BTC might do something nice soon. TA only ( No crystal Ball/s)

[mikeywith]

ok let's make an update.

the coming chart as well as the above are all from Bitfinex, so they might look a lil different from yours.

as you may know, i got screwed with my last short position   lost 4% ,i entered a long position @4160$ ( after the weekly close above 20sma) and i had to sell at flat 5000$ despite the fact the we still have a room to go up, i couldn't resist 20% profit especially after having a terrible loss on my last short.

now let's get a bit realistic with what to expect ?

i did mention that

This means , if we don't drop below 3850$ before Sunday (weekly candle close)we could very likely enter a mini-rally and see sub 5000$-5600$ in a few weeks.

we went to as high as 5108$ , do we still have more room to the upside ?  yes ! , should i wait for exactly 5600$ before taking profit ? NO.





above is a daily chart, let's dig.

what do we have to worry about

1- 1 year old trend line from Feb 2018 ( very very powerful)
2- 200sma on the daily  ( very powerful)


the bigger picture on the weekly suggest that we would still move higher, but the daily suggest other wise, for this rally to keep up and actually does touch 5.4k/5.5k/5.6k we need to see a daily candle close above both points mentioned above.


I don't how to explain this to you, but these are meant for day traders, if you are buying for long term investment, then you should not bother about all my TAs, but if you are a day trader then you should take the above 2 points very seriously.

as long as we are trading below those points, we are likely going to have a correction to the downside, the moment we break them we should see another huge candle.

if you entered at the weekly close then you are now at decent profit, move your SL to break even, and start taking profits slowly.

we can very likely test 5600$ but i would exist all long positions and probably enter short positions at 5450$.

will try to keep this thread updated.

[Astargath]

Meh, Yeah, this was a huge move to the upside but remember this only happened in 2 hours, the volume is decent but not amazing, until i see some continuation the next days I will be skeptical of this move, we have seen moves like this in the past where bitcoin gains 10-15% in a few hours just to trade sideways for days/weeks and then to eventually lose it all.

[LeGaulois]

...

Possibly, unless this rumor is true. Reuters: Bitcoin jumps 20 percent, mystery order seen as catalyst. In such case, the BTC could drop to what it was 2-3 days ago. But the last time such an event occurred was in 2015, just before the Bitcoin began its nice rise.  Maybe Bitcoin could reproduce the same thing.

[fasdorcas]

The nice things has began and we are seeing more of bull than red this days. If you look at the market behavior you will agree with me that since the beginning of this year those that are ready to sell are lesser than those that are ready to buy and that is a good signal about the market.

true the behavior of market change now and finally it keeps showing also a sign that there will be a something good will happen soon .i hope this performance of market now will not change and will keep progressing until year end so that we can at least regain gradually  our losses on it.

From your word, I can sense a long lasting system because in this, we will always have investors like you that will stay long on their investment, we have some investors that once they see little improvement tomorrow, they will sell off and this kills the market, as we are witnessing progress in the price gradually, if we all can keep watching it grow till end of the year, it will make us profit and at the same time stabilize the coin because at every growth, we will always have investors that will fill in any sell done by the older investors, so by this, the market will not forcefully go into bear market again.

[DeathAngel]

Bitcoin’s doing something very nice right now. Interested to see your continued TA mikey, what do you predict the price range to by at the end of Q4 2019?

[1Referee]

Meh, Yeah, this was a huge move to the upside but remember this only happened in 2 hours, the volume is decent but not amazing, until i see some continuation the next days I will be skeptical of this move, we have seen moves like this in the past where bitcoin gains 10-15% in a few hours just to trade sideways for days/weeks and then to eventually lose it all.

The volumes are quite nice actually. If you focus on Bitstamp, Kraken and Coinbase Pro, you'll see that there are waves of buy orders coming through that signal demand. Some investors trade based on confirmations, and with how we broke through all previous local lower highs with such a fierce candle, they see that as a start of an up trend.

It's going to be interesting to see at what level the weekly candle closes. This could very well indicate a trend reversal with the charts actually backing it. I am currently short when it comes to trading, but I stacked up quite some satoshis under $4000 for long term holding purposes, so I am good either way.

[ausbit]

Meh, Yeah, this was a huge move to the upside but remember this only happened in 2 hours, the volume is decent but not amazing, until i see some continuation the next days I will be skeptical of this move, we have seen moves like this in the past where bitcoin gains 10-15% in a few hours just to trade sideways for days/weeks and then to eventually lose it all.

I also await its continuation of this price trend too, looking at the analysis I have studied out there from great analyst, I can conclude that the breakout we witnessed has really been long due and will set a good point for the next bull run, this is how we are expected to gradually reach the ATH of bitcoin and some other altcoins provided we investor will allow it to be.

Bitcoin is expected to peak at $10,000 at the end of the year and I do hope many investors will not rush to quickly take profit on seeing that, because I am sure by then, it will be heading towards $15,000 early next year before the halving.

[Pab]

We have next break.BTC is traded 5220$ on Trex and 5230$ on finex
BTC broke 5200 with impressive green candle
I cancelled my sell on 5450 $ wait for 6000$ battle
5 min update 5300$ already

[exstasie]

We have next break.BTC is traded 5220$ on Trex and 5230$ on finex
BTC broke 5200 with impressive green candle
I cancelled my sell on 5450 $ wait for 6000$ battle
5 min update 5300$ already

I'm not loving how fast this is moving. I was hoping for a bull flag to form after the initial push to $5K yesterday. That would allow us to coil up momentum for a test on $6K. Usually when price squeezes upwards like this without stopping to consolidate, the move burns out much quicker. I'm starting to think this might burn out very fast like the Dec 15-23 rally. Maybe a stab into $5,500-$5,800 in a few days but not the slow and steady move I was hoping for.

[mikeywith]

This is probably it for the week, we should now have low volume,not much movement to either side , we will probably go down a hundred or two every day from now till next week, just to draw a sort of bull flag, then break it towards 5600$-5700$ , then we will probably enter a bear market again for about 6-8 weeks till 3400$-3600$ (200sma on the weekly) and if that 200sma holds "again", we will probably enter the new bull market that will go on for years till 80-100k.

let's see if we do hit 5600$ the a few coming days  and bounce back, then 2014-2015 charts will have more weight than ever.

[Pab]

Thanks mikeywith
I hope btc will defend 4600$ move higher and will not comeback to below 4k level
tomorrow is Friday there are is little volume during weekend
Maybe weekenders will drive price up and bulls will decide to spike price higher after
There is still Brexit in play.If will be no deal than pound will lost 15% and GB will be frozen for next three months

[StarofBTC]

This is probably it for the week, we should now have low volume,not much movement to either side , we will probably go down a hundred or two every day from now till next week, just to draw a sort of bull flag, then break it towards 5600$-5700$ , then we will probably enter a bear market again for about 6-8 weeks till 3400$-3600$ (200sma on the weekly) and if that 200sma holds "again", we will probably enter the new bull market that will go on for years till 80-100k.

let's see if we do hit 5600$ the a few coming days  and bounce back, then 2014-2015 charts will have more weight than ever.

I hope you are not trying to base your prediction on the past because I don’t think the past chart can really decide what will happen to BTC now.  For now I don’t really see Bitcoin crossing that line back to bear market, even if it will do, it will only be a little bit back to $4500, from there till the ATH speculated, by then the things contributing to its growth will decided if the price will push harder to ATH of $80k predicted by you or break along the line or pushing further to one of the $200k prediction, but I know a time will come that bitcoin will reach ATH till it becomes stable for life, by then its real objective will finally come to play.

[mikeywith]

I hope you are not trying to base your prediction on the past

not sure if you have read the OP, i am indeed basing my prediction on the past, everything that has to do with TA is based on the past.

i used to think the same way many people think, going by the theory that BTC now is different than before, it can't do this and it can't do that, but everyday this theory gets weaker and weaker.

 in 2014/15 we dropped about 85% from ATH, last year when were where at 6k everybody and their mother said that there is noway we would fall below that, no way btc would fall 85% from ATH, it's different now, the whales are here,adoption , lightning ,seqwit ,Binance, ETF all these things make btc different from 2014 bla bla bla bla and then boom we fall right at almost the same % we did 5 years ago.

[Bonsaiav]

The development of value trends in the past usually tends to be more closely related in forecasting trend values in the future, so I agree with the OP. In my opinion, the dependence on trends at a better chronological point when played plays an important role (so, the order of observation's important).

The crypto market's still very vulnerable to falling prices again due to various factors mentioned by the OP (The Whales, Adoption, Lightning, Segwit, Binance, KYC and ETF) although some facts show that the current market slump is believed to be over soon. Nevertheless, we must be able to make conclusions from the realization that's happening now. And we also have to be sure that the bitcoin will 'slowly' rise in price again, so there's no doubt for investors to buy bitcoin under these conditions.

[mikeywith]

The problem with btc is that it has no real life use case yet, most people treat btc as it is just a random thing that could rise in value and they would be able to sell at higher price( for fiat ).

Many investors never actually had access to the btc they think they buy, bitmex is one example.

So as long we don't have people buying bitcoin for sake of actually using it then the strongest analysis will always come from charts whether we like it or not.  

[TravelMug]

This is probably it for the week, we should now have low volume,not much movement to either side , we will probably go down a hundred or two every day from now till next week, just to draw a sort of bull flag, then break it towards 5600$-5700$ , then we will probably enter a bear market again for about 6-8 weeks till 3400$-3600$ (200sma on the weekly) and if that 200sma holds "again", we will probably enter the new bull market that will go on for years till 80-100k.

let's see if we do hit 5600$ the a few coming days  and bounce back, then 2014-2015 charts will have more weight than ever.

Right we already hit above $5k already so most likely $5600 is within reach maybe in the next week or so. So its going to be interesting to see your analysis based on 2014-2015 chart.

Others said that past performance is not a indication of future success, but we will see. The market is fairly young and we can also draw based on the data that we have, specially there is a eerie similarity from the 2014-2015 movement.

[exstasie]

Looking at Bitfinex commitment of traders, shorts have been rising and longs have been falling over the past few days of consolidation. That reinforces the idea of another leg up: these accumulating shorts can be squeezed and there's still room for more longs. In other words, there's still some gas left in the tank. I'm still looking for a leg up from this flag.

The problem with btc is that it has no real life use case yet, most people treat btc as it is just a random thing that could rise in value and they would be able to sell at higher price( for fiat ).

Many investors never actually had access to the btc they think they buy, bitmex is one example.

So as long we don't have people buying bitcoin for sake of actually using it then the strongest analysis will always come from charts whether we like it or not.  

I strongly believe that fundamentals are always reflected in the charts anyway. Since Bitcoin's fundamentals are so abstract (you can't break them down to analyzable numbers like P/E ratio or P/B ratio or debt-to-equity or cash flow), I think the charts will always provide the strongest basis for analysis.

[mikeywith]

just in case we don't follow prev charts 100%  , i always like to consider all the possibilities and to be able to plan and act accordingly.

so let's dig into the chart on the daily time frame.





Green = support
Red = Resistance


possible scenarios

A - (very weak ) price keeps moving up, a clove about major resistance and start of a new rally . i don't see shit like that happening now ! but if we close above it, should you sit there and wait for scenario B to happen? indeed not.


B ( very strong)

a retrace from the major resistance area, a correction towards one of the support trends/lines

previous chart suggest we fall to the 200sma on the weekly which would be around 3500$  but it's not 100% sure to happen , so here are major support areas i would be looking to buy at

1-purple trend-line (around 4600$)
2-horizontal support area from 4100$ to 4300$
3-20 SMA (currently at around 3900$-4000$)
4-200SMA(currently at around 3500$)

depending on the price action that forms when we approach each of those areas i will be planing to take long positions from there. already took a good profit from this spike, last portion will be sold at 5500-5600$ and will probably enter short positions at that level too.

[mikeywith]

The moment of truth is here, BTC is has touched the 50SMA on the weekly, to be honest, i did not expect this rally to go to this, too bad i sold a bit earlier, but i guess I did the right the thing based on what i saw then.







what is it going to be? keep following the 2014-2015 patterns and retrace to 4k or even possibly 3.xxx$  ? or are we going to close above the 50SMA as well as the strong resistance at 5.8-6.2k and really start the bull market ?


despite the fact that i sold a bit lower than i initially thought in the OP, the fact that we still touched the 50SMA regardless of how exhausted the bulls seemed to be, this adds more weight to the current market being a mirror image of 2014-2015, and this does give the first scenario of dropping from the 50SMA much higher probability than simply closing above it and starting a new bull run.


what i am personally doing right now is actually adding more short positions, i do believe it's a very good level to short here, given the risk:reward ratio.

will be looking to long btc at the next possible support, and will indeed keep some fiat for a possible 3.xk again, having said that, should price close above the coming resistance, i will have  to close my shorts with a loss and re-evaluate everything again.

[figmentofmyass]

what i am personally doing right now is actually adding more short positions, i do believe it's a very good level to short here, given the risk:reward ratio.

you've got some big balls on ya!

i agree with you actually re r/r, but since we just pushed new highs, it seems appropriate to wait a few days for bullish momentum to die out. we are definitely near major resistance at $5500-$6k, with the 50ma here as well like you said. i would be very surprised if we bulldozed right through it.

but i'm still waiting to short until i see an obvious signal. a shooting star (or similar wicking) on the daily with volume that suggests exhaustion would be ideal.