The Perfect Storm of Bitcoin Birth

[figmentofmyass]

sad but true---check out the speculation board. lots of guys in there have delusions about how wall street works. they think it'll be a mad dash to buy up all our bags lol! i've tried many times to talk about the effects of paper bitcoins and rehypothecation but it all seems to fall on deaf ears.

I don't think the world us ready for Bitcoin. But that's cool because I don't think Bitcoin is ready for he world either.
Simply put, Bitcoin doesn't scale. LN and  Segwit greatly increased the scaling. And block size will likely increase in the future. Maybe even block frequency too?

i'm pretty sure the question of increasing block frequency was put to rest years ago. it would increase transaction throughput, but at the cost of increasing orphaning rates and increasing the inflation rate. i think bitcoin's inflation curve was faster than ideal to begin with. since fees need to eventually replace inflation, it would be better for inflation to taper off as gradually as possible, giving more time for adoption to take hold (so fee revenue increases)

[cellard]

The manipulation of easy money against hard money (Bitcoin, gold) doesn't last forever. For how long can they keep pushing the price down? we don't know, but such manipulation doesn't last forever. The demand for Bitcoin isn't going to magically stop, and the amount of Bitcoin is strictly limited. There's enough Bitcoin for everyone, it's just a function of price.

Manipulation is all relative and is something that largely only happens between people's ears. Bitcoin isn't being manipulated down, it's just the speculative nature of this market doing it.

If there was manipulation, then it happens to the up side as well, so if the mad bull run that happened in 2017 was manipulation, we haven't seen anyone complain about that, because people then made money, not lose it.

What I noticed is that while a lot people blindly assume that this market is heavily rigged, no one can actually provide the evidence to back up their claims. Overall, people believe what they want to believe....

Well the evidence we have is that every time the SEC or whoever is involved in order to approve futures did so, the asset which got futures got trashed into the ground. Look at metals and other assets, they got shorted badly.

There's also the MtGox whale which is following orders, and apparently started dumping to keep the price down.

Anyone that isn't adding manipulation into the equation and believes everything is organic is as deluded as those that think it's 100% manipulation with no input from independent market participants. It's always a mix of both. And if we have to consider what is on the interest of the US Government, then that is to either kill Bitcoin or accumulate fucktons and I believe it's the second since that's why they allowed futures on the first place (and why they will allow ETFs to pump it into trillions)

[1Referee]

Manipulation is all relative and is something that largely only happens between people's ears. Bitcoin isn't being manipulated down, it's just the speculative nature of this market doing it.

I think so too. Another factor to take into consideration is that a large part of the support on the buy side gets withdrawn when charts indicate a downtrend. If one or more large accounts try to liquidate their holdings, they have no choice but to take a hit and accept that slippage can't be avoided when using spot exchanges.

In that regard, it's a good thing that more exchanges start to dig into OTC trading. Instead of large accounts dumping the spot market down, they can get matched to an off-exchange buyer and settle the transaction there. The fee the exchange takes is well below that what large accounts would lose anyway due to the crazy slippage.

[Pepe Lapiu]

Well the evidence we have is that every time the SEC or whoever is involved in order to approve futures did so, the asset which got futures got trashed into the ground. Look at metals and other assets, they got shorted badly.

Exactly!
The problem here is that some people think government legislation is going to legitimize Bitcoin. It's not. It's going to legitimize paper coin, and nothing else.

The only people who can be fooled by paper coin are those who are so wrapped up in statism that they will think paper coin is legitimate if it's government regulated.

We have two basic forces fighting against us within the community: statism and bias confirmation.
Statism is the belief that any legislation is going to promote Bitcoin with the the idea that government can do no wrong and wouldn't deliberately destroy something good.
And bias confirmation is when someone holds Bitcoin and he is so desperately wanting it to increase in value that he will seek information to promote his hopes. He will even bend the information to suit his desired outcome.

We all understand that Bitcoin is the solution to fiat money which is corrupt and dishonest. But fiat money is within the powers of government and banks. It would be foolish to believe any type of behavior from government and banks can be beneficia to Bitcoin.

I can't stop government from trying to legislate it and I can't stop banks and Wall Street from making and selling paper coin. But I'm not going to fool myself into thinking they are going to do any good to the price of coin just because it suits me as a coin holder.

[Pepe Lapiu]

sad but true---check out the speculation board. lots of guys in there have delusions about how wall street works. they think it'll be a mad dash to buy up all our bags lol! i've tried many times to talk about the effects of paper bitcoins and rehypothecation but it all seems to fall on deaf ears.

Some guys are so desperate to believe Bitcoin is going to make them rich that they desperately will cling to the idea that anything Wall Street and legislation will do will increase the price. It's a mix of statism and bias confirmation.  

i'm pretty sure the question of increasing block frequency was put to rest years ago. it would increase transaction throughput, but at the cost of increasing orphaning rates and increasing the inflation rate.

Increasing block frequency doesn't have to result in inflation. We can have a block every 5 minutes with 1 Bitcoin reward instead of a block every 10 minutes with 2 Bitcoin reward. I think it's absurd to think Bitcoin is forever going to remain with the 2008 technology when data transfer, data storage, and computing power are all increasing drastically over time.

When everyone is eventually walking around with a phone that has 1000 TB of storage and a download rate of a 1 GB/second, it will sound absurd to use 1 MB blocks every 10 minutes. When that will happen is a different story.

I do know that not 25 years ago it was unthinkable to send an email with a picture attached. That would have melted the entire internet. The capacities we will have in 10 years are difficult to imagine today.

Everyone raves about 4G data for their phone. What will 20G be like?

[Pepe Lapiu]

Governments will do what governments do, and that is to regulate, and to create derivative tricks such as Futures in order to profit from anything that attracts enough volume for them to bother, but this is all irrelevant for Bitcoin as it works as intended regardless of what government jurisdictions have to say about it, the blockchain keeps churning out blocks every 10 minutes incessantly, and this fact is undervalued.

I'm afraid you grossly underestimate the devastating effects of rehypotecation and fractional reserve banking (a.k.a. paper coin in out case).

Let's say that tomorrow an other 10 people decide to join us and invest in Bitcoin.
Let's say that paper Bitcoin is widely available and regulated/legislated/backed by government.
Of course neither you nor me with buy that shit.
But new investors into Bitcoin might.
And in fact most gold investors buy paper gold, not physical gold. So it would be hard to believe most people wouldn't jump on paper Bitcoin like rabid dogs.

And even if only half of the new investors are stirred towards paper coin, that still has a drastic effect on the price of Bitcoin.

I know you keep thinking that Bitcoin can't be printed into inflation, can't be faked, can't be multiplied at will. But all the exact sane can be said of gold. And yet it doesn't stop most people from buying paper instead of actual gold.

Neither you nor me want that, people rushing to buy paper coin. But that's exactly what wall steert/banks/gubermint would do to Bitcoin. Believe you me, Wall Street is not interested in pouring billions into Bitcoin. All that they want to.do is promote derivative vehicles for their profit.
 
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[el kaka22]

Paper bitcoin could get attention in the long run if you work on it and promote it well enough but there is already a non-paper bitcoin around that we can use however we want without the legal loopholes that riches use to manipulate the regular traditional money.

So, with your logic yes new people can fall over heels for paper bitcoin but also at the same time we are not going anywhere anytime soon so we will not use it and we are smarter than them on what the benefits are for not using and what benefits are for using it and we know benefits of not using outweighs the benefits of using it so we will spread that knowledge to new people as well. Your logic can only be sustained if there were no more people who already know what the difference is, but we are not leaving so it can't happen anytime soon.

[Pepe Lapiu]

Paper bitcoin could get attention in the long run if you work on it and promote it well enough but there is already a non-paper bitcoin around that we can use however we want without the legal loopholes that riches use to manipulate the regular traditional money.

So, with your logic yes new people can fall over heels for paper bitcoin but also at the same time we are not going anywhere anytime soon so we will not use it and we are smarter than them on what the benefits are for not using and what benefits are for using it and we know benefits of not using outweighs the benefits of using it so we will spread that knowledge to new people as well. Your logic can only be sustained if there were no more people who already know what the difference is, but we are not leaving so it can't happen anytime soon.

Everything you just wrote can be applied precisely to gold. Yet none of that prevents regulations/Wall Street/banks from repressing the actual price of gold. So what makes you think Bitcoin is any different?

Don't get me wrong. I believe in Bitcoin. But I think it's going to be a tremendous upward battle to get an  honest Bitcoin to grow and become widespread. It's going to be an even harder battle if we refuse to understand that government/wall street/banks are the enemy of Bitcoin, not it's friend.

[jeromix]

Guys, in my other thread it became overwhelmingly obvious that the vast majority of people on this forum don't understand the true value of Bitcoin.

Wow...that's a bold f*cking statement.


Ok, so you state a lot of the obvious beginner stuff here. My only question, who from this community is asking for more regulation? No one here is asking for more regulation. Some of us are saying "regulation is OK" when promoted/required by governments. Those are two very different statements. We should absolutely fight regulation, we should realize that if bitcoin and cryptocurrency are to succeed they will have to coexist with the existing rule of law. As such, it would be OK for us to concede some regulation - like tax obligations - to allow governments to accept that cryptocurrency isn't bad, but is going to make payments and transactions and currency a much more equitable part of the every day life of all citizens.

Well I have read and seen some with users asking for regulations. Actually there are lot of it and those users are not just agreeing about regulations but they want too the implementation of it and should be done by government in every country to hold security on every money invested on cryptocurrency especially in an ICO project.

[Pepe Lapiu]

it is not a prediction or future telling. it is an observation based on current ongoing events and all the history that bitcoin had.

Past performance does not provide any indication of future performance.

you don't need a crystal ball to know it either you just have to take a good look around to see the growth is happening all around you while more people all around the world start dumping their fiat to get bitcoin in return.

What's going on here is that you are getting immersed in Bitcoin. So more people around you are using Bitcoin because you are surrounding yourself with bitcoin users. As an example, I am a gun owner and a hunter. I also surround myself with people who share my lifestyle. Based on my limited experience,  I could claim that most people own guns and hunt. But that would be misleading myself.

And anyhow, even if we are to accept that more people adopted Bitcoin n the past and more people are adoring Bitcoin now, none of this should be accepted as an acceptable prediction that more people will adopt Bitcoin in the future.

I do hope that more people turn to Bitcoin. And I do hope that Bitcoin gets accepted by PayPal and Amazon some day, even at my local coffee shop too. But my fear is that a large number if people will be turning to paper coin and b

[palle11]

Bitcoin will grow soon

The growth of Bitcoin depends on how many people adopt it in the future and how many people walk away from it in the future . And those desicions will be made based on events which have yet to happen. If you have a crystal ball that can read the mind of every person with a cell phone in the world, and a time machine that can predict every single future event, you can predict how fast Bitcoin will grow.

it is not a prediction or future telling. it is an observation based on current ongoing events and all the history that bitcoin had. you don't need a crystal ball to know it either you just have to take a good look around to see the growth is happening all around you while more people all around the world start dumping their fiat to get bitcoin in return.

The birth of bitcoin seem like blessing to the world. Just like every other innovation, it acceptance has gradually creeped into the system. Bitcoin has been met with some attacks just any other creation but it has kept surviving. And the growth is increasing.

[Pepe Lapiu]

Well I have read and seen some with users asking for regulations. Actually there are lot of it and those users are not just agreeing about regulations but they want too the implementation of it and should be done by government in every country to hold security on every money invested on cryptocurrency especially in an ICO project.

The main reason why they keep asking for more regulations is that they think government involvement and Wall Street involvement is going to bring Bitcoin into the mainstream and make them rich.

That is completely false, but that's what they believe.

There is also the statism aspect whereas every aspect of your life is regulated/taxed/legislated/standardized/licensed/permitted by government. And some people become completely incapable of imagining anything working out without government saying so.

[wahyu wida]

Bitcoin will grow soon

The growth of Bitcoin depends on how many people adopt it in the future and how many people walk away from it in the future . And those desicions will be made based on events which have yet to happen. If you have a crystal ball that can read the mind of every person with a cell phone in the world, and a time machine that can predict every single future event, you can predict how fast Bitcoin will grow.

it is not a prediction or future telling. it is an observation based on current ongoing events and all the history that bitcoin had. you don't need a crystal ball to know it either you just have to take a good look around to see the growth is happening all around you while more people all around the world start dumping their fiat to get bitcoin in return.

The birth of bitcoin seem like blessing to the world. Just like every other innovation, it acceptance has gradually creeped into the system. Bitcoin has been met with some attacks just any other creation but it has kept surviving. And the growth is increasing.

bitcoin seems to be a turning point for today's conventional system. with a decentralized system, making many people including the government shocked by its existence, because it can threaten the centralized system

[Stac]

In 2008 the world witnessed  the worst financial crisis .The depression of 1930's had left permanent scar with many having lost their jobs ,business and even lost their homes and it was a new uncertainty in the world of finance . Due to the banks irresponsibility of funds the 2008 crash was followed . The politicians and bankers showed no regret to the public so the public became desperate and the frustration reached its peak level . Shortly the white paper for  Bitcoin was posted by Satoshi Nakamoto a peer to peer electronic cash system and later on 2009 the bitcoin network became active with the first Bitcoin named genesis block .

[Lanatsa]

Bitcoin will grow soon

The growth of Bitcoin depends on how many people adopt it in the future and how many people walk away from it in the future . And those desicions will be made based on events which have yet to happen. If you have a crystal ball that can read the mind of every person with a cell phone in the world, and a time machine that can predict every single future event, you can predict how fast Bitcoin will grow.

it is not a prediction or future telling. it is an observation based on current ongoing events and all the history that bitcoin had. you don't need a crystal ball to know it either you just have to take a good look around to see the growth is happening all around you while more people all around the world start dumping their fiat to get bitcoin in return.

The birth of bitcoin seem like blessing to the world. Just like every other innovation, it acceptance has gradually creeped into the system. Bitcoin has been met with some attacks just any other creation but it has kept surviving. And the growth is increasing.

Not just a blessing but a real world innovation that it do contributes when it comes to payment system and on the side it do gives out money making opportunity.
We have seen as the years goes by with Bitcoins journey when it comes to attacks, lots of criticisms but until now it do still stands strong.We might not know on whats ahead with this
tech but we can already presume that this do have the potential.

[buwaytress]

I find some common ground in saying that it's okay, Bitcoin isn't ready for the world too.

And for me, it's not just about the technical aspects, either. Scaling's not even my contention, I always say scaling's the necessary and even welcome "problem" (wouldn't 99% of alts out there love to be forced to think of a scaling solution). Neither the supply algorithm, the price, the security aspects.

We probably underestimate how addicted we are on the old world and old money. We probably overestimate how ready we all are to control completely our own money, to understand self-determination.

We'll get there, and Bitcoin will. The birth's taken care of. Coming of age, maybe?