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Author Topic: 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave)  (Read 7064 times)
Afrikoin
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May 13, 2020, 04:28:46 PM
 #221

So we might be in the early stages of a bubble, but if the market breaks below $7,466 then we're going to the $700s? Quite a binary situation! Shocked

I'm still watching this triangle scenario. With wave (d) possibly complete now, $5,500-$7K could be next for wave (e).

One more leg up it seems to complete you d

Been looking at it closely and I think there is at least a 30% chance it is one of the outcomes Wink

Each of the waves (a, b, c and now d) look like 3 wave structures (a-b-c)

The coming weeks will tell us more.

OP

I love your thread!

I lurk here way too often and I appreciate you putting your thoughts out for the public. Thank you!

PS: THIS CHART IS NOT AN INDICATOR OF TIME, ONLY DIRECTION.




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May 14, 2020, 02:53:55 AM
 #222

So we might be in the early stages of a bubble, but if the market breaks below $7,466 then we're going to the $700s? Quite a binary situation! Shocked

I'm still watching this triangle scenario. With wave (d) possibly complete now, $5,500-$7K could be next for wave (e).

One more leg up it seems to complete you d

Been looking at it closely and I think there is at least a 30% chance it is one of the outcomes Wink

Each of the waves (a, b, c and now d) look like 3 wave structures (a-b-c)

The coming weeks will tell us more.



Certainly possible. I'll admit bulls look resilient with the strong (if low volume) recovery off $8,100.

The internals of (d) are not totally clear to me yet. One preliminary count still puts us in a lower degree C wave. We could be in iv or v:



The danger here is a failed fifth wave, considering that iv already passed the 0.5 retracement level.

I have been speculating about a wick towards the $11K area for some time though. If the above count is correct then we could wick to (or through) $10.5K and complete the yellow scenario outlined here:

In Elliott Wave theory, triangle bounds are not formed by existing trend lines (like the one extending from $19,666). The bounds are formed by the A-C and B-D lines. Assuming the $10,074 high completed Wave D, then the aqua converging lines shown here are now the basis for our triangle:



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May 15, 2020, 07:04:25 AM
 #223

So we might be in the early stages of a bubble, but if the market breaks below $7,466 then we're going to the $700s? Quite a binary situation! Shocked

I'm still watching this triangle scenario. With wave (d) possibly complete now, $5,500-$7K could be next for wave (e).

One more leg up it seems to complete you d

Been looking at it closely and I think there is at least a 30% chance it is one of the outcomes Wink

Each of the waves (a, b, c and now d) look like 3 wave structures (a-b-c)

The coming weeks will tell us more.

OP

I love your thread!

I lurk here way too often and I appreciate you putting your thoughts out for the public. Thank you!

PS: THIS CHART IS NOT AN INDICATOR OF TIME, ONLY DIRECTION.

https://i.imgur.com/QrycNdk.jpg

Thank you, appreciate the comment. Not given the time to post often this year. Analysis is guesswork at best!
 
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May 15, 2020, 07:04:49 AM
 #224


https://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com/




xxxx123abcxxxx
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May 21, 2020, 12:07:04 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (4), Walt Dyer (2), exstasie (1)
 #225


https://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com/




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May 21, 2020, 07:19:25 AM
 #226

 
The intention of this thread is to speculatively forecast the price of Bitcoin via subjectively using the Elliott Wave principle.

Analysis is purely guesswork with an endeavour to provide sporadic fortnightly updates.

Previous thread: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)
 
in fact it is also true of the Dow theory. Anything that grows too fast will fall down quickly. It takes place anywhere in your life. The internet has also once dominated the stock market for a time when businesses were overpriced. But when the bubble burst, everything was reset. so do not invest in things that have been fomo too much, the risk is very high while the profit is very low.






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exstasie
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May 21, 2020, 10:43:21 PM
 #227



Dipping into the $8,000s but the bull scenario appears to be still alive, just barely. Here's a look at that trend line:



Place your bets, gentlemen! Failure here will likely imply a trip to the $5,000s though I'd like to see $8,100 break as a final confirmation of a strong downtrend.

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May 22, 2020, 03:58:34 AM
Last edit: May 22, 2020, 04:10:16 AM by xxxx123abcxxxx
Merited by muf18 (3), El duderino_ (2)
 #228

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May 24, 2020, 02:26:18 PM
 #229

 
The intention of this thread is to speculatively forecast the price of Bitcoin via subjectively using the Elliott Wave principle.

Analysis is purely guesswork with an endeavour to provide sporadic fortnightly updates.

Previous thread: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)
 
in fact it is also true of the Dow theory. Anything that grows too fast will fall down quickly. It takes place anywhere in your life. The internet has also once dominated the stock market for a time when businesses were overpriced. But when the bubble burst, everything was reset. so do not invest in things that have been fomo too much, the risk is very high while the profit is very low.

Actually after 20 years - Internet and tech ones again dominate the world.
Afrikoin
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May 30, 2020, 04:51:33 AM
Last edit: May 30, 2020, 05:03:11 AM by Afrikoin
 #230

So we might be in the early stages of a bubble, but if the market breaks below $7,466 then we're going to the $700s? Quite a binary situation! Shocked

I'm still watching this triangle scenario. With wave (d) possibly complete now, $5,500-$7K could be next for wave (e).

One more leg up it seems to complete you d

Been looking at it closely and I think there is at least a 30% chance it is one of the outcomes Wink

Each of the waves (a, b, c and now d) look like 3 wave structures (a-b-c)

The coming weeks will tell us more.

OP

I love your thread!

I lurk here way too often and I appreciate you putting your thoughts out for the public. Thank you!

PS: THIS CHART IS NOT AN INDICATOR OF TIME, ONLY DIRECTION.








1. Consolidation
2. Into a pattern
3. At a place of resistance
4. Next is a break out
5. Question is what direction in
    a the short term
    b the medium term






a







b





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May 30, 2020, 09:13:42 PM
Last edit: May 31, 2020, 12:01:42 AM by xxxx123abcxxxx
 #231



exstasie
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May 30, 2020, 10:24:42 PM
 #232



Goodness, that would be an epic troll and would confuse the hell out of the market.

I've been keeping a head fake through $10.5K in mind for quite a while now. A short-lived wick into the $11,000s (the yellow squiggle) was the original trajectory for this idea:



However there is a possible impulsive interpretation here. Two possibilities I see:



A push to the $11,000s or $12,000s would likely suggest a higher degree Wave 1 to me. In that case I'm looking for a 0.382-0.618 retracement for Wave 2 and then a continued bull market.

Thanks for the updates as always.

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May 30, 2020, 11:55:32 PM
 #233

Code:
https://i.imgur.com/CiOlOtz.png

Goodness, that would be an epic troll and would confuse the hell out of the market.

I've been keeping a head fake through $10.5K in mind for quite a while now. A short-lived wick into the $11,000s (the yellow squiggle) was the original trajectory for this idea:

Code:
https://i.imgur.com/zgABnbJ.png

However there is a possible impulsive interpretation here. Two possibilities I see:

Code:
https://i.imgur.com/Jp1prF6.png

A push to the $11,000s or $12,000s would likely suggest a higher degree Wave 1 to me. In that case I'm looking for a 0.382-0.618 retracement for Wave 2 and then a continued bull market.

Thanks for the updates as always.

Yes, it would be quite a tricky market to fool both bulls & bears alike if this scenario manifests.

Currently not seeing the rise from the 13-MAR-2020 low to present as impulsive, yet.

So, either this rise is all of wave-X heading to >10,500 but <14,000, or it may subdivide as a three legged A-B-C affair as illustrated.
 
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June 21, 2020, 09:24:51 PM
 #234

xxxx123abcxxxx  -  And in the more medium-term version, as you see the waves, please tell me. Now the volume is low and it's not quite clear.
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June 27, 2020, 03:31:04 PM
 #235

xxxx123abcxxxx  -  And in the more medium-term version, as you see the waves, please tell me. Now the volume is low and it's not quite clear.

Guessing the following at the moment...




 
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June 29, 2020, 02:02:02 PM
 #236

xxxx123abcxxxx  -  And in the more medium-term version, as you see the waves, please tell me. Now the volume is low and it's not quite clear.

Guessing the following at the moment...


Thank you, Master !
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August 02, 2020, 07:41:42 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #237

 





 
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August 09, 2020, 07:04:08 AM
 #238

Hello
Is it possible according to the Elliott rules that the [X] rise exceeds the top of Primary [5]?
Thank you very much for your help.
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August 09, 2020, 11:08:27 AM
 #239

Hello
Is it possible according to the Elliott rules that the [X] rise exceeds the top of Primary [5]?
Thank you very much for your help.

I believe that would invalidate the count as drawn, since it's a double zig zag. One of the hard rules for double and triple zig zags is:

Quote
Wave X must be smaller than Wave W by price.

http://www.wavemagician.com/rules.htm

If BTC breaks above the June 2019 high, multiple bearish counts will be broken.

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August 12, 2020, 06:54:19 AM
 #240

Thank you extasie
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