Lest assume this senerio that, Mr A uses DCA uses DCA to accumulate bitcoin as his only strategy and he has an income of 2500$ and decides to allocate 10% to buying bitcoin weekly, so he buys at the first week at a price of 45,000$ and second week at 50,000, third week at 55,000$ and finally at 50,00$, he ends up buying at an average price of 50,000$ and accumulates a total of 0.05 bitcoin for his first month for an uptrend market.
Let say the same allocation with an down trend market of 49,000$, 45,000$, 40,000$ and 39,000$ price at each buying interval, he ends up accumulating a total 0.0578 bitcoin at an average price of 43,250.
i doubt that buying using DCA method is an automated system that auto buys the Bitcoin on a fixed week, month or year regardless of the rise in the price of bitcoin. Even if I'm using the DCA method to buying my bitcoin and after the first purchase I notice an increase and then another increase that Is way higher that the first price I bought my first Bitcoin, from a personal point of view, I would rather sell my holdings at the peak of the price rather than buying at that price.
You are trading and not long term investing, and also you are likely going to have fun staying poor if you cannot even tolerate some small amount of BTC price increase without being tempted to sell. Either your mental framework is messed up, or your budget is messed up or maybe you don't understand bitcoin.. or perhaps a combination of all three of those dynamics going on with you.
Their are range of price that if you buy at such price, you are very certain to have a loss or to hold your bitcoin for a very long time if you want to gain anything you of your investment. So using the DCA method doesn't mean that you should close your eyes to the reality that their are certain price that bitcoin will climb to that you should be considering more of selling your holdings rather than buying or accumulating more bitcoin regardless of whether that was the time you set out for the purchase of your bitcoin.
Maybe if you have been in bitcoin for 1.5, 2 cycles or more, then maybe you could start to get into some kind of cycle in which you are no longer accumulating BTC through buying.
Another possibility might be if you came into bitcoin and maybe you invested several years of your annual salary/expenses into bitcoin, then maybe you might get into a kind of phase in which you have enough bitcoin or that your BTC holdings are set up in such a way that you might want to start to shave off some BTC when the BTC price goes up.. and maybe in these cases, you might even need your BTC to be several times in profits.. not merely having had gone up 30% to 60% or whatever lower levels of profit taking that you seem to be suggesting to be prudent/reasonable.
One thing you should also understand is that the whole essence of investing into bitcoin is firstly to make profit
Are you a psyop? Trying to get guys to sell their BTC way too soon, and talking about trading and having lame theories in which you seem to fail/refuse to recognize and appreciate the value of bitcoin as a long term investment? Yes, sometimes profits come 4-10 years or longer down the road, and for some people they might need to invest 15 years or more prior to having had gotten to a stage in which they might be able to start to take profits... so you are misleading people and likely even the wrong thread if you are spreading these kinds of misleading ideas about the need to take profits, when taking profits too early may well screw someone up. .especially if someone might want to get to fuck you status, and if they are always taking profits, they are most likely never going to get even close to that point.. .
and maybe in some context we might talk about saving your funds in a secured place that you're sure is void of government policies that will negatively affect and so the strategies you are going to use in accumulating your bitcoin and how you go about using the strategy is basically going to be centred around making profit at the end of the day.
You sound lost and short-term oriented. Profits can come in the longer term, and there is no reason to spend a lot of time thinking about your level of profits until maybe you get into a part of your life that you might start to either live off your bitcoin or to have your bitcoin supplement your other cashflows... so that is surely not centrally focused on profits, even though in the long run you are going to have good chances to not only be in profits, but to have some of your BTC holdings with a lot of exponential growth and compounding profits that would not even be close to achievable with any kind of policy/practice of either focusing on profits or regularly withdrawing profits in order to hold your supposed profits in some kind of an asset or currency that is less valuable than just keeping your value in BTC and riding the various price waves that are most inevitably going to be along the way. There is a battle in bitcoin and volatility is likely one of the most inevitable aspects of bitcoin, and the way to deal with volatility is not necessarily fucking around with getting in and out but instead ongoing buying until you reach such a state that maybe you put yourself in a better place to deal with the volatility at various places down the road with multiple doublings, compounding and likely profits that are not guaranteed but still good to prepare for those possibilities through various accumulation and holding techniques..
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I don't really fancy this your selling of your Bitcoin idea at the peak, because if you are truly a long term investor, you will definitely know that $50000 or $55,000 is way below the actual potential of Bitcoin, and secondly, as an investors that have decided to buy Bitcoin through the DCA method, you won't be actually bothered by the current price or market sentiment because you are only thinking long term, so what is important now to me is to accumulate more Bitcoin as much as possible, and what should be your primary concern is what would be a barrier to you not holding firmly even in the face of challenges, that's why you need to think out of the box by putting down measure that would make you hold firmly, like having an emergency fund and another source of income, but this your selling off your Bitcoin at the peak is a complete no to me, because I only think long term as a Bitcoin holder
Part of the problem is that you don't know the peak until way afterwards.
Another part of the problem is that your holdings might not be in a position to be fucking around with selling.. but only you are in a position to know if you have accumulate enough or even overly accumulated in such a way that gives you the luxury of selling.. when you may well be in accumulation stages.
Another problem if you are selling on the way up then you have to figure when to buy back, so even if you have enough BTC, you have to still be careful not to sell too much because the price might not come back down and if you sell too much along the way up, you might get anxious about various points to buy back... not easy but not impossible.. but also you should likely still get to a point that you have too much BTC.
It is not easy to come up with any examples for selling for guys who got into bitcoin in 2023 or later, but there could be some scenarios for guys who got into bitcoin in 2021 or 2022, and even in those scenarios, there likely would have been a decent amount of BTC accumulating going on during 2022 and 2023 and perhaps even overly accumulation during those times.
So maybe if a guy come into bitcoin towards the top of the price in 2021.. and surely in 2021 we had two tops of the price, so there could have had been some difficulties during that time.. and so maybe if someone had an investment portfolio of $100k in early 2021 and so he was accumulating through most of 2021 and expecting BTC prices to go up to $100k, so then maybe he ended up
investing around $20k into BTC (at a rate of about $260 per week) during that time between 2021 and mid 2022.. and he ended up accumulating close to 0.5 BTC (so average cost per BTC would be around $40k) but then the BTC price kept dipping after mid 2022.. and even though he was running out of money he kept buying BTC.. .
So from July 2022 until present he pretty much ran out of money and largely had reached his investment target of 15% of his investment portfolio invested into BTC had to reduce the amount that he was purchasing down to $107 per week, and so
between July 2022 and now, he had invested another $9k into bitcoin and he had accumulated right around another 0.36 BTC.
So his total amount invested right now is right around $29k, and he has about 0.86 BTC (currently worth right around $36,980 - and his average cost per BTC is right around $33,721), and so maybe he is feeling slightly over invested since his target was to have 15% of his investment portfolio in BTC and his allocation is currently a bit higher than 15%.. not just concluding from BTC's appreciation and his being in profits but also just going by the $29k that he had already invested.. so he is having some dilemma about his ongoing investment into BTC even though at this time he continues to buy BTC at $107 per week... so if he is still accumulating, there could be some questions regarding if at some point he might start to sell some or to take other actions besides ongoingly accumulating, but at least he is in a position of over-accumulation, profits and I would suggest that even if might choose to sell some, he would only be selling small amounts on the way up, but at the same time, if his goal is to get to fuck you status.. which maybe for him could be anywhere between $1 million and $2million, he still is likely a long way from that because even if his traditional investment portfolio had gone up in value from $100k to maybe $120k, if we add in the BTC, his total holding using spot price are still only a bit less than $160k, and personally, I am not much of a fan of using spot price in order to valuate your BTC holdings, and I also would suggest that this person is not really even in a position to sell, including that his cost per BTC is not even lower than the current
200-week moving average, which is currently $30,755 and his cost per BTC is currently $33,721 ($29k/ 0.86).
And, these are not easy questions regarding how any of us might consider managing our BTC holdings including making assessments in regards to valuating our holdings their level of profits and how much we might feel over accumulated and whether selling might play into that or not, especially if we might be unclear about if we even have enough BTC.
So how those people been waiting for that 34k-35k dip or even into those 20k below bear boys out here? Seems like that 42k is the floor now.
We call them the waiting camp in this thread. They should keep waiting, perhaps they might get lucky. But who knows when? Maybe never. The wise ones will adjust to the current reality but the other has vowed to keep waiting and I wish them happy waiting.
Well, we do still have that pre-halving dump, we cant really just that be able to know on when it would happen but it seems that we are in between within these months.
It is really just that hard to point out on when. For those who do able to accumulate or able to buy on 38k then we are profiting as of this moment.
Honestly, im waiting for that last dump before halving happens or even with that post-halving dump too.
My cash is ready for having that DCA but well, we dont know if it would really be just that the same pattern that do happen trying to reflect
out on what happened into those previous runs.
The pre halving dump is already happening as we speak. Are you not seeing the signs already or do you think otherwise? You know each year comes with different pre halving pattern. Halving is happening in April and Btc dipped from $48k to $39k and still hasn't gone back to the 48k or above it. This might be the dump you are waiting for.
If you have the cash available, why not go in and fully get set. You might be waiting for something that is already happening without knowing. Act swiftly before you become part of those in the waiting camp without knowing.
I agree with everything you said and how you characterized the matter Justbillywitt.. except I don't agree with any ideas of any of us should feel that we go full in or that we are "fully set" because no matter what we are going to have dilemmas if we "go all in" and then the BTC price goes down rather than UP and we don't have any money. So there is nothing wrong with keeping some fiat on the side, because part of the preparation for UP is having a sufficient amount of BTC, and if we don't have any cash to buy dips, we likely are not in a good place, even if the BTC price never dips again, as you had suggested could end up happening.
In the past history I m very much inspire about bitcoin price again same reason some of fear work in my head.
When I see the pattern:
In late 2015 it was: $252
In late 2017 it was: $1,049
In late 2019 it was: $4,908
In late 2021 it was: $17,839
In late 2023 it was: $29,049
How I can control myself. I ask myself how this is possible. Finally I came to a conclusion that this was possible only through involvement of many people and workable element is 'buy the dip and hold'.
Bitcoin price movement, including the 200-week moving average does not only come from buying, even though buying is a part of the matter. We can also think in terms of the way BTC was designed including concepts of 1) stock to flow, 2) the four year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe principles and network effects (
as outlined by Trace Mayer).
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For me I really don't think an investor can be able to buy a fixed quantity of Bitcoin within a stipulated time interval reason being that the price of Bitcoin might keep soaring higher thereby he can't afford buying same quantity of Bitcoin as the previous one he bought while the price was lesser and moreover, just like your illustration about if a investor wants to achieve 1BTC on his 20th birthday and let's assume that the birthday would be in three years time and his DCA every week is like $1000 and from his speculation of the price of Bitcoin in that three years is like $150,000 and let's say in that 3 years the price of Bitcoin now reached $200,000 so definitely his DCA in that three years will amount $156,000 so you can see that he didn't meet up his targets of owning that 1 BTC on his birthday after his speculation 3 years back.
However, any good Bitcoin investor should just keep accumulating bitcoin rather than making speculations and also make sure that they have a steady income that will aid their DCA and also make sure they have alternatives to their source of income so that they won't miss out the DCA, only then can they record huge amount of Bitcoins in their portfolios and make reasonable profits out from it.
You are correct that it might not be realistic for someone to set his goals in terms of bitcoin, but I think that Odohu had also mentioned some impracticality aspects of that too, even though he went on and he provided an example of such, and yeah, we cannot really know if the 1 BTC in 10 years is even reachable, even if we started out now with $200 per week which we know that $200 per week for 10 years will end up being $104k invested into bitcoin... maybe it will result in 1 bitcoin or more and maybe it will not... and maybe we can start with $200 per week, yet we don't know our cash situation exactly, but if we are a pretty young person, we might expect our income to rise, but if we are a real old person we might expect that we might not be able to continue to earn at that high of a rate, unless we have systems in place that help to make sure that our income keeps up with rises in the cost of living and the likely (perhaps inevitable) debasement of the dollar (and/or the debasement of other fiat currencies).
As a new investor I don't think it requires much knowledge.
(Though the saying goes that knowledge is king)
But once you go to the market, you can learn all kinds of things by yourself.
Actually, am not ok with the statement because going into investment without having adequate knowledge is like starting a journey without a direction and can also be liking to someone that intend to start a business without business ideas. As a new investor I think having adequate and the right knowledge before you invest is a wise approach.
Waiting to go to the market and learn everything yourself is like a woman that is trying to go to the market to buy different items without making list of things to buy in order of their importance and check if her money is enough to buy everything in the list which may lead to mistake and not being organized. An investor that has the adequate knowledge before investing will be more organized and confidence compared to someone without adequate knowledge.
On the contrary @teamsherry is right because investment on Bitcoin doesn't require much knowledge before you can start investment, actually is quite unfortunate that you still believe that knowledge is a determining factor on your Bitcoin journey perhaps that's why most people are still reluctant of starting investment on Bitcoin because they believe that having too much knowledge on Bitcoin is what determined there success on Bitcoin, however I want to inform you that you don't need too much knowledge in other to start accumulating Bitcoin because Bitcoin is not like other investment that requires going for a training or researching before you could start investment, on the contrary Bitcoin investment is so simple that a beginner who doesn't really no much about Bitcoin can easily start accumulating because since the intention is buying and holding you don't need any technical analysis to determine your accumulation. However
@JayJuanGee has also explained several times on his replies concerning the reason why we don't need too much knowledge before we can start accumulating Bitcoin.
We still have to be careful that we are not discouraging the accumulation of knowledge about bitcoin, even though many times people place too much emphasis on bitcoin specific knowledge serving as various prerequisites in terms of getting started investing into bitcoin, which can frequently be unproductive, especially since there are so many aspects of bitcoin that take a long time to learn and maybe a lot of us who have been in bitcoin for a long time might not know a lot of the intricacies of bitcoin that some people consider to be "needed knowledge."
Getting started in bitcoin is likely going to help to trigger more curiosity and active learning as opposed to considering that anyone is going to be motivated to learn about bitcoin if he does not have any stake in it.. and likely just getting started, the stake size does not need to be large in order to inspire further looking into bitcoin and further curiosity including considering how much of an allocation level that the person should target, whether that ends up being 5% to 25% of his investment portfolio or some other amount that becomes justifiable and reasonable based on personal circumstances.
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There is a saying that "the end justify the means", so when the end is known, there will always be means of actualizing it. You seems to sound with the tone that everyone investing in Bitcoin is so poor that they cannot afford to buy Bitcoin if the price makes x2 of the currency price. This is a wrong mindset because there are a lot of rich people investing in Bitcoin and such people can set their plans based on the quantity of Bitcoin they want to have accumulated at a certain time in the future. Some people can even set the target of buying 1BTC per year as long as they live, to save the money for their children. These are possibilities that we cannot ignored thinking that everyone investing in Bitcoin is broke. You must understand that our purposes of investing in Bitcoin differs.
While some people are buying and holding Bitcoin as an escape from poverty, some are pushing some of their funds into Bitcoin as a hedge for their other businesses. Some are actually saving their retirement benefits in Bitcoin. We must appreciate our peculiarities as that itself is the beauty of life. What matter most is being able to invest in such a way that it will not give you pressures or discomfort.
A lot of people make similar mistakes in terms of believing that merely because the BTC price goes up, there are going to be more sellers than buyers, and they wonder who is going to be buying at $69k or who is going to be buying at $100k or who is going to be buying at $500k or who is going to be buying at $1.83 million.
There are going to be buyers at each and all of those prices, and part of our own lack of appreciation regarding how early we are and also we might be thinking that we are going to be selling at those various price points and those people buying from us are suckers, which may or may not end up being true.. depending on how much we are selling. .we might be the sucker.. and sure, there are not problems to start to shave off profits and/or to consume some of your BTC or to diversify into other assets, yet there might not be any reason to fantasize about the so many ways that you are going to be consuming, shaving off profits and/or reinvesting prior to getting there first.. one thing is continuing to accumulate.. but then another thing is figuring out balances that come once you are not as much in the accumulation stage.. so it can sometimes be unclear about whether you have enough BTC or not..
and even if the BTC prices are going up, it still does not mean that there are not going to be buyers and/or that people should not be buying, especially if they are starting out at zero BTC or at some relatively low coiner status..and you might have 100x or more coin than they have or 100x or more coins than they would even be able to accumulate, even if they were to attempt to go "all in", and so when your BTC reaches those levels of comparative size, sometimes it will become more clear how to handle it, especially if you have spent many years making various decently solid plans regarding various ways how to manage (and secure) your BTC holdings.. which does not necessarily mean selling it.. depending on other various cashflows that you might have available to you - whether through BTC or maybe through other ways that you might have complemented your BTC stash over the years, and perhaps you might be choosing to get rid of other assets and cash prior to spending your bitcoin, even if bitcoin might be in a high price state at the time of making such choices.
so perhaps is very important to be able to distinguish between investment through DCA and holding because they are actually two different things and however most people believe that since almost everyone that intend holding uses DCA for accumulation they assume that holding is the same thing as DCA because even me I was thinking the same way until I realized they are not the same.
Holding is obviously not the same as investing using DCA methods, it's even better to compare holding to trading because that's where people normally make mistake from but comparing holding to the DCA methods of bitcoin accumulation is just same as saying that winning the world cup is just same as participating in the world cup tournament.
DCA methods is just a strategy used to accumulate Bitcoin in a safe and easy way that can work well mostly for new investors that aren't yet strong enough financially to accumulate in bunch of bitcoin at a time and so will have to buy it at regular intervals just do they can Hold it. Regardless of weather a user decides to using the DCA methods or not, the end product is to hold the DIP and that's basically the obvious difference between Holding and investing into bitcoin using the DCA methord.
As a matter of fact, I think the two concept are even parallel in connection and their is no need to compare them.
You might be spreading and convoluting ideas on purpose in order to create confusion regarding what you are saying and what makes sense. Probably people should ignore you, except sure it does not hurt to correct you from time to time and to point out the areas in which you are continuing to be full of shit and perhaps purposefully spreading contradictory and confusing information..
In other words holding is not like trading...and we are not talking about trading here.
There are various ways to accumulate bitcoin. .which include DCA, lump sum buying and buying on dips. Holding applies once you have already accumulated bitcoin, and it could be a long term stance or it could be a temporary phase in which you choose to neither buy nor sell but just to hold.. perhaps you ran out of money and you cannot buy more or you are refusing to sell so you hold.
Once you go through an accumulation phase, you might enter into maintenance stage or even later into a liquidation stage.. yet since there are so many forum members and newbies, this thread largely emphasizes various aspects of the accumulation phase that could be earlier stages of accumulation or later stages of accumulation, and so we are not talking about trading in that context, and it could even be a bit controversial whether buying on the dip is a good idea for the earliest BTC accumulator, even though buying on the dip does require higher level skills than just buying and also likely is more helpful to buy on the dip after you have already accumulated BTC
- even though some people will think about buying on the dip as a kind of strategy to figure out their entry position into bitcoin, which is another trading technique that may well not serve very well the newest of investors into BTC, since the newest investors many times are going to be most advantaged by thinking about ways to get started right away, even if BTC prices are up... and sure if BTC prices are up, they may well start out with a smaller position, but since they are newbies, and they do not have many BTC they may need to realize that they might be disadvantaged by starting out too small in bitcoin, even though they may not be in a position to know that either (just like none of us can really know if they BTC price is going to correct or go down, even if the BTC price had already spent a decent amount of time going up).
