🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread

[tokeweed]

^  I know...  But I like making small bets on long shots for the lulz from time to time.  Kinda like these degen parlays.    You never know, one of them might hit one day and we get some cheddar cheese.  

Here's the countdown vid for UFC 329 for those who follow.  This should be extra good.

UFC 329:  Countdown
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9a03Q4PT8s8

Enjoy...

[TopTort777]

tokeweed, do you run statistics of your betting performance? Like biggest win, predicted almost every fight except one, victory by betting on huge underdog. Or you just feel like you in profit, have fun and that is enough for you?

I know you like risky bet, UFC know that too so they have prepared Gable Stevenson vs Elisha Elisson for you 13.25 odds on underdog First time I see such a mismatch in UFC or mma. Last time I saw such a mismatch was when older brother whooped little kids ass who was bullying his young brother

Btw, McGregor by decision for 12.00 isnt such an unreal outcome. If UFC still see him as milking cow, Conor survive for 15 minutes and shows a close rounds, he might actually win it.

[tokeweed]

^  It's a mix of both.    I only bet on underdogs that I think are live or those underdogs that I think could make the fight close.That means the odds have value...  I think.  Lolol.

And nice one on suggesting McGregor via decision.  That could more likely happen than Holloway via SUB imho.  Thanks for putting that in mind.  Might put a little bet there and give you some of the proceeds if it wins. 

[notblox1]

^  It's a mix of both.    I only bet on underdogs that I think are live or those underdogs that I think could make the fight close.That means the odds have value...  I think.  Lolol.

I like playing on underdogs, but only when I see good value, not always.
I simply cant back Conor McGregor in this fight, even if I know he is dangerous and can hurt everyone.
On this fight card I do like odds on Paddy Pimblett to win against Benoit Saint Denis, but it wont be easy win.

[TopTort777]

^  It's a mix of both.    I only bet on underdogs that I think are live or those underdogs that I think could make the fight close.That means the odds have value...  I think.  Lolol.

And nice one on suggesting McGregor via decision.  That could more likely happen than Holloway via SUB imho.  Thanks for putting that in mind.  Might put a little bet there and give you some of the proceeds if it wins. 

My thoughts why McGregor by decision can be a good bet. Conor has always been UFC lover boy and was receiving privileges. If the fight goes full distance and Max would not be obviously totally dominating Conor, we might get a robbery in the end. If fight goes 60/40 in Max favor, UFC might try to turn this into split win for Conor. As usually it will cause lots of talk, Dana would say as always that he disagree with decision but he has no power on judges. But overall UFC need Conor win more than his loss. I would say that McGregor by decision does not really look like 12.00 (so unreal to happen). As a risk level it might be close to 2.5 or 3, but bookies sell that for 12.

[tokeweed]

^  If it's total domination by Holloway, then I don't think there's gonna be any robbery of some kind.  But if McGregor makes it close enough and even if it looks like the fight went Holloway's way, yeah...  I wouldn't really be surprised to see a controversial decision...  Which then again would work in the UFC's favor and for both Holloway and McGregor.  They're gonna run it back and you know what that means...    More cheddar cheeeeeese. 

Anyway, still trying to figure out the degen parlay...  What do you guys think of Royval and Garbrandt as underdogs?

[TopTort777]

Garbrandt ? Not the bets choice for underdog bet As Cody is famous for his low fighting IQ. I think 3 KOes in a row has left a real crack in his jaw. He is now in 3 lose streak. He won last fight only due to 2 point reduction form his opponent, otherwise it would be a loss. When Royval has 2 losses against champ and #2 rank guy. Royval looks better than Garbrandt as underdog for me. Between their opponents, both are trashy lol, but Yañez seems better and more experience. That is a red flag (or orange lol) for choosing Garbrandt as underdog bet.

[chinhar]

But Fiziev should do something with his defense. I am sick watching how used-to-elite-muay-thai guy have started to block most of punches by head. If we close eyes on knockout, Fiziev ate some nice strikes. If he continues like this, crystal chin wont be far away. Anyway, no matter how cool Fiziev is, top10-15 I think will be his maximum for today. Maybe he can beat Hooker, but everyone above Hookers are mission impossible for Fiziev.

This is a very emerging problem in Muay Thai that I don't appreciate at all. On the one hand, for them, it's a sport to show who's tougher, so taking hits without falling is their strong point. But on the other hand, it seems to me that they're moving away from dodging and blocking skills, which creates danger if you're facing a fighter who hits hard. I think this is partly due to Rodtang's direct confrontational style, where he wants his opponents to face him face-to-face, and he purposely gets hit a lot.

[Pumared]

^  If it's total domination by Holloway, then I don't think there's gonna be any robbery of some kind.  But if McGregor makes it close enough and even if it looks like the fight went Holloway's way, yeah...  I wouldn't really be surprised to see a controversial decision...  Which then again would work in the UFC's favor and for both Holloway and McGregor.  They're gonna run it back and you know what that means...    More cheddar cheeeeeese. 

Anyway, still trying to figure out the degen parlay...  What do you guys think of Royval and Garbrandt as underdogs?

I think it could simply end in a split decision, because Connor has studied the game but is still weak, and Holloway is strong but can't impose his game on his opponent. It's very easy for that to happen, especially considering the current level of both fighters.

[pawel7777]

For Conor Vs Max, I'm pretty sure both are too confident (perhaps over-confident) in their striking abilities to even think of shooting for a takedown, which is more energy draining than striking in a stand-up.
Conor was a master in counters back in his prime and was very creative (remember shoulder strikes against Donald Cerrone?) so if there's anything of that left in him, we could see a surprisingly good fight.

The biggest challenge for Conor will be loss of speed and cardio. Not only he's getting close to 40 now, but he got noticeably bigger during his period of inactivity.
I wonder how likely he is to use PED. Sure, he could get suspended after the fight, but unless his contract does not involve any significant financial penalty, would he even care at this point?

[notblox1]

I wonder how likely he is to use PED. Sure, he could get suspended after the fight, but unless his contract does not involve any significant financial penalty, would he even care at this point?

Not even PED can help him win this fight, he is only doing it for money and political reasons, he is not even hiding that.
We cant say that Max Holloway is young also, he is 34, but he had more fights than Conor and he needs a win after losing from Charles Oliveira few months ago.
This could be his chance to revenge after losing from Conor back in 2013.

[OgNasty]

I wonder how likely he is to use PED. Sure, he could get suspended after the fight, but unless his contract does not involve any significant financial penalty, would he even care at this point?

Not even PED can help him win this fight, he is only doing it for money and political reasons, he is not even hiding that.
We cant say that Max Holloway is young also, he is 34, but he had more fights than Conor and he needs a win after losing from Charles Oliveira few months ago.
This could be his chance to revenge after losing from Conor back in 2013.

Looking at the gambling odds, people certainly aren’t expecting Conor to get a win. Sort of crazy actually to see him as such an underdog. 5 years away from the fight game is a long time. I’m with the crowd in thinking that we may see McGregor get embarrassed, but he is a great. Maybe he can be great again (never the case).

[bbc.reporter]

Btw, McGregor by decision for 12.00 isnt such an unreal outcome. If UFC still see him as milking cow, Conor survive for 15 minutes and shows a close rounds, he might actually win it.

It appears that you are agreeing on that prediction that I have declared in the other thread and do not anymore argue on your prediction that Conor will sit on a stool similar to the big headed Topuria hehehehe.

In any case, yes! We will witness a new type of Conor where he has become a wrestler and he will use this with all of stamina and win with a split decision against this dried fish body Max Holloway!

[TopTort777]

Btw, McGregor by decision for 12.00 isnt such an unreal outcome. If UFC still see him as milking cow, Conor survive for 15 minutes and shows a close rounds, he might actually win it.

It appears that you are agreeing on that prediction that I have declared in the other thread and do not anymore argue on your prediction that Conor will sit on a stool similar to the big headed Topuria hehehehe.

In any case, yes! We will witness a new type of Conor where he has become a wrestler and he will use this with all of stamina and win with a split decision against this dried fish body Max Holloway!

Indeed my opinion has change a bit about Conor. Like I have said later, I havent seen his form or any training to clearly say he will 100% lose. I still think he will lose (but that isnt that obvious like I used to think). But I give some chances that UFC will try to cheat if fight goes to judges, and make Conor win by decision, even though he was losing the fight. Something like see 1 episodes of Conor winning, but be blind when in 100 episodes Max dominated him It is not Conor that is going to win, but UFC that are going to make him win.

[tokeweed]

Garbrandt ? Not the bets choice for underdog bet As Cody is famous for his low fighting IQ. I think 3 KOes in a row has left a real crack in his jaw. He is now in 3 lose streak. He won last fight only due to 2 point reduction form his opponent, otherwise it would be a loss. When Royval has 2 losses against champ and #2 rank guy. Royval looks better than Garbrandt as underdog for me. Between their opponents, both are trashy lol, but Yañez seems better and more experience. That is a red flag (or orange lol) for choosing Garbrandt as underdog bet.

Yeah but for the line the bookies gave Garbrandt, I'm willing to take it since it's just a small bet and such a long shot degen parlay. 

Anyway we got a huge line for picking Royval and Garbrandt as underdogs...  1569.72.    So that means 10 bucks win 15,569 USD!  Chedda cheeese. 

Here are the picks.

Holloway
BSD
Sandhagen
Royval
McKinney
Whittaker
Garbrandt
Riley
Cong
Pinas
Gandra
Costa

[Pumared]

For Conor Vs Max, I'm pretty sure both are too confident (perhaps over-confident) in their striking abilities to even think of shooting for a takedown, which is more energy draining than striking in a stand-up.
Conor was a master in counters back in his prime and was very creative (remember shoulder strikes against Donald Cerrone?) so if there's anything of that left in him, we could see a surprisingly good fight.

The biggest challenge for Conor will be loss of speed and cardio. Not only he's getting close to 40 now, but he got noticeably bigger during his period of inactivity.
I wonder how likely he is to use PED. Sure, he could get suspended after the fight, but unless his contract does not involve any significant financial penalty, would he even care at this point?

It's not hard to imagine both of them exhausted after the first round was a fierce exchange of blows and takedowns to one side or the other. It's easier for absolutely nothing to come out of this fight than for us to see a major comeback. At least not on Connor's part.

[OgNasty]

For Conor Vs Max, I'm pretty sure both are too confident (perhaps over-confident) in their striking abilities to even think of shooting for a takedown, which is more energy draining than striking in a stand-up.
Conor was a master in counters back in his prime and was very creative (remember shoulder strikes against Donald Cerrone?) so if there's anything of that left in him, we could see a surprisingly good fight.

The biggest challenge for Conor will be loss of speed and cardio. Not only he's getting close to 40 now, but he got noticeably bigger during his period of inactivity.
I wonder how likely he is to use PED. Sure, he could get suspended after the fight, but unless his contract does not involve any significant financial penalty, would he even care at this point?

It's not hard to imagine both of them exhausted after the first round was a fierce exchange of blows and takedowns to one side or the other. It's easier for absolutely nothing to come out of this fight than for us to see a major comeback. At least not on Connor's part.

I think Conor will be far more exhausted than Holloway.  Maybe I'm wrong, but I suspect his memory will quickly return when he steps in that cage just how difficult it is to fight at that level.  I was surprised to see that Holloway is such a heavy favorite, as I thought the Conor fans would be throwing money at his return.  It seems they are remaining cautious, which is a good take.  I really don't see how Conor can win this fight, but I would love to see it happen.

[eaLiTy]

~
I think Conor will be far more exhausted than Holloway.  Maybe I'm wrong, but I suspect his memory will quickly return when he steps in that cage just how difficult it is to fight at that level.  I was surprised to see that Holloway is such a heavy favorite, as I thought the Conor fans would be throwing money at his return.  It seems they are remaining cautious, which is a good take.  I really don't see how Conor can win this fight, but I would love to see it happen.

I watched an interview with Conor McGregor and Brett Okamoto where McGregor looked really calm, almost in a zen mode. He was praising God for his calm composure, which was surprising. In the interview, he claimed that he is confident and wants to prove everyone wrong, while being well aware of the fact that fighting Max Holloway is a massive hurdle for his return fight.

The way I see this fight playing out, Conor McGregor tries to hunt for a finish in the first two rounds. But if the fight gets dragged into the deep water of the later rounds, Max Holloway will pick him apart to secure a TKO victory.

[pawel7777]

I watched an interview with Conor McGregor and Brett Okamoto where McGregor looked really calm, almost in a zen mode. He was praising God for his calm composure, which was surprising. In the interview, he claimed that he is confident and wants to prove everyone wrong, while being well aware of the fact that fighting Max Holloway is a massive hurdle for his return fight.
(...)

Yeah, Conor gave a few interviews recently. I've seen the exclusive he gave to TNT Fight Sports.
Just judging from his body language and his talking style alone, it's almost like he's a different person as compared to his younger self, when he was climbing up the ladder.
This is not necessarily an indication of anything being wrong with him, but he's definitely in a completely different mental place and will probably have to approach the fight differently than he used to, as he can no longer rely on hunger and aggression.
I'm really curious about how the fight will go, but it's hard to imagine he will have his hand raised.

[bbc.reporter]

Btw, McGregor by decision for 12.00 isnt such an unreal outcome. If UFC still see him as milking cow, Conor survive for 15 minutes and shows a close rounds, he might actually win it.

It appears that you are agreeing on that prediction that I have declared in the other thread and do not anymore argue on your prediction that Conor will sit on a stool similar to the big headed Topuria hehehehe.

In any case, yes! We will witness a new type of Conor where he has become a wrestler and he will use this with all of stamina and win with a split decision against this dried fish body Max Holloway!

Indeed my opinion has change a bit about Conor. Like I have said later, I havent seen his form or any training to clearly say he will 100% lose. I still think he will lose (but that isnt that obvious like I used to think). But I give some chances that UFC will try to cheat if fight goes to judges, and make Conor win by decision, even though he was losing the fight. Something like see 1 episodes of Conor winning, but be blind when in 100 episodes Max dominated him It is not Conor that is going to win, but UFC that are going to make him win.

On the conspiracy theory that uncle Dana is manipulating these fights, I understand the speculation hehehe. However, similar to what we have witnessed from the fights before similar to mr. Highlight Gaethje vs the big headed Topuria and the potato head Chimaev vs Sean Strickland, these fights might be more difficult to manipulate than what we speculate.

If uncle Dana can manipulate these fights, we can be quite certain that all the superfights in the UFC that the fans want will become a reality heheheh.