Article: BTC bubbles repeat, but much higher ?

[Kapyong]

Gday all,

Some time ago, I read an interesting article that showed how each of the BTC bubbles followed a similar well-known pattern :


The point was, each BTC peak was way higher than the previous one - like orders of magnitude higher.

IIRC:
First peak went to a few cents,
2nd peak went to a few dollars,
3rd peak was quite a few dollars,
last peak was $20,000.

But each followed the same bubble pattern, just at different scales.

I cannot seem to find it now, hoping some knowledgeable reader can recall that specific article ?
Maybe that's why some posters predict the next peak ?

Kapyong

[Beerwizzard]

First of all on previous BTC bubbles we didn't have the institutional investors and we still don't have them. But the bubble pattern on the chart is always looking the same.
Also, on the picture that you showed it seems to be a pretty young market because institutional investors are just entering in. If market survived the bubble then now when they initially have big investors the market would develop in far more safer way.

[Kapyong]

Sure,
not saying it's all a perfect fit, but it was an interesting article with some merit and I can't seem to find it anywhere now

His overall argument that each bubble went significantly higher was correct though, and if the model holds, then the next bubble will be to the MOON with lambos for all !

[odolvlobo]

Gday all,

Some time ago, I read an interesting article that showed how each of the BTC bubbles followed a similar well-known pattern :
https://blogs-images.forbes.com/jessecolombo/files/2014/02/stages_bubble.png

The point was, each BTC peak was way higher than the previous one - like orders of magnitude higher.

IIRC:
First peak went to a few cents,
2nd peak went to a few dollars,
3rd peak was quite a few dollars,
last peak was $20,000.

But each followed the same bubble pattern, just at different scales.

I cannot seem to find it now, hoping some knowledgeable reader can recall that specific article ?
Maybe that's why some posters predict the next peak ?

There are many such articles. Many people have noted that bubbles, whether in cryptocurrencies, stocks, or houses, follow a similar pattern.

However, keep in mind the circular reasoning: bubbles follow the same pattern because we use the pattern to identify them as bubbles.

[NeuroticFish]

then the next bubble will be to the MOON with lambos for all

This is why FOMO strikes, this is why so many leave disappointed when the bubble pops, that's why some end up hating Bitcoin forever: because all get lured by the mirage of a new and higher bubble.
What if no bubble will happen? What if Bitcoin will simply stay around the "Mean" area for the next years? Or what if, even worse, the ones that bought at 3000-4000$ will take advantage of the growth and will sell, triggering  a new episode of crypto winter?
I don't say bad things will happen, but please, don't be always over-optimistic. Hope for the best, but always prepare for the worse.

[Haunebu]

Sure,
not saying it's all a perfect fit, but it was an interesting article with some merit and I can't seem to find it anywhere now

His overall argument that each bubble went significantly higher was correct though, and if the model holds, then the next bubble will be to the MOON with lambos for all !

Very unrealistic in my opinion. Honestly, no one wants such bubbles and inorganic growth because BTC would continue being viewed as a pump and dump coin and exhibits extremely high volatility.

Organic growth is what we need from BTC and it will help decrease volatility overall and push adoption upwards.

[Kapyong]

My optimism is well deflated now.
I do not think there is a peak coming which is orders of magnitude higher than last time.

But it was an interesting analysis, based on facts.

Then when I went to find the article again, I couldn't, so now I'm a little annoyed at failing to find it again, and wondered if it leapt to mind for anyone.

I linked to that classic bubble graph image because that same curve was shown in the article matched to each previous BTC bubble.

Oh well, not a big issue

[Kapyong]

Very unrealistic in my opinion. Honestly, no one wants such bubbles and inorganic growth because BTC would continue being viewed as a pump and dump coin and exhibits extremely high volatility.

Organic growth is what we need from BTC and it will help decrease volatility overall and push adoption upwards.

Yup, I agree we want stable growth, not bubbles.
But considering human nature, not sure that's actually what will happen.

Meanwhile - we are about a year away from the next mining reward halving, and that has been connected to previous price rises.

Seeing that BTC spiked rapidly before, must be plenty of people hoping it happens again so they can get some of the action. I've seen a few posters here who seem convinced the next spike is huge, and soon (perhaps they read that article.)

I think FOMO is rising again, helped along with BTC news which I think has been quite positive on balance lately. All backed by that seductive dream of easy money.

Another bubble seems possible, maybe even probable ?

[Kapyong]

Hahaha ...

Just tried again to google that article - and guess what ?

THIS very thread was the first result !

Only 11 hrs old.

[Ailmand]

Just because the price of Bitcoin is going better it doesn't mean that we could consider it a bubble. There's been a roller coaster ride in crypto but that's because of its volatility. Don't panic but rather try to accumulate more. We should actually see the positive side of the rise of the market instead of doubting about it.

[okala]

Gday all,

Some time ago, I read an interesting article that showed how each of the BTC bubbles followed a similar well-known pattern :


The point was, each BTC peak was way higher than the previous one - like orders of magnitude higher.

IIRC:
First peak went to a few cents,
2nd peak went to a few dollars,
3rd peak was quite a few dollars,
last peak was $20,000.

But each followed the same bubble pattern, just at different scales.

I cannot seem to find it now, hoping some knowledgeable reader can recall that specific article ?
Maybe that's why some posters predict the next peak ?

Kapyong

Bitcoin bull run have always followed the same pattern, I will not call it a bubble because we all know what I bubble means and bitcoin should not be refer to as a bubble because when a bubble burst nothing remains but bitcoin have never dropped to zero cent before. The chart have always follow the same pattern but the only difference is the time frame. The timing for all this rise are different only pattern of movement is the same.

[vv181]

~
I cannot seem to find it now, hoping some knowledgeable reader can recall that specific article ?
Maybe that's why some posters predict the next peak ?

I'm not sure I'm aware of the article what you wanted.
Nevertheless, It just Markets psychology. Some say even if Bitcoin is a highly speculative asset, its follow the same pattern over and over again. I believe it could be one of the few reasons some user predict the next peak. Anyway, if we really try to stretch back to the earlier time if the Bitcoin chart, and compare with any significant movements, somehow we could find a 'specific' pattern.

[Genemind]

We can compare the previous bull run chart with the current situation of the market but I don't think that it's accurate to consider it as a bubble. Bitcoin would never drop down to the lowest price again. It's volatile but it wouldn't drop down that much again. It's too early to predict that the market would drop down again because it's just actually trying to start blooming.

[rijaljun]

History will be repeated again and again. It's highly possible for Bitcoin to reach what have been reached in the past, and about the fall it could also happen in the future IF people learn nothing from their past. But, there is a chance to avoid big fall in the future (when Bitcoin reached new all-time high), it can be avoided with maturity. When investors become more mature to take decision, I'm pretty sure that a big fall will never happen again.

[arpon11]

First of all on previous BTC bubbles we didn't have the institutional investors and we still don't have them. But the bubble pattern on the chart is always looking the same.
Also, on the picture that you showed it seems to be a pretty young market because institutional investors are just entering in. If market survived the bubble then now when they initially have big investors the market would develop in far more safer way.

Actually the institutional investors are going to be the determine factors for the next bubble.  I seeing that some of this large investors has started to speak good about bitcoin lately and that is a sign that the few that were in the market before purposely bring the market down so that those large investors can buy at cheap price.  The market must have a pattern and those pattern is what we are seeing now happening it will keep repeating itself as far as the cryptocurrency market remain.

[dothebeats]

There had been a lot of articles that perused that similar graph/picture that comes with your OP, so it's hard to pinpoint a single article as a reference. Anyway, your assumption is pretty much supported by historic charts, just look it up over the internet and you'll see that the cycle ends up higher than the previous cycle it was in. This time, however will be harder to know whether the next ATH will be higher than the 2017 one, knowing that it will take a lot more firepower to get this rocket surpassing $20k and higher.

[Kapyong]

Gday

There had been a lot of articles that perused that similar graph/picture that comes with your OP, so it's hard to pinpoint a single article as a reference.

Yah, there are quite a few articles and blogs discussing the repeating pattern, but somehow I just can't seem to place the exact one I meant (from maybe 6 months ago ?) Like that book you vaguely remember as a child, or that dream about that ... um ... thing, and it felt really, like, um ...

Anyway, your assumption is pretty much supported by historic charts, just look it up over the internet and you'll see that the cycle ends up higher than the previous cycle it was in. This time, however will be harder to know whether the next ATH will be higher than the 2017 one, knowing that it will take a lot more firepower to get this rocket surpassing $20k and higher.

Yup:

• the overall trend is clearly up,
• we've seen several sharp peaks (or bubbles) now
• each peak is much higher than the previous
• each one leaves price much higher

But :

• always uncertain, the future is
• past behaviour does not necessarily predict future behaviour
• BTC is different and new - hard to predict
• we can't know how the whales will manipulate things
• a new peak is expected and discussed, but when everyone KNOWS what will happen, it often doesn't

So, it rather looks like another peak is coming, but predicting specifics is worth little.

[pixie85]

We are now returning to the mean which is at 6200 dollars. If we do it it will be the beginning of the real bull market. People are waiting for it and if you see it you can go all in. I'm sure that if we go to 6500 or somewhere near that we'll start a crazy exponential rise that won't stop until it goes past 20 thousand dollars. We'll have to wait until the halving for that but it will happen.

[GospelCrypto2]

In my opinion the time frame for the next bull season for virgin will be longer than the previous bull run where we saw bitcoin move from 1k dollars to 20k dollars in just one year.. Today we have more private and industry players who will take out profit at every turn.. The bull run will come but definitely not like the previous day ones because of the numerous news often circulating the internet which tend to have negative effects on prices.. Fundamental analysis in crypto to me is more pivotal to all this technical analysis u have pointed out on your thread..

[pooya87]

But each followed the same bubble pattern, just at different scales.

actually the "scale" is the same (more or less) because going from $1 to $2 is the same exact rise as going from $10,000 to $20,000. they are both 2x rise (100% rise).

I cannot seem to find it now, hoping some knowledgeable reader can recall that specific article ?
Maybe that's why some posters predict the next peak ?

you don't really need an article. simply open up a bitcoin chart website like bitcoinwisdom(.io) and analyze it yourself.
as for the future, it will be the same as long as bitcoin is still being adopted and has not yet reached mass adoption. which is going to be years from now.