POLL: Did we hit the bottom?

[deisik]

With that said, however, there is no strong evidence that would exclude the possibility of Bitcoin Cash supporters massively selling bitcoins to support ABC and SV blockchains, and some certainly did just that, while others might have been just looking to make quick profits. But the question still remains, i.e. how much of the recent Bitcoin crash was actually due to this showdown. Personally, I don't think that much

True, but it's fun to discuss. Plus the timing of it all is "too perfect" to not consider that possbility

People often confuse cause and effect

Apart from that, if the beginning of the hash war was a trigger (which seems to be a prevailing opinion here and which I personally endorse and stick to myself), it should be "too perfect" by definition. But it doesn't in the least mean that without this particular trigger the price wouldn't crash sooner or later. In such situations anything can be a trigger, and the longer the system remains in this quasi-stable state, the more sensitive it becomes to external disturbances, however small they might be (let's call it the butterfly effect)

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[thecodebear]

Maybe. Everyone is waiting for a capitulation that might not come anymore. Why? Because everyone has already sold what they needed sell. They now maybe have bids on $2500 - $3000.

I believe the market will adjust soon, and those bids will slowly go up.

Yeah I am not at all convinced there is gonna be some capitulation event and giant bounce forming a V that shows clearly the bottom is in....because we already saw the capitulation event: the 50% drop from $6000s to $3000s!! I don't know why people ignore that! Just because it didn't have a bounce up to form a V doesn't mean that wasn't capitulation. It suddenly dropped by 50% after forming a bottom over the course of like 10 months last year. If that's not capitulation I don't know what is.

I certainly think there's a chance Bitcoin will go lower and break $3000 at some time in the next few months, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the $3100s it hit in December was the bottom. It dropped from $6000s to mid-3000s, bounced up to low 4000s ("V"), sank to $3100s, bounced back up to low $4000s, and now is chillin' at mid-3000s. Seems to me we've clearly seen the capitulation and now we're scrapping along the bottom for a bunch of months just like in 2015.

I expect this 3000s range to hold (occasionally in the 4000s, perhaps at some point hitting 2000s as well) until summer or fall until people have accumulated enough so that supply is finally running short and enough people have gotten tired of waiting for it to drop to $1000 or whatever and they start picking it up while they can and price starts to rise naturally. Make no mistake there are plenty of people accumulating lots of Bitcoin right now as short sellers sell to them hoping that the price will drop significantly further (which it probably never will considering the current price is about at the normal bitcoin crash percentage). This process is when Bitcoin shifts from the tens of millions to the few, as the smart people with money accumulate as much as they can while the price is low...and then sell to the 10s or 100s of millions who will come piling into Bitcoin over the next 2 or 3 years, but selling to them at 20 times the price!

[xuan87]

I think it got the chance to go lower again, see from the market enthusiasm the Bitcoin is still not doing very good, and with a long and endless bear market the investors is a bit hesitate to enter the market, so I believe for the short term there will be another falling

[exstasie]

It dropped from $6000s to mid-3000s, bounced up to low 4000s ("V"), sank to $3100s, bounced back up to low $4000s, and now is chillin' at mid-3000s. Seems to me we've clearly seen the capitulation and now we're scrapping along the bottom for a bunch of months just like in 2015.

We weren't scraping along the bottom in 2015. After the capitulation low at $150 in 2015, we spent the next 8 months ranging between $210 and $320. The bottom of the range was 40% above the actual "bottom." This time, we're sloshing around less than 10% from the bottom. Buying power is much, much weaker this time around.

I think it's possible the bottom is in but the technical signs aren't there.

[deisik]

Yeah I am not at all convinced there is gonna be some capitulation event and giant bounce forming a V that shows clearly the bottom is in....because we already saw the capitulation event: the 50% drop from $6000s to $3000s!! I don't know why people ignore that! Just because it didn't have a bounce up to form a V doesn't mean that wasn't capitulation. It suddenly dropped by 50% after forming a bottom over the course of like 10 months last year. If that's not capitulation I don't know what is

Because it doesn't feel that way

The drop from 6k to 3k was very much like the other price drops before this one. For example, we first fell from 12k (which was considered a true bottom after the 20k top by many "distinguished analysts" here), then we fell from 9k to 6k. And the last fall felt very much the same as the previous falls did, so don't really expect people to think of it as a capitulation event even if it is

I certainly think there's a chance Bitcoin will go lower and break $3000 at some time in the next few months, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the $3100s it hit in December was the bottom. It dropped from $6000s to mid-3000s, bounced up to low 4000s ("V"), sank to $3100s, bounced back up to low $4000s, and now is chillin' at mid-3000s. Seems to me we've clearly seen the capitulation and now we're scrapping along the bottom for a bunch of months just like in 2015

Basically, you don't know. But don't worry, no one knows for sure, either

[figmentofmyass]

Maybe. Everyone is waiting for a capitulation that might not come anymore. Why? Because everyone has already sold what they needed sell. They now maybe have bids on $2500 - $3000.

I believe the market will adjust soon, and those bids will slowly go up.

Yeah I am not at all convinced there is gonna be some capitulation event and giant bounce forming a V that shows clearly the bottom is in....because we already saw the capitulation event: the 50% drop from $6000s to $3000s!! I don't know why people ignore that!

i don't ignore it, i just think we have very different definitions of capitulation. to me it doesn't just mean a 50% crash in price. it means a high volume selling climax followed by a strong reversal---

Technical analysts can visually identify capitulation using candlestick charts. Hammer candles often form at the end of a selling frenzy when the lowest price is made, as capitulation sets in and signals a price bottom followed by a reversal bounce on heavy volume. Traders who wanted to sell their positions have done so as panic reached a climax. As fear starts to subside, greed may set in and reverse prices.

we didn't see a high volume bottom. the december bounce came out of a low volume sideways. there's no hammer candle or even a wick on the weekly chart. in order to say capitulation occurred, we'd have to use a different and more vague definition.

[Wind_FURY]

With that said, however, there is no strong evidence that would exclude the possibility of Bitcoin Cash supporters massively selling bitcoins to support ABC and SV blockchains, and some certainly did just that, while others might have been just looking to make quick profits. But the question still remains, i.e. how much of the recent Bitcoin crash was actually due to this showdown. Personally, I don't think that much

True, but it's fun to discuss. Plus the timing of it all is "too perfect" to not consider that possbility

People often confuse cause and effect

Apart from that, if the beginning of the hash war was a trigger (which seems to be a prevailing opinion here and which I personally endorse and stick to myself), it should be "too perfect" by definition. But it doesn't in the least mean that without this particular trigger the price wouldn't crash sooner or later. In such situations anything can be a trigger, and the longer the system remains in this quasi-stable state, the more sensitive it becomes to external disturbances, however small they might be (let's call it the butterfly effect)

Maybe, but it's debatable, because no one knows 100% what might have been, or might not have been, with or without the "cause" of what might happen. Plus it's also a possibility that $6000 could have been the "bottom" too in my opinion.

[Bitcoinaire]

It's hard to say but $6,000 could've been the bottom if it wasn't for Kobyashi dumping the GOX coins on the open market as opposed to doing it OTC through Kraken and the hash wars.

[exstasie]

After 50 votes, it's a pretty close call. 52% say we haven't hit the bottom; 48% say we have. I voted no.

Anyone else? 5 days of voting left.

[gentlemand]

It's hard to say but $6,000 could've been the bottom if it wasn't for Kobyashi dumping the GOX coins on the open market as opposed to doing it OTC through Kraken and the hash wars.

The only detail that's popped up is that money moved from that Bitpoint place to Mr Thingy's coffers.

I've never heard of Bitpoint before and can find no mention of it or its volume on any Coinmarketcap-esque sites.

It's possible they were contracted to handle some sort of OTC sale. If he wanted to do a market sale it looks like the least likely option for someone in Japan.

[BitHodler]

It's hard to say but $6,000 could've been the bottom if it wasn't for Kobyashi dumping the GOX coins on the open market as opposed to doing it OTC through Kraken and the hash wars.

If that was the case, the market would have rebounded in a more convincing manner, but it didn't. It was likely too tempting for whales to open massive shorts, trigger stops below $6000 and count profits.

$6000 was hyped up badly, where people, even a number of legendary members here believed that $6000 was the bottom because of how miners need that level to not lose money. In other words, a break-even point.

We have clearly seen that the hashrate dropped and the difficulty as result of that as well. I am sure that at $6000 large farms were still 50% in profits. It was the media that hyped it up....

[greensheep]

I hope the bottom is in, but we could actually still go lower, there is no way of being sure...
There is not a lot of buying activity --> if you are buying now 1 BTC is still expensive compared to 2015
And selling at these prices, well who wants to sell at these prices really...

But comparing 2015 capitulation with current market conditions looks wrong to me, it's an entirely different market.

[Ararbermas]

Probably because since this bear trend occur and the valued nose dive around 3k the pattern of the market become very stagnant and had no progress until now. But for me i still have doubts on this circumstanc.e because there's always sudden fluctuation of the growth rate nowadays. which is in my view  perhaps  there's a tends again that it will make a small dump. .  I hope it will never go further if that times happen.  

[Muzika]

in this kind of market that the price are playing around 3400$ for a long period of time, I guess this is already the bottom of the bearish market but we dont know when we will experience again the bull market.

[gabmen]

in this kind of market that the price are playing around 3400$ for a long period of time, I guess this is already the bottom of the bearish market but we dont know when we will experience again the bull market.

Well it seems that people are divided as well pretty evenly based on the votes lol. The most recent low was at 3.1k and i think we have a fair chance of touching that again or even going sub 3k. But for me it's accumulation time anyways so regardless, it'll just provide good opportunity to buy in cheap for the long run.

[samson]

December 15th, 2018 was the bottom of this one.....so far.

 

[AmoreJaz]

in this kind of market that the price are playing around 3400$ for a long period of time, I guess this is already the bottom of the bearish market but we dont know when we will experience again the bull market.

we cant exactly tell when will we gonna hit the bottom.
the game is not over yet. though we are in the green market for the past few hours, its not enough to conclude that we are out of the dip

[Herbert2020]

in this kind of market that the price are playing around 3400$ for a long period of time, I guess this is already the bottom of the bearish market but we dont know when we will experience again the bull market.

we cant exactly tell when will we gonna hit the bottom.
the game is not over yet. though we are in the green market for the past few hours, its not enough to conclude that we are out of the dip

true, but the recent surge proved once again that asking this types of questions to get the feeling of what investors are thinking is always going to give you false information. investors in bitcoin market are always either greedy or panicking and they change their direction in a blinking of an eye if they see the market moving in a different direction.
in this surge we saw a very small example of how the FOMO buy is going to look like so it doesn't matter if they think we haven't hit the bottom, as soon as the rise begins they do a FOMO and price can shoot up to $10k!!!

[davis196]

27 people voted "yes" and 28(including me) voted "no".
I guess that nobody knows what will happen with the market.The bottom is coming on the horizon,but the ATH will come again(after 2 or maybe 3 years).

[deisik]

in this surge we saw a very small example of how the FOMO buy is going to look like so it doesn't matter if they think we haven't hit the bottom, as soon as the rise begins they do a FOMO and price can shoot up to $10k!!!

That's not necessarily so

And while it certainly sounds plausible, if we take a closer look at bigger timeframes, it doesn't always work like that (it may not even look like that in the recent surge). For example, if people have been suffering heavy losses for long months (say, since January 2018), they may be inclined to sell at these surges and call it a day for good, not buy more. Maybe, this is the next step in the development of a typical long-term bagholder who is so tired of waiting that he doesn't care anymore and wants to drop his bags at the next stop, so to speak