2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave)

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Trick or Treat…?
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/dn8ie2/2019_cryptocurrency_elliott_wave_trick_or_treat/

The 2019 Bitcoin bull market parabolically surged 345% from the low of 15-DEC-2018 to the high of 26-JUN-2019. Since the 26-JUN-2019 high, the market was spooked with a 48% decline into the low of 23-OCT-2019.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, two scenarios are under consideration at this inflection point: a continuing Bull Scenario (Preferred) or a Bear Scenario (Alternative).

In either scenario, the Elliott Wave model proposes a five wave structure, consisting of: three advancing bull market waves, interwoven with two declining bear market waves. Overlaying this model onto Bitcoin suggests:

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Wave-1: the first bull market wave 2010-2013 (1219 days), followed by;
Wave-2: the first bear market wave 2013-2015 (426 days), followed by;
Wave-3: the second bull market wave 2015-2018 (1065 days), followed by;
Wave-4: the second bear market wave 2018-2019 (363 days), followed by;
Wave-5: the third and final bull market wave 2019-?

The five aforementioned have been considered as PRIMARY degree waves —such waves elapse the course of a few months to a couple of years. Each PRIMARY degree wave is constituted of five INTERMEDIATE degree waves; and in turn, so forth into smaller degree fractals.

The Bullish Scenario (Preferred) suggests Wave-5 is still underway, and the bulls shall be treated to subdividing and extending waves headed for new all-time highs.

The Bear Scenario (Alternative) suggests a trick Wave-5 completed at the 26-JUN-2019 high as a truncated fifth wave failure, and a bear market is underway.


Bull Scenario (Preferred)

The preferred bullish scenario suggests a continuing bull market is underway. PRIMARY[5] wave started from the 06-FEB-2019 low, and has completed its first parabolic uptrend labelled as INTERMEDIATE(1) wave at the 26-JUN-2019 high.

INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback started at the 26-JUN-2019 high, and retraced an almost Fibonacci 61.8% thus far into the 23-OCT-2019 low. This 4-month decline unfolded in a three wave A-B-C structure. With technical momentum indicators such as the RSI (Relative Strength Index) positively diverging from price action on multiple timeframes, it appears the pullback may be complete. However, the first set of five rising impulsive waves are yet to be discernible from the 23-OCT-2019 low.





Any further extended declines for INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback ought to be concluded at the following Fibonacci support zones, using BITSTAMP:

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@7230: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. [AVG]
@5425: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. [MAX]
@4350: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. [WARNING: Bull Market Terminated?]

From the 23-OCT-2019 low, the continuing bull market scenario would now suggest the start of a rising INTERMEDIATE(3) wave. Such a wave is expected to unfold parabolically in nature, and at a minimum, meet or exceed the PRIMARY[3] high set on 17-DEC-2017. In both price and time, this wave is expected to be the longest of the PRIMARY[5] bull market. Subdividing and extending parabolic waves on exponential price scales are challenging to track. The maximum declines within INTERMEDIATE(3) wave ought to be around 40% in size, with averages of 20%-25%.

Where the PRIMARY[5] bull market ends is open to interpretation and speculation.

From an Elliott Wave perspective: A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth wave to be equal to; or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 times; the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave; projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22,912 and $35,127, calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BLX) index:

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@22912: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1
@35127: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1.618

As and when the waves develop and progress, and in the event of subdividing and extending waves, revised price targets shall be calculated with renewed projections.


Bear Scenario (Alternative)

The alternative bear market scenario suggests the 2019 bull market was a short-lived affair, and PRIMARY[5] terminated as a failed-fifth truncated wave at the 26-JUN-2019 high.

In this scenario, five completed PRIMARY degree waves have completed a CYCLE I wave structure. And now a CYCLE II wave bear market pullback is underway and headed to break below the 2018 low.



The decline from the 26-JUN-2019 high to the 23-OCT-2019 low completed the first leg of the bear market. And now, the first bounce of the bear market may be currently underway retracing towards the following Fibonacci zones, using BITSTAMP prices:

Code:

@9810:  38.2% Fibonacci retracement from 26-JUN-2019 to 23-OCT-2019. [MIN]
@10590: 50.0% Fibonacci retracement from 26-JUN-2019 to 23-OCT-2019. [AVG]
@11365: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 26-JUN-2019 to 23-OCT-2019. [AVG]
@12470: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from 26-JUN-2019 to 23-OCT-2019. [MAX]

Once the bear market bounce completes at any of the aforementioned resistance zones, the next phase of the decline is expected to commence, and break below the 2018 low.



At this point in time, the alternative bear market scenario may be paused for consideration whilst price action remains above the 23-OCT-2019 low.

The alternative bear market scenario may be gradually phased-out, step-by-step as follows:

    1. A rising five wave impulsive structure from the 23-OCT-2019 low.
    2. Price advancing beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 26-JUN-2019 to 23-OCT-2019.
    3. Price exceeding the 26-JUN-2019 high.

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BITSTAMP support zones:  
8850, 8500, 7230, 5425, 4350

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BITSTAMP resistance zones:
9810, 10590, 11365, 12470, 13130, 16260, 17930

Analysis is purely speculative, and projections are indicative of price & structure, not time. Happy Halloween!
 

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[oarmas]

My current count has GBTC bottoming out around 8.10, BTC may have already bottomed out.  It should be a wave 2 or Y.  With a halving coming on May 23 2020, the dye for a move upwards is in motion.  At a rate of growth of less than 2% per annum after May 2020, the fiat banking system will be hard pressed to match BTC going forward, creating an infinite move upwards vis a vis fiat currencies.  This is the beginning of primary 3 or cycle 3.

[figmentofmyass]

My current count has GBTC bottoming out around 8.10, BTC may have already bottomed out.  It should be a wave 2 or Y.  With a halving coming on May 23 2020, the dye for a move upwards is in motion.  At a rate of growth of less than 2% per annum after May 2020, the fiat banking system will be hard pressed to match BTC going forward, creating an infinite move upwards vis a vis fiat currencies.  This is the beginning of primary 3 or cycle 3.

i'd love to see your count. would you mind sharing?

the OP believes we're in a primary wave 5, which naturally suggests that a bearish supercycle will follow the next bubble. i'm skeptical about that but the count seems plausible for now.

[MarquiseMuseum]

Halving awareness is too high in combination with merchant phase with branded tokenization which BTC was not designed for, regardless of how you want to spin that fact. XCP is simply just not good enough compared to dedicated index platforms. Market cannot grow from here without retail onramping, fiat will be rendered irrelevant by global index migration to proprietary blockchain platforms, so this is not value that decentralized space will be able to capture.

BTC is not some miracle solution to every world wide problem for the next millenia, I believe that it has already topped out based on fundamentals and that there will be a very drastic flip event some time soon, not involving any of the top 5 coins. Hyperbitcoinization pattern is a result of economic digitalization but the parabola is driven by other growth factors outside crypto and this pattern is visible in other industries such as integrated circuits (moores law).

I believe that there is a gamblers delusion in BTC market driven by leverage and speculation detached from reality.

Shifting focus away from something that was already rejected by mainstream towards global index tracking is better inorder to deflate expectations moving into 2020's.

It's unfortunate that it may have to top out at 35k and bring everyone with it to the abyss before the real market shift can initiate.

People need to get proper rekt, I guess, it has to burn deep enough for change to happen.

There are many more reasons for this viewpoint but it's already debated in post history, no need for repetition.

No doubt crypto has a future and trillions in market cap awaits, but it is healthier behaviour to shift focus away from individual chains to global index tracking, and then from there, begin cherry picking projects with solid fundamentals, there are a few x10 000 in there.

It paved the way for a new industry, let it go out with grace.

[exstasie]

Halving awareness is too high

Bears said the same thing in 2016. You know what happened next.

Also, I think the Speculation forum gives an overly bullish picture of market sentiment. This place is crawling with permabulls. In fact, this perspective makes it seem like the halving hasn't been priced in at all:

“If the May 2020 stock-to-flow ratio for Bitcoin is factored into the model, a vertiginous price of around USD 90,000 emerges. This would imply that the forthcoming halving effect has hardly been priced into the current Bitcoin price of approximately USD 8,000.”

[MarquiseMuseum]

I'd like to see analysis of global index excluding top 10. It's a $20 billion market, lots of potential.

[josegines]

2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Trick or Treat…?

Is it totally ruled out that the market made PRIMARY [5] in Dec / 17 and since then is doing CYCLE II?

Thanks for your updates.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Is it totally ruled out that the market made PRIMARY [5] in Dec / 17 and since then is doing CYCLE II?
Thanks for your updates.

There are many Elliott Wave counts which suggest Wave-5 completed at the 2017 high.

However, when counting the individual constituent waves, the analysis on this thread suggests, either: Wave-5 is still currently in progress (preferred); or, completed at the 2019 high as a truncated fifth wave failure (alternative).

[josegines]

Is it totally ruled out that the market made PRIMARY [5] in Dec / 17 and since then is doing CYCLE II?
Thanks for your updates.

There are many Elliott Wave counts which suggest Wave-5 completed at the 2017 high.

However, when counting the individual constituent waves, the analysis on this thread suggests, either: Wave-5 is still currently in progress (preferred); or, completed at the 2019 high as a truncated fifth wave failure (alternative).

but a truncated fifth wave failure would reverse the entire impulsive wave and also, violently, in this case, that would mean that the price would return to 0.

Do you think BTC can go to 0?

[marky89]

At this point in time, the alternative bear market scenario may be paused for consideration whilst price action remains above the 23-OCT-2019 low.

Will the "alternative" bear scenario become the "preferred" scenario once the 23-OCT low is breached?

but a truncated fifth wave failure would reverse the entire impulsive wave and also, violently, in this case, that would mean that the price would return to 0.

Do you think BTC can go to 0?

What do you mean by "reverse the entire impulsive wave?" A truncated fifth would imply weakness, but it wouldn't mean the following correction would erase 100% of previous gains.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

At this point in time, the alternative bear market scenario may be paused for consideration whilst price action remains above the 23-OCT-2019 low.

Will the "alternative" bear scenario become the "preferred" scenario once the 23-OCT low is breached?

but a truncated fifth wave failure would reverse the entire impulsive wave and also, violently, in this case, that would mean that the price would return to 0.

Do you think BTC can go to 0?

What do you mean by "reverse the entire impulsive wave?" A truncated fifth would imply weakness, but it wouldn't mean the following correction would erase 100% of previous gains.

Using the BLX/BNC index: PRIMARY[2] declined 86.08% and PRIMARY[4] declined 83.70% —both taking an average of a year to unfold.

If a bear market CYCLE II wave is underway, it would most certainly decline 85% to 95% —hence breaking below the 2018 low, and quite possibly heads towards the PRIMARY[1] high at $1200.

Return to $0...? Who knows. But a sustained decline towards the PRIMARY[2] low of $164 would be a catastrophic collapse beyond a return to survival.

For now, as long as price action remains above the 23-OCT-2019 low, projections can remain optimistic in regards to a continuing bull market headed for all-time highs. Should price fall beneath the 23-OCT-2019 low, the following Fibonacci zones provide critical support levels using BITSTAMP prices....

Code:

@7230: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. 
@5425: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. [WARNING: Bull Market/Bear Market at 50/50]
@4350: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. [WARNING: Bull Market Terminated?]

 

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Bullish Scenario (Preferred) using GBTC...

[josegines]

Return to $0...? Who knows. But a sustained decline towards the PRIMARY[2] low of $164 would be a catastrophic collapse beyond a return to survival.

It is not a prognosis of mine, I mean the Elliot Wave Theory. As I understand it, when the 5th fault occurs, the full impulse is retracted, in this case, from 20k to 0.

Sorry because I haven't found an appointment in English:

https://www.labolsadepsico.com/ondas-impulsivas-fallo-de-5/

I don't know if there is any modern Elliot theory that gives us a less catastrophic target.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Return to $0...? Who knows. But a sustained decline towards the PRIMARY[2] low of $164 would be a catastrophic collapse beyond a return to survival.

It is not a prognosis of mine, I mean the Elliot Wave Theory. As I understand it, when the 5th fault occurs, the full impulse is retracted, in this case, from 20k to 0.

Sorry because I haven't found an appointment in English:

https://www.labolsadepsico.com/ondas-impulsivas-fallo-de-5/

I don't know if there is any modern Elliot theory that gives us a less catastrophic target.

Personally, not heard of that Elliott Wave rule before. Seen many truncated failed fifth waves which have not completely erased the entire prior impulse.

P.S. Not seeing a fifth wave failure in your example: https://i.imgur.com/OTw0EMV.png
 

[josegines]

Personally, not heard of that Elliott Wave rule before. Seen many truncated failed fifth waves which have not completely erased the entire prior impulse.

Good!

P.S. Not seeing a fifth wave failure in your example: https://i.imgur.com/OTw0EMV.png
 

I get this example on that page:


sorry, I see you have written a new lettering.


Although the example may not be correct, the text does refer to the Elliot Wave theory

Cuando se produce un fallo de 5 volveremos al origen del impulso y además de forma violenta. Si no fuera así, el recuento será incorrecto.

When a failure of 5 occurs we will return to the origin of the impulse and also violently. If not, the count will be incorrect.

Sorry but I am more confused with your labeling, how can the ABC correction be larger than the previous impulse?

[josegines]

another much more complete page (Spanish) on  truncated failed fifth waves:

https://felixmayoral.org/2016/04/16/las-ondas-de-elliott-4/

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Sorry but I am more confused with your labeling, how can the ABC correction be larger than the previous impulse?
https://i.imgur.com/qa4EMSD.png

The 1-2-3-4-5 labeling is of smaller degree. The A-B-C is labeling is part of a lager degree.
Therefore, the A-B-C corrects a larger 1-2-3-4-5 not seen on the limited chart.

another much more complete page (Spanish) on  truncated failed fifth waves:
https://felixmayoral.org/2016/04/16/las-ondas-de-elliott-4/
https://i.imgur.com/tnqJmvS.png
https://i.imgur.com/9yroS3p.png

In the aforementioned Spanish website, the following is said in regards to a truncated fifth wave failure...


—After the “failure” has occurred, the price should go back the entire movement of the previous impulse pattern, that is, it should return to the origin of the pattern.

—If we are facing a failure pattern, the market should probably go back to the origin of wave 1.


Note the bold typefaced words. Exact science, is not exact science.

When a fifth wave failure occurs, it is a sign of weakness forewarning of a deeper than usual retrace in the opposite direction. On smaller degree waves this could more likely retrace the entire prior impulse, but perhaps less likely to do so on larger degree waves.


 

[MarquiseMuseum]

$164 is 3 billion market cap, it is inline with top 10 valuations and there is no specific reason that BTC should not align with those valuations.

People who buy into BTC now, a 10 year old technology (when was the last time you invested heavily into 56k modems? must be aware that this can be a decade long falling knife. Just be aware that this can happen, I remember when BTC was $430 in April of 2016, it was not long ago, and nothing has changed fundamentally since then quite the contrary, as competition is catching up.

There are other healthier markets to invest in but crypto will probably be a thing for the elite with index migration of stocks to proprietary platforms such as NASDAQ.

BTC and decentralized space can very much become a currency for the 21st century proletariat, the underclass, as fiat collapses while elite is already on blockchain in stock and bond markets.

There are indications of this already when researching who actually uses BTC, Venezuela - a country in economic ruin. The slogan of crypto in the past was "banking for the unbanked" or something like that - this is not a customer base with immense wealth to spare.

The elite top 1% will copy index tech from waves and stellar (there are no patents to protect this tech) and migrate their clients. Their clients? Every Fortune 500 and top company in the world.

Dedicated index platforms are lucky to capture 1-10% ($200bn-$2tn) of global trade on a 5 year horizon. So that's where the profit will be as far as decentralized growth. 99% of crypto will be centralized in that same time span and the market value will be tens of trillions.

This hypothesis is not visible in the present market yet so I would not advise shorting BTC, it can impulse to $35k easily. This is fundamental analysis spanning the 2020's, very long term.

There is no indication that the original blockchain called BTC, is on track to compete in that environment. It was not designed to do that and the market is forked into several new chains like Bitcoin cash and satoshi vision. It is fragmented and dev talent can see the writing on the wall and adapt to the unfolding situation by selling knowledge to enterprise space and getting back inline with status quo.

The main cause of this evolution is that BTC and ETH hit a scaling wall 2 years ago and lost critical momentum and competitive advantage. Decentralized merchants (underclass) are of marginal importance compared to Fortune 500 (top 1%). Decentralization may revive as a concept if the future is particulary dystopian, but for now, mainstream does not care about decentralization. But they do care about blockchain.

[drays]

Marquise, enough trying to kick BTC because of "old tech" etc etc... I have listened it multiple times from the altcoin fans - they think the newer is the tech, the better and more useful it is. That's simply not true. There is a lot of useless new tech. And there is a lot of good new tech, which nobody cares about, and will never do so. The value of tech is its social impact, not just innovation.

You tell people care about "blockchain", not BTC? Not my experience. To me "blockchain" is just a new buzzword, just like "5G" or other overhyped tech. Blockchain is a good technology, but is nothing revolutionary,or use-in-everything solution. The decentralized global currency is way more disruptive, than just another technology, be it blockchain or anything else.

Besides that, its all not about the tech, but is about loyal community and brand awareness. Still the best programmers are working on BTC, and the BTC will attract the biggest talents, because... it is one level above anything else, I believe any of alt developers will be honored to be invited to work on BTC. Alts are... well.. "alts" - meaning they are an alternative research. Their value is to be a test ground for the BTC - if they develop anything of significance, BTC could absorb it. Some of alts will grow to fill some other niches. Niches, only niches.

That's my take on it. I don't express it as often as you express yours, but I just felt someone should intervene in your monologue. Your speculations are interesting, but are unfounded. Do you think you can envision the future, and have to share your revelations with us, the unwashed ones..? 

[figmentofmyass]

Bullish Scenario (Preferred) using GBTC...

any thoughts on the expected magnitude of wave (iii)?

looking at bitstamp---and based on the current wave (ii) low which could change---a 1.618 extension would mean an approximate retest of the yearly highs in the upper $13000s. does that sound about right, or do you have a different target in mind?