🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread

[OgNasty]

Sean Strickland just beat that guy’s ass… He was pounding on him until the ref stopped it. That’s the Strickland you love to see. Hopefully he can get himself on the White House card against Chimaev. He didn’t take much damage tonight.

Think he is going to be on that event now after this win and I think he knew it where he said something about Chimaev so there something to talk about now with him having a titleshot.

I hope so.  From the looks of his X posts though, it seems that Chimaev is ducking him.  I think there might be an issue with weight classes that Dana brought up as well.  I haven't familiarized myself with the details, but Dana wants Chimaev to defend his belt before moving to yet another new weight class.  I think that is the actual stumbling block with them fighting.

[TopTort777]

I saw video from gym when Poatan stood on scales and showed 110kg. I also remember him saying he wants a third belt. To bad Hunter seems to be in charge of UFC now, and Dana could only suggest matchups. From all possible title matches, Poatan vs Gane will be most realistic to win. Gane will most probably fight whole fight standing, exactly what Poatan needs. Aspinall would try to submit. Would be really nice if someone manages to get 3 belts. That will be a history if Poatan makes that, because he cam late to UFC.

I think at this stage of his career, Alex is more interested in big money fights rather than collecting belts. Gane is not the most exciting fighter out there. He got exposed by Jon Jones, although somewhat redeemed himself with the decent beginning ofthe fight with Aspinall, where many expected him to get KO'd very early.
Still, that's not quite the super-fight Pereira would aim for. On the other hand, he has not much left to do, he fought most of the top guys in the light heavyweight division except for Ulberg. Of these two, Gane is the more profitable option, so who knows.
I'm not quite sure what the UFC's stance is on weight-class hopping. It feels like it's getting a bit out of control.

I think that a fight for a heavyweight belt will be huge money for Pereira. Probably even a none title fight in heavyweight will bring more money than any fight in light heavyweight. I dont even see who today could give him a good fight in light heavyweight. Are you sure that Ulberg can handle him or that fight will make good ticket sales?

Recently saw a strange match-up (again). Curtis Blaydes vs Josh Hokit. Top4 vs unranked guy with 8-0 record (who has been fighting unranked guys only). Are we going to see the same what happened in Almeida vs Kuniev? Same top vs nobody. Either UFC gave Blaydes a punching bag, or they want need blood to kickout old school.

[tokeweed]

Yeah that's dumb...  A lower division champ moving up in weight to try and fight just a contender instead of the champ of the higher weight class?  Not really sure what Chim is up to.  He should defend the belt at least once before moving up imho.

I'm not sure how reliable that info is though. I've only heard it from Strickland, who's very interested in badmouthing Khamzat, so who knows if that's true at all. But I don't think Sean would just make it up.

Well Strickland badmouths mostly everybody so I'm pretty sure nobody takes him seriously.  As for the info about Chimaev wanting to move up, it was a journo who asked Dana White about it during last event's post fight press conference.  It could be true, it could be not true but Dana White says Chimaev should prolly defend the belt first before thinking of moving up.

I mostly agree and pretty sure most of you do too.  Chim could be one of the most dominant champs in 180 and with that, a rising popularity.  That's where the big bucks come in.

[Pumared]

Yeah that's dumb...  A lower division champ moving up in weight to try and fight just a contender instead of the champ of the higher weight class?  Not really sure what Chim is up to.  He should defend the belt at least once before moving up imho.

I'm not sure how reliable that info is though. I've only heard it from Strickland, who's very interested in badmouthing Khamzat, so who knows if that's true at all. But I don't think Sean would just make it up.

Well Strickland badmouths mostly everybody so I'm pretty sure nobody takes him seriously.  As for the info about Chimaev wanting to move up, it was a journo who asked Dana White about it during last event's post fight press conference.  It could be true, it could be not true but Dana White says Chimaev should prolly defend the belt first before thinking of moving up.

I mostly agree and pretty sure most of you do too.  Chim could be one of the most dominant champs in 180 and with that, a rising popularity.  That's where the big bucks come in.

I think that after this thing happened where a fighter can move up or down a weight class whenever they want, everyone will want to do that, but it completely takes the focus away from the division and delays many good fights. I think it hinders more than it helps.

[TopTort777]

Fighters will also try to select opponents who seems to be weaker if they were allowed to jump between divisions. For example JDM and potentially Usman (in his form today) are easier opponents for Islam than Topuria or Tsarukyan. And not it will be easier for Islam to return and take belt from Gaethje. I am 100% sure fighters would use that opportunity to avoid inconvenient opponent.

[tokeweed]

^  That's not a problem if you're not the champ in your weight class.  But if you are the champ like Chim is the champ at 185, and a good one at that, it doesn't make sense to move up in weight to challenge some guy.  It would make more sense to take on all comers in his current weight division.  But I don't think the UFC would allow it.  It's Alex Pereira vs Chimaev or bust.

Anyway anybody got some leans or picks this weekend?  These lines are chalky, maybe you guys could suggest me some decent underdogs. 

[Pumared]

Fighters will also try to select opponents who seems to be weaker if they were allowed to jump between divisions. For example JDM and potentially Usman (in his form today) are easier opponents for Islam than Topuria or Tsarukyan. And not it will be easier for Islam to return and take belt from Gaethje. I am 100% sure fighters would use that opportunity to avoid inconvenient opponent.

Exactly, and that ends up making the fights predictable, and it's obvious that the fighter will look for what's easiest for him. It's rare for a fighter to want a big challenge, and with the current fighters, I think we'll never have a UFC 300 with so many good fights, especially in the heavyweight division.

[Hanadawa]

I think that after this thing happened where a fighter can move up or down a weight class whenever they want, everyone will want to do that, but it completely takes the focus away from the division and delays many good fights. I think it hinders more than it helps.

I think there are only a few fighters who can move up weight classes smoothly. But there are some fighters who can't move down to their old weight class after deciding to move up and bulk up. Moving down to a lower weight class can also be very risky if the fighter's natural weight is significantly different from their weight class. As far as I remember, Chimaev once competed at welterweight. But if Chimaev wants to compete at light heavyweight, I think it will be a big challenge for him because there are many monsters there with natural weight like heavyweight fighters. Chimaev doesn't have the bulk like Poatan or Ankalaev. And I also agree that a Chimaev vs. Pereira fight seems like the only possible outcome. By the way, Chimaev will have to defend his belt first. Or finish off another monster in his current division to leave a legacy like some fighters who fight for double champ.

[Pumared]

I think that after this thing happened where a fighter can move up or down a weight class whenever they want, everyone will want to do that, but it completely takes the focus away from the division and delays many good fights. I think it hinders more than it helps.

I think there are only a few fighters who can move up weight classes smoothly. But there are some fighters who can't move down to their old weight class after deciding to move up and bulk up. Moving down to a lower weight class can also be very risky if the fighter's natural weight is significantly different from their weight class. As far as I remember, Chimaev once competed at welterweight. But if Chimaev wants to compete at light heavyweight, I think it will be a big challenge for him because there are many monsters there with natural weight like heavyweight fighters. Chimaev doesn't have the bulk like Poatan or Ankalaev. And I also agree that a Chimaev vs. Pereira fight seems like the only possible outcome. By the way, Chimaev will have to defend his belt first. Or finish off another monster in his current division to leave a legacy like some fighters who fight for double champ.

There are very few fighters who can make that change, but those who can abuse it. And the UFC isn't giving many opportunities to shake up the weight classes; they're focusing on fighters who want to move up or down a weight class.

[pawel7777]

(...) Chim could be one of the most dominant champs in 180 and with that, a rising popularity.  That's where the big bucks come in.

He has (or had) the potential to be the most dominant champ in the whole UFC's history but it's hard to achieve fighting only once a year.
If I remember correctly, he did have some serious health problems in the past, which derailed his career for quite some time.
Now he's 31, so pretty much at his peak. As much as fans would want to see him fighting multiple times a year, his (or his manager's) tactic is more likely to focus on high-profile opponents, rather than going through extensive (and expensive) camps, weight cutting and all that, just to fight some low-money fights more often.

Right now, he doesn't have too many goodoptions in the middleweight. Strickland is probably the best one, as Sean could hype that fight singlehandedly. But other than that? Imanov? He deserves the title shot but is not very exciting. A rematch with DDP? Potentially good option but Dricus would need some convincing win for that to happen, and would need to convince the crowd he has a solution to Chimaev's takedowns.

Maybe Chimaev moving up is not the worst option.

Here's a fresh clip of him sparring with Khalil Rountree (+ Luke Rockhold). He looks much bigger than Khalil and seems to be doing OK with his striking:
https://x.com/ChampRDS/status/2027120045126480011

[trendcoin]

Khamzat shared his sparring with Khalil Rountree and Luke Rockhold. DC made a video about it. I agree with what DC said. It wouldn’t be surprising if Khamzat moved up to light heavyweight. He didn't look small against Khalil Rountree and Luke Rockhold.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/xSec8EgCtBA


The UFC has many champions challenging champions in other weight classes, and they mention this in their statements, but the uncertainty in UFC rules doesn't allow for it. I wish there were fixed rules known to everyone and announced at the start of the game. One fighter gets this right while another doesn't. Isn't that a clear injustice? At this point, one fighter gains an advantage while the other is clearly treated unfairly.

Conor McGregor moved up to lightweight for a title fight without ever defending his featherweight belt. Ilia Topuria moved up to lightweight without fully defending his featherweight title against all top contenders.

I've always believed that there are no clearly defined, equal rules for everyone in the UFC because they know that if there were, they couldn't unfairly target certain names.

[TopTort777]

Anyway anybody got some leans or picks this weekend?  These lines are chalky, maybe you guys could suggest me some decent underdogs.  

If you are looking for underdog to bet, then I could only suggest to look on Zellhuber vs Green fight. Zellhuber is young, came from Dana series, but his UFC record is 4-3 only. Lost two fights. Might not be a very perspective and skilled fighter. His opponent is old but that old can be converted into years of experience. Bookies give 4.60 -4.70 on Green. Maybe this time old school will teach young blood a lesson. That new blood already lost to such old school as Michael Johnson by UD. Maybe scenario will repeats this weekend.

There are other underdogs, but their fights imho are more random than Zellhuber vs Green. Anyway I cant find anything by quick search why rest underdogs could win.

[tokeweed]

Maybe a good live bet.  If Green doesn't get KO'd and gets past R1 I might pull the trigger if the line is good enough. 

(...) Chim could be one of the most dominant champs in 180 and with that, a rising popularity.  That's where the big bucks come in.

He has (or had) the potential to be the most dominant champ in the whole UFC's history but it's hard to achieve fighting only once a year.
If I remember correctly, he did have some serious health problems in the past, which derailed his career for quite some time.
Now he's 31, so pretty much at his peak. As much as fans would want to see him fighting multiple times a year, his (or his manager's) tactic is more likely to focus on high-profile opponents, rather than going through extensive (and expensive) camps, weight cutting and all that, just to fight some low-money fights more often.

Right now, he doesn't have too many goodoptions in the middleweight. Strickland is probably the best one, as Sean could hype that fight singlehandedly. But other than that? Imanov? He deserves the title shot but is not very exciting. A rematch with DDP? Potentially good option but Dricus would need some convincing win for that to happen, and would need to convince the crowd he has a solution to Chimaev's takedowns.

Maybe Chimaev moving up is not the worst option.

Here's a fresh clip of him sparring with Khalil Rountree (+ Luke Rockhold). He looks much bigger than Khalil and seems to be doing OK with his striking:
https://x.com/ChampRDS/status/2027120045126480011

Yup, he had covid...  The bad kind.  Maybe they're not telling us about the complications.  There must be a reason why he's just fighting once a year.  I mean a guy who's as good as him should be fighting three times a year and cashing those checks.

Anyway, I don't see any news for the weigh in schedule.  Is everything ok in Mexico rn?  The video should be up and scheduled in the UFC's YT account.

[rdbase]

...
Anyway, I don't see any news for the weigh in schedule.  Is everything ok in Mexico rn?  The video should be up and scheduled in the UFC's YT account.

Was checking to see if weigh-ins were being broadcasted where they usually have them the day before the fight, but nothing came up.

They are currently showing the results from their website:
https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-moreno-kavanagh-weigh-in-results-mexico

[Pumared]

The UFC has many champions challenging champions in other weight classes, and they mention this in their statements, but the uncertainty in UFC rules doesn't allow for it. I wish there were fixed rules known to everyone and announced at the start of the game. One fighter gets this right while another doesn't. Isn't that a clear injustice? At this point, one fighter gains an advantage while the other is clearly treated unfairly.

Conor McGregor moved up to lightweight for a title fight without ever defending his featherweight belt. Ilia Topuria moved up to lightweight without fully defending his featherweight title against all top contenders.

I've always believed that there are no clearly defined, equal rules for everyone in the UFC because they know that if there were, they couldn't unfairly target certain names.

The point is precisely this: rules exist, but they are ignored when money is involved. This means that most of the time there are no rules. Perhaps now at Paramount this will decrease because they must be demanding higher ratings, but in short, everything you said happened because it was more financially advantageous for the UFC than following rules for the viewers.

[pawel7777]

(...)
Yup, he had covid...  The bad kind.  Maybe they're not telling us about the complications.  There must be a reason why he's just fighting once a year.  I mean a guy who's as good as him should be fighting three times a year and cashing those checks.
(...)

It's not just him who fights less frequently. I think the same goes for all of the top names. I remember Islam saying he wanted to fight 3 times each year, but he's also nowhere near that and is also close to 1 fight a year.
It could either be the UFC strategy, to save their top stars for special occasions and not spoil the fans with high profile fights every week or two, or it could be the managers figuring out that more fights don't have to mean more money.

Back to the Chimaev, I was listening to some mma podcast and a guy was saying about Chim fighting Jiri like it's a done deal, so it could be more than just Strickland letting his imagination go loose.

[tokeweed]

^  I know but just saying, in his case it could be something related or some complications happening with him due to his getting the serious kind of covid.

Anyway, looks like the event is a go.  Here are the weigh in results.

Brandon Moreno (125.5) vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (125)
David Martinez (135) vs. Marlon Vera (136)
King Green (155) vs. Daniel Zellhuber (155)
Felipe Bunes (125) vs. Edgar Chairez (125)
Kevin Borjas (126) vs. Imanol Rodriguez (125)
Santiago Luna (136) vs. Angel Pacheco (135)
Ryan Gandra (185) vs. Jose Medina (186)
Macy Chiasson (135) vs. Ailin Perez (136)
Kris Moutinho (136) vs. Cristian Quinonez (136)
Douglas Silva de Andrade (146) vs. Javier Reyes (145)
Ernesta Kareckaite (129.5) vs. Regina Tarin (130) – 130-pound catchweight
Francis Marshall (145) vs. Erik Silva (146)
Damian Pinas (186) vs. Wesley Schultz (186)

Here's the face off vid.

UFC Mexico:  Fighter Face Offs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-x9JVu0z0Kc

[pawel7777]

UFC 327 has been announced. The event will take place in Miami on 12th April.
https://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-327
The main event will be Jiri Prochazka Vs Carlos Ulberg and it will be for... Light heavyweight title.
This means Alex Pereira has vacated the title. The rumour is he is moving up to heavyweight, which I don't think is officially confirmed, but I think that's the only logical conclusion. The speculation is Pereira will either fight Gane for a heavyweight title (interim or vacated) or he will fight Jon Jones (possibly at the White House event).

As of now, the card is as follows:

Jiří Procházka   vs.   Carlos Ulberg
Joshua Van (c)   vs.   Tatsuro Taira
Beneil Dariush   vs.   Manuel Torres            
Mateusz Gamrot   vs.   Esteban Ribovics            
Curtis Blaydes   vs.   Josh Hokit            
Kevin Holland   vs.   Randy Brown            
Patrício Pitbull   vs.   Aaron Pico            
Dominick Reyes   vs.   Johnny Walker            
Azamat Murzakanov   vs.   Paulo Costa            
Tatiana Suarez   vs.   Loopy Godinez            
 Cub Swanson   vs.   Nate Landwehr            
Kelvin Gastelum   vs.   Vicente Luque            
Christopher Alvidrez   vs.   Francisco Prado

[TopTort777]

Maybe a good live bet.  If Green doesn't get KO'd and gets past R1 I might pull the trigger if the line is good enough. 

Have you managed to use that opportunity to make a small bet on Green? As Green TKOed kid on the second round. I think Green won only thanks to experience. In the second round, when he landed left and dazed a bit, Zellhuber instead of trying to win time and recover, went forward. As if damage from the left came after some seconds, but Zellhuber was already in attack. Kinda body and brain reacted with pause on first damage.

[tokeweed]

^  Lmaaaooo  Kiiing Greeeen!!!  Sadly no, as I didn't watch the event.  

But still...  Nice call there.  Maybe next time we plan something up.  I let everybody itt make picks, I bet on some and share the winnings if it hits.  If it loses, it's on me.  

Anyway, here's the results of the event.  Looks like Kavanaugh doesn't have cardio issues.  I wanna see him fight Kape.  Let's see if he has what it takes to fight for the belt.

Lone'er Kavanagh def. Brandon Moreno via unanimous decision (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
David Martinez def. Marlon Vera via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
King Green def. Daniel Zellhuber via TKO (punches) – Round 2, 4:55
Edgar Chairez def. Felipe Bunes via split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Imanol Rodriguez def. Kevin Borjas via TKO (punches) – Round 2, 4:21
Santiago Luna def. Angel Pacheco via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Ryan Gandra def. Jose Daniel Medina via TKO (punches) – Round 1, 0:41
Ailin Perez def. Macy Chiasson via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Cristian Quinonez def. Kris Moutinho via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Javier Reyes def. Douglas Silva de Andrade via TKO (punches) – Round 1, 4:59
Regina Tarin def. Ernesta Kareckaite via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Francis Marshall def. Erik Silva via submission (rear-naked choke) – Round 1, 2:29
Damian Pinas def. Wesley Schultz via TKO (punch) – Round 1, 2:30

UFC Mexico:  Post Fight Press Conference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8XaVnvw_ZQ

Edit:  Typos.