What will be the next bubble's hook?

[gentlemand]

What do you think will be the thing that captures the imagination of the average lemming?

Last time around it was ICOs. Now they're toast.

Will it be as simple as greater legitimacy in the form of big operations green lighting crypto trading?

Will there be a new form of ICO piss taking? Many will say the collective has learnt its lesson. We all know that's utter bollocks.

What is your supposition? Does it need one at all?

[figmentofmyass]

What is your supposition? Does it need one at all?

it doesn't. we just need hype. the inflow of capital will be distributed across whatever listings the market has to offer. fundamentals don't matter for shit during strong bull markets. whatever the catalyst is, it's price charts that creates the bullish feedback loop where hype begets hype.

that's why i wouldn't frame 2017 like ICOs were the driver. i don't think they were per se. i think there was very weak supply and excess demand heading into 2017 and the first winklevoss ETF denial triggered a move into alts. there are always such triggers. in every bubble, there is a symbiotic relationship akin to sector rotation in stocks where money flows back and forth between BTC and alts instead of BTC and fiat. ICO upon ICO was launched to suck up that capital, but if not ICOs, we would have seen all that capital flow into other altcoins instead.

[BitHodler]

Will there be a new form of ICO piss taking? Many will say the collective has learnt its lesson. We all know that's utter bollocks.

I have seen mostly Bitcoiners say the ICO thingy is done and over, but it isn't. As we speak there are still ICOs being initiated, but they just don't get much attention with how dumb money needs to see 500-1000% before they wake up.

Just wait for it, when the worst possible shit coins show these mad gains one after the other and that for months straight, people will be jumping in with their life savings. It's only a matter of time.

IEOs could have taken off massively if it wasn't so difficult to get in and people saw the price tank instantly. Binance knows how to take care of the marketing aspect, but they could have done a much better job with IEOs.

[sheenshane]

Having an ICO is not necessary. We just need to influence new people to get involved with our vision without forcing them.

However, I still see some ICOs in our space and I can also tell that they are more developed compared to the past ICOs.

The only opportunity the past ICOs had is the law. If you have the least knowledge then that is the time you will definitely go down.

I heard about an ICO which is claiming that they are the first ICO that is accepted by the SEC.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

I think that bitcoin will be pumped to 100 000$ without any hook and after that it will be released for masses.

It will be STO (Security Token Offering) or "AI coins".
STO - tokens that are not "utility tokens" as others but securities. Owning them makes you "shareholder". You will get weekly/monthly/annually rewards which will be equal to part of company incomes and it will be guarantee due to smart contract... This will be huge.

Ai coins - I think that IA based companies will be next bubble (not only in crypto). It will be as huge as .com bubble. As crypto market is very often compared to start-up market lots of investors will come here to invest in IA start-up seeing how US stocks based on IA are being pumped. And this bubble will be huge since AI (or rather ML - we may never see true AI) is a groundbreaking technology and its impact on the profits of companies is almost impossible to etimate (thous every new price level will be accepted).

[1Referee]

If there will be another bubble, it's very likely one that's based on institutional capital that will enter the market through one of the many legacy gateways. If we manage to keep the current momentum, Fidelity publicly announces its services are live, Bakkt being approved, there you have the fuel needed to spark a bull run similar to what we saw in 2017.

It would be an interesting development if what we see right now are institutions participating in insider trading knowing that an ETF is due to be approved. This isn't just a regular increase, especially not if we keep rushing further towards $10,000 which isn't out of the question. This pump is mainly Bitcoin and not just the average retail fomo we used to see.

Grayscale's Bitcoin holdings now total ~$1.5 billion. An ETF should be able to suck up twice as much in actual spot supply worth.

[talkbitcoin]

what is ICO?
is it anything apart from a big bet that people made on an illusion that has a hyped up topic (blockchain) in its name?

with that simple definition change, you can see how they are not new at all. the same trend has been going on for a long time, people come in and see a lot of advertised altcoins telling them they are the future so they invest their money in them hoping to become millionaires.
whatever effects they have on bitcoin price will remain the same as long as people don't change.

the name keeps changing and their methods become easier, before they had to actually create a standalone blockchain but now they have platforms that do that for them with ICOs.

[Viscore]

Probably this time around it's still crowd funding but in the form of IEO.

This time also, the selling pressure is not big because we are coming from a long bearish market, so with the hype, market can rise better compared to 2017.
We will have to see what will happen next, will bitcoin fall back a bit or it will continue?

I don't want to get hype a lot here, I just want to see the average price uptrend considering the possible fall back, so I'm expecting price will end better this year.

[Vaskiy]

Probably this time around it's still crowd funding but in the form of IEO.

This time also, the selling pressure is not big because we are coming from a long bearish market, so with the hype, market can rise better compared to 2017.
We will have to see what will happen next, will bitcoin fall back a bit or it will continue?

I don't want to get hype a lot here, I just want to see the average price uptrend considering the possible fall back, so I'm expecting price will end better this year.

There is big growth to end the year as predicted. With the last bull run of 2017 more price increase happened with most of the ICO that existed during those time period. Somewhere of legitimate growth and rest seems to be followed by the growth of bitcoin. This time there isn't any such kind of hype or expectation with the market.

[Lawrenzoo]

Having an ICO is not necessary. We just need to influence new people to get involved with our vision without forcing them.

However, I still see some ICOs in our space and I can also tell that they are more developed compared to the past ICOs.

The only opportunity the past ICOs had is the law. If you have the least knowledge then that is the time you will definitely go down.

I heard about an ICO which is claiming that they are the first ICO that is accepted by the SEC.

So how do you and I intend to get new people to share in the crypto vision without first using ICO to encourage them?, because anyone you see that wants to engage themselves in cryptocurrency, wants profit out of it and they don’t care about the usage.

It is not so easy to ordinarily tell people about crypto and win them to the industry, they need more than awareness, they need regulations and government backing before they can even think of considering it, that is why we still need ICOs before we get to the stage of regulation. For SEC producing ICO, I guess it must be scam, the only project I have seen through sec now is STO.

[talkbitcoin]

So how do you and I intend to get new people to share in the crypto vision without first using ICO to encourage them?, because anyone you see that wants to engage themselves in cryptocurrency, wants profit out of it and they don’t care about the usage.

but ICOs don't even have anything to do with cryptocurrencies or even "crypto vision" or whatever you want to call it. ICO is a trick for fundraising for a "company" (basically some people in their basement) that most of the times don't even have anything to do with cryptocurrencies not to mention that coin (or C in ICO) are not actual cryptocurrencies they are tokens that have no usages.

[El duderino_]

User count keeps increasing------> price will follow

All the rest of noises will pump and dump the price at given times...

[Harlot]

With countries following up hard on their legal framework for their crypto regulation I suspect that some of this countries have the idea of creating their own government-based cryptocurrencies like what Venezuela did. I know that countries that are having extreme prohibitions on cryptocurrencies like China and India have hinted in the past on issuing their own local based cryptocurrency based on their fiat which I think will be a bad turn for them considering what had happen to Venezuela in the past.

[exstasie]

The launch of institutional markets from Fidelity, Bakkt, and others might add some hype to the market. When the atmosphere is bullish enough, I'm sure altcoins and ICOs will have a grand resurgence as well.

I don't think any of the bubbles needed a "hook" really. It's just hype meeting very limited supply. Investors always find something to pump their money into, whether it's BTC, altcoins, ICO tokens, cloud mining, other securities. Most of that money will enter through the Bitcoin market. Just like 2013 and 2017, everything will pump together.

[carter34]

The only opportunity the past ICOs had is the law.

Opportunity and the law, how? I didn't understand this.
The opportunity to keep staying in the market and not being booted out as a result of so much fake project advitising and scamming innocent people off their money?

The law, how? They never were protected by any rules nor were people's stolen money returned by litigation.

[BrewMaster]

adoption! like it always is.
more users, then more price rise then that big price rise creates a lot of hype that everywhere in the media they talk about bitcoin so it attracts even more users and maker being small the price shoots up and enteres a big bubble.

Last time around it was ICOs. Now they're toast.

but almost all of the ICOs required ETH to participate in them not bitcoin so how could they be the reason for the bubble?

[thecodebear]

The launch of institutional markets from Fidelity, Bakkt, and others might add some hype to the market. When the atmosphere is bullish enough, I'm sure altcoins and ICOs will have a grand resurgence as well.

I don't think any of the bubbles needed a "hook" really. It's just hype meeting very limited supply. Investors always find something to pump their money into, whether it's BTC, altcoins, ICO tokens, cloud mining, other securities. Most of that money will enter through the Bitcoin market. Just like 2013 and 2017, everything will pump together.

Agreed.
Just because ICOs became a big deal in 2017 doesn't mean bull runs need a "hook" to bring people in.

This bull market will be fueled by (as always) people realizing that bitcoin didn't just disappear when they were all told it would all throughout the bear market for over a year. Add to that, as exstasie said, institutional markets finally starting to get in on the game will bring in HUGE amounts of money, players like Bitcoin has never seen before. Maybe add to that the fact that people start seeing banks and tech companies bring out their own cryptocurrencies, giving even more legitimacy to Bitcoin. As well as companies continuing to build out blockchain enterprise solutions, legitimizing blockchain tech in general. Maybe throw in a little bit of the Lightning Network perhaps getting close to being ready to be used by the general population. And of course the halving as always.

[WinslowIII]

What do you think will be the thing that captures the imagination of the average lemming?

Last time around it was ICOs. Now they're toast.

Will it be as simple as greater legitimacy in the form of big operations green lighting crypto trading?

Will there be a new form of ICO piss taking? Many will say the collective has learnt its lesson. We all know that's utter bollocks.

What is your supposition? Does it need one at all?

I think it must be the escape of the oncoming fiat crisis. The world cannot simply continue to add trillions of dollars in new fiat a year and sticking it into debt that will never be repaid. Also, the stock market is giong to crash. When faced with the alternatives, the track record of crypto, bitcoin in particular looks like a damn good hedge.
I don't know what else the catalyst will be other than real world adoption for real world reasons, I don't think anyone needs to come up with a gimmick like icos do you? The world in general and the US economy in particular are FUCKED.
After all, this is why bitcoin was created in the first place now, wasn't it? It rose from the fallout of the 2008 crisis and beginning of quantitative easing, the biggest scam the earth has seen yet.

[exstasie]

I think it must be the escape of the oncoming fiat crisis. The world cannot simply continue to add trillions of dollars in new fiat a year and sticking it into debt that will never be repaid. Also, the stock market is giong to crash. When faced with the alternatives, the track record of crypto, bitcoin in particular looks like a damn good hedge.

The track record of crypto is being in a bull market when stocks are in a bull market. That's been the context during all of Bitcoin's price history. I'd hate to see what happens to speculative assets like Bitcoin when everything is crashing. Fortunately, I'm pretty confident the stock market isn't going to crash anytime soon after this year's huge V-bottom. On that subject, I agree with this guy and I think he's right that a continued bull market in stocks will benefit Bitcoin: https://twitter.com/coinjunky/status/1120711897475702786

The global economy will eventually turn south but as usual, people are expecting too much too soon. The next Bitcoin bubble is going to happen before (probably long before) the next major economic downturn sets in. That V-bottom in stocks just bought us a couple years.

[Heisenberg_Hunter]

What do you think will be the thing that captures the imagination of the average lemming?

Last time around it was ICOs. Now they're toast.

ICO's were one among the many reasons for the newbie investors to jump in the bubble right back in 2017. There was huge FOMO situation prevailing all over the market and in the minds of the newbies. The problem is that, they are not accumulating over a longer time period but rather are trying to accumulate when the prices are too high. The minds of the investors were always the key factor in driving the price to the top when there are really no good news favoring the adoption of btc even more. Long-term investors will never invest huge sum in a period of FOMO but rather wait for the prices to settle a bit.

Right now, an average newbie investor who left the market last year would come back and will start investing in btc considering this would be a period of FOMO. This should probably be the main factor which will capture "the imagination of the average lemming" as you have mentioned.

Will there be a new form of ICO piss taking?

The fact is that, most of the investors are fed up with the ICO scams and runaways which took place last year. This situation would never allow new investors/old investors to invest in ICOs. Many lost $1000 in crypto scams and those un-interesting ERC20 ICOs which wouldn't serve real purpose at all.