...
a lot depends on two things will you get attacked by a bad player?
if you do get attacked you will be tapped out.
Nope, it's simple statistics what to expect, nothing to do with gut feelings or guesses.
Read Meni's report.
https://bitcoil.co.il/pool_analysis.pdfIf you can't understand it, there's no point giving an opinion on the subject.
All withholding does is make PPS worse.
Avoiding withholding does not make the statistics magically invalid.
@ hagssfin. I understand it.
Problem is math Kano gave was deceptive. And he implied I did not understand it.
At 240 ph he needs a practical reserve of more then 140 coins as I explained.
Where does this bullshit 140 come from?
Seriously can't you just put the simple numbers into the equation on the other page?
...
So in a magical world of zero withholding attacks 4300 coins. Would give hive a 999 out of 1000 chance
Of going bust.
I don’t really care about the op having a reserve that big. As a 999/1000 safety factor is more then enough.
I would argue I would mine with this pool if he had enough coins to make the safety factor 199/200
As he pays 100% of 12.5
And via btc pays 97% of 12.5
I resent Kano tossing out the number he did and then acting that he is smart and I don’t understand the math. And that I am not entitled to have an opinion on the thread.
SO ... did you try the: VERY SIMPLE to calculate, and very bad suggestion of, a 1% chance of failure?
OBVIOUSLY not.
I also think I would like to see Kano calculate
For 1/1000
For 1/500
For 1/200
For 1/100.
See, I do realise why this doesn't matter, but to make you look even more stupid I'll do the calculations
We already know 1/1000 that I used the same number that Meni used - that produces that number in the middle ln(1/δ) = ln (1/0.001) = "6.9078"
Then the equation is (as already stated) 12.5 x 6.9078 / (2 x 0.01) =
4317.375 BTCBut what the heck, lets jump to the bottom of your list and go for a ridiculously risky pool with a 1% chance of going bankrupt.
ln(1/δ) = ln(1/0.01) = 4.6052
HOLD YOUR HORSES! that's not much less than "6.9078" (yes I did realise this)
So what do we get for the BTC required?
12.5 x 4.6052 / (2 x 0.01) =
2878 BTCNo doubt the pool doesn't have
2878 BTC in it's wallet either.
But what the hey, I'll do a quick table of all 4 numbers:
1/1000
4317.375 BTC1/500
3884 BTC1/200
3311 BTC1/100
2878 BTCYeah I don't see anything as tiny as 140 BTC ANYWHERE in that
I do see a bit more than
20 times that if the pool is going down the path of a high 1% chance of going bankrupt ...
Don't you hate non-linear maths?