BTC might do something nice soon. TA only ( No crystal Ball/s)

[mikeywith]

  Chart first




Green = 200 SMA
Red = 50 SMA
Yellow = 20 SMA

Chart > Weekly
---------------------------------------------------------------------


BTC right now is trading above the 20 SMA .

Throughout history (July 2010 ) up to now, every time price closed above the weekly 20SMA (yellow), it always heads straight to 50SMA (Red) ,by always i mean ,every single time. ( couldn't zoom out the chart to show <2014 but the same thing happened before that too, you can check the chart yourself)

This means , if we don't drop below 3850$ before Sunday (weekly candle close)we could very likely enter a mini-rally and see sub 5000$-5600$ in a few weeks.

however, the more likely scenario is a dip below 3800$ before Sunday to re-test the 200SMA at 3400ish

so if you are currently shorting BTC (like i am doing) , you better watch the weekly close, if you see a clear weekly candle peaking it's head above the 20SMA, you will very likely get liquidated.

The other interesting thing is this, should we drop and bounce back up from the 200 SMA( likely) , it will be very possible that we close above the 20SMA on the weekly and peak our heads to see those 5k levels again pretty soon.

note this is a weekly chart, things won't happen in a week or two, it takes months to swing between those SMAs.


also , i would like to hear what you guys think about these almost identical charts  2014-2015 vs 2018-2019. they look even more similar with the way price flirts with these SMAs.

[1714945020]

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[1714945020]

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[1714945020]

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[Slow death]

well, last week I heard some analysts say that the price would fall below $ 3800 and then I saved a little money so that in case of falling below $3800 I can buy more bitcoin, it happens that I am already the waiting to fall below $ 3800 and the price did not fall, on the contrary the price went up, it seems to me that whenever the person desires something, happens the  opposite. We'll see if you will hit your forecast.

[magneto]

This means , if we don't drop below 3850$ before Sunday (weekly candle close)we could very likely enter a mini-rally and see sub 5000$-5600$ in a few weeks.

however, the more likely scenario is a dip below 3800$ before Sunday to re-test the 200SMA at 3400ish

Both scenarios are possible.

I personally wouldn't necessarily short bitcoin at the moment though unless you're trading on high leverage (which comes with higher risks), because I don't think it's very likely that prices will drop below the $3k bottom that we've seen as the floor thus far even if we do correct below $3.8k as you say.

A recovery is imminent at this stage, and we'll most likely see some sort of major rally before the end of the year in my opinion. But in the short term, prices can certainly continue to move down, when given the fact that the market sentiment has still not reversed imho.

[mikeywith]

well, last week I heard some analysts say that the price would fall below $ 3800 and then I saved a little money so that in case of falling below $3800 I can buy more bitcoin, it happens that I am already the waiting to fall below $ 3800 and the price did not fall, on the contrary the price went up, it seems to me that whenever the person desires something, happens the  opposite. We'll see if you will hit your forecast.

The probability of falling below 3800$ atm is higher than breaking above current resistance, i initially had 3400$ as a target , but then the trend line seems a bit strong, so changed my target to 3650$ ,  i am shorting based on this 4h set up > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5071613.msg50315484#msg50315484 only aiming for 6-8% , will exist with a lose should close above prev local high on the 4h chart, but as far as the med term goes, weekly candle on Sunday should be key.

[thecodebear]

My total guess would be bitcoin moves back down towards the 200 support (during April) hitting 3600 or so, then maybe by June we see it back at 4000 looking strong like it has been recently. by the time the 50 might be down to mid 4000s and we could be looking at a boost out of the bottom range above the 50 line to start the next bull market in june or july.

total guess.

cuz i don't really see a huge bull trap going to mid-5000s and then falling back down after we've had stable 3100-4100 range for 4.5 months so far. I think any serious break about low-4000s of that magnitude (and suddenly going up 1500 above the top of the bottom range would be a huge move) will signal the start of the bull market. Bitcoin isn't as volatile as it was 4 years ago when the bottom was a 50% range from $200 to $300. If it goes up 3000s to 5000s I think that's bull market start. anyway, just guessing ;p

[1Referee]

The charts look similar because of how bots have nothing but the past to fall back on, so in that regard it makes sense that things rhyme, especially without anything in the near term to spark more spontaneous buying that lifts the price above crucial resistance levels.

For now I expect more boring market activity with how the strong support and resistance levels are coming closer to each other every day that goes by. It's waiting for a strong move either up or down, and I think that's a good thing because of how we get to know more about who is actually in charge in the very short term.

All I know is that my main target to short is somewhere between the $4500-$5000 zone with how sellers are lining up to unload some coins.

[omonuyak]

The nice things has began and we are seeing more of bull than red this days. If you look at the market behavior you will agree with me that since the beginning of this year those that are ready to sell are lesser than those that are ready to buy and that is a good signal about the market.

[NeuroticFish]

Throughout history (July 2010 ) up to now, every time price closed above the weekly 20SMA (yellow), it always heads straight to 50SMA (Red) ,by always i mean ,every single time. ( couldn't zoom out the chart to show <2014 but the same thing happened before that too, you can check the chart yourself)

Although history tends to repeat itself, I will warn traders to be very careful. The last year was unusual, the market moves were not always as expected.
While a "valid" rise is indeed possible, as @omonuyak also said, there's quite a chance for a bull trap too.

[el kaka22]

I am in love with the no crystal ball . That's amazing and that /s is a proof of reddit here which I will always love.

I think there is a potential of that move but anyone in bitcoin world knows that bitcoin doesn't really react the way you want and charts suggest most of the time, you can always find a way to build a chart that shows bitcoin going down or going up so its not really a proof of it going up next week.

Don't get me wrong it could totally go up and maybe we will hit 5k+ finally (which I would be super hyped about) but it could also not drop under 3850 and than just not go up neither, spend the whole next week between 3900-4100 prices and maybe even a whole another month there.

Bitcoin is very risky to trade just because of this, you can invest into bitcoin but if you want to trade bitcoin know that it could do anything at any moment.

[hulla]

well, last week I heard some analysts say that the price would fall below $ 3800 and then I saved a little money so that in case of falling below $3800 I can buy more bitcoin, it happens that I am already the waiting to fall below $ 3800 and the price did not fall, on the contrary the price went up, it seems to me that whenever the person desires something, happens the  opposite. We'll see if you will hit your forecast.

Concern the analysts prediction, most analyzers dont also know what the future price of the market will be which is why they also usually said their analysts is trading advice. What I'm trying to say is that the market is in 50/50 position but it has better chance to surge in price due to it resistance to dump in price for weeks and as the OP said if the market could maintain the $4K price for days then there chance for another rally.

[buwaytress]

If it's true that every single time the 50 SMA breach happens right after a close above 20SMA , I think you deserve credit for pointing out that out. Call my horizons narrow but I swear I haven't seen someone say this.

So, 3850 the level to watch for on Sunday and then we head up of the medium term? I've a crystal ball feeling we won't even see 3900 until Monday.

Pretty decent comparison, but what about relative activity or volume? Are those also matching up?

[UNOE]

This means , if we don't drop below 3850$ before Sunday (weekly candle close)we could very likely enter a mini-rally and see sub 5000$-5600$ in a few weeks.

Actually it won't be bad to see strong BTC again, but I agree with your second scenario, more than I agree with scenario above...

however, the more likely scenario is a dip below 3800$ before Sunday to re-test the 200SMA at 3400ish

We will see what will happen in three days, good points and nice trend analysis overall.
Keep in mind that BTC is currently at strong resistance.

[exstasie]

cuz i don't really see a huge bull trap going to mid-5000s and then falling back down after we've had stable 3100-4100 range for 4.5 months so far.

It's only been 3 months, and we really only became confirmed as range-bound in February. The market also moves much, much slower than in 2015 so I think people are jumping the gun a bit.

And let's look at what happened in 2015. We went sideways for half the year, only to break down below $200 again in August. That crash was strongly bought up, and then we started rising into a bull market. Bulls really haven't been tested yet regarding these bottom levels. If we don't retest the bottom, then we'll at least get a higher low like August 2015. Too many bulls are already assuming the pain is all over, which indicates to me there is no bull market coming yet.

I think any serious break about low-4000s of that magnitude (and suddenly going up 1500 above the top of the bottom range would be a huge move) will signal the start of the bull market.

What's the rationale for that? What's your school of thought on bull/bear cycles? How do you know it won't just get sold into like July 2015?

[BitHodler]

Bitcoin is very risky to trade just because of this, you can invest into bitcoin but if you want to trade bitcoin know that it could do anything at any moment.

I honestly find the market rather predictable in the short term with how most retailers with unstable moods are not participating in the market. Most short and long opportunities were quite easy to settle profitably.

I usually am quite conservative when it comes to trading, but I have taken an opportunity or two in the recent weeks to do some trading after a long period of paper trading, and it worked out well so far.

I'm currently long around $3950 and it seems to be a good move so far. My intention is to lock in profits the moment we hit $4200 because I believe that the strong resistance around that level will initiate large dumps tanking the price.

[mikeywith]

bitcoin doesn't really react the way you want and charts suggest most of the time

If the above theory is true, one can simply trade against the charts and become a millionaire.

If most of the time price will go against what TA suggests , go ahead make a bot that trades against the odds , it is pretty simple.

The crystal ball suggest that TA should not be taken as if its 100% accurate science, but whether it works or not  this is something i hate to discuss every single day, so if you do not do charts then you need a crystal ball to trade, if you don't have at least one of those two ,then you will always lose in the long run.

[STT]

Both scenarios are possible.

Most people would guess a repeat of previous which is down from 4100 area.   Its top of the range but I do expect price to explore 4500 and beyond to 6000.   Theres no real way to know if BTC will push that far this week or next or in the future

however, the more likely scenario is a dip below 3800$ before Sunday to re-test the 200SMA at 3400ish

Thats very bearish because 200 weeks is a hell of a long term average - thats really pushing the needle where as 4100 is not that extreme upwards.   Just pushing that far means we are a far more negative sentiment then many realise.   Usually some news of some type will upset it either way though I dont think thats the true determiner it can be ignition

[ricardobs]

You don't need a spirit to tell you that bitcoin is doing very nice this days and will even do more because we are getting to the tale end of the bearish market and about to enter one of the major bull run that the market have ever experienced, this is why this is the best time to make purchase of bitcoin and other crypto with great potentials because in few months we might not be able to purchase them in the current price they are now.

[ajqjjj]

You don't need a spirit to tell you that bitcoin is doing very nice this days and will even do more because we are getting to the tale end of the bearish market and about to enter one of the major bull run that the market have ever experienced, this is why this is the best time to make purchase of bitcoin and other crypto with great potentials because in few months we might not be able to purchase them in the current price they are now.

We are all know bearish market was end in this month so peoples are little happy to purchase the Bitcoin. But sometimes was move to sudden dump so some investors are little worried. I thought short term trading is good to make decent profit and If we analyse the future possibilities surely some big pump will happen. The current price is reasonable so continuous improvement will be occur on upcoming days.

[ryzaadit]

-snip-

You seem like really confident. I think we on 2 scenario case, this area will decide us where the market will go. I believe we all still not yet hit the bottom, but don't forget at these level we can break the resistance and change the trend from bearish into bullish. For right now am still using money management for cryptocurrency investing, maybe i will use my money around 10-20% at this price.

[FanEagle]

Throughout history (July 2010 ) up to now, every time price closed above the weekly 20SMA (yellow), it always heads straight to 50SMA (Red) ,by always i mean ,every single time. ( couldn't zoom out the chart to show <2014 but the same thing happened before that too, you can check the chart yourself)

Although history tends to repeat itself, I will warn traders to be very careful. The last year was unusual, the market moves were not always as expected.
While a "valid" rise is indeed possible, as @omonuyak also said, there's quite a chance for a bull trap too.

Even if history repeat itself now, I will still not believe that trend as a major role in the price of bitcoin because if it is trend, then we have a company already established to be manipulating bitcoin which is impossible, even the whales will not always come into the cryptocurrency and peradventure they even come in again, it will be a different whales entirely and not be previous ones.

Hence, I think what is just happening to bitcoin now or what will happens to it that will make its price is just simply human efforts and contribution to its present status, though some factors will still come into play too this time from the past events.

[Pab]

Yesterday was interesting
Price jumped  over 4100 even 4200 on finex then there was dump a red candle what we know from past.But support has been found on 4040 $ .Support was strong enough to stop dump. Volume was high.Now bitcoin is traded between 4060$ and 4080$
It looks good to me all together

[fourpiece]

Someone is collecting huge amount of btc before the bounce that were all waiting for will finally begin. For the past weeks bitcoin has been stable at 4000$, which is a good sign that bitcoin is ready for the take off.

[ethereumhunter]

Yesterday was interesting
Price jumped  over 4100 even 4200 on finex then there was dump a red candle what we know from past.But support has been found on 4040 $ .Support was strong enough to stop dump. Volume was high.Now bitcoin is traded between 4060$ and 4080$
It looks good to me all together

So we have a chance to see the price will be back to $4200, right? I hope that in the next week, the price will be at that price so I can sell some of the bits to gain the profit

The line still on the up although the red candle still appears, I think it will be gone in the next day. And now, we have a good price to buy more bitcoin right now while the red candle still there.

[peter0425]

Hey mikeywith,

What would you think of the recent Bithumb hacking incident? Do you think it will have a negative impact to the market, if yes then TA might be needing some adjustment as well? Thank you.

[coolcoinz]

So, according to the charts we should be heading for something similar to June 2015, a mini rally to retest the red 50, which should bring us somewhere above $5k, and possibly lead to a golden cross somewhere around... yes, June 2019. It's going to be an interesting year for sure. It's going to be funny if we don't end up getting big capitulation candle the bears have been waiting for since that big drop from 6k.

[The Cryptovator]

Bitcoin strongly trying to stay above $4K. And I think its reasonable enough due to few positive news around market. On the other hand its look bitcoin volume healthy enough. Bitcoin have to cross $4.5K and should be stable for few days before new bull run. Because still market in bear mode even most of alts are recovering due to bitcoin stability. SEC drama is main problem now a days. If they cancel all applications then it will effect one time. But drama is really annoying to growth of price. Let's see if bitcoin could break $4.5K the we could expect new small bull run at least above $5K.

[exstasie]

So, according to the charts we should be heading for something similar to June 2015, a mini rally to retest the red 50, which should bring us somewhere above $5k, and possibly lead to a golden cross somewhere around... yes, June 2019.

If 2015 is the model, then it should be later than that. The June rally failed at the 50-week MA and I would expect the same here. The golden cross didn't happen until the October rally several months later:



If we follow the same path, we're looking at a golden cross (and breakout into a bull market) sometime in Q4.

[darewaller]

I doubt if this Bitcoin is willing to give a chance for the BEAR to pull it down again, The bull are really winning for now and I see them continue to win from now on because if Bitcoin is to fall below the price it is now, the difference might not be more than $40 which will still not make it fall below $4000, so it might be heading towards $5000 from now on.

Because right now, FOMO is beginning to ginger me into putting more money because I have been waiting for $3800 mark and its seems like we might never see it again, same way I am feeling now is the way many people will out of FOMO put in more investment between now and next week.

[adaseb]

I am giving you a merit because you actually take the time to post some nice charts unlike most posters.

Regarding the yellow (20 SMA) its not a very good indicator because back in June of 2015 it gave a false break, and later on it looked like would act as support but it broke thru, then it acted as resistance and it broke thru also and finally we got that massive rally which made all the SMA point up.

However there is a good chance that the current 20 SMA might not mean anything since the 50 SMA is really far away and might not break and head straight for it.

[mikeywith]

Hey mikeywith,

What would you think of the recent Bithumb hacking incident? Do you think it will have a negative impact to the market, if yes then TA might be needing some adjustment as well? Thank you.

I do not bother with news , i trade charts and it works for me, i can not be bothered about news and i do not think the alleged hack caused or will cause price to do anything out of the ordinary.

If this weekly candle closes above 20sma then we could see some spikes we have not seen for months, if we fail to close we will very likely keep ranging between the 20SMA and 200SMA and nothing major will happen until one of these is broken.

[peter0425]

Hey mikeywith,

What would you think of the recent Bithumb hacking incident? Do you think it will have a negative impact to the market, if yes then TA might be needing some adjustment as well? Thank you.

I do not bother with news , i trade charts and it works for me, i can not be bothered about news and i do not think the alleged hack caused or will cause price to do anything out of the ordinary.

If this weekly candle closes above 20sma then we could see some spikes we have not seen for months, if we fail to close we will very likely keep ranging between the 20SMA and 200SMA and nothing major will happen until one of these is broken.

Hey, thanks for the response. Another good tips you have given us. So we should expect that the price could be in another sideways patterns unless something happen that can break it. Hopefully though that break out is a upward trend around $4200-$4500.

[Theb]

One thing to remember is that moving averages when aligned on their proper order, meaning the 20 SMA will be above 50 SMA (and the 200 SMA will be below on both of them) will signal a confirmation of the bull run. But by the looks of it you are right to say that it might actually take weeks before a bull run happens. Based from the chart you have given the 20 SMA shows no signs that it will do a crossover above the 50 SMA line, in fact it still shows that it is still going down nearing the 200 SMA which is a scary scenario to see if it crosses below that said moving average.

[lablab03]

The nice things has began and we are seeing more of bull than red this days. If you look at the market behavior you will agree with me that since the beginning of this year those that are ready to sell are lesser than those that are ready to buy and that is a good signal about the market.

true the behavior of market change now and finally it keeps showing also a sign that there will be a something good will happen soon .i hope this performance of market now will not change and will keep progressing until year end so that we can at least regain gradually  our losses on it.

[Naida_BR]

Someone is collecting huge amount of btc before the bounce that were all waiting for will finally begin. For the past weeks bitcoin has been stable at 4000$, which is a good sign that bitcoin is ready for the take off.

I think that someone has a reason to keep the price at 4k for such a long time.
Maybe it is a strategy to accumulate more bitcoins before the long bull run start. It makes me suspicious to see the price dropping immeidiately every time we have a considerable increase following a big red candle.

[Oceat]

Someone is collecting huge amount of btc before the bounce that were all waiting for will finally begin. For the past weeks bitcoin has been stable at 4000$, which is a good sign that bitcoin is ready for the take off.

I think that someone has a reason to keep the price at 4k for such a long time.
Maybe it is a strategy to accumulate more bitcoins before the long bull run start. It makes me suspicious to see the price dropping immeidiately every time we have a considerable increase following a big red candle.

If it's time to grow then it's time no matter what's the reason it is. But of course, we shouldn't be too confident to do some trading in the market since it there is a chance that this is just a bull trap but to me, it's not. Let's just wait and see what would happen after a few weeks and if this price continues to grow little every week then i think there is something that's pushing it.

[LeGaulois]

@mikeywith
Sunday is gone and BTC is at $4,150. Now, I am interested to see how the week will be. if Bitcoin could continue on this path it would be nice to get it at $4,2k-$4,3k.
Something that could be nice as well is to not see BTC failing under the $4,100.

[mikeywith]

@mikeywith
Sunday is gone and BTC is at $4,150. Now, I am interested to see how the week will be. if Bitcoin could continue on this path it would be nice to get it at $4,2k-$4,3k.
Something that could be nice as well is to not see BTC failing under the $4,100.

The weekly candle did close above 20sma, current overview is bullish, we have some resistence on small tf at 4200$ area but i suppose we will break it pretty soon, we have also gotten back above the up trend line which we fell below on 4h tf. Let is see if we hit 5k in 2-3 weeks

[Astargath]

I don't know basing most of your technical analysis on SMa's seems like a bad idea. It is not the first time that bitcoin breaks the 20 moving average and then drops right down, however it does look like a big move is going to happen soon. It basically reminds me of the market before the last crash, lack of volume, sideways trading, even though it's a bit more bullish than last time, not exactly sideways but still quite sideways for something as volatile as bitcoin. Perhaps a big bull breakout will happen this time and we can recover back to 6k+ but who knows, until we have some clarity you can't be sure.

[NeuroticFish]

This means , if we don't drop below 3850$ before Sunday (weekly candle close)we could very likely enter a mini-rally and see sub 5000$-5600$ in a few weeks.

Wow, your "no crystal ball" seems to work good. I have to admit, I hoped for growth, but didn't expect such a big green candle.
Just.. we passed 5000$ extremely quick, clearly not in weeks, and now the price is obviously adjusting downwards.
I hope it'll stop falling before going under 4100$. Of course, I don't mind if it'll go sky high 

Anyway. Great job, OP!

[Pab]

Incredible move
How do you think mikeywith what will happen that week
i hope for consolidation between 4600-5000 than break to 5500$
Today break was on volume
There was 9mln $ buy on Bittrex.I talk about dollar not usdt.Dollar volume on trex is much bigger than usdt
Interesting point is that yesterday dollar index has fail below 200 MA .Next day bitcoin move above 200 MA
 i am saying nothing is accidental

[mikeywith]

ok let's make an update.

the coming chart as well as the above are all from Bitfinex, so they might look a lil different from yours.

as you may know, i got screwed with my last short position   lost 4% ,i entered a long position @4160$ ( after the weekly close above 20sma) and i had to sell at flat 5000$ despite the fact the we still have a room to go up, i couldn't resist 20% profit especially after having a terrible loss on my last short.

now let's get a bit realistic with what to expect ?

i did mention that

This means , if we don't drop below 3850$ before Sunday (weekly candle close)we could very likely enter a mini-rally and see sub 5000$-5600$ in a few weeks.

we went to as high as 5108$ , do we still have more room to the upside ?  yes ! , should i wait for exactly 5600$ before taking profit ? NO.





above is a daily chart, let's dig.

what do we have to worry about

1- 1 year old trend line from Feb 2018 ( very very powerful)
2- 200sma on the daily  ( very powerful)


the bigger picture on the weekly suggest that we would still move higher, but the daily suggest other wise, for this rally to keep up and actually does touch 5.4k/5.5k/5.6k we need to see a daily candle close above both points mentioned above.


I don't how to explain this to you, but these are meant for day traders, if you are buying for long term investment, then you should not bother about all my TAs, but if you are a day trader then you should take the above 2 points very seriously.

as long as we are trading below those points, we are likely going to have a correction to the downside, the moment we break them we should see another huge candle.

if you entered at the weekly close then you are now at decent profit, move your SL to break even, and start taking profits slowly.

we can very likely test 5600$ but i would exist all long positions and probably enter short positions at 5450$.

will try to keep this thread updated.

[Astargath]

Meh, Yeah, this was a huge move to the upside but remember this only happened in 2 hours, the volume is decent but not amazing, until i see some continuation the next days I will be skeptical of this move, we have seen moves like this in the past where bitcoin gains 10-15% in a few hours just to trade sideways for days/weeks and then to eventually lose it all.

[LeGaulois]

...

Possibly, unless this rumor is true. Reuters: Bitcoin jumps 20 percent, mystery order seen as catalyst. In such case, the BTC could drop to what it was 2-3 days ago. But the last time such an event occurred was in 2015, just before the Bitcoin began its nice rise.  Maybe Bitcoin could reproduce the same thing.

[fasdorcas]

The nice things has began and we are seeing more of bull than red this days. If you look at the market behavior you will agree with me that since the beginning of this year those that are ready to sell are lesser than those that are ready to buy and that is a good signal about the market.

true the behavior of market change now and finally it keeps showing also a sign that there will be a something good will happen soon .i hope this performance of market now will not change and will keep progressing until year end so that we can at least regain gradually  our losses on it.

From your word, I can sense a long lasting system because in this, we will always have investors like you that will stay long on their investment, we have some investors that once they see little improvement tomorrow, they will sell off and this kills the market, as we are witnessing progress in the price gradually, if we all can keep watching it grow till end of the year, it will make us profit and at the same time stabilize the coin because at every growth, we will always have investors that will fill in any sell done by the older investors, so by this, the market will not forcefully go into bear market again.

[DeathAngel]

Bitcoin’s doing something very nice right now. Interested to see your continued TA mikey, what do you predict the price range to by at the end of Q4 2019?

[1Referee]

Meh, Yeah, this was a huge move to the upside but remember this only happened in 2 hours, the volume is decent but not amazing, until i see some continuation the next days I will be skeptical of this move, we have seen moves like this in the past where bitcoin gains 10-15% in a few hours just to trade sideways for days/weeks and then to eventually lose it all.

The volumes are quite nice actually. If you focus on Bitstamp, Kraken and Coinbase Pro, you'll see that there are waves of buy orders coming through that signal demand. Some investors trade based on confirmations, and with how we broke through all previous local lower highs with such a fierce candle, they see that as a start of an up trend.

It's going to be interesting to see at what level the weekly candle closes. This could very well indicate a trend reversal with the charts actually backing it. I am currently short when it comes to trading, but I stacked up quite some satoshis under $4000 for long term holding purposes, so I am good either way.

[ausbit]

Meh, Yeah, this was a huge move to the upside but remember this only happened in 2 hours, the volume is decent but not amazing, until i see some continuation the next days I will be skeptical of this move, we have seen moves like this in the past where bitcoin gains 10-15% in a few hours just to trade sideways for days/weeks and then to eventually lose it all.

I also await its continuation of this price trend too, looking at the analysis I have studied out there from great analyst, I can conclude that the breakout we witnessed has really been long due and will set a good point for the next bull run, this is how we are expected to gradually reach the ATH of bitcoin and some other altcoins provided we investor will allow it to be.

Bitcoin is expected to peak at $10,000 at the end of the year and I do hope many investors will not rush to quickly take profit on seeing that, because I am sure by then, it will be heading towards $15,000 early next year before the halving.

[Pab]

We have next break.BTC is traded 5220$ on Trex and 5230$ on finex
BTC broke 5200 with impressive green candle
I cancelled my sell on 5450 $ wait for 6000$ battle
5 min update 5300$ already

[exstasie]

We have next break.BTC is traded 5220$ on Trex and 5230$ on finex
BTC broke 5200 with impressive green candle
I cancelled my sell on 5450 $ wait for 6000$ battle
5 min update 5300$ already

I'm not loving how fast this is moving. I was hoping for a bull flag to form after the initial push to $5K yesterday. That would allow us to coil up momentum for a test on $6K. Usually when price squeezes upwards like this without stopping to consolidate, the move burns out much quicker. I'm starting to think this might burn out very fast like the Dec 15-23 rally. Maybe a stab into $5,500-$5,800 in a few days but not the slow and steady move I was hoping for.

[mikeywith]

This is probably it for the week, we should now have low volume,not much movement to either side , we will probably go down a hundred or two every day from now till next week, just to draw a sort of bull flag, then break it towards 5600$-5700$ , then we will probably enter a bear market again for about 6-8 weeks till 3400$-3600$ (200sma on the weekly) and if that 200sma holds "again", we will probably enter the new bull market that will go on for years till 80-100k.

let's see if we do hit 5600$ the a few coming days  and bounce back, then 2014-2015 charts will have more weight than ever.

[Pab]

Thanks mikeywith
I hope btc will defend 4600$ move higher and will not comeback to below 4k level
tomorrow is Friday there are is little volume during weekend
Maybe weekenders will drive price up and bulls will decide to spike price higher after
There is still Brexit in play.If will be no deal than pound will lost 15% and GB will be frozen for next three months

[StarofBTC]

This is probably it for the week, we should now have low volume,not much movement to either side , we will probably go down a hundred or two every day from now till next week, just to draw a sort of bull flag, then break it towards 5600$-5700$ , then we will probably enter a bear market again for about 6-8 weeks till 3400$-3600$ (200sma on the weekly) and if that 200sma holds "again", we will probably enter the new bull market that will go on for years till 80-100k.

let's see if we do hit 5600$ the a few coming days  and bounce back, then 2014-2015 charts will have more weight than ever.

I hope you are not trying to base your prediction on the past because I don’t think the past chart can really decide what will happen to BTC now.  For now I don’t really see Bitcoin crossing that line back to bear market, even if it will do, it will only be a little bit back to $4500, from there till the ATH speculated, by then the things contributing to its growth will decided if the price will push harder to ATH of $80k predicted by you or break along the line or pushing further to one of the $200k prediction, but I know a time will come that bitcoin will reach ATH till it becomes stable for life, by then its real objective will finally come to play.

[mikeywith]

I hope you are not trying to base your prediction on the past

not sure if you have read the OP, i am indeed basing my prediction on the past, everything that has to do with TA is based on the past.

i used to think the same way many people think, going by the theory that BTC now is different than before, it can't do this and it can't do that, but everyday this theory gets weaker and weaker.

 in 2014/15 we dropped about 85% from ATH, last year when were where at 6k everybody and their mother said that there is noway we would fall below that, no way btc would fall 85% from ATH, it's different now, the whales are here,adoption , lightning ,seqwit ,Binance, ETF all these things make btc different from 2014 bla bla bla bla and then boom we fall right at almost the same % we did 5 years ago.

[Bonsaiav]

The development of value trends in the past usually tends to be more closely related in forecasting trend values in the future, so I agree with the OP. In my opinion, the dependence on trends at a better chronological point when played plays an important role (so, the order of observation's important).

The crypto market's still very vulnerable to falling prices again due to various factors mentioned by the OP (The Whales, Adoption, Lightning, Segwit, Binance, KYC and ETF) although some facts show that the current market slump is believed to be over soon. Nevertheless, we must be able to make conclusions from the realization that's happening now. And we also have to be sure that the bitcoin will 'slowly' rise in price again, so there's no doubt for investors to buy bitcoin under these conditions.

[mikeywith]

The problem with btc is that it has no real life use case yet, most people treat btc as it is just a random thing that could rise in value and they would be able to sell at higher price( for fiat ).

Many investors never actually had access to the btc they think they buy, bitmex is one example.

So as long we don't have people buying bitcoin for sake of actually using it then the strongest analysis will always come from charts whether we like it or not.  

[TravelMug]

This is probably it for the week, we should now have low volume,not much movement to either side , we will probably go down a hundred or two every day from now till next week, just to draw a sort of bull flag, then break it towards 5600$-5700$ , then we will probably enter a bear market again for about 6-8 weeks till 3400$-3600$ (200sma on the weekly) and if that 200sma holds "again", we will probably enter the new bull market that will go on for years till 80-100k.

let's see if we do hit 5600$ the a few coming days  and bounce back, then 2014-2015 charts will have more weight than ever.

Right we already hit above $5k already so most likely $5600 is within reach maybe in the next week or so. So its going to be interesting to see your analysis based on 2014-2015 chart.

Others said that past performance is not a indication of future success, but we will see. The market is fairly young and we can also draw based on the data that we have, specially there is a eerie similarity from the 2014-2015 movement.

[exstasie]

Looking at Bitfinex commitment of traders, shorts have been rising and longs have been falling over the past few days of consolidation. That reinforces the idea of another leg up: these accumulating shorts can be squeezed and there's still room for more longs. In other words, there's still some gas left in the tank. I'm still looking for a leg up from this flag.

The problem with btc is that it has no real life use case yet, most people treat btc as it is just a random thing that could rise in value and they would be able to sell at higher price( for fiat ).

Many investors never actually had access to the btc they think they buy, bitmex is one example.

So as long we don't have people buying bitcoin for sake of actually using it then the strongest analysis will always come from charts whether we like it or not.  

I strongly believe that fundamentals are always reflected in the charts anyway. Since Bitcoin's fundamentals are so abstract (you can't break them down to analyzable numbers like P/E ratio or P/B ratio or debt-to-equity or cash flow), I think the charts will always provide the strongest basis for analysis.

[mikeywith]

just in case we don't follow prev charts 100%  , i always like to consider all the possibilities and to be able to plan and act accordingly.

so let's dig into the chart on the daily time frame.





Green = support
Red = Resistance


possible scenarios

A - (very weak ) price keeps moving up, a clove about major resistance and start of a new rally . i don't see shit like that happening now ! but if we close above it, should you sit there and wait for scenario B to happen? indeed not.


B ( very strong)

a retrace from the major resistance area, a correction towards one of the support trends/lines

previous chart suggest we fall to the 200sma on the weekly which would be around 3500$  but it's not 100% sure to happen , so here are major support areas i would be looking to buy at

1-purple trend-line (around 4600$)
2-horizontal support area from 4100$ to 4300$
3-20 SMA (currently at around 3900$-4000$)
4-200SMA(currently at around 3500$)

depending on the price action that forms when we approach each of those areas i will be planing to take long positions from there. already took a good profit from this spike, last portion will be sold at 5500-5600$ and will probably enter short positions at that level too.

[mikeywith]

The moment of truth is here, BTC is has touched the 50SMA on the weekly, to be honest, i did not expect this rally to go to this, too bad i sold a bit earlier, but i guess I did the right the thing based on what i saw then.







what is it going to be? keep following the 2014-2015 patterns and retrace to 4k or even possibly 3.xxx$  ? or are we going to close above the 50SMA as well as the strong resistance at 5.8-6.2k and really start the bull market ?


despite the fact that i sold a bit lower than i initially thought in the OP, the fact that we still touched the 50SMA regardless of how exhausted the bulls seemed to be, this adds more weight to the current market being a mirror image of 2014-2015, and this does give the first scenario of dropping from the 50SMA much higher probability than simply closing above it and starting a new bull run.


what i am personally doing right now is actually adding more short positions, i do believe it's a very good level to short here, given the risk:reward ratio.

will be looking to long btc at the next possible support, and will indeed keep some fiat for a possible 3.xk again, having said that, should price close above the coming resistance, i will have  to close my shorts with a loss and re-evaluate everything again.

[figmentofmyass]

what i am personally doing right now is actually adding more short positions, i do believe it's a very good level to short here, given the risk:reward ratio.

you've got some big balls on ya!

i agree with you actually re r/r, but since we just pushed new highs, it seems appropriate to wait a few days for bullish momentum to die out. we are definitely near major resistance at $5500-$6k, with the 50ma here as well like you said. i would be very surprised if we bulldozed right through it.

but i'm still waiting to short until i see an obvious signal. a shooting star (or similar wicking) on the daily with volume that suggests exhaustion would be ideal.

[alyssa85]

 Chart first




Green = 200 SMA
Red = 50 SMA
Yellow = 20 SMA

Chart > Weekly
---------------------------------------------------------------------


BTC right now is trading above the 20 SMA .

Throughout history (July 2010 ) up to now, every time price closed above the weekly 20SMA (yellow), it always heads straight to 50SMA (Red) ,by always i mean ,every single time. ( couldn't zoom out the chart to show <2014 but the same thing happened before that too, you can check the chart yourself)

This means , if we don't drop below 3850$ before Sunday (weekly candle close)we could very likely enter a mini-rally and see sub 5000$-5600$ in a few weeks.

however, the more likely scenario is a dip below 3800$ before Sunday to re-test the 200SMA at 3400ish

so if you are currently shorting BTC (like i am doing) , you better watch the weekly close, if you see a clear weekly candle peaking it's head above the 20SMA, you will very likely get liquidated.

The other interesting thing is this, should we drop and bounce back up from the 200 SMA( likely) , it will be very possible that we close above the 20SMA on the weekly and peak our heads to see those 5k levels again pretty soon.

note this is a weekly chart, things won't happen in a week or two, it takes months to swing between those SMAs.


also , i would like to hear what you guys think about these almost identical charts  2014-2015 vs 2018-2019. they look even more similar with the way price flirts with these SMAs.

Well done! Turns you were spot on. Hope you made a decent profit trading the pattern.

[mikeywith]

but i'm still waiting to short until i see an obvious signal. a shooting star (or similar wicking) on the daily with volume that suggests exhaustion would be ideal.

it makes sense to wait for a stronger single, i have been a bit aggressive with my trading, differently not reckless, just not as conservative, in fact looking at smaller time frames you can start seeing some divergence,  it's only a matter of time till we start collapsing, so let's wait and see how it goes, i won't mind losing this trade to see btc breaking these strong areas.

Well done! Turns you were spot on. Hope you made a decent profit trading the pattern.

thanks pal, hope you made use of it too, stay tuned more to come 

[STT]

but i'm still waiting to short until i see an obvious signal.

Its generally a better idea to wait for that signal and join the trend, the decline that is.    Being too early is the same as being wrong, sure I heard that before a few times.    In trading terms thats correct but scaling into a short here, I generally agree with because I know I'll miss the precise point and I havent the time to be watching always.   I'll be distracted or busy elsewhere, its just the way it always goes.    Plus I really think BTC goes in 4 stages to a move or trend change as its more globally traded then traditional markets, 24hr is roughly 4 sets of a 6 hour trading 'day' some of which overlap.    Maybe Forex resembles that better

[BitHodler]

it's only a matter of time till we start collapsing, so let's wait and see how it goes, i won't mind losing this trade to see btc breaking these strong areas.

I kept waiting as long as I could, but we're near the important $100 billion market cap, which for me is reason enough to short, and I did. I managed to settle my short at $5500 and some change.

Could it go up a little more? Sure, but I don't see any reason for that with how much we have gone up already and the resistance we will face around the $6000 mark. 2x leverage is conservative enough to avoid getting wiped out.

Another thing is that the sentiment is too positive in my opinion, which usually means that a correction could be due, but we'll see how it goes. I at least have put my money where my mouth is.

[exstasie]

Another thing is that the sentiment is too positive in my opinion, which usually means that a correction could be due, but we'll see how it goes.

In a broad sense yes, sentiment is too positive to indicate bull market conditions. The start of bull markets are usually characterized by "wall of worry" sentiment and general disbelief about rising prices. So it's likely we'll see a sizeable correction sooner than later.

I'm not sure it's coming quite yet though. After consolidating for several days and making new local highs overnight, we just triggered a new short term uptrend.

Shorts are also rising considerably on Bitfinex: they're up 40% over the past week. Shorts must also be high on Bitmex because funding rate is not only negative but it's quite high (-0.0617%). I'm guessing there's another short squeeze left before we reverse back downward.

[mikeywith]

I think you did the right thing there, not saying this because i did the same, but the charts are screaming for a massive dip, i feel bad for all the fomo guys who are buying at these prices, they may get lucky but i highly doubt it, 3.8-3.9k is  very likely going to happen by next month, a 30% drop is something that can make many people go broke, i hope the fomo boys are not going balls deep this time.

[vit05]

Shorts must also be high on Bitmex because funding rate is not only negative but it's quite high (-0.0617%). I'm guessing there's another short squeeze left before we reverse back downward.

What site do you use to view the funding rate? I use tugWar to see the short-and-long short-term dispute, but I only know Bitmex itself to see the funding rate.

[BitHodler]

I think you did the right thing there, not saying this because i did the same, but the charts are screaming for a massive dip, i feel bad for all the fomo guys who are buying at these prices, they may get lucky but i highly doubt it, 3.8-3.9k is  very likely going to happen by next month, a 30% drop is something that can make many people go broke, i hope the fomo boys are not going balls deep this time.

Turns out I indeed did the right thing. I'm holding my short open because I expect the price to plummet further. I'm not sure how realistic sub $4000 levels are, but if that's going to happen anyway I won't complain.

As for the fomo buyers, people don't know what risk management is. They jump in and out with everything they got, and more often than not with ridiculous leverage multipliers. Gamblers eventually pay the price, always.

[mikeywith]

we got to as low as 4960$ on some exchanges, that's about 10% from entry, you sure might have a different strategy , but mine consist of small potions, where i lock in profit along the way to secure the lot as whole, so should price go against me for whatever opened potions, the profit from the once i closed will cover that up , this indeed lowers my potential profit but given the fact that i have been a bit aggressive with my entries, it only makes sense to be conservative with my exists.


and by the way, i started a new topic regarding the possible fall to 3800$ > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5136199.msg50774916#msg50774916

i don't want to confuse anyone since the  tittle of this one says something "nice" which is differently not the case for the current situation, at least to most people.