Buy the DIP, and HODL!

[Xun hu]

You don't sound confused.

Sure you might have to practice with the ideas for a while and put such ideas into practice within your own life - without being flippant about it, and surely, you might be able to learn to take bitcoin and your cashflow seriously and even learn about bitcoin (and your own self - finances and psychology) along your journey into building up a bitcoin stash and strengthening your cashflow management systems and practices.  And, yeah, all of what you do may or may not end up improving your life and giving you more options by investing into bitcoin as compared to not investing into bitcoin, as you noted that possibility to be part of the mix of things that could end up happening in your life.  

You could make all kinds of great plans, and have everything going for you, and the next thing you know, you got hit by a bus and kilt.  You also could try to figure out some balance, and maybe you get hit by the bus and maybe you don't, and if you end up putting yourself in a better position 4-10 years down the road due to your balanced practices that involve investing, reasonably improved cashflow management practices and some kind of balanced consumption, then yeah, you may or may not be in a better place due to your various efforts.. and bitcoin may or may not be $1-10 million in 10 years.. .it could be ONLY $20k..  

You don't really know the future or the various outcomes, and what outcomes might be more likely than other outcomes, even though if you educate yourself on various matters related to the world, money bitcoin and other topics that might affect you, then you may well be able to put yourself in better positions that you are able to fit into a variety of possibilities, yet how you deal with these matters is in your hands, and what you consider would be the better ways to prepare yourself for a variety of future scenarios would also be within areas that you likely could control.

These are matters that are on you to figure out the various kinds of preparations in regards to attempting to control things that you are able to control and accounting for various possibilities of things that could come at you from things that you either cannot control or that you might only be able to partially control.   There is a mixed bag in life and some folks start out with better tools in their bag, and others are able to acquire some of the better tools along the way to improve their situation at various points along the way, even if there are a lot of challenges in the world and even some bad things going on too.

Hey thanks for breaking that down i think i kinda get it but i’m still feeling a bit fuzzy about balancing it all .
Like, i get that i should focus on controlling what i can control cashflow, small Bitcoin stacking, and maybe not overthinking the rest but sometimes it feels overwhelming when i try to think 4-10 years ahead what if i mess up the balance early on?
Also, the bus metaphor hit me i guess life really can throw anything at you. So maybe it’s more about just starting small, practicing these habits, and seeing how things go over time?

[De seer1]

Bitcoin Investment is all about for discipline in other to succeed if not you will just be at the fence watching, without a normal source which I think you are talking about steady income, you can still have your discretionary income if you are serious about investing into bitcoin, you can get it from any job you do that fetches you income ,even if quarterly, or annual job as long as you have made up your mind and are serious about it, if you can't get discretionary income from your present income is to look for a supportive source of income to make you a bit stable and invest, bitcoin Investment using the dca strategy does not need much money just %10 only whenever you have funds on you and since the t is for a long-term it will be beneficial to you, and if you don't have money to continue your investment, you can pause until you start having money and then continue from where you stop .

I agree, the truth is this makes me remember that on the Spanish board I said something like that and I didn't know that leaving some discretionary income to buy on the dip was a variant of the DCA method, because the DCA method consists of buying daily, weekly, monthly whatever the quota of money to accumulate, I thought that some other income to buy on the dip was another strategy or method and no, it turns out that it is the variant, but it is the safest way to do intelligent DCA work.

You can’t be confused about this, being a Hero member of the forum, how can you say saving money to buy the dip is a variant of Dollar cost average (DCA), and again saying a variant “is the safest way to do intelligent DCA work”, where have you seen a variant better than the original.., that’s by the way.

What you’re saying is just buying the dip and it’s not advisable to keep money aside to buy dips especially if you’re low coiner still in your early stage of accumulating bitcoin. Just DCA regularly and consistently for this is the best strategy for most situations, you can be DCAing regularly and you get to buy at the dips too, just don’t keep money waiting to buy at the dip.

There investors that may not want to go in all at once, they may decide to keep some percentage of there discretionary income and them use the remaining percentage for buying the dip. As per being a low coiner ,it also depends on ones cash flow for someone with a good cash flow management that may have a good amount of discretionary income after sorting out all there expenses may decide not to put all there discretion into buying bitcoin at once they can decide to use some percentage to DCA and the remaining percentage for buying the dips.

Going all in at once is not a bad approach or method if the funds you are using to go all in is from your discretionary income because our discretionary income is meant for Bitcoin accumulation but it will be very disastrous and wrong to go all in using money meant for other expenses that is using money outside your discretionary income. and doing this can be seen as a gamble because it implies that you are using the money outside your discretionary income to buy Bitcoin and then hoping or planning to sell soon if there is little increase in the market and this is why some persons panic and sell at loss because when they have this intention and it doesn't go as planned they will panic and sell.

many investors might prefer not to go in at once because they may choose to allocate some  portion of their discretionary income to the bitcoin ,putting the rest in reserve it can then be used to buy the dip when prices fall, some with a good effective cash flow management might stil have a good amount of discretionary income, after covering all their essential expenses than they invest immediately, after that they decide to share their percentage.

[Dogedegen]

This is referring to time-based sustainable withdrawal, and I probably have not been consistently clear about how to make such calculations, and it was ONLY recently that I had bitmover change the tool on the website so that it has a spot price dollar based calculation and a 200-WMA based calculation (there is a tab on the website to make the selection), and it seems to me that if a dollar based withdrawal rate is based on the dollar value of the 200-WMA, then the 200-WMA tends to signal BTC bottom prices and also it has tended to always go up, so it is a much more stable way of valuating our BTC holdings and determining how much BTC that we are able to sustainably withdraw based on such 200-WMA dollar value.

We are all clear on this due to discussions in other threads. I'm starting to love this strategy but I want to wait a few years to see how it works on in contrast to your predictions.

Sometimes I won't even mind having some discussion of shitcoins as long as there is some clarity which one (or which ones) are being discussed, so using the category crypto will sometimes make it unclear about what is even being discussed, and if someone were to invest in crypto they need to figure out what they are going to invest into.

I understand your position. I think for certain matters it is alright to group everything else into altcoins when drawing a comparison to Bitcoin. Still for most comparisons one needs to be more specific.

Many of us will also get bothered by people thinking that they are investing into bitcoin, but they are investing into ETFs or they are holding their bitcoin on exchanges, and sure for all intents and purposes, we might be able to concede that even derivative products will still give price exposure, so third parties holding the BTC is ONLY going to negatively impact when there is some kind of bankruptcy or rug pull event.. and we saw quite a few of those in 2022 with FTX and some of the other culprits that ended up going under during that time, starting out with Tera luna that likely did not have as many bitcoin as they claimed to have had, but they were defending a supposed algorithmically stable coin that was supposedly backed by supposed real bitcoin.

I wish that people would self-custody, but the current balances of BTC on exchanges sadly tells us that many people don't do it. In my opinion retail exchanges should have a very low supply of Bitcoin on daily basis.

Have people considered that we usually have Uptober because people expect Bitcoin to go up in November and buy in during October? By doing this they generate the bullish sentiment themselves.

[justinlamode]

many investors might prefer not to go in at once because they may choose to allocate some  portion of their discretionary income to the bitcoin ,putting the rest in reserve it can then be used to buy the dip when prices fall, some with a good effective cash flow management might stil have a good amount of discretionary income, after covering all their essential expenses than they invest immediately, after that they decide to share their percentage.

I can tell you for free that this pattern will land you into serious confusion and based on my experience, you will better of focusing on simple methods than complicating things for yourself. By this I mean, as a new investor or new following of this topic, just drop whatever method you have I mind and put your energy into the DCA method, test it for one year and see how great it is. Besides, it removes a lot of stress and overthinking that people do when it comes to know where the price will be because it does not care about the price, just buy with what you budgeted when the time for your DCA come. 

[MainIbem]

I can tell you for free that this pattern will land you into serious confusion and based on my experience, you will better of focusing on simple methods than complicating things for yourself. By this I mean, as a new investor or new following of this topic, just drop whatever method you have I mind and put your energy into the DCA method, test it for one year and see how great it is. Besides, it removes a lot of stress and overthinking that people do when it comes to know where the price will be because it does not care about the price, just buy with what you budgeted when the time for your DCA come. 

A newbie seeking to manage the risk of investing in Bitcoin should definitely go for the DCA strategy cause it very effective when it comes to that, well I'm aware that many newbies have been knowledgeable about Bitcoin investment before they got here and if such persons discretionary is enough to lump sum then nothing stops them from doing it, but I don't buy the idea of waiting for the dip before doing that, the person can be doing the DCA then lump sum with their reserve fund when they experience the dip while doing the DCA.

[Makus]

I agree with you that you don't need to be rich to invest in Bitcoin. You can start with a small income if you want. But you can also think that if you have a stable source of income, deep buying will be more convenient. Since this is a long-term investment system, you can think of it like the stronger the roots of a tree, the better the growth of that tree. You must be patient. Don't get discouraged. Take your time, observe, learn and apply.

Well, the things that should be done when investing in BTC are that, not only the rich have opportunity, we all have opportunity, you just have to have a daily, weekly, monthly plan to buy BTC without affecting the price, I do it and it works Out well for me, sometimes when the price drops I try to look for a little more money to be able to buy more , for me that is the trick to making Things happen in a more intelligent way.

well it doesn't neccessarily need to be a daily, weekly or monthly plan before one can buy bitcoin, the most important thing is you have an accumulation plan because some persons might be working based on contract and whenever they get paid that's when they'll have something to invest with so in such scenario they don't neccessarily have to work on a daily, weekly or monthly plan they can just make their lump sum investment provided they stick to accumulating whenever they have from their discretionary income after which their needs have been settled and also a provision of emergency fund and most importantly, holding for long period of time. if there is something i love about bitcoin is that fact that there is no pressure for making a specific amout of accumualtion at certain period, meaning we are working according to our own pace at our convenience.

[New Judgement]

Some of you might be thinking this is the only place that is kicking against people selling their Bitcoin. Some of you don't know how serious this campaign against selling your Bitcoin is out there. This is a notable figure in the Bitcoin industry who is also an investor (Michael Saylor) clamouring against selling Bitcoin.

Hold your Bitcoin like your life depends on it.

[ZeroVinsonN]

many investors might prefer not to go in at once because they may choose to allocate some  portion of their discretionary income to the bitcoin ,putting the rest in reserve it can then be used to buy the dip when prices fall, some with a good effective cash flow management might stil have a good amount of discretionary income, after covering all their essential expenses than they invest immediately, after that they decide to share their percentage.

You don't have to go all in at once, but how much of your discretionary income are you putting into bitcoin investment, I would advise to go over 60%, you can even decide to be more aggressive if you want to, for a newbie deciding to save up a reasonable amount of your discretionary income for buying the DIP will be considered a financial mistake, why save up for a DIP that might not happen when you can invest with the DCA method, you will end of losing out on so much potential gain when you decide to wait for a DIP instead of just DCAing, you can wait for a DIP for 6 months and buy bitcoin when the dip happens with all you have been saving, but you shouldn't be surprised when the price of bitcoin during that dip ends up being higher than when you started waiting, let's say bitcoin gets to $180k in 6 months and then dips to $130k, you would have bought at a DIP but $130k is higher than the current price of bitcoin so you would have made more profit if you have been accumulating with the DCA method, so the best thing to do is to not wait for a DIP but to keep accumulating bitcoin with DCA.

[Lembo69]

There investors that may not want to go in all at once, they may decide to keep some percentage of there discretionary income and them use the remaining percentage for buying the dip. As per being a low coiner ,

As you said, you can decide to buy dips. No one knows when the market price will dip and when it will be high.

Therefore, it is believed that buying through the DCA strategy without allocating some percentage of your discretionary income for dips will be the best option.

Yes, you can also save for dips. But you don't know when the time for that dip will come. Therefore, it would be wise to buy more and more regularly through the DCA strategy without allocating money for dips.

It would be better to buy regularly without waiting for dips and to maintain discipline in your investment in a sustainable and stronger way.

[Showlove01]

You don't sound confused.

Sure you might have to practice with the ideas for a while and put such ideas into practice within your own life - without being flippant about it, and surely, you might be able to learn to take bitcoin and your cashflow seriously and even learn about bitcoin (and your own self - finances and psychology) along your journey into building up a bitcoin stash and strengthening your cashflow management systems and practices.  And, yeah, all of what you do may or may not end up improving your life and giving you more options by investing into bitcoin as compared to not investing into bitcoin, as you noted that possibility to be part of the mix of things that could end up happening in your life.  

You could make all kinds of great plans, and have everything going for you, and the next thing you know, you got hit by a bus and kilt.  You also could try to figure out some balance, and maybe you get hit by the bus and maybe you don't, and if you end up putting yourself in a better position 4-10 years down the road due to your balanced practices that involve investing, reasonably improved cashflow management practices and some kind of balanced consumption, then yeah, you may or may not be in a better place due to your various efforts.. and bitcoin may or may not be $1-10 million in 10 years.. .it could be ONLY $20k..  

You don't really know the future or the various outcomes, and what outcomes might be more likely than other outcomes, even though if you educate yourself on various matters related to the world, money bitcoin and other topics that might affect you, then you may well be able to put yourself in better positions that you are able to fit into a variety of possibilities, yet how you deal with these matters is in your hands, and what you consider would be the better ways to prepare yourself for a variety of future scenarios would also be within areas that you likely could control.

These are matters that are on you to figure out the various kinds of preparations in regards to attempting to control things that you are able to control and accounting for various possibilities of things that could come at you from things that you either cannot control or that you might only be able to partially control.   There is a mixed bag in life and some folks start out with better tools in their bag, and others are able to acquire some of the better tools along the way to improve their situation at various points along the way, even if there are a lot of challenges in the world and even some bad things going on too.

Hey thanks for breaking that down i think i kinda get it but i’m still feeling a bit fuzzy about balancing it all .
Like, i get that i should focus on controlling what i can control cashflow, small Bitcoin stacking, and maybe not overthinking the rest but sometimes it feels overwhelming when i try to think 4-10 years ahead what if i mess up the balance early on?
Also, the bus metaphor hit me i guess life really can throw anything at you. So maybe it’s more about just starting small, practicing these habits, and seeing how things go over time?

It is not necessary or compulsory that one must start big no, that is not really the idea, one should start with what they can be able to start with whether small or big but the most important thing is starting up first because with time you will grow and sometimes your amount which you normally use for accumulation will increase due to one factor or the other. But any investor who has more than enough can still start big and they will get to their overaccumulation stage or target soon if they are consistent. Dude it is good to be positive all the time so don't think you will mess up just believe you can do it and you can.

[Jewan420]

many investors might prefer not to go in at once because they may choose to allocate some  portion of their discretionary income to the bitcoin ,putting the rest in reserve it can then be used to buy the dip when prices fall, some with a good effective cash flow management might stil have a good amount of discretionary income, after covering all their essential expenses than they invest immediately, after that they decide to share their percentage.

I can tell you for free that this pattern will land you into serious confusion and based on my experience, you will better of focusing on simple methods than complicating things for yourself. By this I mean, as a new investor or new following of this topic, just drop whatever method you have I mind and put your energy into the DCA method, test it for one year and see how great it is. Besides, it removes a lot of stress and overthinking that people do when it comes to know where the price will be because it does not care about the price, just buy with what you budgeted when the time for your DCA come. 

Yes, you are right, since Bitcoin is bullish in the long run, why should we wait for a dip? What is the current price difference? Maybe $10k-$15k or a little more. But if we think about the future, this price difference may not be anything. Just a few years ago, the price difference of $1k-$2k would have seemed very big, but we are still used to the price difference of $10k. In the future, we may face much more volatility than this and we will be able to adapt to it.

So, missing out on buying opportunities in the temptation of some current profits is nothing but foolishness. We do not know when the dip market will come and where it will end, so waiting for it will only miss buying opportunities and prevent you from being a good investor. Because in this way, you may not be able to survive in the investment for a long time and accumulate enough Bitcoin.

[Tmoonz]

You don't sound confused.

Sure you might have to practice with the ideas for a while and put such ideas into practice within your own life - without being flippant about it, and surely, you might be able to learn to take bitcoin and your cashflow seriously and even learn about bitcoin (and your own self - finances and psychology) along your journey into building up a bitcoin stash and strengthening your cashflow management systems and practices.  And, yeah, all of what you do may or may not end up improving your life and giving you more options by investing into bitcoin as compared to not investing into bitcoin, as you noted that possibility to be part of the mix of things that could end up happening in your life.  

You could make all kinds of great plans, and have everything going for you, and the next thing you know, you got hit by a bus and kilt.  You also could try to figure out some balance, and maybe you get hit by the bus and maybe you don't, and if you end up putting yourself in a better position 4-10 years down the road due to your balanced practices that involve investing, reasonably improved cashflow management practices and some kind of balanced consumption, then yeah, you may or may not be in a better place due to your various efforts.. and bitcoin may or may not be $1-10 million in 10 years.. .it could be ONLY $20k..  

You don't really know the future or the various outcomes, and what outcomes might be more likely than other outcomes, even though if you educate yourself on various matters related to the world, money bitcoin and other topics that might affect you, then you may well be able to put yourself in better positions that you are able to fit into a variety of possibilities, yet how you deal with these matters is in your hands, and what you consider would be the better ways to prepare yourself for a variety of future scenarios would also be within areas that you likely could control.

These are matters that are on you to figure out the various kinds of preparations in regards to attempting to control things that you are able to control and accounting for various possibilities of things that could come at you from things that you either cannot control or that you might only be able to partially control.   There is a mixed bag in life and some folks start out with better tools in their bag, and others are able to acquire some of the better tools along the way to improve their situation at various points along the way, even if there are a lot of challenges in the world and even some bad things going on too.

Hey thanks for breaking that down i think i kinda get it but i’m still feeling a bit fuzzy about balancing it all .
Like, i get that i should focus on controlling what i can control cashflow, small Bitcoin stacking, and maybe not overthinking the rest but sometimes it feels overwhelming when i try to think 4-10 years ahead what if i mess up the balance early on?
Also, the bus metaphor hit me i guess life really can throw anything at you. So maybe it’s more about just starting small, practicing these habits, and seeing how things go over time?

Every one will want to squarely attempt in to having that same balancing it all but the question is do we have to wait till we are sure about this? The answer should be no and I remember in of jayjuanGee's post where he said that it is probably not good to consider investing in Bitcoin as a form of achieving perfection or that perfection has to be achieved and this make ls lot of sense. Starting up investment in Bitcoin means we are open to improve in various kind of ways and even when there is are  mistakes of course we can learn from the mistakes and continue the process, there is a lot we can gain from getting experience which is by getting started, I hope you find this post informative.

[I_Anime]

Some of you might be thinking this is the only place that is kicking against people selling their Bitcoin. Some of you don't know how serious this campaign against selling your Bitcoin is out there. This is a notable figure in the Bitcoin industry who is also an investor (Michael Saylor) clamouring against selling Bitcoin.

Hold your Bitcoin like your life depends on it.

Some folk tend to learn the hard way . Not selling is for your own good too , though those that have gone far with their investment can choose to scrape some profit if they feel like it . But those that are new you shouldn’t even be thinking of profits yet , you should focus on building your stash because is directly proportional to your profits the more your stash the more your profit when bitcoin. Surges

[Barrykbest]

I can tell you for free that this pattern will land you into serious confusion and based on my experience, you will better of focusing on simple methods than complicating things for yourself. By this I mean, as a new investor or new following of this topic, just drop whatever method you have I mind and put your energy into the DCA method, test it for one year and see how great it is. Besides, it removes a lot of stress and overthinking that people do when it comes to know where the price will be because it does not care about the price, just buy with what you budgeted when the time for your DCA come. 

A newbie seeking to manage the risk of investing in Bitcoin should definitely go for the DCA strategy cause it very effective when it comes to that, well I'm aware that many newbies have been knowledgeable about Bitcoin investment before they got here and if such persons discretionary is enough to lump sum then nothing stops them from doing it, but I don't buy the idea of waiting for the dip before doing that, the person can be doing the DCA then lump sum with their reserve fund when they experience the dip while doing the DCA.

When I first stepped into Bitcoin and crypto investing, everyone around me kept saying “buy the dip and HODL.” It sounded simple, wait for the price to fall, then buy, then hold forever. But when you’re new, it’s not that easy. Every time the price drops, I start asking myself: “Is this really the dip or is it just the beginning of a bigger crash?” Fear makes me hesitate, and excitement makes me jump in at the wrong time.
As a beginner, I’m learning that “buy the dip” is less about perfectly timing the bottom and more about building a plan I can stick to. If I keep a little extra cash aside, I can slowly buy more when the market is down instead of going all-in at one price. That way, even if I don’t catch the lowest point, I still build my position over time without panicking.
The “HODL” part also tests my emotions. It’s easy to say “I’ll hold long-term,” but when the value of my portfolio drops 20% in a day, my instinct is to sell. I’ve realised I have to prepare myself mentally for volatility. That means only investing what I can afford to leave for years, understanding why I’m buying Bitcoin in the first place, and not letting every price swing control me.
So for me as a beginner, “buy the dip and HODL” really means:
To have a clear plan before buying.
To use small, regular buys rather than trying to pick the perfect bottom.
I should not invest more than I can afford to hold.
I should not rain myself not to panic when the market moves.
I’m starting to see that this strategy is more about discipline than luck.

[Bigjoe33]

Hey thanks for breaking that down i think i kinda get it but i’m still feeling a bit fuzzy about balancing it all .
Like, i get that i should focus on controlling what i can control cashflow, small Bitcoin stacking, and maybe not overthinking the rest but sometimes it feels overwhelming when i try to think 4-10 years ahead what if i mess up the balance early on?
Also, the bus metaphor hit me i guess life really can throw anything at you. So maybe it’s more about just starting small, practicing these habits, and seeing how things go over time?

The journey of Bitcoin accumulation is always a gradual process, it's never a rush, compulsory or do or die affair. Yea, a small Bitcoin stacking as you out it, it's fine, you must always start from somewhere, and gradually you climb. All these bug investors with a whole lot amount of Bitcoin stacked started from zero. There is always a starting point.

Thinking about 4-10 years ahead and if you mess up the balance early on? Here is the thing, since Bitcoin is highly volatile, one can't really predict what it will be now or tomorrow. So what we invest now may not really yield something profitable immediately or in a short time, it might even depreciate. So accumulating to Hodl for long term(4-10 years or above) will only give room for such appreciation which increases your profit. This is because Bitcoin has proven reliable and trustworthy to increase in value in years. So keeping your stash for some years like we mentioned gives you an opportunity to liverage on more value and worth. Also put in mind that accumulation of Bitcoin is also treated as a part time hustle and/or investment which you don't plan to reap from now, but for future purpose. So with this mindset, Holding your accumulated stash for 4-10 years or more wouldn't be an issue since you don't really need it now.

About live hitting you, surely, live will hit and throw stones, but it's a simple but wise strategy used to handle that. Here is the thing. We invest in Bitcoin using our discretionary income, that is the income left after settling your basic needs such as rent, food, etc. so this discretionary funds left, which is doing nothing for you, is what you use to accumulate Bitcoin, yea, not your basic salary or income. Secondly and most importantly too, while accumulating Bitcoin, you also build up an emergency funds from your discretionary funds too. Just like the name, you tap from it anytyan emergency that will be needing cash shows up, like medical bills, accident, etc. with this, when live hits you, you easily face it without messing up the investment. And note that you must not have the emergency funds before you can start you accumulation process, you can start investing in bitcoin from your discretionary income and then gradually build up the emergency funds alongside.

Trust me, once you start your investment journey with the few basic knowledge about Bitcoin investment, you would learn much more better along the line. While you keep on wth your investment, you would experience somethings and get some knowledge first hand which would be very useful to you as an investor.

[UchihaSarada]

Some of you might be thinking this is the only place that is kicking against people selling their Bitcoin. Some of you don't know how serious this campaign against selling your Bitcoin is out there. This is a notable figure in the Bitcoin industry who is also an investor (Michael Saylor) clamouring against selling Bitcoin.

Hold your Bitcoin like your life depends on it.

It is only an advice from Michael Saylor while you must know that different people have different living conditions, financial conditions as well as very different investment capital and positions. Michael Saylor and Strategy can hold their bitcoins very long time, even forever because they have good business model and Bitcoin works for their company in a way that no need of taking profit.

They have abundant money to use so they don't need more money and don't have need to take profit too but let's think about your position.
Is your finance good enough?
Is your investment position good enough?
Do you have any reserved money for bills, live cost and also emergencies?

If you are all good with these things, you can invest your money in bitcoin and hold it very long time like Strategy but let's say you will need to take profit sometime just to enjoy your better life. Be clear about it that you have good income, good reserved money for bills and emergencies so if you take profit, it means you use that money for something else than all those things. It's why I say you only take profit if you want to enjoy a better life with part of profit from your Bitcoin investment.

Consider about this withdrawal strategy
[ANN] JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

[JayJuanGee]

You don't sound confused.

Sure you might have to practice with the ideas for a while and put such ideas into practice within your own life - without being flippant about it, and surely, you might be able to learn to take bitcoin and your cashflow seriously and even learn about bitcoin (and your own self - finances and psychology) along your journey into building up a bitcoin stash and strengthening your cashflow management systems and practices.  And, yeah, all of what you do may or may not end up improving your life and giving you more options by investing into bitcoin as compared to not investing into bitcoin, as you noted that possibility to be part of the mix of things that could end up happening in your life.  
You could make all kinds of great plans, and have everything going for you, and the next thing you know, you got hit by a bus and kilt.  You also could try to figure out some balance, and maybe you get hit by the bus and maybe you don't, and if you end up putting yourself in a better position 4-10 years down the road due to your balanced practices that involve investing, reasonably improved cashflow management practices and some kind of balanced consumption, then yeah, you may or may not be in a better place due to your various efforts.. and bitcoin may or may not be $1-10 million in 10 years.. .it could be ONLY $20k..  

You don't really know the future or the various outcomes, and what outcomes might be more likely than other outcomes, even though if you educate yourself on various matters related to the world, money bitcoin and other topics that might affect you, then you may well be able to put yourself in better positions that you are able to fit into a variety of possibilities, yet how you deal with these matters is in your hands, and what you consider would be the better ways to prepare yourself for a variety of future scenarios would also be within areas that you likely could control.
These are matters that are on you to figure out the various kinds of preparations in regards to attempting to control things that you are able to control and accounting for various possibilities of things that could come at you from things that you either cannot control or that you might only be able to partially control.   There is a mixed bag in life and some folks start out with better tools in their bag, and others are able to acquire some of the better tools along the way to improve their situation at various points along the way, even if there are a lot of challenges in the world and even some bad things going on too.

Hey thanks for breaking that down i think i kinda get it but i’m still feeling a bit fuzzy about balancing it all .
Like, i get that i should focus on controlling what i can control cashflow, small Bitcoin stacking, and maybe not overthinking the rest but sometimes it feels overwhelming when i try to think 4-10 years ahead what if i mess up the balance early on?

Everyone makes a lot of mistakes along the way, and it tends to take a  long time to build an investment portfolio, whether we are talking about investing into bitcoin or anything else.

you have to figure out ways to invest within your budget so that if you believe in the thing that you are investing into (such as bitcoin) then you can invest more aggressively into it, yet in the beginning, you might not really believe in it, and the main thing that you see is that historically it had gone up in price, yet you still have to figure out  a balance in your budget because you might not have a lot of spare money, which perhaps is part of the reason why you are getting nervous about your investment.

Also, no one wants to lose money, yet you should still approach the investment by ONLY investing your extra money that you would be willing to lose if either the investment went against you or you screwed some things up... so the fact that you have money that you might end up losing, you try to take measures to protect your investment and to keep learning about your investment so that you stay comfortable with it, especially for the first whole cycle (your first 4 years buying it). 

Surely if you are able to buy more in the beginning then you might have more options, yet many folks ONLY have extra money from their income or perhaps extra money that they might get from time to time.... which is part of the reason that it can still take a long time to really build your bitcoin stash size up into a meaningful amount.

Imagine that even if you are able to put 10% of your income into bitcoin, it is still going to take you 10 years before you have put a whole year's worth of income into bitcoin.  Sure, there could be ways that you might be able to be more aggressive and to be able to invest more than 10% of your income into bitcoin, yet then you still would be running up against the issue of possibly pushing yourself too much.. so you have to figure out some balance, and that balance comes from practice, doing it and reflecting upon what you are doing in terms fo figuring out if there might be some things that you might change, including considering your 9 factors and perhaps building systems around your 9 factors.

Also, the bus metaphor hit me i guess life really can throw anything at you. So maybe it’s more about just starting small, practicing these habits, and seeing how things go over time?

That is likely the best way.  You will learn more from practice than you will by merely thinking about it or being overly scared... Sometimes after you might be investing for 3-6 months, you might reflect on what you are doing and you might try to think about creative ways that you might be able to increase your discretionary income so that you can invest more, such as increasing your income and/or cutting your expenses...

And, sometimes, even increasing your income might not be a straight forward answer because if you are still  young, then maybe you might consider if there might be some university work that you could do or maybe you go to a technical school to develop some specialties, or maybe you employ some volunteer work or some internship so that you can learn how to do a certain kind of work, and maybe you start outworking for free or for a low amount while you develop skills that you consider will result in your improving your income at later points in your life. .which could result in more meaningful ways to figure out how to incorporate bitcoin into your investment of time, energies and value.. but you might have to incorporate other skills and other ways of spending your time in order to make money, yet there also could be ways to try to combine some of those activities... perhaps? 

Sometimes we are locked into a path that is working, and other times, we have to rethink our direction and figure out what we might need to learn and how we are going to spend our time, energies and money and what we are going to invest into. and how much we might have to balance investing into one thing versus another... since time is also limited, and if we delay getting started or procrastinate in our making progress, then we might regret some opportunities that we missed earlier.. which ends up playing out as mistakes that we hopefully learn from and make adjustments to what we are doing and how we are spending our time, energies and value.

This is referring to time-based sustainable withdrawal, and I probably have not been consistently clear about how to make such calculations, and it was ONLY recently that I had bitmover change the tool on the website so that it has a spot price dollar based calculation and a 200-WMA based calculation (there is a tab on the website to make the selection), and it seems to me that if a dollar based withdrawal rate is based on the dollar value of the 200-WMA, then the 200-WMA tends to signal BTC bottom prices and also it has tended to always go up, so it is a much more stable way of valuating our BTC holdings and determining how much BTC that we are able to sustainably withdraw based on such 200-WMA dollar value.

We are all clear on this due to discussions in other threads. I'm starting to love this strategy but I want to wait a few years to see how it works on in contrast to your predictions.

I know I repeat myself, and surely some folks understand certain points better than others, and some folks are not going to agree with my various strategies and/or opinions, which might be part of the reason that I will repeat various aspects of my discussion, and maybe even attempt to explain better or to learn from my attempts at explanations.

Whether we are talking about price-based sustainable withdrawal or time-based sustainable withdrawal (as I refer to in my sustainable withdrawal thread), a guy might not be in a position to employ one or the other strategy until he has reached some kind of overaccumulation status, and he might not even know exactly what that is going to look like, until he gets close to getting to that point, since the BTC price is ongoingly changing, the debasement of the dollar is changing, and perhaps even his expectations regarding his targeted standard of living might be changing too.

Anyone could proclaim that they are waiting before they might start to employ a sustainable withdrawal strategy, yet their wait might be due to their own uncertainties in regards to whether they have reached a status of having enough or more than enough BTC, so if they are uncertain, then it may well be better to error on the side of just HODLing rather than starting to sell, especially if they are not sure whether they have reached a point of having enough or more than enough.

Regarding your own conviction about the solidness of the strategy. that may be more due to your own perceptions of your own situation rather than the actual ability to back test it.. so with the passage of time, the quantity of BTC needed to maintain a certain standard of living has gone down greatly.. which surely has been the case historically, even though we surely can recognize and appreciate that past performance does not guarantee future results.

Sometimes I won't even mind having some discussion of shitcoins as long as there is some clarity which one (or which ones) are being discussed, so using the category crypto will sometimes make it unclear about what is even being discussed, and if someone were to invest in crypto they need to figure out what they are going to invest into.

I understand your position. I think for certain matters it is alright to group everything else into altcoins when drawing a comparison to Bitcoin. Still for most comparisons one needs to be more specific.

Sometimes the irritation comes from the lack of specification, yet other times, the irritation might come when members end up diverting a bitcoin topic into some things that are not on topic, and maybe even purposefully aimed to divert or to be misleading.  And, surely some folks just use the term crypto to refer to everything, so they end up inadvertently engaging in imprecision that is just sloppy or maybe an attempt to seem smart, but such vagueness ends up showing that they might not be informed enough about bitcoin in order to make sure that they hare specifying what they are talking about and how it relates to bitcoin (if it happens to relate to bitcoin?).

Many of us will also get bothered by people thinking that they are investing into bitcoin, but they are investing into ETFs or they are holding their bitcoin on exchanges, and sure for all intents and purposes, we might be able to concede that even derivative products will still give price exposure, so third parties holding the BTC is ONLY going to negatively impact when there is some kind of bankruptcy or rug pull event.. and we saw quite a few of those in 2022 with FTX and some of the other culprits that ended up going under during that time, starting out with Tera luna that likely did not have as many bitcoin as they claimed to have had, but they were defending a supposed algorithmically stable coin that was supposedly backed by supposed real bitcoin.

I wish that people would self-custody, but the current balances of BTC on exchanges sadly tells us that many people don't do it. In my opinion retail exchanges should have a very low supply of Bitcoin on daily basis.

For sure, the power of bitcoin comes from some amount of self-custody, and not everyone needs to self-custody in order for bitcoin to retain such power, yet at the same time, there may well be some convenience in regards to using custodians, and maybe people don't really imagine that they are going to end up getting rug pulled or locked out or their funds.. or otherwise inconvenienced by their having their coins held with third parties.. . so they may or may not end up suffering  negative consequences of keeping their coins with custodians.

Have people considered that we usually have Uptober because people expect Bitcoin to go up in November and buy in during October? By doing this they generate the bullish sentiment themselves.

I don't know.  Sure there seems to be some liquidity matters that contribute towards seasonality (or calendar timing) of pumps. I don't really change my own behaviors based on what I think might or might not happen in the short term, even if from time to time, I might sometimes perceive that trends (or momentum) might be happening.

There investors that may not want to go in all at once, they may decide to keep some percentage of there discretionary income and them use the remaining percentage for buying the dip. As per being a low coiner ,

As you said, you can decide to buy dips. No one knows when the market price will dip and when it will be high.

Therefore, it is believed that buying through the DCA strategy without allocating some percentage of your discretionary income for dips will be the best option.

I agree with you, but your way of saying these matters is confusing…which in essence you got the idea right, which is just because we do not know if or whether dips will happen, that does not mean that it is a good idea to hold back value for buying dips that could have had otherwise been used to just buy bitcoin regularly.

Yes, you can also save for dips. But you don't know when the time for that dip will come. Therefore, it would be wise to buy more and more regularly through the DCA strategy without allocating money for dips.

It would be better to buy regularly without waiting for dips and to maintain discipline in your investment in a sustainable and stronger way.

Ultimately you got it correct.. especially for newbies.. You  since it can take a long time to just build up a bitcoin holdings, so it likely is better to focus on one’s own capacities, such as finances and how much can be put into bitcoin on a regular basis (such as weekly) rather than trying to figure out whether or not a dip might happen.

[Derekfunds]

Some of you might be thinking this is the only place that is kicking against people selling their Bitcoin. Some of you don't know how serious this campaign against selling your Bitcoin is out there. This is a notable figure in the Bitcoin industry who is also an investor (Michael Saylor) clamouring against selling Bitcoin.

Hold your Bitcoin like your life depends on it.

Some folk tend to learn the hard way . Not selling is for your own good too , though those that have gone far with their investment can choose to scrape some profit if they feel like it . But those that are new you shouldn’t even be thinking of profits yet , you should focus on building your stash because is directly proportional to your profits the more your stash the more your profit when bitcoin. Surges

There is a difference between when you have gone far and when you have reach overaccumulation stage and scraping some profit when you have not reach your overaccumulation stage is a bad idea and if you scrape out profit when your investment is not up to 4 years of holding you can be seen as a short term investors otherwise known as a trader. An investor always hold for long and never think of the profit untill they get to overaccumulation and we should not invest with so much attention to have profit because we can be dismay if the price went in opposite directions (Dip).

[Nightwatchmare]

Bitcoin Investment is all about for discipline in other to succeed if not you will just be at the fence watching, without a normal source which I think you are talking about steady income, you can still have your discretionary income if you are serious about investing into bitcoin, you can get it from any job you do that fetches you income ,even if quarterly, or annual job as long as you have made up your mind and are serious about it, if you can't get discretionary income from your present income is to look for a supportive source of income to make you a bit stable and invest, bitcoin Investment using the dca strategy does not need much money just %10 only whenever you have funds on you and since the t is for a long-term it will be beneficial to you, and if you don't have money to continue your investment, you can pause until you start having money and then continue from where you stop .

I agree, the truth is this makes me remember that on the Spanish board I said something like that and I didn't know that leaving some discretionary income to buy on the dip was a variant of the DCA method, because the DCA method consists of buying daily, weekly, monthly whatever the quota of money to accumulate, I thought that some other income to buy on the dip was another strategy or method and no, it turns out that it is the variant, but it is the safest way to do intelligent DCA work.

You can’t be confused about this, being a Hero member of the forum, how can you say saving money to buy the dip is a variant of Dollar cost average (DCA), and again saying a variant “is the safest way to do intelligent DCA work”, where have you seen a variant better than the original.., that’s by the way.

What you’re saying is just buying the dip and it’s not advisable to keep money aside to buy dips especially if you’re low coiner still in your early stage of accumulating bitcoin. Just DCA regularly and consistently for this is the best strategy for most situations, you can be DCAing regularly and you get to buy at the dips too, just don’t keep money waiting to buy at the dip.

There investors that may not want to go in all at once, they may decide to keep some percentage of there discretionary income and them use the remaining percentage for buying the dip. As per being a low coiner ,it also depends on ones cash flow for someone with a good cash flow management that may have a good amount of discretionary income after sorting out all there expenses may decide not to put all there discretion into buying bitcoin at once they can decide to use some percentage to DCA and the remaining percentage for buying the dips.

Yes, there are investors that won't want to use all their discretionary income to buy Bitcoin at once so that they can save up money they will use to buy the dip. I don't buy the idea of saving up money to buy the dip because we don't know when it will happen, and if it happens, it could be the price that you refused to use all your discretionary income to buy Bitcoin at once. Instead of saving up money to buy the dip, i prefer using all my discretionary income to accumulate Bitcoin with the DCA strategy since it allows me to be consistent in accumulating Bitcoin, and it will also give me the opportunity to buy most dips that will happen.

[gracreavix]

Some of you might be thinking this is the only place that is kicking against people selling their Bitcoin. Some of you don't know how serious this campaign against selling your Bitcoin is out there. This is a notable figure in the Bitcoin industry who is also an investor (Michael Saylor) clamouring against selling Bitcoin.

Hold your Bitcoin like your life depends on it.

Some folk tend to learn the hard way . Not selling is for your own good too , though those that have gone far with their investment can choose to scrape some profit if they feel like it . But those that are new you shouldn’t even be thinking of profits yet , you should focus on building your stash because is directly proportional to your profits the more your stash the more your profit when bitcoin. Surges

There is a difference between when you have gone far and when you have reach overaccumulation stage and scraping some profit when you have not reach your overaccumulation stage is a bad idea and if you scrape out profit when your investment is not up to 4 years of holding you can be seen as a short term investors otherwise known as a trader. An investor always hold for long and never think of the profit untill they get to overaccumulation and we should not invest with so much attention to have profit because we can be dismay if the price went in opposite directions (Dip).

I get your point, but I don’t fully agree. Overaccumulation isn’t really a fixed stage, because everyone’s financial situation and risk tolerance are different. Some people might take profit earlier without it meaning they’re traders, it could just be part of their personal strategy. Holding long term is solid, but labeling anyone who takes profit before 4 years as a trader seems too rigid. Even long term investors sometimes adjust when circumstances change.