Bitcoin 4-year cycle is it real? Probable end year rally for Bitcoin

[lionheart78]

I am browsing youtube to watch Bitcoin review and I found this video feed from Altcoin Daily, Titled : 270 Days Of Nothing...Then BOOM! Historically Speaking, Bitcoin Should Rally At The End Of The Year! where he talk about Bitcoin 4 year cycle by Bob Loukas.  This caught my interest since there is a pattern on the price of Bitcoin.  

On this video we can see, there is a 3 years uptrend and a year of correction, and recently it was an uptrend from 2015 to 2017, then a downtrend on 2018 that completes the 4 year cycle.  Though we all agree that previous performance is not a definitive indicator of what will happen on the future but is it possible that this 2019 is the start of the new 4 year cycle?  What do you think?

Additional information:

Bob Loukas' Bitcoin 4 year cycle video

more from Bob Loukas

Additonal explanation about the 4 year cycle  by Bob Loukas

The Next 4-Year Cycle Started

Bitcoin 4 Year Journey - The Right HODL Allocation

The first actionable step in the BTC 4-Year Cycle Strategy is here!   Have you taken your position yet?  In this video I cover the right allocation and what I am doing. 

My position for this strategy is this Public Address:

3BsVyFvjSKDxSxFLW6nWuRqX8eKWeu4FWZ

[magneto]

I am browsing youtube to watch Bitcoin review and I found this video feed from Altcoin Daily, Titled : 270 Days Of Nothing...Then BOOM! Historically Speaking, Bitcoin Should Rally At The End Of The Year! where he talk about Bitcoin 4 year cycle by Bob Loukas.  This caught my interest since there is a pattern on the price of Bitcoin. 

On this video we can see, there is a 3 years uptrend and a year of correction, and recently it was an uptrend from 2015 to 2017, then a downtrend on 2018 that completes the 4 year cycle.  Though we all agree that previous performance is not a definitive indicator of what will happen on the future but is it possible that this 2019 is the start of the new 4 year cycle?  What do you think?

Additional information:

Bob Loukas' Bitcoin 4 year cycle video

Me and others have been speaking about this cycle since the start of the bear market. It's not like it's just been discovered or something.

I think that it's safe to say halving has and will have a significant impact in the emergence of bull markets, because of the fact that the relative scarcity of newly mined coins all of a sudden increase and markets react to that, as well as the psychological aspect of people's expectations based on previous halvings pushing demand up.

It's apparent that this time round with the 2020 halving, a bull rally of sorts will most likely occur beforehand. Whether it'll start this year as people price in the event, or how much the markets actually go up as a result of this, we have no idea of knowing for certain, and people who give specific figures to these predictions usually have absolutely zero backing. But I do think that currently, we have already bottomed out, and it's very unlikely that markets will regress further down under $3k.

[lionheart78]

It's apparent that this time round with the 2020 halving, a bull rally of sorts will most likely occur beforehand. Whether it'll start this year as people price in the event, or how much the markets actually go up as a result of this, we have no idea of knowing for certain,

Definitely agree with you, halving always have a positive effect on Bitcoin price ever since, as what you said, it made Bitcoin mining more scarce.  And scarcity somehow affect the price of any items.  

and people who give specific figures to these predictions usually have absolutely zero backing.

Well I believe this is just a psychological strategy, making people believe that in some point of time  Bitcoin will reach this amount of price,  which can trigger FOMO that will eventually push the price higher.  I do believe it is not healthy for Bitcoin market though since I favor on a natural price growth than the hyped one.

[dothebeats]

I think that it's safe to say halving has and will have a significant impact in the emergence of bull markets, because of the fact that the relative scarcity of newly mined coins all of a sudden increase and markets react to that, as well as the psychological aspect of people's expectations based on previous halvings pushing demand up.

I beg to differ. People have been expecting the past halving events to bring something good to the crypto table but in reality, it just cuts down the reward for miners and the relative scarcity is just increased. It is expected to bring price rises but in reality, there really is no guarantee accompanied with the reward halving. Traders might also expect some positive trading signal but then again halving events =/ price increases. As for the 4-year cycle, I don't know. We only have had two of the said 'cycle' so it's hard to call it with utmost certainty.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

I think that it's safe to say halving has and will have a significant impact in the emergence of bull markets, because of the fact that the relative scarcity of newly mined coins all of a sudden increase and markets react to that, as well as the psychological aspect of people's expectations based on previous halvings pushing demand up.

I beg to differ. People have been expecting the past halving events to bring something good to the crypto table but in reality, it just cuts down the reward for miners and the relative scarcity is just increased. It is expected to bring price rises but in reality, there really is no guarantee accompanied with the reward halving. Traders might also expect some positive trading signal but then again halving events =/ price increases. As for the 4-year cycle, I don't know. We only have had two of the said 'cycle' so it's hard to call it with utmost certainty.

Agreed. Its just decrease of inflation by few %. Thats it.

Technically it could pump price like few %. But fomo guys will pump it 100% i their wont be dumped by whale.

To the bitcoin cycles. Bitcoin is very young and immature. Its hard to predict what would happened on 60 bil market asset looking at its behaviour 4 years ago at 3 bil marketcap. Its totally different type of asset and will act totally different.

[BitcoinPanther]

To the bitcoin cycles. Bitcoin is very young and immature. Its hard to predict what would happened on 60 bil market asset looking at its behaviour 4 years ago at 3 bil marketcap. Its totally different type of asset and will act totally different.

I guess, we need to wait for another 12 to 16 years if the 4 year cycle of Bitcoin is really a pattern.  But as what OP stated, the previous history is not an indicator of what happen next, we can just wait and see if this cycle will appear again this 2019, and I guess this is the reference of these positive predictions about Bitcoin price that currently plague the social media.

[BitHodler]

I do believe it is not healthy for Bitcoin market though since I favor on a natural price growth than the hyped one.

Same here, but the fomo and hype cycles are what make people actually pay attention to crypto. If it wasn't the mad gains making people enter this market, what else would? I entered because of a bull run too.

Only a very people buy into Bitcoin because they like the underlying tech, while over 90% of the people solely buy Bitcoin for speculative purposes. This is the reality of today where gains is almost all that matters.

At the end of the day, if Bitcoin keeps growing, and I definitely think it will, the increasing liquidity within this market will make it more difficult for fomo and hype to affect its value unless the market as a whole goes nuts.

[Kemarit]

If I remember it correctly, the bull cycle started or at least the recovery is after 4 months of the bitcoin block halving. So if anyone thinks that immediately the price will be pump, then you are all wrong. It needed several months before the price spike, so we need that to take into consideration. Another thing worth to mentioned is that there are just few sample data that we can rely up, so it's really hard to say if we are going to see a rally before the end of the year in preparation for the next block halving in 2020.

[el kaka22]

End of the year is very close to halving as well and that is what I am betting my money on. I have been saving bitcoin for close to 6 months now, I have spent a bit of it and cashed out a little to keep on living but at the same time I am keeping as much bitcoin as possible, that is why I think its really possible at the end of this year we can see a rally, maybe a bit earlier or maybe a bit later but we will see it.

I wouldn't be shocked if it happens on October/November or it happens during January/February instead of December but it will certainly happen. Oh do not think that this "rally" would be something huge though, I feel like it will be about $6k-$7k at most and possibly hitting $8k at max but that is about it, I am not expecting another 20k rally at all not this soon.

[The Cryptovator]

Probably cycle would repeat. We have seen last year totally was down trend of bitcoin. This year almost we can see bitcoin still stable between $3K to $4K. If in case bitcoin cross $5K then we can say bitcoin going to repeat cycle of last four years. Also we can see few positive news about crypto-currency. Although we don't know exactly what is going on but I am thinking positive. But still bitcoin is bear mode, we don't know when it will bull mode. I think we will be clear after few couple of month. Till then we have to wait.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I don’t think we’ll see any significant price rise until a few months after the halving in 2020. It’s too soon for ‘epic’ pumps right now. You’re probably going to have to wait 18 months until we see real fireworks.

My prediction for the price at the end of 2019 - Between 6k & 7k.

[thecodebear]

Yes I think a large amount of people who pay attention to bitcoin believe in the halving-related 4 year cycle.

I'd say it is very probably true, and it makes sense logically. Under this hypothesis bitcoin should start moving up this year, 2020 will be upward but not anything crazy (maybe a 3x?), and 2021 will be another boom year.

I think there could be some fluctuation in the 4 year cycle, because its also due to other events, like the boom in spring of 2017 starting once Japan legally accepted bitcoin. Also the duration of the crash and the duration of the bottom doesn't have much to do with the halving cycle, but the crashes have always crashed by simlilar amounts and the past two crashes have been similar in duration 14 months in 2014, 12 months in 2018. The bottom I think will also turn out to be of similar length, though possibly a bit shorter now just because there is so much more awareness of crypto now and a lot more happening in the industry than there was in 2015. The 2015 bottom was ~9 months, currently we're only half way through that time period and it looks like bitcoin MIGHT move off the bottom a decent amount sooner than late summer which would be ~9 months, considering the price is looking very strong over the past 5 weeks hanging out right at the top of the bottom range, though I am certainly not assuming the bull market is about to begin.

Anyway, the halving produces a slow shift in the market every 4 years by decreasing the supply hitting the market, meaning price invariably rises given similar demand. Price steadily moving up means eventually it will get close to the old peak but this time with a slow built steady base price at that old peak, when the peak gets hit people start believing in bitcoin again and the price starts skyrocketing at some point after that, and at some point the FOMO builds to a fever pitch and we see the price shoot up to totally unreasonable levels and it peaks and crashes. This is all seems to be led by the 4 year halving, with industry events/news obviously playing a part as well. I would just say we should expect a very rough 4 year cycle, because there is no reason the bull market has to last two years before peaking, it could last 3 and we might not see another peak until 2022, in which case perhaps the bottom after the next crash would be short lived as the next 2024 halving would happen during the bottoming out phase in that case rather than quite a while after it. Basically I'd say a 4 year cycle seems to be true with some room for a bit shorter or a bit longer.

[thecodebear]

I don’t think we’ll see any significant price rise until a few months after the halving in 2020. It’s too soon for ‘epic’ pumps right now. You’re probably going to have to wait 18 months until we see real fireworks.

My prediction for the price at the end of 2019 - Between 6k & 7k.

Totally agree. I'm pretty much assuming $7k region for end of this year, and $15k+ end of 2020, with things heating up in 2021 after it eclipses $20k and suddenly millions/tens of millions/hundreds of millions of people realize that bitcoin didn't disappear to zero and its base price is now at that point the peak from 2017 that they thought would never happen again.

2019 - $6-7k
2020 - $15 - 18k or so
2021/2022 - $100k+ at the peak

Whenever someone predicts a full on bull run by year's end I'm like geez these people need to look at this history, this isn't 2011 anymore, bull runs take a couple years to build up now that bitcoin is a decent sized market.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

+1 Merit for that post thecodebear - I agree with the numbers by year you’ve predicted. There will be a hell of a lot of happy people here if (as expected) we see euphoric prices in 2021/22.

[thecodebear]

+1 Merit for that post thecodebear - I agree with the numbers by year you’ve predicted. There will be a hell of a lot of happy people here if (as expected) we see euphoric prices in 2021/22.

Thanks 

Yeah agreed on happy people when that happens haha.

[fabiorem]

I'd say it is very probably true, and it makes sense logically. Under this hypothesis bitcoin should start moving up this year, 2020 will be upward but not anything crazy (maybe a 3x?), and 2021 will be another boom year.

Bitcoin have got back to previous ATH in 2016, so I think 2020 will see the price returning to near 20k.

Thats why this is a good time to buy it. We already know the potential for growth, and a full recovery would bring 5x profits for those buying now.

[OgNasty]

I don’t think we’ll see any significant price rise until a few months after the halving in 2020. It’s too soon for ‘epic’ pumps right now. You’re probably going to have to wait 18 months until we see real fireworks.

My prediction for the price at the end of 2019 - Between 6k & 7k.

Totally agree. I'm pretty much assuming $7k region for end of this year, and $15k+ end of 2020, with things heating up in 2021 after it eclipses $20k and suddenly millions/tens of millions/hundreds of millions of people realize that bitcoin didn't disappear to zero and its base price is now at that point the peak from 2017 that they thought would never happen again.

2019 - $6-7k
2020 - $15 - 18k or so
2021/2022 - $100k+ at the peak

Whenever someone predicts a full on bull run by year's end I'm like geez these people need to look at this history, this isn't 2011 anymore, bull runs take a couple years to build up now that bitcoin is a decent sized market.

If the cycle repeats, I think we could be looking at a fun number of $222,202.2 on 2/22/2022.

[HeRetiK]

Whenever someone predicts a full on bull run by year's end I'm like geez these people need to look at this history, this isn't 2011 anymore, bull runs take a couple years to build up now that bitcoin is a decent sized market.

That's what makes me a bit less optimistic though, namely that Bitcoin's market may already have reached a size where these cycles become either even longer or less pronounced. I wouldn't be surprised if the upcoming halving is already priced in, with the next ATH not occurring until the halving of 2024. Crypto never fails to catch one off guard though.

[figmentofmyass]

I am browsing youtube to watch Bitcoin review and I found this video feed from Altcoin Daily, Titled : 270 Days Of Nothing...Then BOOM! Historically Speaking, Bitcoin Should Rally At The End Of The Year! where he talk about Bitcoin 4 year cycle by Bob Loukas.  This caught my interest since there is a pattern on the price of Bitcoin.  

no there isn't. we only have a decade of price history. this "4 year cycle" has literally only happened once. that's not a pattern lol. with the 2011 bubble, the bull/bear cycle was much faster and looked nothing like 2013. we have two data points for how post-bubble bear markets resolve and one of them refutes this claim about a 4-year cycle. things could also take much longer now too.

if you're a bull because of the long term price trend, that's reasonable. but expecting things to play out exactly like 2014-2017 because it happened one time before is really dumb.

[vit05]

I don’t think we’ll see any significant price rise until a few months after the halving in 2020. It’s too soon for ‘epic’ pumps right now. You’re probably going to have to wait 18 months until we see real fireworks.

My prediction for the price at the end of 2019 - Between 6k & 7k.

Totally agree. I'm pretty much assuming $7k region for end of this year, and $15k+ end of 2020, with things heating up in 2021 after it eclipses $20k and suddenly millions/tens of millions/hundreds of millions of people realize that bitcoin didn't disappear to zero and its base price is now at that point the peak from 2017 that they thought would never happen again.

2019 - $6-7k
2020 - $15 - 18k or so
2021/2022 - $100k+ at the peak

Whenever someone predicts a full on bull run by year's end I'm like geez these people need to look at this history, this isn't 2011 anymore, bull runs take a couple years to build up now that bitcoin is a decent sized market.

If the cycle repeats, I think we could be looking at a fun number of $222,202.2 on 2/22/2022.

Funny. Someone could use this opportunity to make a website counting down the this date. And for celebrating we could make an a pizza Gold party. Because this will make Bitcoin one of the biggest market in the world.