2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave)

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

I’ve read your two EW threads and while I started as a skeptic, I’ve gotten a lot of useful info from your posts over the years. Keep up the good work!

Appreciated, thank you. Always best to keep an open mind.

Elliott Wave is highly subjective; and depending on interpretation, the probable outcomes are often a best guess. But combined with disciplined account management, it is possible to develop an edge.

Shall endeavor to create a new thread if Bitcoin can find support around 8000, and then resume the bull market. Until then, personal interest wanes.

[1715209398]

1715209398

[1715209398]

1715209398

[MarquiseMuseum]

*outdated prediction removed*


Update March 8:

Margin reward on primexbt will be removed april 1st when promo campaign ends. For this reason, the above price projection is no longer valid.

I believe all 3 of these had their decade and that competition catched up and will surpass it. Don't leverage these outdated instruments, research more up to date alternatives and invest moderately in those.

Don't become a late bagholder to early adopters with leveraged loss. It's similar to investing heavily in 56k modems at the cusp of fiber revolution.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Sub $1000 target...

[bathrobehero]

Sub $1000 target...

https://i.imgur.com/H5arWeh.jpg

Really, a log scale for EW is a thing? WTH

[exstasie]

Sub $1000 target...

What do you think about this triangle idea? Easily invalidated by a break below the 2018 bottom. The proportions seem good, and we're seeing a potential V-bottom off the 200-week MA, similar to January 2015. Based on the 2015 and 2018 reactions to said MA I'd like to see how the weekly candle closes.

Really, a log scale for EW is a thing? WTH

Why not?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

What do you think about this triangle idea? Easily invalidated by a break below the 2018 bottom. The proportions seem good, and we're seeing a potential V-bottom off the 200-week MA, similar to January 2015. Based on the 2015 and 2018 reactions to said MA I'd like to see how the weekly candle closes.

A wave-4 Triangle of such a degree does not alternate with any prior wave-2 in regards to both magnitudes of price and time.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Personal preference is the first scenario below. The first two scenarios suggest price is set to decline below the 15-DEC-2018 low…

—[1^st chart]: The 11-year secular Bitcoin bull market ended in five PRIMARY degree waves at the 26-JUN-2019 high, where the fifth and final wave, i.e. PRIMARY[5] truncated as a failure; completing a CYCLE. Now a secular CYCLE degree bear market is underway, where price is set to decline below the 30-NOV-2013 high.

Scenario eliminated if price advances above the 13-FEB-2020 high.


—[2^nd chart]: PRIMARY[4] decline is ongoing, and PRIMARY[5] is yet to commence. PRIMARY[4] is currently progressing in its final INTERMEDIATE(C) wave down, set to complete anywhere above the 30-NOV-2013 high.

Scenario eliminated if price overlaps the 30-NOV-2013 high.


—[3^rd chart]: INTEREMDIATE(3) of PRIMARY[5] wave, is yet to imminently commence.

Scenario eliminated if price declines below the 06-FEB-2019 low.


https://12345abcdewxy.wordpress.com/







 

[exstasie]

What do you think about this triangle idea? Easily invalidated by a break below the 2018 bottom. The proportions seem good, and we're seeing a potential V-bottom off the 200-week MA, similar to January 2015. Based on the 2015 and 2018 reactions to said MA I'd like to see how the weekly candle closes.

A wave-4 Triangle of such a degree does not alternate with a prior wave-2 in regards to both magnitudes of price and time.

Could you be more specific? What specific rules or guidelines are being broken? Wave II is a zig zag, Wave IV is a triangle. The proportions may not be ideal, but the only rule I'm aware of is:

Although Wave 4 has no minimum time constraint, the maximum time for Wave 4 is twice the time taken by Wave 3.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

What do you think about this triangle idea? Easily invalidated by a break below the 2018 bottom. The proportions seem good, and we're seeing a potential V-bottom off the 200-week MA, similar to January 2015. Based on the 2015 and 2018 reactions to said MA I'd like to see how the weekly candle closes.

A wave-4 Triangle of such a degree does not alternate with a prior wave-2 in regards to both magnitudes of price and time.

Could you be more specific? What specific rules or guidelines are being broken? Wave II is a zig zag, Wave IV is a triangle. The proportions may not be ideal, but the only rule I'm aware of is:

Although Wave 4 has no minimum time constraint, the maximum time for Wave 4 is twice the time taken by Wave 3.

It appears you may be suggesting that 2018-present is an ongoing wave-4 Triangle, which is alternating with a wave-2 from 2011.
Personally believe this to be incorrect since the suggested wave-2 is of a lower degree with differing price, time and momentum characteristics.

Typical momentum indicators, such as the RSI, are measures of magnitude in regards to recent price changes within a defined time period, to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions. Elliott Waves of equivalent degree ought to exhibit similar momentum conditions...



https://12345abcdewxy.wordpress.com/

[exstasie]

It appears you may be suggesting that 2018-present is an ongoing wave-4 Triangle, which is alternating with a wave-2 from 2011.
Personally believe this to be incorrect since the suggested wave-2 is of a lower degree with differing price, time and momentum characteristics.

Typical momentum indicators, such as the RSI, are measures of magnitude in regards to recent price changes within a defined time period, to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions. Elliott Waves of equivalent degree ought to exhibit similar momentum conditions...

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one. By time and price, the count is valid. I've gone through all rules and guidelines multiple times and there is nothing wrong there.

As for momentum and degree, the proper method (if there is one) would be the Elliott Wave oscillator or similar measure of absolute difference. We don't have enough data to plot 2011 at the monthly time frame but EWO appears to support the referenced count (as well as your count):



It doesn't seem appropriate to apply a relative oscillator, especially at the weekly level, to determine degree on a decade long chart. It looks like you're just pointing out weekly overbought and oversold extremes. None of this is mandatory by Elliott Wave rules anyway, though I see where you're coming from.

Anyway, I appreciate your opinion, to each his own. I thought it was an alternative worth keeping in mind before assuming sub-$1K prices. If the triangle wave (a) is breached, it's obviously easy to rule out. Cheers.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

First chart given preference if price advances beyond 13-FEB-2020 high...

12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com/btc-usd

[Afrikoin]

Wave C broken down into 5 counts

this move will top and go back down

so im going with your 2nd chart

[JL0]

Wave C broken down into 5 counts

this move will top and go back down

so im going with your 2nd chart

Whic Chart you mean?

[Afrikoin]

Wave C broken down into 5 counts

this move will top and go back down

so im going with your 2nd chart

Whic Chart you mean?

this one

First chart given preference if price advances beyond 13-FEB-2020 high...

12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com/btc-usd

[Afrikoin]

from twitter

the big debate now is whether this was a C wave ie a C wave with 5 subwaves topping off

OR

it has been a 5 wave move up from the last low

One means we have to wait longer for a bull run

the other means, a correction to follow before a higher order 5 wave fractal

[Afrikoin]

Before i suspected a top based on these trendlines, wo we are i a decisive territory

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

A decline to the 07-APR-2020 high eliminates the BULL scenario and favours the BEAR scenario.

http://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com

BULL SCENARIO






BEAR SCENARIO





Indicative of structure, not time.
 
 

[exstasie]

So we might be in the early stages of a bubble, but if the market breaks below $7,466 then we're going to the $700s? Quite a binary situation!

I'm still watching this triangle scenario. With wave (d) possibly complete now, $5,500-$7K could be next for wave (e).

[Afrikoin]

So we might be in the early stages of a bubble, but if the market breaks below $7,466 then we're going to the $700s? Quite a binary situation!

I'm still watching this triangle scenario. With wave (d) possibly complete now, $5,500-$7K could be next for wave (e).

The more options the better. I don't like the binary split, and the $1200 - $700 scenario looks too grim. It would not leave enough time to capitulate and recover back to $9k.

I feel will are much closer to a bull run, maybe 6 - 12 months out.

[Afrikoin]

So we might be in the early stages of a bubble, but if the market breaks below $7,466 then we're going to the $700s? Quite a binary situation!

I'm still watching this triangle scenario. With wave (d) possibly complete now, $5,500-$7K could be next for wave (e).

One more leg up it seems to complete you d

Been looking at it closely and I think there is at least a 30% chance it is one of the outcomes

Each of the waves (a, b, c and now d) look like 3 wave structures (a-b-c)

The coming weeks will tell us more.

OP

I love your thread!

I lurk here way too often and I appreciate you putting your thoughts out for the public. Thank you!

PS: THIS CHART IS NOT AN INDICATOR OF TIME, ONLY DIRECTION.