On whales and their impact

[coinplus]

No whales are not some "hidden" people like crazy conspiracy Illuminati thing people talk about. This is blockchain and you can follow every single move of every wallet that has a lot of money. It means people do see money moving into exchanges and money moving out of exchanges and calculate how it all goes down.

If you see 10 thousand bitcoins moving from unknown wallet to binance and than bitcoin price goes down you know what just happened, that is why we have whalealert twitter address and we check it everyday to make sure nothing huge going on. Just couple months ago we watched it live when Craig sold all his coins and turned them into fiat and paid for hash, these were all followable. I know privacy is something really care about but in blockchain everything is on the ledger.

[magneto]

Half of the threads in this board (i.e. Speculation) is about whales manipulating the market in one way or another. But do they really exist and what is their real impact? If you want to find out, stay with me

I think it can be assumed as an established fact that there's some kind of market rigging going on at any time, which makes room for speculations about rich dudes moving prices as they see fit. Just as there is little doubt that some market manipulation is actually happening (though it remains to be seen how much of any given price move is in fact caused by this manipulation), there is also little doubt that quite a bunch of people involved in cryptocurrencies are extremely rich. But are they really behind every price manipulation out there?

My take is that they are not. Of course, when they start to sell, the price goes down, and when they go on a buying spree, the price goes up, which is kind of self-explanatory. With that said though, I'm strongly inclined to think that much of the market manipulation we see these days is caused by cryptocurrency exchanges alone. Indeed, you could say that they are the whales in question but I have to disagree with this point of view as they don't own the funds of their traders (though they definitely use these funds to massage the prices to their advantage)

What's your take on this?

I tend to agree with you. People stress about what the whales are doing too much, and automatically assume that every single move within the market is caused by bitcoin holders.

Personally, I think that not only is it more likely that these big time stakeholders will not change the composition of their investment portfolio drastically in the short term, it is also absurd to assume that they are behind all the price action, especially when you consider that people can use leverage and derivatives to achieve the volumes that the so called "whales" have, if they buy/sell on the open market. A lot of the transactions are probably not even done on the open market, but rather on the OTC market, where it doesn't reflect openly on the price.

It's just lazy analysis in my opinion if one's just to explain a certain price movement because "a whale did it", or something along the lines of that. IMO, even just looking at the fundamentals and macro factors will do you more good than this.

[deisik]

an established fact? based on what exactly? the musings of random posters on the speculation board? i'd love to see the "proof" underlying this fact.

there is never going to be any kind of proof of manipulation in the market, if there were any then authorities would have already arrested manipulators since it is illegal to something like that!

As they say, if there is a will, there is a way

Many regular exchanges (like NYSE, CBOE, etc) had been caught cheating in the past. They were penalized, though it doesn't look like they abandoned their dirty tricks as they just went for more complicated stuff. And it would be extremely naive to suggest that things are somehow different in crypto. On the contrary, it is the unregulated nature of many cryptocurrency exchanges that allows them to easily get away with market manipulation. Really, if there is no regulation, what can authorities do?

all we have are signs and guesses. for example when price tries to rise and everyone is ready and the market volume is behind the rise but you suddenly see big walls be placed against the rise and big dumps in big chunks happening, that can not be anything but manipulation of whales.

by your definition, anyone placing orders on the book is a manipulator because they are blocking the price from moving the other direction. who is a manipulator and who is not? if you place a 500 BTC sell order at $10k because you think the price will drop, that means you're manipulating the market now?

The manipulation techniques are essentially the same as with any other tradable asset out there, and they have little to do with what you describe here (read, it is not about traders placing orders - whales or otherwise)

Just in case, insider trading is also illegal even though it is all about placing orders in the way you mean it

[The Cryptovator]

I'm strongly inclined to think that much of the market manipulation we see these days is caused by cryptocurrency exchanges alone.

This is the strong point of your thread that I am strongly agree with although your all point alsmot true. Exchange themselves are involve with manipulation. They can manipulate easily if they want. Actually whales are not only manipulate but also play pump dump. To be honest whales will not sell on loss. They buy on dip and start manipulate or pump when they need to sell. Exchanges and whales both are playing with our money. They will never lose, because they are player and they are umpire. So obviously they are winner always.

[Kevin77]

Whales are the only type of investor that always have a ton of anything at their hand given any time.

I do not believe that they are trying to manipulate it in a bad way or trying to destroy bitcoin or something like many people think but I feel like they are trying to shape it in a way it would make them the most profit. Obviously, they would help it go down if it means more money for them but they do increase the price whenever they can as well, it all depends on which direction they could profit more.

That is the reason, I think people who have a lot of dollars and a lot of bitcoin could basically be running the market right now because honestly the small people even combined do not have the power of a whale that can do just one big move that could change the price drastically.

[Gaff]

I'm strongly inclined to think that much of the market manipulation we see these days is caused by cryptocurrency exchanges alone.

This is the strong point of your thread that I am strongly agree with although your all point alsmot true. Exchange themselves are involve with manipulation. They can manipulate easily if they want. Actually whales are not only manipulate but also play pump dump. To be honest whales will not sell on loss. They buy on dip and start manipulate or pump when they need to sell. Exchanges and whales both are playing with our money. They will never lose, because they are player and they are umpire. So obviously they are winner always.

These whales will do great and eventually manipulate the price when they seen how their profit will go a long way. But for the current price movements right now, I don't we'll be experiencing back fast increasing crypto price. I agree their all winners at the same time, but as we played with them cleverly you'll be able to benefit from their end as they pumped up the price by buying more assets. Being smart is always the key to earn good profit as bull run initiates because of whales, and the smaller fish like us ate small portion of food that eventually brought us sustainable earnings by the time price hits the bullseye.

[Altero]

I'm strongly inclined to think that much of the market manipulation we see these days is caused by cryptocurrency exchanges alone.

This is the strong point of your thread that I am strongly agree with although your all point alsmot true. Exchange themselves are involve with manipulation. They can manipulate easily if they want. Actually whales are not only manipulate but also play pump dump. To be honest whales will not sell on loss. They buy on dip and start manipulate or pump when they need to sell. Exchanges and whales both are playing with our money. They will never lose, because they are player and they are umpire. So obviously they are winner always.

These whales will do great and eventually manipulate the price when they seen how their profit will go a long way. But for the current price movements right now, I don't we'll be experiencing back fast increasing crypto price. I agree their all winners at the same time, but as we played with them cleverly you'll be able to benefit from their end as they pumped up the price by buying more assets. Being smart is always the key to earn good profit as bull run initiates because of whales, and the smaller fish like us ate small portion of food that eventually brought us sustainable earnings by the time price hits the bullseye.

They are capable enough to manipulate the market as but it turns out into a horror for small market players. But it sometimes we're so thankful also with them cause with the hypes they made, many will take advantage to sell their coins  and being profitable during that time.

For this whales strategy, we should be careful and never buy coins which it is already on the top cause there will be possible a huge fall occurs in the next days. This may a big catch for new traders and investors.

[sandra_x]

Exchanges can play a role in price manipulation by reporting fake volumes or wash-trading in some cases but I but more often than not ,there actually whales who swing the prices in their favor. They move funds simultaneously across different exchanges to effect price change ,so it is not solely at the call of a single exchange most times.

[perla]

Exchanges can play a role in price manipulation by reporting fake volumes or wash-trading in some cases but I but more often than not ,there actually whales who swing the prices in their favor. They move funds simultaneously across different exchanges to effect price change ,so it is not solely at the call of a single exchange most times.

So it means there are only whales who can make that action. Because to do some act like that, only people with big money that can do it. But i see bitcoin price really can be manipulated, and sometime it can predicted by people.

[deisik]

Large traders are reacting to the market just like small traders. Sometimes they take whatever liquidity they can (including throwing up sell walls) because they need to enter/exit their position

Yeah, but they don't do it on every price movement. They are long-term players mostly as I don't really expect folks like the notorious twins to be scalping the market. Well, they could in fact do just that at Gemini (not with their own hands, of course) using the benefits and advantages that owning an exchange provides, but that would quickly amount to what I wrote in the OP (about exchanges being the top villains in manipulating and milking the market)

Markets often gravitate towards liquidity (major bid/ask walls) before reversing so placing sell walls when the market is rising and looks strong is actually an established trading practice. It's called "selling into strength." This isn't manipulation

It is not, but it is not what I meant either

Sometimes I feel like people around here expect large traders to be irrational. They're here to make profits, not prop the price of BTC.

Actually, we see a lot of hard evidence proving the opposite

And in this manner, the crypto markets are way more irrational than other markets out there. And making profits may in actuality mean propping up the price of some coin (though not necessarily Bitcoin). Bitcoin Cash and its variants are the first which come to mind instantly (e.g. Craig Wright buying hashes to support BSV)

Anyway, to my opinion the influence of whales on Bitcoin price is exaggerated and they don't have so much power to manipate the market as people think

Well, I'd sooner say they are not inclined to participate in manipulation rather than lacking enough financial means to do that. It is exchanges that are driving forces behind market rigging

[Herbert2020]

Sometimes I feel like people around here expect large traders to be irrational. They're here to make profits, not prop the price of BTC.

Actually, we see a lot of hard evidence proving the opposite

And in this manner, the crypto markets are way more irrational than other markets out there. And making profits may in actuality mean propping up the price of some coin (though not necessarily Bitcoin). Bitcoin Cash and its variants are the first which come to mind instantly (e.g. Craig Wright buying hashes to support BSV)

an irrational investor that is considered big will not remain big if they continue acting irrationally. they are considered big gamblers that reside in the market for a short time before going bankrupt.

as for your example (WC and his BSV nonsense) it was not "irrational" but a rational decision in my opinion. he has been making money off of it by pump and dumping, and by a lot of different scams. not to mention that his FUD was one of the main reason for the last price drop so technically if he shorted bitcoin he could have made a ton of money.

[deisik]

Sometimes I feel like people around here expect large traders to be irrational. They're here to make profits, not prop the price of BTC.

Actually, we see a lot of hard evidence proving the opposite

And in this manner, the crypto markets are way more irrational than other markets out there. And making profits may in actuality mean propping up the price of some coin (though not necessarily Bitcoin). Bitcoin Cash and its variants are the first which come to mind instantly (e.g. Craig Wright buying hashes to support BSV)

an irrational investor that is considered big will not remain big if they continue acting irrationally. they are considered big gamblers that reside in the market for a short time before going bankrupt

But I never said that such actions are outright irrational, did I?

Moreover, we can judge if a certain decision or step was rational or insane only in hindsight when the dust settles and things can be seen in their true light. Regarding Craig Wright specifically, I didn't say it was an irrational act. Technically, I don't know, and we don't know either (read, we may all be led to believe some bullshit)

I just wanted to point out that things can be more complicated and most certainly are in most cases, so it doesn't always come down to a simple idea that "they're here to make profits, not prop the price of BTC" as propping up the price may exactly be what's needed to make more profits in the future

[ajqjjj]

Exchanges can play a role in price manipulation by reporting fake volumes or wash-trading in some cases but I but more often than not ,there actually whales who swing the prices in their favor. They move funds simultaneously across different exchanges to effect price change ,so it is not solely at the call of a single exchange most times.

So it means there are only whales who can make that action. Because to do some act like that, only people with big money that can do it. But i see bitcoin price really can be manipulated, and sometime it can predicted by people.

I didn't see any prediction was comes in true because peoples are said different set of prediction in future but real market was control by whales because they hold huge volume so anytime it will change the result. I hope some big adoption is change this scenario.

[Bagaji]

In my opinion, whales do exist but just that not all the market fluctuation should be attributed to their activities of either buying and selling off their coins over the time. This is because the forces of demand and supply also affects the volume of the market and also the market trend.

[LeGaulois]

Most (if not all) markets have whales it's something unavoidable, I would even say it's something normal with Bitcoin? A lof other markets are manipulated but we never talk about it. How the Markets Are Manipulated
Most of them are currently holding their bag in sleeping mode. Just a few are trading. So I would say their impact is currently minimal.

[Bitcotalk]

all we have are signs and guesses. for example when price tries to rise and everyone is ready and the market volume is behind the rise but you suddenly see big walls be placed against the rise and big dumps in big chunks happening, that can not be anything but manipulation of whales.

by your definition, anyone placing orders on the book is a manipulator because they are blocking the price from moving the other direction. who is a manipulator and who is not? if you place a 500 BTC sell order at $10k because you think the price will drop, that means you're manipulating the market now?

The manipulation techniques are essentially the same as with any other tradable asset out there, and they have little to do with what you describe here (read, it is not about traders placing orders - whales or otherwise)

Just in case, insider trading is also illegal even though it is all about placing orders in the way you mean it

Now that we have found our self in this unregulated system that we really need so much and can’t do without, do we give up on the manipulation and see how we can adjust to it or do something about this manipulation which we sometimes tie to whales as a result of their pumping and dumping activities.

A lot of project developer too are quite confused on how to curtail all these manipulation, some of them has even come up with the strategy of locking bounty hunter’s rewards, thinking they are the cause of the dumping going on and yet, it still has not effect, right now, I don’t think any solution will even come from an exchange because they are always the beneficiaries of these manipulation.

[upsidedown75]

Sometimes, this manipulation of a thing is quite really difficult to understand as many factors we attach to this are still quite speculative since we are not completely sure of it. I know we have whales in the market but the level of their involvement in the market is what I cannot say, I also know that many exchanges too have their own input too in this manipulations and sometimes personally, I do even suspect the project developers, after all they also own a substantial amount of the coins in their jurisdiction though I know we have lots of respected developers that wouldn’t do so, it just my opinion.

[deisik]

In my opinion, whales do exist but just that not all the market fluctuation should be attributed to their activities of either buying and selling off their coins over the time. This is because the forces of demand and supply also affects the volume of the market and also the market trend

Whales exist and there's no doubt about it

If we are talking about Bitcoin here, the wallets belonging to individuals which can arguably be considered whales are well known (there are lists of these wallets on the net if anyone is curious). So this is not a matter for debate unlike the real impact of whales on the price. I didn't analyze the stats of the top wallet balance changes but I suspect that the coins are mostly sitting idly there. All action happens with exchange wallets which gives us a good clue as to who is behind most of the price action in the market (if we subtract global trends)

A lot of project developer too are quite confused on how to curtail all these manipulation, some of them has even come up with the strategy of locking bounty hunter’s rewards, thinking they are the cause of the dumping going on and yet, it still has not effect, right now, I don’t think any solution will even come from an exchange because they are always the beneficiaries of these manipulation

From my perspective, this is an exercise in futility and stupidity. If a certain project is worth it (read, it is not vaporware and does or offers some real stuff), people won't dump their tokens easily, while those who do will regret their hasty and ill-considered decision later

[davinchi]

A lot of project developer too are quite confused on how to curtail all these manipulation, some of them has even come up with the strategy of locking bounty hunter’s rewards, thinking they are the cause of the dumping going on and yet, it still has not effect, right now, I don’t think any solution will even come from an exchange because they are always the beneficiaries of these manipulation

From my perspective, this is an exercise in futility and stupidity. If a certain project is worth it (read, it is not vaporware and does or offers some real stuff), people won't dump their tokens easily, while those who do will regret their hasty and ill-considered decision later

Being a good project or not doesn’t really determine if an investor will dump the coin or not, mindset of many investors are so corrupt now that they moment they decide to invest in a project, they only go in for the profit immediately they see one, gone are the days when ICO just started, that many people consider the future of the project but because of the level of uncertainties in the market now, many people will sell off the coin, leaving the project to handle the rest but I still agree with you partially, irrespective of the dumping, any project with good product should be able to swim this wave out and still retain its price, if the product is really working for it.

[deisik]

From my perspective, this is an exercise in futility and stupidity. If a certain project is worth it (read, it is not vaporware and does or offers some real stuff), people won't dump their tokens easily, while those who do will regret their hasty and ill-considered decision later

Being a good project or not doesn’t really determine if an investor will dump the coin or not, mindset of many investors are so corrupt now that they moment they decide to invest in a project, they only go in for the profit immediately they see one

But is this really so?

The good project is good not because its investors are keeping their investments in it (it is an inevitable long-term outcome but not a cause of its being good) but because it is good by and in itself (read, it does something useful and creates value). So even if braindead bounty hunters dump the tokens as soon as they get these tokens, people who see the true potential of the project will be just happy to buy up them cheap. In other words, the stupid investors will leave while clever ones come

I still agree with you partially, irrespective of the dumping, any project with good product should be able to swim this wave out and still retain its price, if the product is really working for it

To sum it up, there is no lack of investors, there is a lack of good and promising projects