On whales and their impact

[deisik]

Half of the threads in this board (i.e. Speculation) is about whales manipulating the market in one way or another. But do they really exist and what is their real impact? If you want to find out, stay with me

I think it can be assumed as an established fact that there's some kind of market rigging going on at any time, which makes room for speculations about rich dudes moving prices as they see fit. Just as there is little doubt that some market manipulation is actually happening (though it remains to be seen how much of any given price move is in fact caused by this manipulation), there is also little doubt that quite a bunch of people involved in cryptocurrencies are extremely rich. But are they really behind every price manipulation out there?

My take is that they are not. Of course, when they start to sell, the price goes down, and when they go on a buying spree, the price goes up, which is kind of self-explanatory. With that said though, I'm strongly inclined to think that much of the market manipulation we see these days is caused by cryptocurrency exchanges alone. Indeed, you could say that they are the whales in question but I have to disagree with this point of view as they don't own the funds of their traders (though they definitely use these funds to massage the prices to their advantage)

What's your take on this?

[The Sceptical Chymist]

I agree with you--I've always pictured whales as the investors who buy and hold rather than the traders who look for short-term profit.  The two that come to mind immediately every time I hear the term 'whale' are the Winklevoss twins, who I assume still have massive amounts of bitcoin.  So I don't think whales are responsible for bitcoin's frequent and notorious price swings.  I think such swings are due to the combined market forces of thousands to millions of trades daily (don't know what the exact volume is).

It's easy to blame some unknown, faceless, and very wealthy culprits when the market takes a dive.  The same explanation gets made in the precious metals markets, except the metals people usually blame the government or JP Morgan for artificially keeping the price of gold/silver low.  I never bought that explanation, because it's too simplistic and there usually isn't any evidence given that it explains what's happening.

[barota]

somtime, whale c'ant impact on prices if everyone hodl and buy. in this case whale will buy expensive

[deisik]

Here is my take.
Whales are alive and well and absolutely control the price. They controlled it when btc exchanges first opened and they are controlling price on the exchanges now. Nothing has changed other than the price of each bitcoin. As it stands right now their power cannot and be contested. Even the deepest pockets cannot ever buy as many btc as the whales own right now. They are too far ahead in the game

So you tend to think that there are individuals with deep pockets (like the Winklevii twins mentioned above) who are actively buying and selling coins (as this is what control over the prices comes down to), right?

Imo the only way the playing field can be leveled to some degree is if the Bakkt platform becomes the largest bitcoin exchange in the world. Bitstamp, Bitfinex, Binance etc and the others would become secondary exchanges and their prices would follow Bakkt. So if the whales wanted to play and try to control or influence prices they would have to come to the playfield where there are institutions who could crush them with their unlimited buying and selling power. This is all assuming that institutions etc even want to get that heavily invested in btc and acquiring the coins. They may be happy just gambling on the price, but they would still want to control it

But how's that possible?

If there's only so much Bitcoin in the world? Unless a derivatives market orders of magnitude exceeding the spot market emerges, the institutional investors won't be able to make a dent or pierce a hole in the pockets of the whales, Bakkt or no Bakkt. But if paper bitcoins crowd out the real ones (i.e. the ones actually existing on the blockchain), this will severely undermine the whole idea behind cryptocurrency. All in all, it will turn Bitcoin into yet another fiat (with virtually unlimited issuance)

[Tytanowy Janusz]

I think that what we see on chart is not manipulated by 1 whale. Its battlefield where whale are fighting for their profit. I've seen many times those battles on market when big whale push price in one direction and suddenly price stopped high volume appeared and price moved in another direction forcing smaller whale to close position on loss boosting price even further. Its like watching a moovie for me.

I even heard opinion that every interval has its sponsor. On 5 min candles small whales are fighting for their profit pushing price in direction that they want. On 1h candles middle whales are fighting on bigger volumes. On 1d candles huge whales are pushing price pumping milions to set it how they want. Enormous whales are fighting on 1w candles, because only on that huge interval they can find volume that is right for them. Funny thing starts to happened when 5 min candle whale is trying to set price how he want it hitting in 1w whale wall.

I see trading more like poker table where n whales are fighting for big money and we, small traders are predicting which one of them will win to join and win with him.

[BrewMaster]

the manipulation can not be done by exchanges alone because none of them control enough of the market to have that kind of influence. the days of Mt Gox and controlling 85-90% of the volume in one place are long gone. these days exchanges that are gigantic only control about 8% of the volume. and you can't do much with that percentage.

but manipulation exists, and even exchanges have ways of manipulating the market (they have access to the most amount of funds that anybody can have anyways!) but saying that is all there is (as some topics around here are doing) is just wrong.

[figmentofmyass]

Half of the threads in this board (i.e. Speculation) is about whales manipulating the market in one way or another. But do they really exist and what is their real impact? If you want to find out, stay with me

I think it can be assumed as an established fact that there's some kind of market rigging going on at any time, which makes room for speculations about rich dudes moving prices as they see fit.

an established fact? based on what exactly? the musings of random posters on the speculation board? i'd love to see the "proof" underlying this fact.

over the years, i've seen many whales attempt to start pumps or selloffs with huge market orders. many times, i've also seen the market completely reject them and move in the other direction.

just like news, whales can't fundamentally dictate the market. bull whales can't stop a bear market. bear whales can't stop a bull market. those who try to manipulate in the wrong direction lose their money and cease to be whales. the smart ones move with the market and ride the trend.

[YuginKadoya]

The fact that there are whales in the cryptocurrency market is there just like you have said the Winklevoss twins you mention I really think as the time goes by and certain individuals will surely know about this market we can assume that they can form their own unity or views on the crypto space, There are well-known people that we known that can buy a ton of bitcoin the many celebrities, The billionaire and millionaire that are interested with cryptocurrency we can sure see some news about it we can not deny that they really exist just like the conspiracy that we have that there are Illuminati and there are society of secrets that we can conclude in the list of speculated whales, We can assume that politicians and business oligarchs can unite their resources in manipulating the market,

I am just stating the facts on what kind of people whales may be and concluded people that may have interest in this kind of market and people like these can have a certain advantage in manipulating the market if they feel like it, Even if this is just my speculation if we think of it there can be people that are owning many bitcoin in their deep pockets.

[Pursuer]

an established fact? based on what exactly? the musings of random posters on the speculation board? i'd love to see the "proof" underlying this fact.

there is never going to be any kind of proof of manipulation in the market, if there were any then authorities would have already arrested manipulators since it is illegal to something like that!

all we have are signs and guesses. for example when price tries to rise and everyone is ready and the market volume is behind the rise but you suddenly see big walls be placed against the rise and big dumps in big chunks happening, that can not be anything but manipulation of whales.
this is obviously more visible among altcoins. for example when a dead shitcoin suddenly starts mooning out of nowhere, that is obviously a manipulation.

[figmentofmyass]

an established fact? based on what exactly? the musings of random posters on the speculation board? i'd love to see the "proof" underlying this fact.

there is never going to be any kind of proof of manipulation in the market, if there were any then authorities would have already arrested manipulators since it is illegal to something like that!

all we have are signs and guesses. for example when price tries to rise and everyone is ready and the market volume is behind the rise but you suddenly see big walls be placed against the rise and big dumps in big chunks happening, that can not be anything but manipulation of whales.

by your definition, anyone placing orders on the book is a manipulator because they are blocking the price from moving the other direction. who is a manipulator and who is not? if you place a 500 BTC sell order at $10k because you think the price will drop, that means you're manipulating the market now?

are whales not allowed to sell to lock in profits? such a free market, this!

when people blame things on manipulation, it usually means they're bagholding and demand was just too weak to cause price to rise. losing traders always look for anyone else to blame but themselves.

this is obviously more visible among altcoins. for example when a dead shitcoin suddenly starts mooning out of nowhere, that is obviously a manipulation.

of course tiny shitcoins are getting pumped and dumped. what makes you think that can be applied to the bitcoin market?

[Upgrade00]

I have always disagreed with the whale manipulations theory. Firstly, whales are not a group of people living in the same apartment, they are scattered all over the world, although it's likely a few know each other. I do not think they can always pool together and manipulate the price.
And also it's very risky with how the currency has grown, and considering the amount they have invested.

[adaseb]

Basically people all over the trollboxs and Reddit keep complaining that they are losing money due to manipulation which is done by the whales. However they never complained when BTC reached $20000 and ETH reached $1400.

I don't think there is 1 or 2 whales which control the entire market. I just think it mostly is a bunch of separate large traders which follow the same trades. When one whale shorts, they see the market reaction and they short also.

Back in November everyone was bullish because they assumed that $6K was the low and usually BTC has a bullish November month so they all went long on margin. But the large traders knew that since it failed to close on a weekly high we might get new lows, and they were correct.

I don't think this is manipuation.

[exstasie]

Large traders are reacting to the market just like small traders. Sometimes they take whatever liquidity they can (including throwing up sell walls) because they need to enter/exit their position.

Markets often gravitate towards liquidity (major bid/ask walls) before reversing so placing sell walls when the market is rising and looks strong is actually an established trading practice. It's called "selling into strength." This isn't manipulation.

Selling into strength refers to the practice of selling out of a long or into a short position when the price of the asset is moving higher. The proactive strategy is designed to preempt an upcoming reversal in the price.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sellingintostrength.asp

Sometimes I feel like people around here expect large traders to be irrational. They're here to make profits, not prop the price of BTC.

[Ipwich]

somtime, whale c'ant impact on prices if everyone hodl and buy. in this case whale will buy expensive

The thing is this is not happening, so you are saying an impossible scenario.
Whales are called whales for a reason, and that is because they can move the price and give impact to the market.

[riritsurya1202]

Whales existence is impossible to neglect at this point, but their importance is being put too much. I think sometimes usual buy or sell action by whales is simply following market sentiment. So they're not really 'manipulating' at one point, as exstasie mentioned, it's just a logical reaction to prevent further loss and take profits.

[Juggy777]

Half of the threads in this board (i.e. Speculation) is about whales manipulating the market in one way or another. But do they really exist and what is their real impact? If you want to find out, stay with me

I think it can be assumed as an established fact that there's some kind of market rigging going on at any time, which makes room for speculations about rich dudes moving prices as they see fit. Just as there is little doubt that some market manipulation is actually happening (though it remains to be seen how much of any given price move is in fact caused by this manipulation), there is also little doubt that quite a bunch of people involved in cryptocurrencies are extremely rich. But are they really behind every price manipulation out there?

My take is that they are not. Of course, when they start to sell, the price goes down, and when they go on a buying spree, the price goes up, which is kind of self-explanatory. With that said though, I'm strongly inclined to think that much of the market manipulation we see these days is caused by cryptocurrency exchanges alone. Indeed, you could say that they are the whales in question but I have to disagree with this point of view as they don't own the funds of their traders (though they definitely use these funds to massage the prices to their advantage)

What's your take on this?

Hey i agree with you I had read a report earlier which cited whales wallet, and it said many of them do not trade actively and they normally have been holding bitcoins. I had suspected this since a while now, that exchanges could be manipulating the prices and your facts makes sense to me. Also I agree with you that whales wallet trading is just a excuse, the exchanges have been directly influencing the prices.

[deisik]

the manipulation can not be done by exchanges alone because none of them control enough of the market to have that kind of influence. the days of Mt Gox and controlling 85-90% of the volume in one place are long gone. these days exchanges that are gigantic only control about 8% of the volume. and you can't do much with that percentage

Hang on a sec, if they are not the master manipulators, who is then?

But most importantly, if exchanges control only 8% of the volume (I'm curious where you got that number), it doesn't mean they cannot manipulate prices. Well, I assume you think like major manipulation, i.e. moving prices up and down dozens of percentages and keeping it there. But that's not what I mean. I primarily refer to price manipulation in the form of unexpected flash crashes and bursts that make traders panic and get out of their positions either willingly or forcibly (e.g. via liquidation of margin positions)

but manipulation exists, and even exchanges have ways of manipulating the market (they have access to the most amount of funds that anybody can have anyways!) but saying that is all there is (as some topics around here are doing) is just wrong

The point is, I do not particularly believe in the narrative of whales massively manipulating prices (note, I don't deny their existence as such)

[Ararbermas]

Yes whales had a big impact on the prices because of being have a big contribution on the market and it's the only reason why last year there is hard fall on the price.  But nowadays for me only Fud's is interrupting when there's a stable growth rate which in my view reason market nowadays sometimes fluctuate even we buy and hold.

[bitbunnny]

I guess people have to blaim someone if the price isn't satisfying for them. So they blaim whales and their influence accusing them for manipulation. It's funny though how they are not blaiming whales when the price is high.
Anyway, to my opinion the influence of whales on Bitcoin price is exaggerated and they don't have so much power to manipate the market as people think.

[deisik]

Half of the threads in this board (i.e. Speculation) is about whales manipulating the market in one way or another. But do they really exist and what is their real impact? If you want to find out, stay with me

I think it can be assumed as an established fact that there's some kind of market rigging going on at any time, which makes room for speculations about rich dudes moving prices as they see fit.

an established fact?

Yes, sort of (but I guess you know that yourself)

Actually, you already know that "proof" as it is no secret that runaway market manipulation (market rigging, for the lack of a better word) is one of the reasons the financial authorities (e.g. SEC) refuse to give their consent to Bitcoin ETF's. For what it's worth, they articulate it quite clearly that their primary concern with cryptocurrencies is market manipulation, as simple as it reads. Well, none other than Jay Clayton, the chairman of the SEC, said the following:

What I’m concerned about at the moment is if it can be reasonably demonstrated that the underlying trading is generally not manipulated, it’s happening on reliable venues with good rules and that custody is something we can feel comfortable about. … I think this technology has and is already demonstrating pretty significant promise, but it’s demonstrating significant promise in the places where it’s consistent with our approach to capital raising in the past

Does it count as a proof to you or is he more like some random poster on the speculation board?

just like news, whales can't fundamentally dictate the market. bull whales can't stop a bear market. bear whales can't stop a bull market. those who try to manipulate in the wrong direction lose their money and cease to be whales. the smart ones move with the market and ride the trend

Technically, this is what I'm trying to convey and emphasize here, that the whales are mostly sitting on the fence (or roaming in neutral waters)