Article: BTC bubbles repeat, but much higher ?

[Kapyong]

Gday all,

Some time ago, I read an interesting article that showed how each of the BTC bubbles followed a similar well-known pattern :


The point was, each BTC peak was way higher than the previous one - like orders of magnitude higher.

IIRC:
First peak went to a few cents,
2nd peak went to a few dollars,
3rd peak was quite a few dollars,
last peak was $20,000.

But each followed the same bubble pattern, just at different scales.

I cannot seem to find it now, hoping some knowledgeable reader can recall that specific article ?
Maybe that's why some posters predict the next peak ?

Kapyong

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[Beerwizzard]

First of all on previous BTC bubbles we didn't have the institutional investors and we still don't have them. But the bubble pattern on the chart is always looking the same.
Also, on the picture that you showed it seems to be a pretty young market because institutional investors are just entering in. If market survived the bubble then now when they initially have big investors the market would develop in far more safer way.

[Kapyong]

Sure,
not saying it's all a perfect fit, but it was an interesting article with some merit and I can't seem to find it anywhere now

His overall argument that each bubble went significantly higher was correct though, and if the model holds, then the next bubble will be to the MOON with lambos for all !

[odolvlobo]

Gday all,

Some time ago, I read an interesting article that showed how each of the BTC bubbles followed a similar well-known pattern :
https://blogs-images.forbes.com/jessecolombo/files/2014/02/stages_bubble.png

The point was, each BTC peak was way higher than the previous one - like orders of magnitude higher.

IIRC:
First peak went to a few cents,
2nd peak went to a few dollars,
3rd peak was quite a few dollars,
last peak was $20,000.

But each followed the same bubble pattern, just at different scales.

I cannot seem to find it now, hoping some knowledgeable reader can recall that specific article ?
Maybe that's why some posters predict the next peak ?

There are many such articles. Many people have noted that bubbles, whether in cryptocurrencies, stocks, or houses, follow a similar pattern.

However, keep in mind the circular reasoning: bubbles follow the same pattern because we use the pattern to identify them as bubbles.

[NeuroticFish]

then the next bubble will be to the MOON with lambos for all

This is why FOMO strikes, this is why so many leave disappointed when the bubble pops, that's why some end up hating Bitcoin forever: because all get lured by the mirage of a new and higher bubble.
What if no bubble will happen? What if Bitcoin will simply stay around the "Mean" area for the next years? Or what if, even worse, the ones that bought at 3000-4000$ will take advantage of the growth and will sell, triggering  a new episode of crypto winter?
I don't say bad things will happen, but please, don't be always over-optimistic. Hope for the best, but always prepare for the worse.

[Haunebu]

Sure,
not saying it's all a perfect fit, but it was an interesting article with some merit and I can't seem to find it anywhere now

His overall argument that each bubble went significantly higher was correct though, and if the model holds, then the next bubble will be to the MOON with lambos for all !

Very unrealistic in my opinion. Honestly, no one wants such bubbles and inorganic growth because BTC would continue being viewed as a pump and dump coin and exhibits extremely high volatility.

Organic growth is what we need from BTC and it will help decrease volatility overall and push adoption upwards.

[Kapyong]

My optimism is well deflated now.
I do not think there is a peak coming which is orders of magnitude higher than last time.

But it was an interesting analysis, based on facts.

Then when I went to find the article again, I couldn't, so now I'm a little annoyed at failing to find it again, and wondered if it leapt to mind for anyone.

I linked to that classic bubble graph image because that same curve was shown in the article matched to each previous BTC bubble.

Oh well, not a big issue

[Kapyong]

Very unrealistic in my opinion. Honestly, no one wants such bubbles and inorganic growth because BTC would continue being viewed as a pump and dump coin and exhibits extremely high volatility.

Organic growth is what we need from BTC and it will help decrease volatility overall and push adoption upwards.

Yup, I agree we want stable growth, not bubbles.
But considering human nature, not sure that's actually what will happen.

Meanwhile - we are about a year away from the next mining reward halving, and that has been connected to previous price rises.

Seeing that BTC spiked rapidly before, must be plenty of people hoping it happens again so they can get some of the action. I've seen a few posters here who seem convinced the next spike is huge, and soon (perhaps they read that article.)

I think FOMO is rising again, helped along with BTC news which I think has been quite positive on balance lately. All backed by that seductive dream of easy money.

Another bubble seems possible, maybe even probable ?

[Kapyong]

Hahaha ...

Just tried again to google that article - and guess what ?

THIS very thread was the first result !

Only 11 hrs old.

[Ailmand]

Just because the price of Bitcoin is going better it doesn't mean that we could consider it a bubble. There's been a roller coaster ride in crypto but that's because of its volatility. Don't panic but rather try to accumulate more. We should actually see the positive side of the rise of the market instead of doubting about it.

[okala]

Gday all,

Some time ago, I read an interesting article that showed how each of the BTC bubbles followed a similar well-known pattern :


The point was, each BTC peak was way higher than the previous one - like orders of magnitude higher.

IIRC:
First peak went to a few cents,
2nd peak went to a few dollars,
3rd peak was quite a few dollars,
last peak was $20,000.

But each followed the same bubble pattern, just at different scales.

I cannot seem to find it now, hoping some knowledgeable reader can recall that specific article ?
Maybe that's why some posters predict the next peak ?

Kapyong

Bitcoin bull run have always followed the same pattern, I will not call it a bubble because we all know what I bubble means and bitcoin should not be refer to as a bubble because when a bubble burst nothing remains but bitcoin have never dropped to zero cent before. The chart have always follow the same pattern but the only difference is the time frame. The timing for all this rise are different only pattern of movement is the same.

[vv181]

~
I cannot seem to find it now, hoping some knowledgeable reader can recall that specific article ?
Maybe that's why some posters predict the next peak ?

I'm not sure I'm aware of the article what you wanted.
Nevertheless, It just Markets psychology. Some say even if Bitcoin is a highly speculative asset, its follow the same pattern over and over again. I believe it could be one of the few reasons some user predict the next peak. Anyway, if we really try to stretch back to the earlier time if the Bitcoin chart, and compare with any significant movements, somehow we could find a 'specific' pattern.

[Genemind]

We can compare the previous bull run chart with the current situation of the market but I don't think that it's accurate to consider it as a bubble. Bitcoin would never drop down to the lowest price again. It's volatile but it wouldn't drop down that much again. It's too early to predict that the market would drop down again because it's just actually trying to start blooming.

[rijaljun]

History will be repeated again and again. It's highly possible for Bitcoin to reach what have been reached in the past, and about the fall it could also happen in the future IF people learn nothing from their past. But, there is a chance to avoid big fall in the future (when Bitcoin reached new all-time high), it can be avoided with maturity. When investors become more mature to take decision, I'm pretty sure that a big fall will never happen again.

[arpon11]

First of all on previous BTC bubbles we didn't have the institutional investors and we still don't have them. But the bubble pattern on the chart is always looking the same.
Also, on the picture that you showed it seems to be a pretty young market because institutional investors are just entering in. If market survived the bubble then now when they initially have big investors the market would develop in far more safer way.

Actually the institutional investors are going to be the determine factors for the next bubble.  I seeing that some of this large investors has started to speak good about bitcoin lately and that is a sign that the few that were in the market before purposely bring the market down so that those large investors can buy at cheap price.  The market must have a pattern and those pattern is what we are seeing now happening it will keep repeating itself as far as the cryptocurrency market remain.

[dothebeats]

There had been a lot of articles that perused that similar graph/picture that comes with your OP, so it's hard to pinpoint a single article as a reference. Anyway, your assumption is pretty much supported by historic charts, just look it up over the internet and you'll see that the cycle ends up higher than the previous cycle it was in. This time, however will be harder to know whether the next ATH will be higher than the 2017 one, knowing that it will take a lot more firepower to get this rocket surpassing $20k and higher.

[Kapyong]

Gday

There had been a lot of articles that perused that similar graph/picture that comes with your OP, so it's hard to pinpoint a single article as a reference.

Yah, there are quite a few articles and blogs discussing the repeating pattern, but somehow I just can't seem to place the exact one I meant (from maybe 6 months ago ?) Like that book you vaguely remember as a child, or that dream about that ... um ... thing, and it felt really, like, um ...

Anyway, your assumption is pretty much supported by historic charts, just look it up over the internet and you'll see that the cycle ends up higher than the previous cycle it was in. This time, however will be harder to know whether the next ATH will be higher than the 2017 one, knowing that it will take a lot more firepower to get this rocket surpassing $20k and higher.

Yup:

• the overall trend is clearly up,
• we've seen several sharp peaks (or bubbles) now
• each peak is much higher than the previous
• each one leaves price much higher

But :

• always uncertain, the future is
• past behaviour does not necessarily predict future behaviour
• BTC is different and new - hard to predict
• we can't know how the whales will manipulate things
• a new peak is expected and discussed, but when everyone KNOWS what will happen, it often doesn't

So, it rather looks like another peak is coming, but predicting specifics is worth little.

[pixie85]

We are now returning to the mean which is at 6200 dollars. If we do it it will be the beginning of the real bull market. People are waiting for it and if you see it you can go all in. I'm sure that if we go to 6500 or somewhere near that we'll start a crazy exponential rise that won't stop until it goes past 20 thousand dollars. We'll have to wait until the halving for that but it will happen.

[GospelCrypto2]

In my opinion the time frame for the next bull season for virgin will be longer than the previous bull run where we saw bitcoin move from 1k dollars to 20k dollars in just one year.. Today we have more private and industry players who will take out profit at every turn.. The bull run will come but definitely not like the previous day ones because of the numerous news often circulating the internet which tend to have negative effects on prices.. Fundamental analysis in crypto to me is more pivotal to all this technical analysis u have pointed out on your thread..

[pooya87]

But each followed the same bubble pattern, just at different scales.

actually the "scale" is the same (more or less) because going from $1 to $2 is the same exact rise as going from $10,000 to $20,000. they are both 2x rise (100% rise).

I cannot seem to find it now, hoping some knowledgeable reader can recall that specific article ?
Maybe that's why some posters predict the next peak ?

you don't really need an article. simply open up a bitcoin chart website like bitcoinwisdom(.io) and analyze it yourself.
as for the future, it will be the same as long as bitcoin is still being adopted and has not yet reached mass adoption. which is going to be years from now.

[CryptoBry]

Sure,
not saying it's all a perfect fit, but it was an interesting article with some merit and I can't seem to find it anywhere now His overall argument that each bubble went significantly higher was correct though, and if the model holds, then the next bubble will be to the MOON with lambos for all !

This can be interesting to watch if the same pattern can be able to hold in the next bull run which can be happening sooner than expected. I have actually seen this same pattern discussed on this forum before and though there are some details left by just merely looking at the chart, it can be easy to conclude that it is possible Bitcoin can go beyond the $20K level. Now, does it mean also that after touching more than $20K at its peak then winter is happening after just like in 2017-2018?

[davis196]

I think that all those btc bubbles have negative effect over mass btc adoption.It's like moving in a circle.
More btc adoption leads to a higher btc price,which leads to all the speculators and risk takers flooding the market>another bubble>the bubble bursts>mass dissapointment and people leaving the crypto space.
It all starts again.Perhaps a more stable btc price could help for mass adoption,but this won't happen.

[Kapyong]

you don't really need an article.

Didn't say I did need it.
I don't need it.

simply open up a bitcoin chart website like bitcoinwisdom(.io) and analyze it yourself.

I can ?
Really ?
Wow - thanks for filling me in with that tricky & obscure knowledge
Who would ever realise that without you letting us know !

[Falgorn]

We are now returning to the mean which is at 6200 dollars. If we do it it will be the beginning of the real bull market. People are waiting for it and if you see it you can go all in. I'm sure that if we go to 6500 or somewhere near that we'll start a crazy exponential rise that won't stop until it goes past 20 thousand dollars. We'll have to wait until the halving for that but it will happen.

It is hardly worth agreeing with you. Most likely, Bitcoin will continue to grow at a not very fast pace, and even if it overcomes the mark of $ 6500 in the near future, we will most likely not see a very sharp rise in the cryptocurrency market in the future. This year, we are unlikely to see Bitcoin growth to $ 20,000 under any circumstances. For such growth will take much more time.

[thecodebear]

Well yeah everyone who has ever paid attention to bitcoin knows that the bubbles repeat and go far higher every cycle. That's why the people who understand the market are always very excited about bitcoin. And the reason the people who don't understand the market are too afraid to get in, because they don't realize buying in at any point after a crash is gonna result in insane returns fairly quickly. With every passing cycle more and more people realize this is how bitcoin's market works, which is why the base market expands by thousands of percent every market cycle, as measured by the price at the bottom of the market - for example it went from $200 to $3000s bottom to bottom these past two cycles. Next bottom will maybe be at $30,000s lets say, because that many more people will have realized that btc bubbles repeat, but always exponentially higher.

Usually the previous ATH is the launching point for the current bull run. Because suddenly tons of people who thought bitcoin was dead a long time ago realize the price is higher than ever before, and they realize not only is bitcoin not dead, but it is flourishing. And it is this collective realization by anyone who is paying attention that then causes the exponential boom that comes towards the end of each bull market.

[Oilacris]

But each followed the same bubble pattern, just at different scales.

I cannot seem to find it now, hoping some knowledgeable reader can recall that specific article ?
Maybe that's why some posters predict the next peak ?

It may do have that kind of pattern but rest assured that no one would able to predict on whats the next peak.There might be some
technical analysis saying we would reach hundred thousands of dollars on value but those things aren't precise but somehow theres a possibility
yet we cant underestimate on how crypto prices do soar up but this time I hope it would be on gradual phase which having also a strong foundation
rather than seeing sharp spikes and dumps.

[vit05]

"pattern"

If you look to close or far away, you will always find a pattern in a chart. The quest will always be "when" it will repeat. Almost no one is using Bitcoin dayle. Everyone is expecting to profit from what they hold or from what they buy.

[shoreno]

First of all .  btc wasnt a bubble because if its a real bubble then it should pop and dissapear already    .    what actually happened before is only a bull run or a pump that lead cryptos to acheieve their ath ( all time highs )   . now on the current year we are witnessing another price hike but theres no confirmation yet if there will be another bull run that could occur this year because its still too early  

[OrangeSeller]

Gday all,

Some time ago, I read an interesting article that showed how each of the BTC bubbles followed a similar well-known pattern :


The point was, each BTC peak was way higher than the previous one - like orders of magnitude higher.

IIRC:
First peak went to a few cents,
2nd peak went to a few dollars,
3rd peak was quite a few dollars,
last peak was $20,000.

But each followed the same bubble pattern, just at different scales.

I cannot seem to find it now, hoping some knowledgeable reader can recall that specific article ?
Maybe that's why some posters predict the next peak ?

Kapyong

We are definitely going to see a bubble in the price of bitcoin starting from next year, the bubble this time is going to be very massive and we might see the price of bitcoin getting to $100,000, especially when we have begin to see the economic crisis happen in so many countries of the world, we should be happy and celebrate that we were able to have patience in the crypto market and waited for the correction to occur without giving up in the crypto market, and now we are going to see a massive bull run in price.

[pixie85]

We are now returning to the mean which is at 6200 dollars. If we do it it will be the beginning of the real bull market. People are waiting for it and if you see it you can go all in. I'm sure that if we go to 6500 or somewhere near that we'll start a crazy exponential rise that won't stop until it goes past 20 thousand dollars. We'll have to wait until the halving for that but it will happen.

It is hardly worth agreeing with you. Most likely, Bitcoin will continue to grow at a not very fast pace, and even if it overcomes the mark of $ 6500 in the near future, we will most likely not see a very sharp rise in the cryptocurrency market in the future. This year, we are unlikely to see Bitcoin growth to $ 20,000 under any circumstances. For such growth will take much more time.

Are you ready to repeat it? We went past 6500 on bitfinex. 2 days ago many people including me thought that it will be hard without a correction and here we are.
Look how much can happen in 2 days. With bitcoin almost anything is possible and I wouldn't cross out the possibility of it going to 10 thousand this year.
We are back in a bull trend for the first time since 2017 it's confirmed now.

[Kapyong]

Amazing how many persons here can predict the future !

BTC will do this,
BTC will not do that,
...

But
nearly every specific prediction made here has been WRONG.

What we CAN reasonably predict is :
* BTC will rise
* BTC will reach a new peak
* higher than before

[Vektrum]

It seems that the rush around Bitcoin is growing again and many people are beginning to be interested in it. But it was the same in 2017, when the price of Bitcoin grew along with the growth of interest in it and as a result of this, its price reached $20,000 and just as quickly began to fall, causing losses to those who bought expensively. I think it is necessary to more adequately relate to the price increase, to be careful and not to invest credit money, so as not to get into a situation in which last year there were those who bought Bitcoin for $18,000-$19,000 and sold for $5000-$6000, because they needed  at least partially give credit money.

[Adriano2010]

We can have a new ATH this year but this will take some time and maybe this is not a bull run and we can again see the price drop if someone continue sell if they buy on low.

[2chase]

I think that the next peak in Bitcoin prices cannot be determined on the basis of the previous history. The fact is that as capital is accumulated inside Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market, the processes will probably be somewhat smoothed out and we may not see the next peak price at $ 150,000 as many would like.

[Landak]

The next bubble is on 30k usd or 50k usd, I don't know for sure. but I think this price will rise until 2020, just like before.

[BitHodler]

We can have a new ATH this year but this will take some time and maybe this is not a bull run and we can again see the price drop if someone continue sell if they buy on low.

How come people don't consider the increase from $4000 to $8000 a bull run? Isn't in legacy market it so that a bull run is an "official" thing the moment prices have gone up like 20% in a certain period of time?

It seems that people have been spoiled to such degree in 2017, that only a 500-1000% increase is seen as a bull run. By the time we hit $20k people will start celebrating the start of the bull market, while the reality is that it likely came to an end.

I really hoped to see the price show a significant multi-day drop, which is what you want to see during a sustainable increase, but this run has gone beyond everything that makes sense. The pump is sweet, the dump will hurt....

[barota]

yes yes yes , i agree with you 100 percent
BTC bubbles repeat, but much higher

bitcoin can drop by 30 percent in 24 hour ... and 30 percent in other 24 hour
bitcoin will return to 3500 per btc Easily

everyone must stop buying at this fake and very very expensive prices

[figmentofmyass]

We can have a new ATH this year but this will take some time and maybe this is not a bull run and we can again see the price drop if someone continue sell if they buy on low.

How come people don't consider the increase from $4000 to $8000 a bull run? Isn't in legacy market it so that a bull run is an "official" thing the moment prices have gone up like 20% in a certain period of time?

It seems that people have been spoiled to such degree in 2017, that only a 500-1000% increase is seen as a bull run.

not just 2017 but 2011 and 2013 too. i think when a lot of people talk about bitcoin prices, they use the terms "bull run" and "bubble" interchangeably to refer to these massive historical bull cycles. we'll probably still be stuck at 2017-18 price levels for quite some time so in that context, we're sort of just ranging now even though volatility is high by legacy market standards.

By the time we hit $20k people will start celebrating the start of the bull market, while the reality is that it likely came to an end.

you really think we're gonna top out at $20k? i think if we hit that level after 2+ years of consolidation, there's no chance of double topping. we're going much higher.

[traderethereum]

We can have a new ATH this year but this will take some time and maybe this is not a bull run and we can again see the price drop if someone continue sell if they buy on low.

I guess so because bitcoin still trying to increase and I hope before the end of this year, the price can break $10k or more than $15k and it will stable in that price for a while and then after the halving, the price will increase higher.
But it will need the patience to see that price will happen because we don't know when the new ATH will happen and all we can do is gets ready and prepare to sell on that price.

[Palmaper]

In fact, all those apparent patterns that the supposed analysts have "found" in the historical behavior of bitcoin is nothing more than an attempt to force the numbers and charts in order to anticipate events, because although again and again they have failed in their forecast they know that a single success in their predictions would suffice to earn enough prestige to sell their trading signals in the future and become millionaires with it.

That is why I will always prefer to be very cautious in this type of interpretations, since this market has proven to be volatile and unpredictable enough to allow us to make decisions lightly.

[Dreamchaser21]

"pattern"

If you look to close or far away, you will always find a pattern in a chart. The quest will always be "when" it will repeat. Almost no one is using Bitcoin dayle. Everyone is expecting to profit from what they hold or from what they buy.

Its a cycle but on a different time and level since bitcoin can't just stay on the bottom. The chart is still forming and making its a big come back to the top, people are still looking for their profit but when the hype is done, expect to start people to panic again though bitcoin is still not a bubble in my opinion.

[olumyd]

We do have institutional investors, and while they may not be fully pronounced, their activities are becoming more influential in the space. Besides we got good fundamentals for Bitcoin, unlike in the past - and if one particular fundamental helped bitcoin scale to $20k, think about what multiple sets of indicators could do to the whole industry.

Bitcoin bubbles will not be consistent with historic pictures, if (and only) there's another bubbly uprising, it would take a different shape unlike the one depicted by op.

[ShowOff]

"pattern"

If you look to close or far away, you will always find a pattern in a chart. The quest will always be "when" it will repeat. Almost no one is using Bitcoin dayle. Everyone is expecting to profit from what they hold or from what they buy.

Its a cycle but on a different time and level since bitcoin can't just stay on the bottom. The chart is still forming and making its a big come back to the top, people are still looking for their profit but when the hype is done, expect to start people to panic again though bitcoin is still not a bubble in my opinion.

Panic people will always come. Both panic buy and panic sell, it is actually which affect on bitcoin price so it is increased so much. And i think it is part of pattern or circle or maybe crypto community.

[South Park]

then the next bubble will be to the MOON with lambos for all

This is why FOMO strikes, this is why so many leave disappointed when the bubble pops, that's why some end up hating Bitcoin forever: because all get lured by the mirage of a new and higher bubble.
What if no bubble will happen? What if Bitcoin will simply stay around the "Mean" area for the next years? Or what if, even worse, the ones that bought at 3000-4000$ will take advantage of the growth and will sell, triggering  a new episode of crypto winter?
I don't say bad things will happen, but please, don't be always over-optimistic. Hope for the best, but always prepare for the worse.

While I agree that people should not be as optimistic, if there is one thing bitcoin cannot really do is to remain flat forever, there are only two outcomes for bitcoin, in the first scenario bitcoin fails and eventually its price reaches zero, in the second scenario bitcoin is adopted globally and each coin is worth a fortune, and when I see what it is happening with the economies around the world and how governments are printing huge amounts of money then the most likely scenario is that bitcoin will in fact succeed, so several bubbles are bound to happen in the future.