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Author Topic: BTC might do something nice soon. TA only ( No crystal Ball/s)  (Read 671 times)
mikeywith
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March 28, 2019, 10:28:28 PM
Merited by shulio (2), adaseb (1), Pab (1), alyssa85 (1), freedomgo (1)
 #1

  Chart first




Green = 200 SMA
Red = 50 SMA
Yellow = 20 SMA

Chart > Weekly
---------------------------------------------------------------------


BTC right now is trading above the 20 SMA .

Throughout history (July 2010 ) up to now, every time price closed above the weekly 20SMA (yellow), it always heads straight to 50SMA (Red) ,by always i mean ,every single time. ( couldn't zoom out the chart to show <2014 but the same thing happened before that too, you can check the chart yourself)

This means , if we don't drop below 3850$ before Sunday (weekly candle close)we could very likely enter a mini-rally and see sub 5000$-5600$ in a few weeks.

however, the more likely scenario is a dip below 3800$ before Sunday to re-test the 200SMA at 3400ish

so if you are currently shorting BTC (like i am doing) , you better watch the weekly close, if you see a clear weekly candle peaking it's head above the 20SMA, you will very likely get liquidated.

The other interesting thing is this, should we drop and bounce back up from the 200 SMA( likely) , it will be very possible that we close above the 20SMA on the weekly and peak our heads to see those 5k levels again pretty soon.

note this is a weekly chart, things won't happen in a week or two, it takes months to swing between those SMAs.


also , i would like to hear what you guys think about these almost identical charts  2014-2015 vs 2018-2019. they look even more similar with the way price flirts with these SMAs.






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March 28, 2019, 10:36:02 PM
 #2

well, last week I heard some analysts say that the price would fall below $ 3800 and then I saved a little money so that in case of falling below $3800 I can buy more bitcoin, it happens that I am already the waiting to fall below $ 3800 and the price did not fall, on the contrary the price went up, it seems to me that whenever the person desires something, happens the  opposite. We'll see if you will hit your forecast.

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March 28, 2019, 10:45:57 PM
Merited by LeGaulois (1)
 #3

Quote
This means , if we don't drop below 3850$ before Sunday (weekly candle close)we could very likely enter a mini-rally and see sub 5000$-5600$ in a few weeks.

however, the more likely scenario is a dip below 3800$ before Sunday to re-test the 200SMA at 3400ish

Both scenarios are possible.

I personally wouldn't necessarily short bitcoin at the moment though unless you're trading on high leverage (which comes with higher risks), because I don't think it's very likely that prices will drop below the $3k bottom that we've seen as the floor thus far even if we do correct below $3.8k as you say.

A recovery is imminent at this stage, and we'll most likely see some sort of major rally before the end of the year in my opinion. But in the short term, prices can certainly continue to move down, when given the fact that the market sentiment has still not reversed imho.

 
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March 28, 2019, 11:18:59 PM
 #4

well, last week I heard some analysts say that the price would fall below $ 3800 and then I saved a little money so that in case of falling below $3800 I can buy more bitcoin, it happens that I am already the waiting to fall below $ 3800 and the price did not fall, on the contrary the price went up, it seems to me that whenever the person desires something, happens the  opposite. We'll see if you will hit your forecast.

The probability of falling below 3800$ atm is higher than breaking above current resistance, i initially had 3400$ as a target , but then the trend line seems a bit strong, so changed my target to 3650$ ,  i am shorting based on this 4h set up > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5071613.msg50315484#msg50315484 only aiming for 6-8% , will exist with a lose should close above prev local high on the 4h chart, but as far as the med term goes, weekly candle on Sunday should be key.

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March 29, 2019, 03:12:38 AM
 #5

My total guess would be bitcoin moves back down towards the 200 support (during April) hitting 3600 or so, then maybe by June we see it back at 4000 looking strong like it has been recently. by the time the 50 might be down to mid 4000s and we could be looking at a boost out of the bottom range above the 50 line to start the next bull market in june or july.

total guess.

cuz i don't really see a huge bull trap going to mid-5000s and then falling back down after we've had stable 3100-4100 range for 4.5 months so far. I think any serious break about low-4000s of that magnitude (and suddenly going up 1500 above the top of the bottom range would be a huge move) will signal the start of the bull market. Bitcoin isn't as volatile as it was 4 years ago when the bottom was a 50% range from $200 to $300. If it goes up 3000s to 5000s I think that's bull market start. anyway, just guessing ;p
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March 29, 2019, 10:54:07 AM
 #6

The charts look similar because of how bots have nothing but the past to fall back on, so in that regard it makes sense that things rhyme, especially without anything in the near term to spark more spontaneous buying that lifts the price above crucial resistance levels.

For now I expect more boring market activity with how the strong support and resistance levels are coming closer to each other every day that goes by. It's waiting for a strong move either up or down, and I think that's a good thing because of how we get to know more about who is actually in charge in the very short term.

All I know is that my main target to short is somewhere between the $4500-$5000 zone with how sellers are lining up to unload some coins.


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March 29, 2019, 11:54:41 AM
 #7

The nice things has began and we are seeing more of bull than red this days. If you look at the market behavior you will agree with me that since the beginning of this year those that are ready to sell are lesser than those that are ready to buy and that is a good signal about the market.
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March 29, 2019, 12:45:32 PM
 #8

Throughout history (July 2010 ) up to now, every time price closed above the weekly 20SMA (yellow), it always heads straight to 50SMA (Red) ,by always i mean ,every single time. ( couldn't zoom out the chart to show <2014 but the same thing happened before that too, you can check the chart yourself)

Although history tends to repeat itself, I will warn traders to be very careful. The last year was unusual, the market moves were not always as expected.
While a "valid" rise is indeed possible, as @omonuyak also said, there's quite a chance for a bull trap too.

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March 29, 2019, 02:15:10 PM
 #9

I am in love with the no crystal ball Cheesy. That's amazing and that /s is a proof of reddit here which I will always love.

I think there is a potential of that move but anyone in bitcoin world knows that bitcoin doesn't really react the way you want and charts suggest most of the time, you can always find a way to build a chart that shows bitcoin going down or going up so its not really a proof of it going up next week.

Don't get me wrong it could totally go up and maybe we will hit 5k+ finally (which I would be super hyped about) but it could also not drop under 3850 and than just not go up neither, spend the whole next week between 3900-4100 prices and maybe even a whole another month there.

Bitcoin is very risky to trade just because of this, you can invest into bitcoin but if you want to trade bitcoin know that it could do anything at any moment.

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March 29, 2019, 02:46:19 PM
 #10

well, last week I heard some analysts say that the price would fall below $ 3800 and then I saved a little money so that in case of falling below $3800 I can buy more bitcoin, it happens that I am already the waiting to fall below $ 3800 and the price did not fall, on the contrary the price went up, it seems to me that whenever the person desires something, happens the  opposite. We'll see if you will hit your forecast.
Concern the analysts prediction, most analyzers dont also know what the future price of the market will be which is why they also usually said their analysts is trading advice. What I'm trying to say is that the market is in 50/50 position but it has better chance to surge in price due to it resistance to dump in price for weeks and as the OP said if the market could maintain the $4K price for days then there chance for another rally.

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March 29, 2019, 05:24:18 PM
 #11

If it's true that every single time the 50 SMA breach happens right after a close above 20SMA , I think you deserve credit for pointing out that out. Call my horizons narrow but I swear I haven't seen someone say this.

So, 3850 the level to watch for on Sunday and then we head up of the medium term? I've a crystal ball feeling we won't even see 3900 until Monday.

Pretty decent comparison, but what about relative activity or volume? Are those also matching up?

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March 29, 2019, 05:31:31 PM
 #12

This means , if we don't drop below 3850$ before Sunday (weekly candle close)we could very likely enter a mini-rally and see sub 5000$-5600$ in a few weeks.
Actually it won't be bad to see strong BTC again, but I agree with your second scenario, more than I agree with scenario above...
however, the more likely scenario is a dip below 3800$ before Sunday to re-test the 200SMA at 3400ish
We will see what will happen in three days, good points and nice trend analysis overall.
Keep in mind that BTC is currently at strong resistance.

 
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March 29, 2019, 06:59:05 PM
Merited by mikeywith (1)
 #13

cuz i don't really see a huge bull trap going to mid-5000s and then falling back down after we've had stable 3100-4100 range for 4.5 months so far.

It's only been 3 months, and we really only became confirmed as range-bound in February. The market also moves much, much slower than in 2015 so I think people are jumping the gun a bit.

And let's look at what happened in 2015. We went sideways for half the year, only to break down below $200 again in August. That crash was strongly bought up, and then we started rising into a bull market. Bulls really haven't been tested yet regarding these bottom levels. If we don't retest the bottom, then we'll at least get a higher low like August 2015. Too many bulls are already assuming the pain is all over, which indicates to me there is no bull market coming yet.

I think any serious break about low-4000s of that magnitude (and suddenly going up 1500 above the top of the bottom range would be a huge move) will signal the start of the bull market.

What's the rationale for that? What's your school of thought on bull/bear cycles? How do you know it won't just get sold into like July 2015?

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March 29, 2019, 08:25:50 PM
 #14

Bitcoin is very risky to trade just because of this, you can invest into bitcoin but if you want to trade bitcoin know that it could do anything at any moment.
I honestly find the market rather predictable in the short term with how most retailers with unstable moods are not participating in the market. Most short and long opportunities were quite easy to settle profitably.

I usually am quite conservative when it comes to trading, but I have taken an opportunity or two in the recent weeks to do some trading after a long period of paper trading, and it worked out well so far.

I'm currently long around $3950 and it seems to be a good move so far. My intention is to lock in profits the moment we hit $4200 because I believe that the strong resistance around that level will initiate large dumps tanking the price.
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March 29, 2019, 08:34:35 PM
 #15

bitcoin doesn't really react the way you want and charts suggest most of the time

If the above theory is true, one can simply trade against the charts and become a millionaire.

If most of the time price will go against what TA suggests , go ahead make a bot that trades against the odds , it is pretty simple. Roll Eyes

The crystal ball suggest that TA should not be taken as if its 100% accurate science, but whether it works or not  this is something i hate to discuss every single day, so if you do not do charts then you need a crystal ball to trade, if you don't have at least one of those two ,then you will always lose in the long run.

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March 29, 2019, 08:46:19 PM
 #16


Both scenarios are possible.

Most people would guess a repeat of previous which is down from 4100 area.   Its top of the range but I do expect price to explore 4500 and beyond to 6000.   Theres no real way to know if BTC will push that far this week or next or in the future
Quote
however, the more likely scenario is a dip below 3800$ before Sunday to re-test the 200SMA at 3400ish

Thats very bearish because 200 weeks is a hell of a long term average - thats really pushing the needle where as 4100 is not that extreme upwards.   Just pushing that far means we are a far more negative sentiment then many realise.   Usually some news of some type will upset it either way though I dont think thats the true determiner it can be ignition

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March 29, 2019, 08:49:57 PM
 #17

You don't need a spirit to tell you that bitcoin is doing very nice this days and will even do more because we are getting to the tale end of the bearish market and about to enter one of the major bull run that the market have ever experienced, this is why this is the best time to make purchase of bitcoin and other crypto with great potentials because in few months we might not be able to purchase them in the current price they are now.
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March 30, 2019, 01:51:50 AM
 #18

You don't need a spirit to tell you that bitcoin is doing very nice this days and will even do more because we are getting to the tale end of the bearish market and about to enter one of the major bull run that the market have ever experienced, this is why this is the best time to make purchase of bitcoin and other crypto with great potentials because in few months we might not be able to purchase them in the current price they are now.
We are all know bearish market was end in this month so peoples are little happy to purchase the Bitcoin. But sometimes was move to sudden dump so some investors are little worried. I thought short term trading is good to make decent profit and If we analyse the future possibilities surely some big pump will happen. The current price is reasonable so continuous improvement will be occur on upcoming days.

 
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March 30, 2019, 04:02:37 AM
 #19

-snip-
You seem like really confident. I think we on 2 scenario case, this area will decide us where the market will go. I believe we all still not yet hit the bottom, but don't forget at these level we can break the resistance and change the trend from bearish into bullish. For right now am still using money management for cryptocurrency investing, maybe i will use my money around 10-20% at this price.


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March 30, 2019, 08:23:00 AM
 #20

Throughout history (July 2010 ) up to now, every time price closed above the weekly 20SMA (yellow), it always heads straight to 50SMA (Red) ,by always i mean ,every single time. ( couldn't zoom out the chart to show <2014 but the same thing happened before that too, you can check the chart yourself)

Although history tends to repeat itself, I will warn traders to be very careful. The last year was unusual, the market moves were not always as expected.
While a "valid" rise is indeed possible, as @omonuyak also said, there's quite a chance for a bull trap too.
Even if history repeat itself now, I will still not believe that trend as a major role in the price of bitcoin because if it is trend, then we have a company already established to be manipulating bitcoin which is impossible, even the whales will not always come into the cryptocurrency and peradventure they even come in again, it will be a different whales entirely and not be previous ones.

Hence, I think what is just happening to bitcoin now or what will happens to it that will make its price is just simply human efforts and contribution to its present status, though some factors will still come into play too this time from the past events.

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