Article: BTC bubbles repeat, but much higher ?

[CryptoBry]

Sure,
not saying it's all a perfect fit, but it was an interesting article with some merit and I can't seem to find it anywhere now His overall argument that each bubble went significantly higher was correct though, and if the model holds, then the next bubble will be to the MOON with lambos for all !

This can be interesting to watch if the same pattern can be able to hold in the next bull run which can be happening sooner than expected. I have actually seen this same pattern discussed on this forum before and though there are some details left by just merely looking at the chart, it can be easy to conclude that it is possible Bitcoin can go beyond the $20K level. Now, does it mean also that after touching more than $20K at its peak then winter is happening after just like in 2017-2018?

[davis196]

I think that all those btc bubbles have negative effect over mass btc adoption.It's like moving in a circle.
More btc adoption leads to a higher btc price,which leads to all the speculators and risk takers flooding the market>another bubble>the bubble bursts>mass dissapointment and people leaving the crypto space.
It all starts again.Perhaps a more stable btc price could help for mass adoption,but this won't happen.

[Kapyong]

you don't really need an article.

Didn't say I did need it.
I don't need it.

simply open up a bitcoin chart website like bitcoinwisdom(.io) and analyze it yourself.

I can ?
Really ?
Wow - thanks for filling me in with that tricky & obscure knowledge
Who would ever realise that without you letting us know !

[Falgorn]

We are now returning to the mean which is at 6200 dollars. If we do it it will be the beginning of the real bull market. People are waiting for it and if you see it you can go all in. I'm sure that if we go to 6500 or somewhere near that we'll start a crazy exponential rise that won't stop until it goes past 20 thousand dollars. We'll have to wait until the halving for that but it will happen.

It is hardly worth agreeing with you. Most likely, Bitcoin will continue to grow at a not very fast pace, and even if it overcomes the mark of $ 6500 in the near future, we will most likely not see a very sharp rise in the cryptocurrency market in the future. This year, we are unlikely to see Bitcoin growth to $ 20,000 under any circumstances. For such growth will take much more time.

[thecodebear]

Well yeah everyone who has ever paid attention to bitcoin knows that the bubbles repeat and go far higher every cycle. That's why the people who understand the market are always very excited about bitcoin. And the reason the people who don't understand the market are too afraid to get in, because they don't realize buying in at any point after a crash is gonna result in insane returns fairly quickly. With every passing cycle more and more people realize this is how bitcoin's market works, which is why the base market expands by thousands of percent every market cycle, as measured by the price at the bottom of the market - for example it went from $200 to $3000s bottom to bottom these past two cycles. Next bottom will maybe be at $30,000s lets say, because that many more people will have realized that btc bubbles repeat, but always exponentially higher.

Usually the previous ATH is the launching point for the current bull run. Because suddenly tons of people who thought bitcoin was dead a long time ago realize the price is higher than ever before, and they realize not only is bitcoin not dead, but it is flourishing. And it is this collective realization by anyone who is paying attention that then causes the exponential boom that comes towards the end of each bull market.

[Oilacris]

But each followed the same bubble pattern, just at different scales.

I cannot seem to find it now, hoping some knowledgeable reader can recall that specific article ?
Maybe that's why some posters predict the next peak ?

It may do have that kind of pattern but rest assured that no one would able to predict on whats the next peak.There might be some
technical analysis saying we would reach hundred thousands of dollars on value but those things aren't precise but somehow theres a possibility
yet we cant underestimate on how crypto prices do soar up but this time I hope it would be on gradual phase which having also a strong foundation
rather than seeing sharp spikes and dumps.

[vit05]

"pattern"

If you look to close or far away, you will always find a pattern in a chart. The quest will always be "when" it will repeat. Almost no one is using Bitcoin dayle. Everyone is expecting to profit from what they hold or from what they buy.

[shoreno]

First of all .  btc wasnt a bubble because if its a real bubble then it should pop and dissapear already    .    what actually happened before is only a bull run or a pump that lead cryptos to acheieve their ath ( all time highs )   . now on the current year we are witnessing another price hike but theres no confirmation yet if there will be another bull run that could occur this year because its still too early  

[OrangeSeller]

Gday all,

Some time ago, I read an interesting article that showed how each of the BTC bubbles followed a similar well-known pattern :


The point was, each BTC peak was way higher than the previous one - like orders of magnitude higher.

IIRC:
First peak went to a few cents,
2nd peak went to a few dollars,
3rd peak was quite a few dollars,
last peak was $20,000.

But each followed the same bubble pattern, just at different scales.

I cannot seem to find it now, hoping some knowledgeable reader can recall that specific article ?
Maybe that's why some posters predict the next peak ?

Kapyong

We are definitely going to see a bubble in the price of bitcoin starting from next year, the bubble this time is going to be very massive and we might see the price of bitcoin getting to $100,000, especially when we have begin to see the economic crisis happen in so many countries of the world, we should be happy and celebrate that we were able to have patience in the crypto market and waited for the correction to occur without giving up in the crypto market, and now we are going to see a massive bull run in price.

[pixie85]

We are now returning to the mean which is at 6200 dollars. If we do it it will be the beginning of the real bull market. People are waiting for it and if you see it you can go all in. I'm sure that if we go to 6500 or somewhere near that we'll start a crazy exponential rise that won't stop until it goes past 20 thousand dollars. We'll have to wait until the halving for that but it will happen.

It is hardly worth agreeing with you. Most likely, Bitcoin will continue to grow at a not very fast pace, and even if it overcomes the mark of $ 6500 in the near future, we will most likely not see a very sharp rise in the cryptocurrency market in the future. This year, we are unlikely to see Bitcoin growth to $ 20,000 under any circumstances. For such growth will take much more time.

Are you ready to repeat it? We went past 6500 on bitfinex. 2 days ago many people including me thought that it will be hard without a correction and here we are.
Look how much can happen in 2 days. With bitcoin almost anything is possible and I wouldn't cross out the possibility of it going to 10 thousand this year.
We are back in a bull trend for the first time since 2017 it's confirmed now.

[Kapyong]

Amazing how many persons here can predict the future !

BTC will do this,
BTC will not do that,
...

But
nearly every specific prediction made here has been WRONG.

What we CAN reasonably predict is :
* BTC will rise
* BTC will reach a new peak
* higher than before

[Vektrum]

It seems that the rush around Bitcoin is growing again and many people are beginning to be interested in it. But it was the same in 2017, when the price of Bitcoin grew along with the growth of interest in it and as a result of this, its price reached $20,000 and just as quickly began to fall, causing losses to those who bought expensively. I think it is necessary to more adequately relate to the price increase, to be careful and not to invest credit money, so as not to get into a situation in which last year there were those who bought Bitcoin for $18,000-$19,000 and sold for $5000-$6000, because they needed  at least partially give credit money.

[Adriano2010]

We can have a new ATH this year but this will take some time and maybe this is not a bull run and we can again see the price drop if someone continue sell if they buy on low.

[2chase]

I think that the next peak in Bitcoin prices cannot be determined on the basis of the previous history. The fact is that as capital is accumulated inside Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market, the processes will probably be somewhat smoothed out and we may not see the next peak price at $ 150,000 as many would like.

[Landak]

The next bubble is on 30k usd or 50k usd, I don't know for sure. but I think this price will rise until 2020, just like before.

[BitHodler]

We can have a new ATH this year but this will take some time and maybe this is not a bull run and we can again see the price drop if someone continue sell if they buy on low.

How come people don't consider the increase from $4000 to $8000 a bull run? Isn't in legacy market it so that a bull run is an "official" thing the moment prices have gone up like 20% in a certain period of time?

It seems that people have been spoiled to such degree in 2017, that only a 500-1000% increase is seen as a bull run. By the time we hit $20k people will start celebrating the start of the bull market, while the reality is that it likely came to an end.

I really hoped to see the price show a significant multi-day drop, which is what you want to see during a sustainable increase, but this run has gone beyond everything that makes sense. The pump is sweet, the dump will hurt....

[barota]

yes yes yes , i agree with you 100 percent
BTC bubbles repeat, but much higher

bitcoin can drop by 30 percent in 24 hour ... and 30 percent in other 24 hour
bitcoin will return to 3500 per btc Easily

everyone must stop buying at this fake and very very expensive prices

[figmentofmyass]

We can have a new ATH this year but this will take some time and maybe this is not a bull run and we can again see the price drop if someone continue sell if they buy on low.

How come people don't consider the increase from $4000 to $8000 a bull run? Isn't in legacy market it so that a bull run is an "official" thing the moment prices have gone up like 20% in a certain period of time?

It seems that people have been spoiled to such degree in 2017, that only a 500-1000% increase is seen as a bull run.

not just 2017 but 2011 and 2013 too. i think when a lot of people talk about bitcoin prices, they use the terms "bull run" and "bubble" interchangeably to refer to these massive historical bull cycles. we'll probably still be stuck at 2017-18 price levels for quite some time so in that context, we're sort of just ranging now even though volatility is high by legacy market standards.

By the time we hit $20k people will start celebrating the start of the bull market, while the reality is that it likely came to an end.

you really think we're gonna top out at $20k? i think if we hit that level after 2+ years of consolidation, there's no chance of double topping. we're going much higher.

[traderethereum]

We can have a new ATH this year but this will take some time and maybe this is not a bull run and we can again see the price drop if someone continue sell if they buy on low.

I guess so because bitcoin still trying to increase and I hope before the end of this year, the price can break $10k or more than $15k and it will stable in that price for a while and then after the halving, the price will increase higher.
But it will need the patience to see that price will happen because we don't know when the new ATH will happen and all we can do is gets ready and prepare to sell on that price.

[Palmaper]

In fact, all those apparent patterns that the supposed analysts have "found" in the historical behavior of bitcoin is nothing more than an attempt to force the numbers and charts in order to anticipate events, because although again and again they have failed in their forecast they know that a single success in their predictions would suffice to earn enough prestige to sell their trading signals in the future and become millionaires with it.

That is why I will always prefer to be very cautious in this type of interpretations, since this market has proven to be volatile and unpredictable enough to allow us to make decisions lightly.