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Author Topic: Italy already in recesion  (Read 367 times)
Febo
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February 02, 2019, 06:50:21 PM
 #1

New GDP figures show that Italy's economy shrank by 0.2% in the final three months of 2018, a worse result than expected. That follows a 0.1% contraction in July-September, meaning Italy is now officially in a technical recession.

Are we at a brink of new economic crisis?

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February 02, 2019, 08:10:28 PM
 #2

Italy has been in trouble for many years along with Portugal, Greece, and Spain. They are dragging down the EU and are in need of a bail out. The EU will not be able to bail everyone out so they will have to turn to something else like Bitcoin to help them

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February 02, 2019, 08:14:14 PM
 #3

It was predictable, the Italian economy hasn't found its right path since the 2008 crisis. I believe this is the second recession since 2008. Instead of fighting to find out who the culprit is, they should find a solution to find the billions they need instead to take it from the reforms budget. Because the people who will suffer are again the citizens.

Quote
they will have to turn to something else like Bitcoin to help them
When you have no money, you have no money no matter if it's EUR-USD-BTC-Potatoes-Apple-Rice or anything else. You can print money but not bitcoins

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February 02, 2019, 08:17:49 PM
 #4

It was predictable, the Italian economy hasn't found its right path since the 2008 crisis. I believe this is the second recession since 2008. Instead of fighting to find out who the culprit is, they should find a solution to find the billions they need instead to take it from the reforms budget. Because the people who will suffer are again the citizens.
Of course they should, but not the fact that they will. As you know, the government has its own views on this. And by the way, it is possible that investments and the introduction of the blockchain could contribute to the changes in their economy.
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February 02, 2019, 08:23:35 PM
 #5

It was predictable
Absolutely. Italian debt is currently sitting at an astronomical 131% of GDP, with an incompetent government.

With even Germany facing a recession, the Eurozone is on the brink. China's growth is slowing. UK is facing a no-deal Brexit. US can't keep their government open. We are facing another global recession.

How do I short the world?

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February 02, 2019, 08:42:45 PM
 #6

None of them are prepared to do the correct thing which is reduce debt and the cost of government.   Problem for Italy is its in the EURO which means they dont really have control over their own monetary policy in order to properly assess all aspects.    The focus on UK is really overplayed as EU in any case needs to deal with its issues and UK was not in EURO since the ERM anyway, in that case UK was forced out from lack of support from other EU members and it might be the same for Italy now.

   Leaving ERM was mostly automatic where as I suppose Italy is tied to EURO and has to make a hard decision to recognise they will do better outside, that seems unlikely until the situation deteriorates further and becomes more obvious

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February 02, 2019, 09:47:32 PM
 #7

It was predictable
Absolutely. Italian debt is currently sitting at an astronomical 131% of GDP, with an incompetent government.

With even Germany facing a recession, the Eurozone is on the brink. China's growth is slowing. UK is facing a no-deal Brexit. US can't keep their government open. We are facing another global recession.

How do I short the world?
I read in the newspaper that Italy was the only European country in recession and Germany avoided it despite their situation.

Now thinking about it, it remembers me the buzz about The Economist cover in January, which, following people opinion, was a subliminal message for a dark year in 2019.


Illuminati confirmed!  Shocked

Quote
This is the cover of The Economist magazine (owned by the Rothschild and Agnelli families) for 2019. TOUT NOIR 😉

It confirms what Corey Goode said a few months ago: "I was told that the Elite expected the last "solar sneeze" to occur at the end of this solar minimum period (2018/2019 according to their estimates)".

I recall that their 1988 coverage (they expected this minimum/solar event around 2018) announced the end of the dollar as the world reserve currency around 2018 for a new single global currency (via IMF SDRs).

But the cycles (on average 11.2 years) are not perfect.

They are destroying the current financial system in a controlled way according to this solar event (which will put all our technology) which in turn adjusts to this demolition (everything is connected, everything is consciousness, everything is One).

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February 02, 2019, 09:59:10 PM
 #8

How do I short the world?
If my memory serves me correctly (and it may not), I recall reading a book about Jesse Livermore who was a legendary stock trader from almost 100 years ago, and he found a way to do almost exactly that.  He saw a huge recession coming and shorted a wide variety of stocks.  I don't know if you can short index funds, but you could probably make a ton of money doing so.  I've never played around with the options market, but I think that's another way you could do it--all those derivatives you can trade are basically ways to gamble on the future of pretty much anything and everything.

When you have no money, you have no money no matter if it's EUR-USD-BTC-Potatoes-Apple-Rice or anything else. You can print money but not bitcoins
That's true, no doubt.  But I don't think Italy or any other country in financial trouble is looking for crypto as a solution--but for us as individuals living under the rule of financially irresponsible governments, it may provide some sort of means of protecting what wealth we have.

I've also noticed gold & silver have increased quite a bit in the last week.  That's usually not a great sign that things are going well, and I definitely get the feeling that we're starting to see cracks in the system.  I'm just hoping that whatever comes isn't another Great Depression or worse...but that could happen, easily.

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February 02, 2019, 10:24:53 PM
 #9

New GDP figures show that Italy's economy shrank by 0.2% in the final three months of 2018, a worse result than expected. That follows a 0.1% contraction in July-September, meaning Italy is now officially in a technical recession.

Are we at a brink of new economic crisis?

People often panic because of come news that's negative enough to be caused. I don't think we are at the brink of economic crisis just because of economic shrank of one country.

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February 02, 2019, 11:11:31 PM
 #10

Livermoore went broke several times also though, child genius tortured by success but also failure.    Problem with that short is it has a counter-party, you rely on essentially a kind of debt to be paid on delivery.  Same with lots of these instruments, they need banks not to fall apart.    Now governments needs banks also to survive because the debt system is continually relying on the turn over short term of trillions.

The obvious answer would be gold then.   I'm not saying this wishing that it be true but its not a value that relies on politics or any one country or set of business to exist.    There is some parallel to the decentralisation of crypto in that but they arent so close imo and theres no way in hell BTC or anything will replace gold or any commodity you can think of.   Arguably BTC is very good short term cash, long term I think its best for spare or profits not your pension :p

Quote
announced the end of the dollar as the world reserve currency around 2018 for a new single global currency (via IMF SDRs).

I dont imagine it happens all at once.     Sterling was primary world reserve currency and a hundred years after it stumbled, its still actually kept in reserve globally by a variety of nations however only to a proportion under 10% maybe 5% by now for all I know but it is still around internationally in many trade contracts outside UK so thats partially global currency.   I guess Dollar could continue for decades even while declining and not especially retaining value, the world wont switch to SDR or any other alternative that fast.

The nature of SDR is like EURO afaik, so SDR contains dollars anyway.   I can only see a jump to SDR if US volunteered it

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February 02, 2019, 11:36:37 PM
 #11

I don't think we are at the brink of economic crisis just because of economic shrank of one country.
The economy shrank in several countries. Italy has just been the first A) to release numbers and B) where it shrank enough to be termed a recession (i.e. 2 simultaneous negative quarters).

Germany's GDP for Q3 last year was -0.2%. They haven't released their figures for Q4 yet, but predictions are they have probably just avoided it at something like 0.05%. Certainly way lower than their previous forecasts. Italy is the world's 8th biggest economy and Germany is its 4th. China could well be in a recession already, but we don't know because they just make up fake numbers to make themselves look better than they are. They are the 2nd biggest economy. The UK (5th biggest economy) will almost certainly face a recession with a no deal Brexit, which is becoming more likely by the day. Some of the largest countries in the world are shrinking and are on the brink of recessions.

The World Bank recently cut their growth forecast for 2019. So did the IMF. And the UN.

I'm not saying we are definitely headed towards a global recession, but it seems more likely than not at the moment.

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February 02, 2019, 11:51:35 PM
 #12

Italy has been in trouble for many years along with Portugal, Greece, and Spain. They are dragging down the EU and are in need of a bail out. The EU will not be able to bail everyone out so they will have to turn to something else like Bitcoin to help them
Yes, those countries are really in trouble for years now so there’s no new about this one aside from adopting cryptocurrency as your great way to escape on that crisis. EU are really in trouble if more members enter into recession then the world economic crisis is possible. It will take more time before they recover again, bitcoin is a good substitue though.
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February 03, 2019, 12:12:56 AM
 #13

New GDP figures show that Italy's economy shrank by 0.2% in the final three months of 2018, a worse result than expected. That follows a 0.1% contraction in July-September, meaning Italy is now officially in a technical recession.

Are we at a brink of new economic crisis?

It's expected, Italy is one of the weakest economy in EU and at the same time one of the largest. Italian economy was hit badly in 2008 and now they are government by a populist social party, introducing a no-conditional income of 780 euro per month for all people without real estates.

Italy - huge debt (130%+), populist social government, spending like a crazy == recession. I think the situation could be in Bitcoin favor.

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February 03, 2019, 10:30:03 AM
 #14

introducing a no-conditional income of 780 euro per month for all people without real estates.
That's just not true. There are many conditions.

You have to have been resident in Italy for 10 years. Your household (not individual) income must be below €9,360 before you start being awarded anything. The maximum you can receive is €780 if you are living alone and have no income whatsoever. If you are not signed up with a job center and actively seeking work, you don't get the money. If you refuse job offers, you don't get the money.

This is simply an unemployment allowance, which many countries have. It is nothing remotely like a "no-conditional income" as you suggest.

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February 03, 2019, 12:04:04 PM
 #15

How do I short the world?
If my memory serves me correctly (and it may not), I recall reading a book about Jesse Livermore who was a legendary stock trader from almost 100 years ago, and he found a way to do almost exactly that.  He saw a huge recession coming and shorted a wide variety of stocks.  I don't know if you can short index funds, but you could probably make a ton of money doing so.

i've been watching permabears trying to short the stock market for years---such a dangerous game. many trading accounts have been destroyed trying to front run the next 2008. if you wanna try your luck, i suggest the proshares 3x short s&p500 ETF (SPXU) for maximum exposure. Wink

the fact that everyone sees a global recession coming right now tells me it's not happening yet. especially after that v-shaped recovery in stocks. i think people are jumping the gun by a couple years.

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February 03, 2019, 01:12:09 PM
 #16

introducing a no-conditional income of 780 euro per month for all people without real estates.
That's just not true. There are many conditions.

You have to have been resident in Italy for 10 years. Your household (not individual) income must be below €9,360 before you start being awarded anything. The maximum you can receive is €780 if you are living alone and have no income whatsoever. If you are not signed up with a job center and actively seeking work, you don't get the money. If you refuse job offers, you don't get the money.

This is simply an unemployment allowance, which many countries have. It is nothing remotely like a "no-conditional income" as you suggest.

Yeah, you're right. What the Italian government is doing it is a support to unemployment, which is conditional to job search and very strict conditions, not money given to those who do not want to do anything. A kind of help that most of the developed countries already have.

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February 03, 2019, 04:24:10 PM
 #17

the fact that everyone sees a global recession coming right now tells me it's not happening yet. especially after that v-shaped recovery in stocks. i think people are jumping the gun by a couple years.

this is also what i think.
i believe most of the scary stuff about recession we see nowadays is mostly the fear that the 2008 recession created in the minds of everyone and since it is so recent people still see it on every corner.

the real recession however is not something that you would read about that easily. it will be kept silent until the insiders get out or at least make some plans and preparations. then it will break out and go viral overnight.

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February 03, 2019, 05:00:32 PM
 #18

The problem is that when a country has no product that it sells overseas for a lot of profit its usually stuck with the people inside and the changing of money from same person to same person. All countries need money from other countries to get by and some countries think that a bail out is a solution and they need to get help from other countries to get out of this but that is just one off help which won't solve the issue for a long period of time, it will return back being a bad situation when that money is finished.

Hence, Italy just needs products that they can sell to other countries to make a lot of money, think of apple where apple sells to whole world and brings in money to USA and pay a lot of taxes. Same applies to Italy, maybe not something as big as Apple of course but something at a more possible level where they sell something to whole world and bring in profits back to Italy will fix this issue.


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February 04, 2019, 01:11:55 AM
 #19

^^  That last point relates to exchange rates, incoming money for domestic production sold abroad has far more worth in an economy with a floating exchange rate.    The super obvious example of how this is out of balance would be Greece, all those beautiful islands and they could have so much money coming in from tourism for sure.   China took an interest in a dock and the shipping side of things.   Problem is Greece is handcuffed to the same rate as Germany and I dont think it fits.    The rigid control on that exchange, also interest rates and all sorts of thing is part of what is causing the failure.   Italy I think is similar in suffering from poorly adjusted economic management, the whole of europe sharing the euro is not a good fit

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biskitop
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February 16, 2019, 12:26:36 AM
 #20

it could be, Venezuela yesterday, now Italy. and there are still many countries that are experiencing a crisis. I think this is not the impact of America vs. North Korea that triggered World War 3. It never happened in modern times.
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