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Author Topic: 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave)  (Read 2826 times)
xxxx123abcxxxx
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July 02, 2019, 11:45:11 PM
Last edit: July 03, 2019, 12:47:05 AM by xxxx123abcxxxx
Merited by prophetx (40), LeGaulois (1)
 #81

Please Help Me to under stand Elite Wave in BITCOIN..? Huh Huh Huh Huh Huh Huh Huh
" as per your previous Elite Wave theory you show me how bear market will continuance for 2 year cycle and you also mention "
as off no i really look like struggle for how to understand market behavior..? and i can't able to understand elite wave theory currently.
i am not able to apply formula on bitcoin chart, are we in ABC corrections Or WXY Wave ..? Please Help Me to under stand Elite Wave in BITCOIN

The last post of the 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) thread mentioned the following:

At this stage, the market would have to exceed $5890 BITFINEX to confirm a new bull market.
Exceeding $5178 BITFINEX would provide an early signal to consider a potential change of trend.

Since 05-APR-2019, the following two Elliott Wave scenarios are currently under consideration; either:

1. The current 2019 bull market is a wave-5 of Primary degree heading towards new all-time highs; or,
2. The current 2019 bull market is a wave-X of Primary degree as part of an all overall bearish W-X-Y structure.

The aforementioned scenarios have thus far been tracked in the following posts:

      05-APR-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Bull Market…?
      https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50467456#msg50467456
 
      20-APR-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Easter Update
      https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50681435#msg50681435

      12-MAY-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Sell In May And Go Away?
      https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51017295#msg51017295

      17-JUN-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Solstice Update
      https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51505513#msg51505513

The following book is a recommendation to understand Elliott Wave theory:

      Elliott Wave Principle: Key To Market Behavior
      by A.J. Frost, Robert R. Prechter (ISBN: 9780471988496)
      https://ufile.io/a2zr6ofv (78MB) [expires 01-AUG-2019]

The following guesswork summarizes the preferred Elliott Wave model of this thread thus far (indicative of price/structure, not time):



Hope the above answers your questions.
  
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July 27, 2019, 03:03:00 PM
Last edit: July 27, 2019, 03:14:02 PM by fabiorem
 #82

The month is ending, and we didnt see 5k nor 7k. Will we have a new Elliott Wave analysis?
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July 27, 2019, 06:11:33 PM
 #83

The month is ending, and we didnt see 5k nor 7k. Will we have a new Elliott Wave analysis?


Not sure where you got those numbers. As far as I can see, the last analysis (on this very page) tells nothing about 5k or 7k this month. I assume it is still actual, though it might benefit from a little update.

... this space is not for rent ...
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July 27, 2019, 06:15:16 PM
 #84

The month is ending, and we didnt see 5k nor 7k. Will we have a new Elliott Wave analysis?

Was he was ever aiming as low as $5K? I didn't think so. Anyway, his projection indicates price/structure, not time. I don't think he has any reason to change the count yet, as nothing has been invalidated.

From EW perspective, we could still be on track for $7K (although I think that's too far to expect myself).

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July 28, 2019, 01:41:44 AM
Merited by criptix (5), figmentofmyass (5), micgoossens (3), josegines (1)
 #85

2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Inflection Point
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/cipwdi/2019_cryptocurrency_elliott_wave_inflection_point/

From the 2018 bear market low set on 15-DEC-2018, the Bitcoin bull market has gained 340% into the high of 26-JUN-2019. Since then, the largest pullback of the 2019 bull market has been underway, thus far a 35% decline heading into AUG-2019.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, two scenarios can now be considered at this inflection point: a continuing Bull Scenario (Preferred) or a Bear Scenario (Alternative).

In either scenario, the following Elliott Wave model proposes a five wave structure, consisting of: three advancing bull market waves, interwoven with two declining bear market waves. Overlaying this model onto Bitcoin suggests:

Code:
Wave 1: the first bull market wave 2010-2013 (1219 days), followed by;
Wave 2: the first bear market wave 2013-2015 (426 days), followed by;
Wave 3: the second bull market wave 2015-2018 (1065 days), followed by;
Wave 4: the second bear market wave 2018-2019 (363 days), followed by;
Wave 5: the third and final bull market wave 2019-?

The five aforementioned have been considered as PRIMARY degree waves —such waves elapse the course of a few months to a couple of years. Each PRIMARY degree wave is constituted of five INTERMEDIATE degree waves; and in turn, so forth into smaller degree fractals.



The continuing bull market scenario suggests the first INTERMEDIATE leg of PRIMARY[5] has completed, and four more INTERMEDIATE degree waves are yet to unfold; either meeting or exceeding the all-time highs of PRIMARY[3] wave.

The alternative bear market scenario suggests PRIMARY[5] has completed in entirety, and failed to meet or exceed the all-time highs of PRIMARY[3] wave. In Elliott Wave parlance, this is known as a ‘failed-fifth’ or a ‘truncated’ wave.



Bull Scenario (Preferred)



The preferred scenario suggests a continuing bull market is underway. PRIMARY[5] wave started from the 06-FEB-2019 low, and has completed its first leg labelled as INTERMEDIATE(1) wave at the 26-JUN-2019 high.

INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback is currently underway and expected to complete at the following Fibonacci retracement levels, using BITSTAMP prices:

Code:
@8500: 50.0% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (min expected zone)
@7230: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (avg expected zone)
@5425: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (max expected zone)
@4350: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (WARNING)

Once INTERMEDIATE(2) pullback completes, INTERMEDIATE(3) wave is expected to resume the PRIMARY[5] bull market to meet and exceed the all-time highs of PRIMARY[3] wave.

Where the PRIMARY[5] bull market ends is open to interpretation and speculation. There are calls of $50,000 to $500,000 to $1,000,000 and even beyond…!

From an Elliott Wave perspective: A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth wave to be equal to; or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 times; the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave; projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22,912 and $35,127, calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BLX) index:

Code:
@22912: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1
@35127: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1.618



As and when the waves develop and progress, or in the event of subdividing and extending waves, revised price targets shall be calculated with renewed projections.

If the current INTERMEDIATE(2) pullback retraces a Fibonacci 78.6% of the entire 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 uptrend, then the bull market has a 50/50 odds of resuming.

A retracement to the Fibonacci 88.6% level is the first warning signal to suggest the bull market may be over.

A decline to the 06-FEB-2019 low confirms the bull market is over.



Bear Scenario (Alternative)



The alternative bear market scenario suggests the 2019 bull market was a short-lived affair, and PRIMARY[5] terminated as a failed-fifth truncated wave.

In this scenario, a CYCLE[II] wave pullback is now underway and headed to break below the 2018 low.

The following technical analysis motivations, in order of significance, support the bear market scenario:

1. The cryptocurrency market breadth represented by the Altcoins have failed to materially participate in the 2019 bull market. The majority of Altcoins are currently approaching their respective 2018 lows.

2. The last two monthly candles of Bitcoin, i.e. JUN-2019 and JUL-2019, are equivalent in formation to DEC-2017 and JAN-2018. Both sets of candlesticks formed a bearish ‘Shooting-Star’ and ‘Tweezer-Top’ pattern. A ‘Shooting-Star’ candlestick in an uptrend exhibits a long upper wick signalling a reversal. Two consecutive ‘Shooting-Star’ candlesticks form a ‘Tweezer-Top’ pattern: where the close price of the first candlestick is equal to the opening price of the second. A monthly close above $10,760 is required to obviate the bearish scenario:



3. Perhaps superficial but worth consideration, is the current daily price action fractal which bears similarity to the 2017 top:





Inflection Point Summary

—A decline to $5425 (BITSTAMP) puts the bull market at 50/50 odds of survival.

—A decline to $4350 (BITSTAMP) provides a warning signal to suggest the bull market may be over.

—A decline to the 06-FEB-2019 low confirms the bull is over.

—A monthly close above $10760 (BITSTAMP) provides a signal to suggest the bull market is resuming.

Code:
29-JUL-2019: Bitcoin CME Futures Settlement
30-JUL-2019: BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
31-JUL-2019: FOMC Interest Rate Decision
01-AUG-2019: BoE Interest Rate Decision
02-AUG-2019: Nonfarm Payrolls

Speculation is indicative of price/structure, not time.
 
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July 28, 2019, 02:57:25 AM
Merited by micgoossens (3)
 #86

Bull Scenario (Preferred)


Thank you for the update, xxxx123abcxxxx!

Your bull scenario is very much in line with my analysis. I think we have one more leg down to go in the short term before bulls get a reprieve and we get a sizeable bounce. The $12K area looks right if we stab below $9K first.

I'm keeping my eyes peeled for a complex/sideways WXY to develop rather than a typical flat; Bitcoin often likes to shoot it's wad on the initial crash from the top then meander sideways before continuing up.

Bear Scenario (Alternative)



I'd be amazed if that was a primary fifth wave already, but I can't say it's impossible!

Thanks again for sharing.

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July 28, 2019, 04:37:17 PM
 #87

123abc....:  Tremendous article, thanks for your insight, it really is appreciated.  I have two questions one simple, the other a thought.

1)  Is there a website you use to view the bitcoin scenario that offers monthly candles.  I'm using bitocoinwisdom.io and it only goes to weekly.  Your article comment on the shooting star I can't verify right now.

2)  When looking at your candle scenarios do they fall ABOVE the Bollinger 21 tick band (21 being a fibonacci number).  That is they open and close above the BB maximum.  Such a formation is extremely bearish (I only have failed on this once in over hundred tries in stock trades, never in GBTC), I'm referring to your relevant quote on the bearish scenario:  " ‘Shooting-Star’ and ‘Tweezer-Top’ pattern. A ‘Shooting-Star’ candlestick in an uptrend exhibits a long upper wick signalling a reversal. Two consecutive ‘Shooting-Star’ candlesticks form a ‘Tweezer-Top’ pattern" 

Bottom line,  a bollinger band represents a statistical certainty with some defects.  Although minor, the defects of the BB are that it's borders represent about an 88% confidence certainty instead of the 95% + represented by a 2 standard deviation variance.  It is however, very certain that an open and close candle above (OR BELOW) the BB represent, at least, an 88% chance of a reversal.  Which is why I follow this pattern looking for an investment chance (on a daily, not weekly or monthly basis).

Right now, the shooting star represented by the weekly (bitcoin wisdom chart) of 6/23 is all I have to go by and it opened and closed inside the BB, so it's probably ONLY a partial reversal indicator, that is, it will reverse when it closes, on a weekly at around the midpoint of the BB, a statistically stable reversal point, of about 7.5K.  The DAILY suggests we will see a reversal around 8.7K, so I'm looking to invest somewhere in between these two.

regards
oarmas
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July 28, 2019, 05:49:17 PM
 #88

Amazing work as always 123abc. Thank you for the time and effort, and thanks for sharing. 
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July 28, 2019, 08:44:54 PM
Last edit: July 28, 2019, 09:13:44 PM by xxxx123abcxxxx
 #89

123abc....:  Tremendous article, thanks for your insight, it really is appreciated.  I have two questions one simple, the other a thought.

1)  Is there a website you use to view the bitcoin scenario that offers monthly candles.  I'm using bitocoinwisdom.io and it only goes to weekly.  Your article comment on the shooting star I can't verify right now.

2)  When looking at your candle scenarios do they fall ABOVE the Bollinger 21 tick band (21 being a fibonacci number).  That is they open and close above the BB maximum.  Such a formation is extremely bearish (I only have failed on this once in over hundred tries in stock trades, never in GBTC), I'm referring to your relevant quote on the bearish scenario:  " ‘Shooting-Star’ and ‘Tweezer-Top’ pattern. A ‘Shooting-Star’ candlestick in an uptrend exhibits a long upper wick signalling a reversal. Two consecutive ‘Shooting-Star’ candlesticks form a ‘Tweezer-Top’ pattern"  

Bottom line,  a bollinger band represents a statistical certainty with some defects.  Although minor, the defects of the BB are that it's borders represent about an 88% confidence certainty instead of the 95% + represented by a 2 standard deviation variance.  It is however, very certain that an open and close candle above (OR BELOW) the BB represent, at least, an 88% chance of a reversal.  Which is why I follow this pattern looking for an investment chance (on a daily, not weekly or monthly basis).

Right now, the shooting star represented by the weekly (bitcoin wisdom chart) of 6/23 is all I have to go by and it opened and closed inside the BB, so it's probably ONLY a partial reversal indicator, that is, it will reverse when it closes, on a weekly at around the midpoint of the BB, a statistically stable reversal point, of about 7.5K.  The DAILY suggests we will see a reversal around 8.7K, so I'm looking to invest somewhere in between these two.

regards
oarmas

Thank you for sharing your technical insights.


1. The following book is a recommendation to understand Japanese Candlestick patterns:

      Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques
      by Steve Nison (ISBN: 0735201811)
      https://ufile.io/e453rziz (6.5MB) [expires 31-AUG-2019]


2. No personal experience with Bollinger Bands, so can't comment or answer your query.

      Here is a Bollinger Band applied to a monthly chart of Bitcoin with a band of 21 and standard deviation of 2:
      https://i.imgur.com/zJZhxB3.jpg
 
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July 29, 2019, 09:56:22 AM
 #90

Great analysis as usual. Really appreciate your hard work...
Considering the analysis done on social media and tradingview, i can see that most of the analysists are expecting the 7-8k levels to be the optimal retracement and to go to the moon just afterwards.
Considering that bitcoin never does what is expected, I think the most likely and the bullish scenario is

Quote
A decline to $4350 (BITSTAMP) provides a warning signal to suggest the bull market may be over.

which will create huge panic in the market, all the analysists going back to bear views and expecting sub 1k s.
If we succeed to turn back from 4350 I think the bull will be really healthy, and the weak hands will be shaken.


Thanks a million for your analysis again...
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August 05, 2019, 08:56:17 PM
Merited by exstasie (1)
 #91


exstasie
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August 05, 2019, 09:11:15 PM
 #92



You're reading my mind right now. The bounces off the lower $9,000s look like a pretty typical flat B wave.

But I'm also getting nervous that my bearish bias is clouding my vision. I've been pretty adamant that from a time/proportion perspective, the correction is unlikely to be over yet, not for another month or more. Is it possible we're wrong about that?

Do you think a running correction like Jan-Mar 2017 is a possibility?

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August 05, 2019, 11:09:01 PM
 #93

You're reading my mind right now. The bounces off the lower $9,000s look like a pretty typical flat B wave.

But I'm also getting nervous that my bearish bias is clouding my vision. I've been pretty adamant that from a time/proportion perspective, the correction is unlikely to be over yet, not for another month or more. Is it possible we're wrong about that?

Do you think a running correction like Jan-Mar 2017 is a possibility?

Yes, the bearish bias may be wrong. However, the Fear & Greed index suggests sentiment is complacent, and alludes to a pending correction.

The current b-wave bounce has the following resistance zones to overcome the bearish bias...

Code:
Standard b-wave Resistance Zones (COINBASE)
12036, 12842, 13868

Irregular b-wave Resistance Zones (COINBASE)
15000, 15701, 16267, 16833


 


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August 06, 2019, 11:24:39 PM
 #94

20-day price & time symmetry...?

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August 09, 2019, 01:26:11 PM
 #95

The time factor involved in the simple bullish scenario following wave 5 implies a multi year correction.  The bearish complex scenario implies the correction is almost over.  Although more painful, the bearish scenario makes sense, technically since BTC will halve next May.  I just don't think wave Y will go that low, in other words, the bottom may already be in and we're just passing time until the true bull market takes off sometime between November 2019 and May 2020.
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August 10, 2019, 08:32:28 PM
 #96

The time factor involved in the simple bullish scenario following wave 5 implies a multi year correction.  The bearish complex scenario implies the correction is almost over.  Although more painful, the bearish scenario makes sense, technically since BTC will halve next May.  I just don't think wave Y will go that low, in other words, the bottom may already be in and we're just passing time until the true bull market takes off sometime between November 2019 and May 2020.

The "Bearish Complex WXY" scenario has been simply revised to the "Bear (Alternative)" scenario.

—In the "Bear (Alternative)" scenario, the 26-JUN-2019 high near $14,000 is considered as the entirety of a truncated failed-fifth PRIMARY wave; and now, price is headed to break below the 2018 low.

—In the "Bull (Preferred)" scenario, the 26-JUN-2019 high near $14,000 is considered as just the first leg of the fifth and final PRIMARY wave; and, four more waves are yet to unfold, driving price beyond the 2017 high.

Full details here: https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/cipwdi/2019_cryptocurrency_elliott_wave_inflection_point/
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August 11, 2019, 04:50:29 PM
 #97

The time factor involved in the simple bullish scenario following wave 5 implies a multi year correction.  The bearish complex scenario implies the correction is almost over.  Although more painful, the bearish scenario makes sense, technically since BTC will halve next May.  I just don't think wave Y will go that low, in other words, the bottom may already be in and we're just passing time until the true bull market takes off sometime between November 2019 and May 2020.


So we do have a short time to accumulate. The price being 12, 10 or 7k will not make much of a difference when it goes beyond 100k after the next halving.
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August 11, 2019, 05:21:57 PM
 #98

So we do have a short time to accumulate. The price being 12, 10 or 7k will not make much of a difference when it goes beyond 100k after the next halving.

Except the OP isn't expecting $100K+ at all. In his most bullish projection, the ultimate top will be in the $30,000s. Tongue

Also, buying at $7K vs. $12K means a 70% difference in the amount of coins you can accumulate. So it definitely makes a difference to me! Anyone who can reliably beat dollar cost averaging over time should do so. And if you can't, that's what DCA is for.

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August 25, 2019, 02:50:31 PM
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September 19, 2019, 03:28:19 AM
Merited by josegines (1)
 #100

 
BITSTAMP support zones...

Code:
@8500: 50.0% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (min expected zone)
@7230: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (avg expected zone)
@5425: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (max expected zone)
@4350: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (WARNING)

—A decline to the Fibonacci 78.6% level suggests the bull market has a 50/50 odds of resuming.

—A decline to the Fibonacci 88.6% level is the first warning signal to suggest the bull market may be over.

—A decline to the 06-FEB-2019 low confirms the bull market is over.



Speculative analysis indicative of price/structure, not time.
 
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