On Bitcoin cycles

[deisik]

It is common to see people claim that Bitcoin follows the pattern which was established in 2017. I understand why they want to think this way as it took less than a year to reach 20k by the year end starting with just 1k in January that year (at a certain point price had even momentarily crashed to 750)

But it is unlikely we are going to see that pattern right now. If anything, it feels more like we are back in 2015. In the first half of that year we were making lows (the last local low was in August at around 200) and only since the fall Bitcoin started to gain momentum in earnest. Then the halving came in July 2016 and the real run-away growth kicked off in a few months (in September 2016, to be exact) being somewhat postponed by the Bitfinex hack in early August

For that matter, things look more like we are following the 4 year cycle in which the Bitcoin reward halvings play an ever important role, and we are in the beginning phase of a new cycle. The implication is that we shouldn't be overly optimistic and expect too much of 2019 as it is more like 2015 rather than 2017 (and 2018 was our 2014). Indeed, things never repeat themselves but the overall outlook should be clear by now

So what are your thoughts?

[figmentofmyass]

But it is unlikely we are going to see that pattern right now. If anything, it feels more like we are back in 2015. In the first half of that year we were making lows (the last local low was in August at around 200) and only since the fall Bitcoin started to gain momentum in earnest.

it looks like 2015, and that's what most of us are hoping for. but the bottom range isn't well established yet. ranges need to be tested in both directions multiple times so we still need to wait and see. there is still a possibility this is a long term "bear flag" and we are still destined to continue the bear market to sub-$3000 levels. that'll probably ruin this idea of a "4 year cycle". i hesitate to say such a cycle exists yet since 2014-17 was the only time it happened. all i know is the long term bitcoin chart is bullish.

[pooya87]

there are no cycles in a market specially bitcoin market that is always changing. what there is is the trader's imagination of a cycle so when enough of them believe it is a thing they start following it and eventually a cycle is formed.
this "cycle" is not just the bubble part, instead it starts from the bottom and ends at the bottom again. meaning if you want to talk about this "cycle" you have to start from 2015 when price was at the bottom (~$200) and consider all the time between that and the next bottom (~$3100) the whole cycle. and that just happens to also cover bitcoin halving because the period is long enough to cover one but that doesn't mean halving is playing any major role in it.

Then the halving came in July 2016 and the real run-away growth kicked off in a few months (in September 2016, to be exact)

so you are basically saying the enormous rise prior to halving (~300%) was nothing!

[Ailmand]

As for me, bitcoin isn't following any cycles. It's volatile and unstable so we can't conclude that it's repeating the exact path as before. Though some historical cycles can be used to predict the future trend, I believe that no bitcoin cycle could repeat or could ever have the same version of itself.

[odolvlobo]

...For that matter, things look less more like we are following the 4 year cycle...

FTFY. I challenge you to show me a 4-year cycle that occured more than once.

[ExFrozze]

there is no bitcoin cycle, it all depends on the market, the bitcoin volume is very sad right now, considering the price is fantastic at the end of 2017, I don't know how it was in 2015, because I don't know bitcoin

[joniboini]

there is no bitcoin cycle, it all depends on the market, the bitcoin volume is very sad right now, considering the price is fantastic at the end of 2017, I don't know how it was in 2015, because I don't know bitcoin

How can you said that there is no bitcoin cycle if you don't follow and look at past history? Though the 4-year cycle is debatable but there's a solid reason to believe after the halving there's a price increase (though it can be labeled as self-fulfilling prophecy too).

As for me, bitcoin isn't following any cycles. It's volatile and unstable so we can't conclude that it's repeating the exact path as before. Though some historical cycles can be used to predict the future trend, I believe that no bitcoin cycle could repeat or could ever have the same version of itself.

The 'historical cycle' that you mentioned above is clear proof that some pattern exists.

[Yara1]

I was not around in 2015 but from what I have read about the bitcoin market movement in 2015 I can say it likely following the same pattern in 2019 and at that since history can not repeat it self twice we may not have the same market result in 2019/as it happen in 2015 bit with similar experience and growth. We are all optimistic that the 2020 bitcoin halving will be the starting point of a significant rise of bitcoin price judging from past experience.

[Ipwich]

there is no bitcoin cycle, it all depends on the market, the bitcoin volume is very sad right now, considering the price is fantastic at the end of 2017, I don't know how it was in 2015, because I don't know bitcoin

We just want to believe there is none but actually there is no cycle, the only cycle I'm certain of is the pump and dump, but good thing
pumpers are more dominant than the dumpers so somehow we can see some good growth.

Everytime bitcoin has its bull run, it will correct afterwards, so the market is just moving to its progress for long term holders, they could see their investments grow in value, provided they would not panic easily.

[Pursuer]

...as it took less than a year to reach 20k ... But it is unlikely we are going to see that pattern right now. If anything, it feels more like we are back in 2015.

of course it is unlikely to see the 2017 rise this year but not because there is a 4 year cycle! it is because bitcoin is not a pump and dump coin that can go up and down at will. it is a rather big market that enters different trends like any other market but over all it is rising. and that "trend switch" takes time. and you can't expect the price to suddenly make a U-turn and start shooting up. that is why it feels and looks like 2015 because that time was also a reversal where the drops ended and the rises started again.

[deisik]

Answering to all of you, mates

There is a 4 year cycle with Bitcoin, whether you like it or not, whether you believe in it or not. It is there simply because we have the block reward halved each 4 years, and to deny this cycle is to be in denial yourself (no offense intended). So it is sort of a given

we are still destined to continue the bear market to sub-$3000 levels. that'll probably ruin this idea of a "4 year cycle". i hesitate to say such a cycle exists yet since 2014-17 was the only time it happened. all i know is the long term bitcoin chart is bullish

Nothing is set in stone in crypto, of course. With that said though, going to 3k levels now or in the nearest future will actually prove the 4 year dynamic as we had seen a strong rebound in June 2015 before we crashed to lower levels again in August. But I don't think it is important provided we start to rise before the next halving (the proposition which feels more plausible somehow)

so you are basically saying the enormous rise prior to halving (~300%) was nothing!

It wasn't nothing but it still pales in comparison with the rise we saw in 2017 (x20)

FTFY. I challenge you to show me a 4-year cycle that occured more than once.

Given Bitcoin's history of measly 10 years (3 of which it had been virtually unknown to the wider public), your whole challenge doesn't make a lot of sense

[Haunebu]

In my opinion, there is never a fixed cycle that the cryptocurrency market follows. Instead, the data is all over the place and we cannot accurately predict the future prices based on the historical values themselves due to the volatile nature of this market.

However, random cycles do exist in this market and the current bullish cycle could probably lead to another big BOOM in 2020(Halvening).

[deisik]

However, random cycles do exist in this market and the current bullish cycle could probably lead to another big BOOM in 2020(Halvening)

Halving is not a random cycle

As it occurs every four years and the exact date when the block reward is to be halved can be told with enough certainty (even though there can be small discrepancies). And it has impact on prices both before the actual event due to hype and most important after the event due to purely economic factors like supply of mined coins going down. These factors are set to kick in some time after the halving and they can't be possibly priced in. The halving itself occurs at a certain point in time, but its real effects are felt only after some time passes

[eternalgloom]

...as it took less than a year to reach 20k ... But it is unlikely we are going to see that pattern right now. If anything, it feels more like we are back in 2015.

of course it is unlikely to see the 2017 rise this year but not because there is a 4 year cycle! it is because bitcoin is not a pump and dump coin that can go up and down at will. it is a rather big market that enters different trends like any other market but over all it is rising. and that "trend switch" takes time. and you can't expect the price to suddenly make a U-turn and start shooting up. that is why it feels and looks like 2015 because that time was also a reversal where the drops ended and the rises started again.

It's definitely not a 4 year cycle, but to me it is pretty obvious that we see the same pattern repeating itself.
It's happened too many times for it to be a coincidence.

Whenever another all time high is reached, everything corrects again and forms a new bottom, with most of the speculators pushed out.
Then we see a few months or even years of relative price stability, followed by a slow price increase over a couple of months and a new ATH at the end.
Rinse and repeat.

[lyks15]

I think we don't need to based on that sequence because this is not accurate maybe it is not intentionally but just happened but not scheduled. If you are only depend on that pattern and do not have other strategies I think you are not fit in this society. Because the price value of bitcoin is determined in it's demand.

[niisarearning]

I am not sure about the cycle . As i witnessed bitcoin price momentum from 2000$ in 2017 then ater i seen lots of up and downside . Before 2017 crypto currency was not having much acceptance also it was compared with ponzy scheme and lots of suspicious things were going on . Afger 2107 bitcoin became precious commodity more people are believing and accepting . i dont think it will be same like 2015.

[deisik]

It's definitely not a 4 year cycle, but to me it is pretty obvious that we see the same pattern repeating itself.
It's happened too many times for it to be a coincidence

It is called volatility, short term or otherwise (read, get used to it)

Indeed, this pattern is always repeating itself. But it is of no particular use or importance (unless you are a day trader and can actually ride it for a profit) as to most people it is just a random walk, i.e. the next cycle, be it rise or fall, cannot be predicted with any reliable degree of certainty. On the other hand, 4 year cycles determined by the halving schedule are quite predictable, and it is definitely not a coincidence due to the nature of the halvings

[talkbitcoin]

i would never call what we have in bitcoin a "cycle" specially because that way of thinking always ends badly for traders who try to follow some arbitrary cycle that never happens.
what i would be open to accept is that there are similarities between each of these periods that are referred to as "cycles". the similarity comes from the fact that bitcoin is still new and is in adoption stage so we should expect these big price jumps every now and then and eventually they accumulate to a big bubble and as bubbles are in any other market, they burst and cause a long bear market. and again since bitcoin is still going to be in adoption stage the price continues rising hence looking like a "cycle".

but there are not specific time frames or sizes to these periods of time. they can be 1 year or 4, the rise can be 4x or it can be 20x or 50...

[FuryBeast]

We certainly get bitcoin cycles. If to analyze the past, we can see than every cycle gets longer and longer, and the real "book" cycle with double bottom happened in 2015. Basic chances are we'll see something like that in 2019-2020, where 2019 will be the year of accumulation and price volatility in the range of 3000-6000, and 2020 will be a breakthrough and maybe even hitting ATH at the end of the year.

[hugeblack]

If you mean by the cycle Bitcoin Block Reward Halving [1], It is true because because Halving directly affects on the supply and therefore the price increase.
Otherwise, there is no cycle in which the price rises every period of time.
Following the previous patterns without taking into account the temporal and the latest variables leads to false predictions and therefore can not be relied upon as successive patterns. It's not symphonic music

[1] About 402 days for the next Halving