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And no way Usman would win against DDP. Usman gonna get finished before R3 imho.

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I too can't imagine Usman winning, but, in all fairness, I think people underestimate him a bit.
Yes, he's past his prime and approaching 40, and he lost 3 out of his last 4 fights, but that can be deceptive. If we look closer to his losses, things are not looking that bad:
- the first loss to Leon - he was dominating the whole fight and was dropped by a lucky kick.
- second loss to Leon - a close fight lost by decision.
- loss to Khamzat - a close fight taken on a short notice against a boogieman from a higher weight class.
Then he redeemed himself and won against Joaquin Buckley, who was on the rise and had massacred Colby Covington in his previous fight.
DDP is solid and he's the rightful favourite, but his confidence might not be at the same level after Khamzat handed him his first UFC defeat.