China mining decision May 7

[BlackPanda]

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately,

that would have been true if 70% of the hashrate was in China which it clearly isn't.

Chinese government being unsure about bitcoin is nothing new. it has been going on for nearly as long as bitcoin existed. the more they pushed, the more it meant the small number of miners that were in China leaving China into areas outside of their jurisdiction.

For me it is the nature of the Chinese state which has indeed been going on for a long time. China seems to be closing down and they want to have services and maybe even crypto coins themselves. China as usual has made a decision that surprised many parties, I think there are still very many miners from China at this time. But if this regulation is implemented quickly, then it is likely to make a negative impact on the majority of coin prices such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

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[WinslowIII]

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately,

that would have been true if 70% of the hashrate was in China which it clearly isn't.

Chinese government being unsure about bitcoin is nothing new. it has been going on for nearly as long as bitcoin existed. the more they pushed, the more it meant the small number of miners that were in China leaving China into areas outside of their jurisdiction.

For me it is the nature of the Chinese state which has indeed been going on for a long time. China seems to be closing down and they want to have services and maybe even crypto coins themselves. China as usual has made a decision that surprised many parties, I think there are still very many miners from China at this time. But if this regulation is implemented quickly, then it is likely to make a negative impact on the majority of coin prices such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Isn't a large % of litecoin being mined in China as well? let's not forget the original shitcoin.

[nc50lc]

Isn't a large % of litecoin being mined in China as well? let's not forget the original shitcoin.

But we're on "Bitcoin Forum > Economy > Economics > Speculation", it's best to talk about "Bitcoin".
Here, we should be talking about the relation of the possible decision with the market, as I said above, not much of a "buzz".
Miners do it every time: SELL. Banning mining operations in China might slightly affect the market but not that much since they aren't the majority of the traders.

And here's one fun part:
It's a very very good news (for non-Chinese citizens) if OP posted it here: Bitcoin > Mining > Mining speculation.
Low total Hashrate=Low Difficulty=More Coins.

[malcovi2]

Oh cmon, Didnt some of the Chinese bitcoin miners shifted some of their mining facilities to Mongolia? I think read before that the electricity is cheap and the cold weather is suitable for operating.

[noormcs5]

So apparently China will announce their decision in 4 days about mining crypto legality. Here's one scenario:

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately, giving other miners a much larger reward than before. Price crashes as they sell for more profits, and it takes time for other miners to take up the slack in other countries. After things settle out price starts rising again in time for next halving.

What do you think? is there another more likely scenario?

Whatever the decision will be, it will only effect the Chinese community and will have no impact globally and on bitcoin price. We all know now that News from China  these days are only to create Fud and therefore, it has much more less impact on bitcoin price and volume.

[Reid]

They have been great at advertising bitcoin by this kind of news.
Why? They have done it over and over again and it still works.
Do you really think they will just give it up if they have already invested time and effort by doing this kind of act?
I dont think so.

It is like a natural thing by now. Almost every quarter they will put something on the news for social media to talk about it and so it donates a little value for bitcoin.
Then, they can get their profits.

[udidrone]

So apparently China will announce their decision in 4 days about mining crypto legality. Here's one scenario:

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately, giving other miners a much larger reward than before. Price crashes as they sell for more profits, and it takes time for other miners to take up the slack in other countries. After things settle out price starts rising again in time for next halving.

What do you think? is there another more likely scenario?

Whatever the decision will be, it will only effect the Chinese community and will have no impact globally and on bitcoin price. We all know now that News from China  these days are only to create Fud and therefore, it has much more less impact on bitcoin price and volume.

Have a same thoughts with you. But maybe it can be wrong because a lot of people still influenced by chinese news about bitcoin these days. But we must know something like this always happen and people might be already know what it means.

[magneto]

So apparently China will announce their decision in 4 days about mining crypto legality. Here's one scenario:

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately, giving other miners a much larger reward than before. Price crashes as they sell for more profits, and it takes time for other miners to take up the slack in other countries. After things settle out price starts rising again in time for next halving.

What do you think? is there another more likely scenario?

I'm not expecting them to shift their stance on something that they've basically decided long ago, which is to drive crypto businesses (or at least 'unregulated ones', by China's standards) out of the country. This isn't something that is new.

I don't agree with the statement that all of a sudden, hash rate in the network is going to drop by so much. Most Chinese mining companies will either have already relocated overseas, or in the process of doing so. Others that are already operating in secrecy won't be deterred just because the government's stance is formalised.

I highly doubt that it's going to have an effect on the price either way, though if out of the blue they do somehow come out with new regulations for miners, then it would potentially lead to a rally. But as I said, no one expects that scenario to happen.

[adaseb]

I Would be very surprised if they actually did ban it. And even if they banned it, they would set a date in the far off future and people would be prepared for it.

And the hashrate in the end wouldnt change because the ASICs would get shipped and sold off to other countries and they would just get powered on somewhere else.

The difficulty would eventually slowly adjust and even with a massive amount of hashrate gone, the difficulty would go lower and we would get 10 minute block times again.

[Pursuer]

the FUD about China is old news mainly because it was overused to the point that it became see through. you can blame all the FUDsters who came before you, they kept on using the same thing about China banning bitcoin and everything related to it for years and slowly but surely people stopped believing in the lies and nowadays whenever they hear the word "China" the first thing that comes to mind is bullshit

there is also the fact that with all the things that Chinese government has been doing over the past years such as closing exchanges,... every business has exited that country. even Bitmain is no longer under the fingers of Chinese government.

[figmentofmyass]

I highly doubt that it's going to have an effect on the price either way, though if out of the blue they do somehow come out with new regulations for miners, then it would potentially lead to a rally.

never underestimate the "china bans bitcoin" headline! since they're no longer relevant in the exchange space, messing with the mining industry is the last way the chinese government can fuck with the market.

since i don't believe we're in a bull market yet (and in fact i think we're near the top here), if they ban mining in a couple days, i'm confident it'll help trigger a crash.

[bitsurfer2014]

If ever China totally bans crypto mining then I believe it could be a blessing in disguise since this scenario could significantly lessen China's dominance in Bitcoin mining industry and it would result to a more decentralization which is good for the overall security of Bitcoin network since the more segregated the mining power in Bitcoin around the world, the better it will be for the whole  network. And also, it will open up opportunities to other mining pools to try and mine BTC with a lesser threat from overwhelming competitors.

[WinslowIII]

If ever China totally bans crypto mining then I believe it could be a blessing in disguise since this scenario could significantly lessen China's dominance in Bitcoin mining industry and it would result to a more decentralization which is good for the overall security of Bitcoin network since the more segregated the mining power in Bitcoin around the world, the better it will be for the whole  network. And also, it will open up opportunities to other mining pools to try and mine BTC with a lesser threat from overwhelming competitors.

"If ever China totally bans crypto mining"

I don't think you are keeping up with the news much, because I give it an 80% chance of this exact thing happening in 2 days!

But I do agree that long term things will be better without the Chinese involvement in crypto, but short term the price could crash for the reasons I've already stated. I think buying before this Tuesday is pretty fucking risky. If the decision to ban comes as expected, that would be a hell of a nice time to short - but I also expect a significant drop immediately.

[exstasie]

"If ever China totally bans crypto mining"

I don't think you are keeping up with the news much, because I give it an 80% chance of this exact thing happening in 2 days!

80% chance? That seems like a big exaggeration but maybe you're right. I've been hearing about imminent PBOC/Chinese government plans to ban Bitcoin for ~6 years now, including proposals like this one. Given their track record, I'd say the odds are much lower.

If they do truly ban mining, it will be a planned and orderly exit at a future date like adaseb mentioned. Chinese people are heavily invested in Bitcoin and the mining industry and the government isn't interested in massacring those investors. In the past, their overt reasoning for prohibition talk is usually investor protection.

[WinslowIII]

"If ever China totally bans crypto mining"

I don't think you are keeping up with the news much, because I give it an 80% chance of this exact thing happening in 2 days!

80% chance? That seems like a big exaggeration but maybe you're right. I've been hearing about imminent PBOC/Chinese government plans to ban Bitcoin for ~6 years now, including proposals like this one. Given their track record, I'd say the odds are much lower.

If they do truly ban mining, it will be a planned and orderly exit at a future date like adaseb mentioned. Chinese people are heavily invested in Bitcoin and the mining industry and the government isn't interested in massacring those investors. In the past, their overt reasoning for prohibition talk is usually investor protection.

The Chinese government assembled a committee to review the crypto mining situation and they concluded that mining should be banned because it's a waste of resources. The Chinese government gave themselves till May 7th to make a decision. Based on the past Chinese decisions to ban selling crypto for fiat and outlawing icos, I see at minimum a 80% chance of an official ban in 2 days.

[btc_angela]

"If ever China totally bans crypto mining"

I don't think you are keeping up with the news much, because I give it an 80% chance of this exact thing happening in 2 days!

80% chance? That seems like a big exaggeration but maybe you're right. I've been hearing about imminent PBOC/Chinese government plans to ban Bitcoin for ~6 years now, including proposals like this one. Given their track record, I'd say the odds are much lower.

If they do truly ban mining, it will be a planned and orderly exit at a future date like adaseb mentioned. Chinese people are heavily invested in Bitcoin and the mining industry and the government isn't interested in massacring those investors. In the past, their overt reasoning for prohibition talk is usually investor protection.

The Chinese government assembled a committee to review the crypto mining situation and they concluded that mining should be banned because it's a waste of resources. The Chinese government gave themselves till May 7th to make a decision. Based on the past Chinese decisions to ban selling crypto for fiat and outlawing icos, I see at minimum a 80% chance of an official ban in 2 days.

Let's see how it goes, if it has 80% chance then we might as well see some huge impact on the price on May 7th. But I honestly believed that this sort of ban from China is FUD because they know that lately the price is going up. So it's somewhat sketchy as to why they suddenly decides to ban it when the market is already on the road to recovery.

[ausbit]

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately,

that would have been true if 70% of the hashrate was in China which it clearly isn't.

Chinese government being unsure about bitcoin is nothing new. it has been going on for nearly as long as bitcoin existed. the more they pushed, the more it meant the small number of miners that were in China leaving China into areas outside of their jurisdiction.

He is not far from the truth mate and I would not really doubt if 70% of the hashrate is from there because most of the miners are from china because of the access they have to high energy and moreover, majority of the mining machines are being produced in china.

So stopping china from mining will automatically stop them from producing mining machines, other countries mining machines will be quite too expensive also for miners to afford. So this might lead to very big decline in the supplies of cryptocurrency and I really see a lot of coins becoming very expensive as a result for this decision.

[futile-resistance]

So apparently China will announce their decision in 4 days about mining crypto legality. Here's one scenario:

-They say no more mining, 70% of the hashrate disappears immediately, giving other miners a much larger reward than before. Price crashes as they sell for more profits, and it takes time for other miners to take up the slack in other countries. After things settle out price starts rising again in time for next halving.

What do you think? is there another more likely scenario?

With or without china, cryptocurrency will continue in its services to those that needs it, it will never disappear, it is even good as they will no longer get involved, as there is possibility of having limited supply for some of the coins they are mining which will lead to increase in their value as demands become higher than what can be supply.

I don’t see the reason why china would be going against what will benefit them and add more value to their economy, I understand that the cost of mining is quite very high and consumes energy, but the money cryptocurrency brings to their country through these mining is more than enough to pay for all those services and still as to their capital growth.

[WinslowIII]

"If ever China totally bans crypto mining"

I don't think you are keeping up with the news much, because I give it an 80% chance of this exact thing happening in 2 days!

80% chance? That seems like a big exaggeration but maybe you're right. I've been hearing about imminent PBOC/Chinese government plans to ban Bitcoin for ~6 years now, including proposals like this one. Given their track record, I'd say the odds are much lower.

If they do truly ban mining, it will be a planned and orderly exit at a future date like adaseb mentioned. Chinese people are heavily invested in Bitcoin and the mining industry and the government isn't interested in massacring those investors. In the past, their overt reasoning for prohibition talk is usually investor protection.

The Chinese government assembled a committee to review the crypto mining situation and they concluded that mining should be banned because it's a waste of resources. The Chinese government gave themselves till May 7th to make a decision. Based on the past Chinese decisions to ban selling crypto for fiat and outlawing icos, I see at minimum a 80% chance of an official ban in 2 days.

Let's see how it goes, if it has 80% chance then we might as well see some huge impact on the price on May 7th. But I honestly believed that this sort of ban from China is FUD because they know that lately the price is going up. So it's somewhat sketchy as to why they suddenly decides to ban it when the market is already on the road to recovery.

What are you talking about? the committee was assembled weeks if not months ago to look at the situation. For you to say they are all of a sudden looking to ban crypto and it's fud is really ignorant, they already banned selling crypto for yuan and icos a year ago.
I don't know why I bother with relevant issues on this subforum, nobody seems to have a goddamn clue what's happening all they do is look and react to the current price.

[exstasie]

What are you talking about? the committee was assembled weeks if not months ago to look at the situation. For you to say they are all of a sudden looking to ban crypto and it's fud is really ignorant, they already banned selling crypto for yuan and icos a year ago.

On the contrary, China has been threatening ban after ban for the last six years. It's more like "the boy who cried wolf" than anything else. The Chinese government is incredibly divided and fickle and you never have any idea what they're actually going to do. I've lived through literally dozens of "China Bans Bitcoin" rumors (including government committees and statements from PBOC officials) that never materialized. When all the talk of bans arose throughout 2013-2014, all they did was ban commercial banks from holding/trade in crypto.

The only substantive ban (the exchange/ICO ban) was done in the middle of a bubble, which may be relevant here because the government has repeatedly cited over-speculation as a concern. During 2015-2016 (which I think is a better parallel for where the market is) they didn't pass any regulations at all.

All that is to say, I wouldn't be confident in any particular outcome here. Much like Russia, nothing the Chinese government has ever threatened has ever been a sure thing.

Either way, miners have been steadily exiting China for 1.5+ years so this is all being blown out of proportion. If anyone believes Chinese pools are representative of Chinese hash power, they are a fool. Mining businesses stopped receiving energy subsidies in January 2018, and according to government reports, "many Bitcoin mines in China have stopped operating" since January 2018. All the biggest miners have expanded outside of China or entirely moved their operations to Iceland, Canada, the US, etc.

By the way, they never banned trading CNY for Bitcoin. China actually has a really robust OTC market. They banned centralized crypto/CNY exchange platforms. One of the little-discussed motives of adding centralized exchanges to the blanket ICO ban was to stop the exchanges from continuing to act as shadow banks. The issues around money laundering, shadow banking, and capital flight are more complex than this idea that China is simply on a rampage against crypto.