy if it were to drop.

The point is to gauge whether people are holding or not. If they're bullish, then they're probably holding. And if everyone has already bought, then we have nowhere to go but down. On the flip side, if everyone is bearish, they're either waiting to buy or they're short = strong buying demand.

It's the same idea as studying the commitment of traders. High shorts = bullish, because shorts closing = buying. High longs = bearish, because longs closing = selling. When the market is heavily long or heavily short, it usually pays to be a contrarian.

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[Wind_FURY]

Maybe. But if it was the trigger, then it would be harder to do the guess-work if the crash would have happened or not, with or without the so-called hash war

It's not necessarily so

You should just try to think a little out of the box. If the price was actually caused by a massive dump of bitcoins by either or both Bitcoin Cash camps, which seems to be your point, we would see massive rebounds as soon as the selling pressure was removed. But that's not the case as we are stagnating pretty much in the same way as we had been 3 months ago before they started the war

Okay, you can say that they are still selling bitcoins to support the price of their chains (keeping Bitcoin's price from rising whenever there is a hint at this) and the pressure is still on. But in that case what does it have to do with these "hash wars" at all? And how is that particularly different from any other coin being supported by its users via selling something else to prop up the price of that coin?

Urgency.

When the fork started, ABC and SV were both threatened by each other that one would attack the other chain. The whales of both camps had to urgently dump Bitcoins to spend on hashing power, to support the ABC and SV market, and to continue mining them at a loss.

[Red-Apple]

The issue with the $6K as support was that on the weekly it failed to make higher highs and higher lows, basically every bounce ended up being a lower high.

actually the $6000 was a pretty strong bottom at the time and the highs and lows were meaningless because they were all the same after the actual drop ended.
what is even more important is that if the BCH drama didn't occur, we would have never seen anything below $6k ever.

[deisik]

Okay, you can say that they are still selling bitcoins to support the price of their chains (keeping Bitcoin's price from rising whenever there is a hint at this) and the pressure is still on. But in that case what does it have to do with these "hash wars" at all? And how is that particularly different from any other coin being supported by its users via selling something else to prop up the price of that coin?

Urgency.

When the fork started, ABC and SV were both threatened by each other that one would attack the other chain. The whales of both camps had to urgently dump Bitcoins to spend on hashing power, to support the ABC and SV market, and to continue mining them at a loss

Obviously, I referred to what we see now

Not what they had to do at the moment of the fork if they had to do anything at all other than promising to unleash hell on the heads of their foes. And don't forget that the fork had been planned long ago and threats were thrown before it. All things considered, it would have made sense to prepare beforehand, i.e. sell bitcoins when Bitcoin was still high, not at the last moment

With that said, however, there is no strong evidence that would exclude the possibility of Bitcoin Cash supporters massively selling bitcoins to support ABC and SV blockchains, and some certainly did just that, while others might have been just looking to make quick profits. But the question still remains, i.e. how much of the recent Bitcoin crash was actually due to this showdown. Personally, I don't think that much

[bitbunnny]

This is hard to tell because price could always go lower. I rember when in 2018 price went below 6000$ many said that was the bottom but obviously the price has fallen even lower. But I don't think that the price drop stronlgy depended on Bitcoin cash like some here have indicated.
At this moment every prediction about the price is pure guessing so there is no use in it.

[gentlemand]

actually the $6000 was a pretty strong bottom at the time and the highs and lows were meaningless because they were all the same after the actual drop ended.
what is even more important is that if the BCH drama didn't occur, we would have never seen anything below $6k ever.

6 grand felt like no man's land to me.

On the way up 3 grand was really the only truly sticky area to get through so it makes sense that it would return to there and possibly not go below it.

I don't think it was anything to do with the Bcashes. It was going to happen regardless.

[samson]

December 15th, 2018 was the bottom of this one.....so far.

[Rub3n]

I think it could drop some more, perhaps this year will be the most boring year so far. Who knows?
Can we get some worldnews for a new hype? Someone?

[nc50lc]

217 views but only 38 voted... Still not enough votes to represent 0.1% of the users (at least here in speculation board).

There's nothing new at the moment, no updates, no "issues" and obviously,
there are no Hype-drivers for the overall crypto price (Bitcoin as the reference price) for that to be the bottom.
Wall Observer seemed inclined to lower price-range too.

BTW, I voted for "No".

[Idrisu]

No one can really predict if we have reached the bottom yet as the market is still bearish and it is very difficult to be able to know if there is not going to be a continuous in the bearish directions.

[BrewMaster]

actually the $6000 was a pretty strong bottom at the time and the highs and lows were meaningless because they were all the same after the actual drop ended.
what is even more important is that if the BCH drama didn't occur, we would have never seen anything below $6k ever.

6 grand felt like no man's land to me.

On the way up 3 grand was really the only truly sticky area to get through so it makes sense that it would return to there and possibly not go below it.

I don't think it was anything to do with the Bcashes. It was going to happen regardless.

then why did the drop happen during the Bcash fork?

it can't be a coincidence that they spread a lot of FUD about bitcoin, then spread the fear that a large amount of bitcoin (i think 1 million was the bullshit claim) is going to be dumped on bitcoin market to use the money to buy BSV and pump it. then the bitcoin price drops as the whales take advantage of the circulating fear to short bitcoin and make money.

i say without bcash price would have never dropped no matter how much whales tried because the market was pretty solid and the support at $6k was very strong. it was tested at least a dozen times and could not be broken.

[deisik]

i say without bcash price would have never dropped no matter how much whales tried because the market was pretty solid and the support at $6k was very strong. it was tested at least a dozen times and could not be broken.

There are a few gaps in your reasoning

If support was so strong as you say and the price never dropped below 6k no matter how hard the whales tried, then why did we fall so heavy, actually 2 times? Isn't it a bit too much for just fear mongering? Further, if it were whales shorting bitcoins, then we should have expected a strong rebound after these shorts got closed, right? But this didn't happen and we didn't rise substantially above 4k ever since

And last but not least, if this fall was due to Bitcoin Cash controversy, we should be seeing extreme volatility now, but this is not the case. In other words, price behaves as if it truly belongs to the current range for the time being, and that gives you plenty of room for doubt regarding how much the Bitcoin Cash apocalypse is actually involved in all this

[gentlemand]

then why did the drop happen during the Bcash fork?

it can't be a coincidence that they spread a lot of FUD about bitcoin, then spread the fear that a large amount of bitcoin (i think 1 million was the bullshit claim) is going to be dumped on bitcoin market to use the money to buy BSV and pump it. then the bitcoin price drops as the whales take advantage of the circulating fear to short bitcoin and make money.

i say without bcash price would have never dropped no matter how much whales tried because the market was pretty solid and the support at $6k was very strong. it was tested at least a dozen times and could not be broken.

It was looking for a trigger?

I don't see how spurious claims and a bit of Calvin's dumping could do this unless it's the range it was heading for anyway. If enough people believed 6 grand was the right price they would've gulped up all dump attempts and it would have floated back up there.

[figmentofmyass]

then why did the drop happen during the Bcash fork?

it can't be a coincidence that they spread a lot of FUD about bitcoin, then spread the fear that a large amount of bitcoin (i think 1 million was the bullshit claim) is going to be dumped on bitcoin market to use the money to buy BSV and pump it. then the bitcoin price drops as the whales take advantage of the circulating fear to short bitcoin and make money.

i say without bcash price would have never dropped no matter how much whales tried because the market was pretty solid and the support at $6k was very strong. it was tested at least a dozen times and could not be broken.

It was looking for a trigger?

I don't see how spurious claims and a bit of Calvin's dumping could do this unless it's the range it was heading for anyway. If enough people believed 6 grand was the right price they would've gulped up all dump attempts and it would have floated back up there.

this x1000.

consider the flip side. during bubble times, bears attempt to trigger selloffs with big market dumps all the time. the market usually just absorbs the selling and pumps right back to the highs. if the BCH/SV split happened during the 2017 bubble, price obviously would have kept pumping.

in a bear market, demand is so weak that a wee little dump from calvin ayre might even move the market. that's a function of weak demand, not the BCH/SV split. when the bottom keeps falling out during a long term bear, people are extremely quick to selloff.

[exstasie]

actually the $6000 was a pretty strong bottom at the time and the highs and lows were meaningless because they were all the same after the actual drop ended.
what is even more important is that if the BCH drama didn't occur, we would have never seen anything below $6k ever.

6 grand felt like no man's land to me.

On the way up 3 grand was really the only truly sticky area to get through so it makes sense that it would return to there and possibly not go below it.

I don't think it was anything to do with the Bcashes. It was going to happen regardless.

Something always felt wrong about the $6K bottom. "No man's land" describes it well. I always thought it was an odd stopping point, and was constantly worried in 2018 that we needed to test actual historical support like $3K. Now that we have, it seems silly to blame BCH or anything else for the crash. This is just what happens in bear markets. When supply is strong and demand is weak, the market will find a reason to crash.

[Oceat]

Probably the downtrend will continue until it finds the deepest bottom and that's it a full reversal will going to happen and we will be seeing the bull run again on that day. But as for now, we will just have to wait and see on when it will go to start. A lot of people keep asking whether there is a bull market this year without considering the fact that a reversal has just started.

[mirakal]

Probably the downtrend will continue until it finds the deepest bottom and that's it a full reversal will going to happen and we will be seeing the bull run again on that day. But as for now, we will just have to wait and see on when it will go to start. A lot of people keep asking whether there is a bull market this year without considering the fact that a reversal has just started.

Do you have a target in your mind on what is going to be the bottom price?

I'd love to know and your analysis as well, because it's opposite on what I believe, but I always appreciate people giving honest prediction.
After all now one sees the future so we will only know if we are right or wrong when time will come.

[romero121]

What does a low bottom mean, if there's something like that one can come up with a prediction that the price will go as low as the starting price of bitcoin. In this regard I doesn't have a low bottom line for the value of bitcoin. It is good to move according to the market, rather than just thinking about its low bottom.

[marcbitcoins]

It is really hard to tell the market movement that even the experts in the field crypto are now losing their reputations due to their predictions did not happen as desired by last year because of this bearish market which is still in effect right now. Hopefully that Bitcoin already hit the bottom of below $4,000 that sooner or later the bullish market will start so that the price will bounced back.

[Wind_FURY]

Okay, you can say that they are still selling bitcoins to support the price of their chains (keeping Bitcoin's price from rising whenever there is a hint at this) and the pressure is still on. But in that case what does it have to do with these "hash wars" at all? And how is that particularly different from any other coin being supported by its users via selling something else to prop up the price of that coin?

Urgency.

When the fork started, ABC and SV were both threatened by each other that one would attack the other chain. The whales of both camps had to urgently dump Bitcoins to spend on hashing power, to support the ABC and SV market, and to continue mining them at a loss

Obviously, I referred to what we see now

Not what they had to do at the moment of the fork if they had to do anything at all other than promising to unleash hell on the heads of their foes.

But they had to do something. The whales of both sides were losing by mining their forks, when it would have been the right move to mine profitably in the Bitcoin network.

There was also the threat of the two dumping on each other's faces.

And don't forget that the fork had been planned long ago and threats were thrown before it. All things considered, it would have made sense to prepare beforehand, i.e. sell bitcoins when Bitcoin was still high, not at the last moment

I believe the threats of Craig Wright were not taken seriously until the fork started. When he forked to SV, it's when everyone saw he was serious. That time has never been more urgent for both ABC and SV.

With that said, however, there is no strong evidence that would exclude the possibility of Bitcoin Cash supporters massively selling bitcoins to support ABC and SV blockchains, and some certainly did just that, while others might have been just looking to make quick profits. But the question still remains, i.e. how much of the recent Bitcoin crash was actually due to this showdown. Personally, I don't think that much

True, but it's fun to discuss. Plus the timing of it all is "too perfect" to not consider that possbility.

Tinfoil hats on. Hahaha.