UFC on ESPN 1: Ngannou vs Velasquez Prediction and Info Thread

[tokeweed]

Date: Sunday, February 17
Preliminary Card (ESPN+): 22:30 BCT / 2:30pm PST / 5:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (ESPN): 00:00 BCT / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Main Card (ESPN): 2:00 BCT / 6pm PST / 9pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.fìrstrow.eu/




Main Card (ESPN)

Francis Ngannou (12-3) vs. Cain Velasquez (14-2) (Heavyweight)
James Vick (13-2) vs. Paul Felder (15-4) (Lightweight)
Cortney Casey (8-6) vs. Cynthia Calvillo (7-1) (Women's Strawweight)
Alex Caceres (14-11) vs. Kron Gracie (4-0) (Featherweight)
Vicente Luque (14-6-1) vs. Bryan Barberena (14-5) (Welterweight)
Andre Fili (18-6) vs. Myles Jury (17-3) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (ESPN)

Jimmie Rivera (22-2) vs. Aljamain Sterling (16-3) (Bantamweight)
Benito Lopez (9-0) vs. Manny Bermudez (13-0) (Bantamweight)
Ashlee Evans-Smith (6-3) vs. Andrea Lee (9-2) (Women's Flyweight)   
Scott Holtzman (12-2) vs. Nik Lentz (29-9-2) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (ESPN+)

Renan Barao (34-7) vs. Luke Sanders (12-3) (Bantamweight)
Jessica Penne (12-5) vs. Jodie Esquibel (6-4) (Women's Strawweight)   
Aleksandra Albu (3-0) vs. Emily Whitmire (3-2) (Women's Strawweight)

[TravelMug]

Interesting to see Barao's name on the list. He went 2-5 after the lost to TJ Dillashaw 5 years ago and it looks like he is already past his prime.

Cain Velasquez is one of my favorite fighter and I do hope that he beat Francis Ngannou so that he can gain his confidence back. Although there is the question of ring rust and Francis explosive power, but if Cain can stay and get past the first round and Francis get tired after that and Cain uses his wrestling skills then Cain's takes it.

[Betwrong]

This is going to be a very interesting fight. They're both great heavyweight fighters, but in different ways. Ngannou is very good with his upper-cuts and fast knockouts, but, in my opinion, he quickly loses his energy, in case his attacks were ineffective. Velasquez, on the contrary, may appear in a 3rd round like he's only starting to fight. They say about Cain Velasquez that he has superhuman endurance, and rightly so.

In short, if Ngannou will not win via knockout in the 1st round, I think there are big chances of him losing to Velasquez later.

[gabmen]

Well hopefully i see another cain like the brock lesnar fight. Ngannou's striking should be his advantage but i think cain is one of the most well rounded heavyweights ever to enter the octagon. Though it's a question if he can be the old cain since i'm seeing seasoned vets get beaten quite often recently.

[eaLiTy]

Interesting to see Barao's name on the list. He went 2-5 after the lost to TJ Dillashaw 5 years ago and it looks like he is already past his prime.

Cain Velasquez is one of my favorite fighter and I do hope that he beat Francis Ngannou so that he can gain his confidence back. Although there is the question of ring rust and Francis explosive power, but if Cain can stay and get past the first round and Francis get tired after that and Cain uses his wrestling skills then Cain's takes it.

Barao was once considered the pound for pound king as he was unstoppable and one loss and most importantly the introduction of USADA was during that time and we have seen many fighters going down the drains after that.   Velasquez is fighting after a long time and i am sure after the fight with Ngannou he will take a couple of years off to heal his injuries.  

In short, if Ngannou will not win via knockout in the 1st round, I think there are big chances of him losing to Velasquez later.

If that happens i really think that Velasquez will retire from the sports as he will not be able to walk if he gets injured like that.

[kenzawak]

I'm French but I'll be rooting for Velasquez who's clearly a better fighter. I just hope he's back for good, it could really make things interesting in the heavies.
I have nothing against Ngannou but he needs a reality check, he's far from being one of the top fighters and has to work a lot more. He's like many heavyweights, he lacks endurance and is not complete enough.

[NavI_027]

Well hopefully i see another cain like the brock lesnar fight. Ngannou's striking should be his advantage but i think cain is one of the most well rounded heavyweights ever to enter the octagon. Though it's a question if he can be the old cain since i'm seeing seasoned vets get beaten quite often recently.

Yes baby Yes! I'm hoping for the same thing as well . I want a bloody and brutal 5 round fight from them, I already get bored in "one shot, one kill" type of fights. However, I don't think they would maintain the energy 'til the end simply because Ngannou is not a fighter that could last long and Velasques on the other hand got a very long break so I guess his body is not the same as before.

Nonetheless, I'm still very excited for their fight. They got their own strengths so it's very hard to predict who's gonna win but I'm a Velasquez fan so I'll go for him.

[nydiacaskey01]

From 2008 to 2010, Cain Velasquez is unstoppable, from Kongo, Noguiera to Lesnar, he beat them all until he faced Dos Santos in 2011 and it took 1 year to get back to Dos Santos and claim a win. He beat Dos Santos twice. However, Cain Velasquez has been out of the octagon since 2016. His last fight with Browne ended in a 1st round TKO. I don't know if he is still as dangerous as he is back when he is unstoppable 2008 to 2010 and last 2016. He should have  at least 1 or 2 fights ahead of this big event to condition his body after a 2 years of sabbatical.

[bbc.reporter]

Agreed that Cain is the best heavyweight, however he has been out of the octagon for 2 years. How would we know that he would be the same Cain Velasquez? Also, he has been suffering with reoccuring injuries in all of his career in the UFC.

[Yaunfitda]

Agreed that Cain is the best heavyweight, however he has been out of the octagon for 2 years. How would we know that he would be the same Cain Velasquez? Also, he has been suffering with reoccuring injuries in all of his career in the UFC.

That is correct, he used to be the best heavyweight, but injuries has taken its toll on his body and I think it's more of a mental game for Cain here. Perhaps he has healed already physically, but I'm sure there are lot of questions and doubts on his mind prior to the fight.

But as fans we wanted him to return and reclaim the belt, but I seriously doubt that after being out for two years, he will still be the same Cain Velasquez that we used to know.

[lemipawa]

That is correct, he used to be the best heavyweight, but injuries has taken its toll on his body and I think it's more of a mental game for Cain here. Perhaps he has healed already physically, but I'm sure there are lot of questions and doubts on his mind prior to the fight.

But as fans we wanted him to return and reclaim the belt, but I seriously doubt that after being out for two years, he will still be the same Cain Velasquez that we used to know.

He is not going to be the same. Aside from injuries and having a 2 year of hiatus, age will play a role here as well. Francis Ngannou is 4 years younger than Cain Velasquez. The last fight of Francis Ngannou is just last November 2018. That means Francis Ngannou is coming out fresh from a recent victory but this fight is not going to be a walk in the park for both fighters.

[btc_angela]

Interesting to see Barao's name on the list. He went 2-5 after the lost to TJ Dillashaw 5 years ago and it looks like he is already past his prime.

Cain Velasquez is one of my favorite fighter and I do hope that he beat Francis Ngannou so that he can gain his confidence back. Although there is the question of ring rust and Francis explosive power, but if Cain can stay and get past the first round and Francis get tired after that and Cain uses his wrestling skills then Cain's takes it.

Barao was once considered the pound for pound king as he was unstoppable and one loss and most importantly the introduction of USADA was during that time and we have seen many fighters going down the drains after that.   Velasquez is fighting after a long time and i am sure after the fight with Ngannou he will take a couple of years off to heal his injuries.  

Not only Barao but most of the notable Brazilian like Anderson and Wanderlai Silva. 

Yes, it's going to be interesting to see how Cain will be on his comeback fight. He is out for like two years and Francis is not a push over fighter, so this is a dangerous fight for him. I'm sure he is the sentimental favourites to win, but I wouldn't be surprised if Ngannou pulls a sort of upset here.

[tokeweed]

Watch this vid.  Vintage Velasquez vs big Nog...  Watch how quick Velasquez is.  I mean even if he isn't that good anymore but still that quick?  Ngannou is in trouble.  Big trouble.

And Velasquez prolly still has the cardio to last the whole 5 rounds.  Ngannou really doesn't.

UFC Phoenix Free Fight:  Cain Velasquez vs Minotauro Nogueira
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7F3jlvGXEE

[Fredomago]

Agreed that Cain is the best heavyweight, however he has been out of the octagon for 2 years. How would we know that he would be the same Cain Velasquez? Also, he has been suffering with reoccuring injuries in all of his career in the UFC.

That is correct, he used to be the best heavyweight, but injuries has taken its toll on his body and I think it's more of a mental game for Cain here. Perhaps he has healed already physically, but I'm sure there are lot of questions and doubts on his mind prior to the fight.

But as fans we wanted him to return and reclaim the belt, but I seriously doubt that after being out for two years, he will still be the same Cain Velasquez that we used to know.

We will never know until the game is over, Cain comeback give fans hope for regaining his title we ain't sure how well he's condition right now, but a fighter always have a heart and lust to win not unless there's other things inside his minds and the focus is not that much, but also I'm  eyeing for his win.

[Betwrong]

~
And Velasquez prolly still has the cardio to last the whole 5 rounds.  Ngannou really doesn't.
~

Those are my thoughts too. Velasquez can definitely do better in the long run. But I think we have to keep in mind that Ngannou has the hardest punch ever recorded

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6dblwcTi3Q

And those are not just some units. We can see from watching his fights that he's able to knock out his opponent with a single punch.

My prediction is, if Velasquez will manage to evade Ngannou's punches during the first couple of rounds, he'll win the fight.

[Theb]

Let's not forget that Francis Ngannou knock the hell out of Alistair Overeem's chin with his uppercut in the first two minutes of the first round. All of his wins are either via KO or submission during the first or second round and all his losses came from UDs which means that this guy is really a hunter and he would do whatever is takes to finish the fight early. I don't think that Cain Velasquez could handle him pretty well specially that he is coming out from retirement,  we really don't know what his fight conditions are if he has the stamina to keep up with Ngannou.

[mich]

Hopefully cAIN doesnt get injured before this fight.  Hes been out 1.5 years so dont know his shape.

https://twitter.com/MMAFighting/status/1095460882983743488
Remember when Dana White compared Francis Ngannou's punching power to being hit by a Ford Escort? @cainmma wasn't impressed…
"Ford Escorts suck. They're weak."

[bbc.reporter]

~
And Velasquez prolly still has the cardio to last the whole 5 rounds.  Ngannou really doesn't.
~

Those are my thoughts too. Velasquez can definitely do better in the long run. But I think we have to keep in mind that Ngannou has the hardest punch ever recorded

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6dblwcTi3Q

And those are not just some units. We can see from watching his fights that he's able to knock out his opponent with a single punch.

My prediction is, if Velasquez will manage to evade Ngannou's punches during the first couple of rounds, he'll win the fight.

Agreed. However, it might be better to assume that Francis Ngannou can or will also connect his punches in the 1st and 2nd rounds. The problem would now be how strong is Cain's chin?

Also, we do not know what kind of Cain is going inside the octagon. It might be the weak and rusty model hehehe.

[lemipawa]

Francis Ngannou may have won his last fight with Blaydes via TKO last November 2018 but looking at his last 2 fights before that he lost via decision to lewis and Miocic. This makes me think that he is the kind of fighter who needs to finish his opponent or else he might loose  if it with be judged by 3 guys outside the octagon. His last fight with Miocic, he is out numbered in terms of strikes, out of 262 puches thrown, only 26% landed while Miocic made 488 punches and landed 82% of them.

[tomahawk9]

Francis Ngannou may have won his last fight with Blaydes via TKO last November 2018 but looking at his last 2 fights before that he lost via decision to lewis and Miocic. This makes me think that he is the kind of fighter who needs to finish his opponent or else he might loose

Yeah, Velasquez, with his insane cardio, might just try to wear out Ngannou (just like Miocic), avoid any action in the first few rounds, and then to go for the takedown in the later rounds.

His last fight with Miocic, he is out numbered in terms of strikes, out of 262 puches thrown, only 26% landed while Miocic made 488 punches and landed 82% of them.

I'm kinda expecting the exact same outcome next sunday (if everything goes well for Cain), but I still feel a bit of uncertainty because we simply don't know how 'rusty' Velasquez is right now