Bitcoin Halving: Hype to Speculate?

[CryptoBry]

Next year, there will the scheduled halving of Bitcoin. For people who are still new, the term can be a little dizzy. To make it clearer:

In case you are wondering, this means that the number of Bitcoin issued per each block, mined every ten minutes, will fall from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. In other words, this reduction of 50% will cut the block reward given to miners in half and further slow the production of Bitcoin’s finite supply. Source.

So this has something to do with the supply. The rewards available for miners is effectively reduced into half...or 50% less. This can slow down the production of more bitcoin coming from the side of the miners.

And this is the reason why some analysts are predicting that after and even before the scheduled halving, bitcoin can experience a great surge or a real bull run. Do you see this as a big probability or just another hype?

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[mk4]

I'm personally not expecting a "great surge", but more of a gradual increase in price. Less bitcoin being minted means less bitcoins that could potentially be sold by the miners. Unless people heavily FOMO due to this fact, I don't think we would immediately feel the effect.

[Beerwizzard]

For me it is something like a hype attempt that have some reasonable background.
The problem is that we don't know how much money miners are dumping. Considering that they are immediately selling all their revenue on exchanges it would definetely make an influence on the price. But I'm sure that most part of their coins are remain somewhere in miner's stash.

[Nalbo]

We've seen a 3 months boost in price on every halving of bitcoin and it would be similar this time. But the boost would be much smaller as larger number of people would speculate the same. As price are just supply and demand, we could see much more turbulent price of bitcoin before and after the halving. This would also decrease the income from mining which if not compensated by high price would be made by miners going out of business.

[pawanjain]

Who says the reason can't be both ? The speculation is because bitcoin has been in downtrend for a long time and now that it is gaining traction people want to boost it's price.
May be these people are those who didn't sell at the right time before the bitcoin bubble burst and the price went down.
The hype is because BTC has been pumping prior to every halving and since it has been in downtrend for a long time. People are using this news to hype the market.
Well it might be both the reasons but one thing is for sure that BTC will certainly gain a little momentum and will increase in price.

[KonstantinosM]

I think it will have an effect in price. The dollar has lost ridiculous amount of value over time because of inflation. On Bitcoin we are on a fixed schedule.

There's a good thread about that here on BT: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130619.0

Monetary inflation will drop to around 2% from around 4%.

It's the point where we'll be finally inflating at a lower rate then the dollar.

I think the effect on price will mostly be psychological. The value of something is not an inherent property of that object but what people are willing to value it as.

That being said, I feel like it's a huge milestone.

[jakelyson]

And this is the reason why some analysts are predicting that after and even before the scheduled halving, bitcoin can experience a great surge or a real bull run. Do you see this as a big probability or just another hype?

If we base it on previous halvings, then we can say that it is a probability. The price increased more after the halving. It is logical because the supply will be lower and thus the price will move up. Though it is also being used to hype the price of bitcoin.

[Artemis3]

Next year, there will the scheduled halving of Bitcoin. For people who are still new, the term can be a little dizzy. To make it clearer:

In case you are wondering, this means that the number of Bitcoin issued per each block, mined every ten minutes, will fall from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. In other words, this reduction of 50% will cut the block reward given to miners in half and further slow the production of Bitcoin’s finite supply.

So this has something to do with the supply. The rewards available for miners is effectively reduced into half...or 50% less. This can slow down the production of more bitcoin coming from the side of the miners.

And this is the reason why some analysts are predicting that after and even before the scheduled halving, bitcoin can experience a great surge or a real bull run. Do you see this as a big probability or just another hype?

If history repeats, i think so. But then the price will correct back to where it should have been. Of course, with each passing halving, these "bullruns" will become weaker and weaker, and eventually people won't bother anymore.

This is all part of the design, bitcoin supply production rate is scheduled to slow down by half every 4 years. Do not expect mining to remain as profitable, even with technology advances, and the occasional bitcoin price going up. It is bound to become less and less profitable, until nobody paying electricity can't ever recover costs anymore. The last miners will be those with access to free electricity, who want to run their miners more like a hobby or because it benefits their business somehow. On a long term, i expect the difficulty to go down as the large players quit entirely.

Those giant mining operations are doomed to close, i just can't tell if this would take 5 or 20 years more.

[Slow death]

look what happened in the past that you can easily see that the price has increased a lot. if there is something that the world crypto loves are news like these: halving, hard forks and partnerships with big companies for the price to go to the moon, even if most of the time it is just pump and dump, but the price always increases a lot in most when the subject is related to halving or major partnerships

[okala]

We are leaving in a speculative era and bitcoin and it activities have always been an object of speculations but even at that it one can not expect too much from the 2020 halving. Things can go whatever ways either positive or negative.

[livingfree]

It is not just a hype but if you will base all of those past events after the halving, the price surged. It's expected that the price might move positively because of this.

You can judge base on the past charts and see the changes prior to the halving. We might see a different outcome by 2020-2021 but I'm very optimistic that we will positive changes.

[uneng]

Maybe the currently fluctuations in btc price are already a pre-halving effect. Specialists say it's predictable that the currency starts boosting its price one year before the great event, what can mean a big rise in bitcoin price until there.
I don't know if it's a hype or fomo: it could be a hype, because it has already became a tradition, since it happens on every halvings, and it could be fomo, as it's a very predictable scenario and nobody wants to lose the chance to earn some profit with bitcoin bull run.

[hatshepsut93]

When everyone is expecting that the price will skyrocket at certain date, chances are it will skyrocket long before it, because no one wants to miss out on it. The most recent rise from $4,000 to $8,000 might even be attributed to the halvening expectations - as soon as it started looking like we have passed the bottom, the FOMO kicked in and people started quickly accumulating.

[rdbase]

Same thing is happening to litecoin later this year and people are buying right now hence the price surge since the beginning of the year. It used to be $68 now is nearly $90 in just about four months since the halving was announce to the mass publlic ~ atleast this is when I first heard about it while searching about other cryptocurrency news.
So when the date of the bitcoin halving approaches expect people to start buying bitcoin if cheap at the time and the price to surge as well.

[r1s2g3]

There is no perfect formula derived for market up and down  so we will be never going to find that how much effect reward halving is going to do. so keep speculating.

[tiem100]

I think it will affect the price, why? Cuz we talk about it and entire internet is talking about it and everyone will invest their money few months before it happens, I know I will. That's how market works. It's all up to us and if we believe in that bull trend.

[Ailmand]

I believe it's possible because that already happened before so I guess history could repeat itself. The halving could be the reason of a big hype but I'm not expecting too much from it. It will surely make the prices better but I don't think it could reach the expectation of others.

[rdluffy]

If people believe that the halving will increase price...this is going to happen
They will try to buy before the halving and the the price will rise

[Pamadar]

There is no perfect formula derived for market up and down  so we will be never going to find that how much effect reward halving is going to do. so keep speculating.

I agree with you, there's no exact directions that will pointed this halving to bring surge to current valuation, everything still depends to it's speculative guess, if halving will be a good turning factors then so be it, let the next coming year brings the results, let's all expect and be optimistic ahead.

[Genemind]

The future depends on how we believe things will happen. As for me, crypto would surely strike high if it's already implanted in the minds of most traders and investors. No technical analysis or speculation could change the situation but it all depends on how we believe in the future of the market. The hype would continue if we'll all be optimistic towards the volatility of bitcoin.

[Thirdspace]

And this is the reason why some analysts are predicting that after and even before the scheduled halving, bitcoin can experience a great surge or a real bull run. Do you see this as a big probability or just another hype?

imo it's closer to probability than just hype,
we have experienced this twice before, on 2012-11-28 #210000 and 2016-07-09 #420000
on both case we can see gradual increase price of bitcoin before the halving and a surge in price after the halving

So this has something to do with the supply. The rewards available for miners is effectively reduced into half...or 50% less. This can slow down the production of more bitcoin coming from the side of the miners.

less rewards available for miners will effectively create a new price equilibrium
miners will not sell their coins for anything less than their production costs
and as miners and users are trying to find the new equilibrium, bitcoin price would be somewhat affected by hype

[xvids]

Most of us are expecting this halving to be the reason of the next ATH,
And I think it could be true since most of us would take this opportunity to get some of this new alt-coin.
Everytime we experience this Bitcoin halving the price always surge high so I am really expecting to see a new ATH because of it.

[talkbitcoin]

I'm personally not expecting a "great surge", but more of a gradual increase in price.

quite the contrary, i expect a much bigger "surge" near the halving event. the gradual rises are going to occur until then. my reason is that we already had two halvings each big and the second bigger than the first. each time people might have not expected the rise but this time they will be sure there is a rise and because of it, they will FOMO buy and that alone will push the price up a lot.

[sushil7045]

if we see history of bitcoin, it has always preformed well after halving. last both halving we have seen bull run approx 1 year after halving. if history repeats itself we will see huge gains.
i have done my own calculations and i predict bitcoin new All time high of $106,000 between may 2021 to aug 2022.
invest at ur own risk

[piebeyb]

I think it's just speculation, everyone is free to speculate about the price of bitcoin in the future, once again I say also that not everyone knows what the right value was at that time, so I also included speculating bitcoin prices here

[traderethereum]

Most of us are expecting this halving to be the reason of the next ATH,
And I think it could be true since most of us would take this opportunity to get some of this new alt-coin.
Everytime we experience this Bitcoin halving the price always surge high so I am really expecting to see a new ATH because of it.

We want to see bitcoin price to reach another highest price again like what we saw in the last year.
Most of us want to make a bigger profit again so they are still buying bitcoin at any price and they don't mind to hold for a while and some of them still doing trading to increase the bitcoin amount in their wallet.
There will be speculation related to the halving, and we already saw it before.
There are so many calculations on how much bitcoin price will increase before and after the halving happen.

[danherbias07]

Could be.
Miners need their profit to pay for everything.
If profit is not greater than paying bills and other stuff then they might consider to just stop the business.
Which could lead to a slower transaction for all of us.

Who will mine those coins and who will confirm our transactions. Better get them paid well..

[kryptqnick]

I'm personally not expecting a "great surge", but more of a gradual increase in price. Less bitcoin being minted means less bitcoins that could potentially be sold by the miners. Unless people heavily FOMO due to this fact, I don't think we would immediately feel the effect.

I think FOMO can easily be the case when the time comes. People are expecting that the prices will grow after halving because history has shown it happening before. Reduced rewards are not directly leading to the price going up, of course, but the hype around the event, as well as the need of the price to 'catch up', so that mining stays profitable, can drive the price upwards. I hope you are right, however, and we'll be some gradual change rather than a bull run because it is healthier for the market and reduces the risk of significant price corrections or panic selling events.

[Adriano2010]

I really wait for halving to come because i think before or after a bull run will come and i believe that bitcoin can reach a new ATH and most holder will get a good profit if they sell, but until then is time to accumulate.

[Kiefner]

I don't think that's gonna cause a big splash. It just seems to me that the price will gradually increase over time, because the number of bitcoins will become less and less. Now is a very good time to accumulate assets.

[w0lf0.]

Good time to accumulate and waiting to next bull run, i hope in new records and the final explosion of cryptos.

[maxreish]

And this is the reason why some analysts are predicting that after and even before the scheduled halving, bitcoin can experience a great surge or a real bull run. Do you see this as a big probability or just another hype?

Many investors are really waiting for this big event next year. There is a big possibility for the price increased of bitcoin when the halving will occur in May 2020.

As you can see from the previous halving. The btc's price is really affected.


Image source


This just showed how the market reacts from the halving event. Also, this just means that the supply of bitcoin is will slow down. Thus, making it to pump really high.

[Herbert2020]

...

that chart is good but it is not showing the true trends because of the halving mainly because the 2017 rise is dwarfing all the previous rises and with the type of zoom this chart has and its low quality it is not possible to see the real thing that happened at those times.
for example if you zoom in the 2012 halving you can see that there was a very big rally at the time due to halving. and the 2013 big rise may not have had much to do with halving both because we already had the rise and also because it is far away from the halving itself. same with 2016 halving and 2017 big rise.

[olamidey]

This will be a major boost to bitcoin of the halving eventually happens. Of course, there will be price increase for BTC and other major coins would benefit for it. So looking forward to that great experience. That would mean the resurface of the bull

[maldini]

Next year, there will the scheduled halving of Bitcoin. For people who are still new, the term can be a little dizzy. To make it clearer:

In case you are wondering, this means that the number of Bitcoin issued per each block, mined every ten minutes, will fall from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. In other words, this reduction of 50% will cut the block reward given to miners in half and further slow the production of Bitcoin’s finite supply. Source.

So this has something to do with the supply. The rewards available for miners is effectively reduced into half...or 50% less. This can slow down the production of more bitcoin coming from the side of the miners.

And this is the reason why some analysts are predicting that after and even before the scheduled halving, bitcoin can experience a great surge or a real bull run. Do you see this as a big probability or just another hype?

It seems that people are speculating more about bitcoin prices before experiencing bitcoin halving or after. When reducing the mined block, of course there will be many miners who go bankrupt and on the other hand the number of requests will be higher, this will cause the price of bitcoin to soar.

[ethereumhunter]

This will be a major boost to bitcoin of the halving eventually happens. Of course, there will be price increase for BTC and other major coins would benefit for it. So looking forward to that great experience. That would mean the resurface of the bull

That will be happening in the next year. Maybe we will see the next highest price of bitcoin in the next halving that will happen before or after the halving. But for how much bitcoin price, we still don't know and let the market will decide. Our job is making more bitcoin in many ways, and trading will be a good way to earn more bitcoin

[Aldrinx00]

I think it's more of a normal process to accumulate because of the halving the price will gradually increase overtime, well there's always some hype to it that people tend to take advantage but i think people nowadays are more intelligent and know more about the technology behind bitcoin is amazing.

[Ayiranorea]

Everytime halving used to make a big change in the market of bitcoin, following the growth of bitcoin surely can expect good growth with altcoins. Bitcoin halving isn't a hype to speculate, because earlier during the time halving we've experienced good growth with bitcoin. Speculation about the market is common, and based on the bull market close to the days of halving we'll experience bigger and bigger price higher than the previous ath.

[LeGaulois]

...

that chart is good but it is not showing the true trends because of the halving mainly because the 2017 rise is dwarfing all the previous rises and with the type of zoom this chart has and its low quality it is not possible to see the real thing that happened at those times.
for example if you zoom in the 2012 halving you can see that there was a very big rally at the time due to halving. and the 2013 big rise may not have had much to do with halving both because we already had the rise and also because it is far away from the halving itself. same with 2016 halving and 2017 big rise.

So true. Also, people speculate on halving for a new ATH. Considering the memorable crash we got back 2017-2018, what about if Bitcoin, effectively goes up, as people speculate (including me), but no more than $15,000? Because this is also reasonable speculation and a possible situation. Why not?

Recently people started to quote the $100,000 price, I thought they were joking firstly, secondly they were just repeating, but finally, figured they really think about it. I wish they will be right but honestly, I doubt it's going to happen.

[freedomgo]

This could be hype, but it's good for the market since we are in a bullish trend now, and people expecting the price to increase more, we might not see a long bear period again. The last time there was a halving, there was a price increase and it's normal for people to think an increase as they based on the history.

[Herbert2020]

...

that chart is good but it is not showing the true trends because of the halving mainly because the 2017 rise is dwarfing all the previous rises and with the type of zoom this chart has and its low quality it is not possible to see the real thing that happened at those times.
for example if you zoom in the 2012 halving you can see that there was a very big rally at the time due to halving. and the 2013 big rise may not have had much to do with halving both because we already had the rise and also because it is far away from the halving itself. same with 2016 halving and 2017 big rise.

So true. Also, people speculate on halving for a new ATH. Considering the memorable crash we got back 2017-2018, what about if Bitcoin, effectively goes up, as people speculate (including me), but no more than $15,000? Because this is also reasonable speculation and a possible situation. Why not?

Recently people started to quote the $100,000 price, I thought they were joking firstly, secondly they were just repeating, but finally, figured they really think about it. I wish they will be right but honestly, I doubt it's going to happen.

i don't see why $100k couldn't happen., considering the  way bubbles have been in the past and also the way money sometimes flows in the market like crazy, it is not that unlikely to see a price like $100k.
in the end it all comes down to supply and demand. bitcoin has a scarce supply and the adoption so far has been minuscule (less than 1% of the world) and it has not stopped or slowed down, instead it has only been speeding up so if that 1% grows to 5% we should see a price much higher than $100k. it may not happen this fast (2020) but it is not an unlikely target.

[millgates]

It seems that people are very enthusiast about bitcoin halving. But usually the price will rise before it happen, and then the price will fall 1-2 day before halving happen. So ithis case there are two point that we should undestrand. The first point is the bitcoin halving itself will increase bitcoin price to certain level, and the second point is the hype will make bitcoin price increase higher and make bitcoin price fall when the hype is decrease. So basically bitcoin price will tend to rise because bitcoin halving. That is because supply and demand law.

[Wingo]

The halving will have a great impact over the production of new Bitcoins that will lead to its demand increasing faster than the upward movement of the supply. There will surely be a surge in price as we approach the date of the halving, assuming that the number of bitcoin users is constant.

But there are also negative effects which will definitely happen to the speed of the transactions. Because mining is becoming less profitable, more bitcoin miners will shift to mining other digital currencies. Then the processing of new blocks will slow down. This is one problem with the PoW protocol. If there are only ways to make several improvements on this protocol to make the bitcoin blockchain more scalable.

[LeGaulois]

...

that chart is good but it is not showing the true trends because of the halving mainly because the 2017 rise is dwarfing all the previous rises and with the type of zoom this chart has and its low quality it is not possible to see the real thing that happened at those times.
for example if you zoom in the 2012 halving you can see that there was a very big rally at the time due to halving. and the 2013 big rise may not have had much to do with halving both because we already had the rise and also because it is far away from the halving itself. same with 2016 halving and 2017 big rise.

So true. Also, people speculate on halving for a new ATH. Considering the memorable crash we got back 2017-2018, what about if Bitcoin, effectively goes up, as people speculate (including me), but no more than $15,000? Because this is also reasonable speculation and a possible situation. Why not?

Recently people started to quote the $100,000 price, I thought they were joking firstly, secondly they were just repeating, but finally, figured they really think about it. I wish they will be right but honestly, I doubt it's going to happen.

i don't see why $100k couldn't happen., considering the  way bubbles have been in the past and also the way money sometimes flows in the market like crazy, it is not that unlikely to see a price like $100k.
in the end it all comes down to supply and demand. bitcoin has a scarce supply and the adoption so far has been minuscule (less than 1% of the world) and it has not stopped or slowed down, instead it has only been speeding up so if that 1% grows to 5% we should see a price much higher than $100k. it may not happen this fast (2020) but it is not an unlikely target.

Well, I checked and compared the previous halvings just right now:

- Both hyped BTC x10
- Both ATH followed with a crash (or what we call a correction here) during several months

If we continue to compare with the previous halving, the $3,200 bottom we got not long ago was 'normal' or 'predictable'. And if Bitcoin goes up x10 like previously: $8k x 10=$80,000. So $100k more or less is possible, I finally changing my mind and admit it's possible. Even after a 'crash' if BTC ends on $70,000 I will be happy still ^^

[XCANA]

I think it's just speculation, ~~~

Will agree with you, but we should never dispute the fact that, the entire market of cryptocurrency is full of speculative talks and with this speculative talks come the price even though not exactly. We have seen how speculations had helped the price to rise and am still pretty sure that, the next bitcoin halve will be a remarkable one.

[BitHodler]

We have seen how speculations had helped the price to rise and am still pretty sure that, the next bitcoin halve will be a remarkable one.

Why will the next block halving be remarkable? It's just so that the block rewards are being cut in half, so technically speaking, the price going up 100% is enough to compensate for it.

People were talking about the block halving even below the $4000 mark, and we are hovering around the $8000 mark right now. In other words, the price has already gone up 100%, so it could very well be that the halving is priced in now.

This doesn't mean we won't go up anymore, but I doubt it's coming from speculation based on the block halving. It will be driven by demand, and eventually fomo kicks in exaggerating the rally to higher levels.

[franky1]

coin supply on markets are not what many presume as being
'OMG 12.5->6.25.. means theres less coins on the market meaning more demand'
this is wrong because theres 17mill+ coins out there for market supply possibility. vs 1800coins new supply. thus the change is miniscule

the market/mining dynamic is more so
'OMG pools are getting $100k now at 12.5 per block but will only get $50k if the price dont change'

pools NEEDing more than $50k wont sell for $50k. because they are selling at a loss and might aswell not mine
(as its cheaper to then just buy coin rather than electric contracts)
market users will see its not cheaper to invest in mining. and so will buy from the markets,
(causing a market upsurge)

[DeathAngel]

Less than a year to go now. I think we have exciting times ahead of us. The price will slowly increase until the halving & then hopefully history repeats itself & we get another crazy, parabolic bull run in approx 2021, post halving.

[ecnalubma]

Price may surge due to halving but be aware of what will happen next, we all know that all time high’s are temporary and the bears are long. This events will drive investors crazy again but after the massive dump cursing the hell of thy crypto. The real bullrun is the adoption lets take that into our notes.

[rosezionjohn]

I would not mind if people gets hyped about the halving next year. There's a good reason behind it though, the price of any commodity tends to increase if it gets harder to produce. That's quite similar to what's going to bitcoin everytime halving happens.

[Astvile]

Halving is a regular thing here in bitcoin industry,halving can help bitcoin to rise up in price maybe a little but may still help due to the hype and news it will create.Next years halving I think will affect bitcoins because last halving back in 2016 the halving happened first before the bull run but were in the vice versa right now,bull run is currently happening (as whatt the graph and price growth shows)I think halving will help a bit in pushing bitcoin more to have a higher ATH this time.

[Pursuer]

coin supply on markets are not what many presume as being
'OMG 12.5->6.25.. means theres less coins on the market meaning more demand'
this is wrong because theres 17mill+ coins out there for market supply possibility. vs 1800coins new supply. thus the change is miniscule

the first part is right but this change is huge not small as you say it is.
we have two forces that are going against each other in the market and both are growing. the supply (circulating and new coins) and demand (adoption). day by day both of these are growing, this is simplified but the rate of supply is fixed and by halving it reduces 50%. the rate of demand (or adoption) is somewhat fixed most of the times but it is growing. so even if it remains the same the price should rise up as the opposing force would be smaller after the halving.

[jonas5222000]

I believe it's possible because that already happened before so I guess history could repeat itself. The halving could be the reason of a big hype but I'm not expecting too much from it. It will surely make the prices better but I don't think it could reach the expectation of others.

Yes definitely it will repeat what was happened before and i think that its price and volume of traders will be go more and more,and this is what i hope to happen because its really take a big part in bitcoin.

[Nellayar]

Next year, there will the scheduled halving of Bitcoin. For people who are still new, the term can be a little dizzy. To make it clearer:

In case you are wondering, this means that the number of Bitcoin issued per each block, mined every ten minutes, will fall from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. In other words, this reduction of 50% will cut the block reward given to miners in half and further slow the production of Bitcoin’s finite supply. Source.

So this has something to do with the supply. The rewards available for miners is effectively reduced into half...or 50% less. This can slow down the production of more bitcoin coming from the side of the miners.

And this is the reason why some analysts are predicting that after and even before the scheduled halving, bitcoin can experience a great surge or a real bull run. Do you see this as a big probability or just another hype?

The more bitcoin to become half the more it goes up! It becomes sudden crash and sudden boom. Well, I will make a new plan on how I will going to buy bitcoin today. I am wandering in different sites that mined bitcoin and look for other opportunity so that before it breaks the 20,000 dollars then I have already a piece of it or even a 1 digit decimal. Hoping that the scarcity of its supply will really help for the bitcoin to surge better. In case it doubles up then investor today will become happy.

[serjent05]

And this is the reason why some analysts are predicting that after and even before the scheduled halving, bitcoin can experience a great surge or a real bull run. Do you see this as a big probability or just another hype?

If we base it on previous halvings, then we can say that it is a probability. The price increased more after the halving. It is logical because the supply will be lower and thus the price will move up. Though it is also being used to hype the price of bitcoin.

I believe the past history is not an indicator on what will happen in the future.  Price will go up because of adoption, the lesser supply or block halving won't affect the uphill climb of BTC price that much in my opinion.  The actual circulation of Bitcoin and the current adoption state is what dictate the price today and it will be on the future. People are getting wiser and there are more varieties of cryptocurrency to choose from.  So I believe the blockhalving will contribute a little to the price increase of Bitcoin.

The more bitcoin to become half the more it goes up! It becomes sudden crash and sudden boom.

Bitcoin Halving does not mean that the current circulation will be half instead the future supply will be cut to half.  I believe this halving is just played by huge holders to enable to pump the price of Bitcoin then dump when the target price is achieved.  This is all psychological games and we should be knowledgeable about this game so that we can profit from the trend.   

[Vishnu.Reang]

One thing is sure. The exchange prices can rise tremendously. Because right now we have a slight advantage for demand over supply, and that is why the prices are continuously rising. But at the same time, the demand is not strong enough to carry BTC to ATH. However, the block reward halving will upset this status quo and create a severe shortage of coins.

[Abiky]

I think it will have an effect in price. The dollar has lost ridiculous amount of value over time because of inflation. On Bitcoin we are on a fixed schedule.

There's a good thread about that here on BT: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130619.0

Monetary inflation will drop to around 2% from around 4%.

It's the point where we'll be finally inflating at a lower rate then the dollar.

I think the effect on price will mostly be psychological. The value of something is not an inherent property of that object but what people are willing to value it as.

That being said, I feel like it's a huge milestone.

Exactly. Bitcoin being a deflationary cryptocurrency is meant to become valuable over time. However, its value is determined by the people instead of a centralized authority. Which means, that prices could either become extremely high in the future or all the way around it. Everything depends on demand, whenever people buy more Bitcoin than what they sell. Still though, Bitcoin seems to rise in price next to every halving event.

As such, we could feel confident that our investment in Bitcoin will be worth a ton of money within a few years from now. No one knows what will happen by then. But, one thing for sure is that development and innovation is increasing over time. With the introduction of the Lightning Network, Schnorr Signatures, Confidential Transactions, and several other improvements, Bitcoin will become one of the most valuable assets on Earth.

Nonetheless, we've come a long way from the very beginnings of 2009 in terms of price, and most of all, mainstream adoption. Just my thoughts

[malekbaba]

Not a hype, it is pure Math. BTC will be scarce due tovhalving but there will be more demand than today. SO A COMMON rules of economics, price grows if demand rises. No one will ever miss any chance to accumulate btc before halving. Cause more electricity will be burnt in future to mine btc. Less mining reward will make btc more valuable

[waynechong1995]

Inevitably price would go up... It's an important milestone for rewards controls, IMO more institutional investors would raise the market demand, which the hype never stops, meanwhile double the electricity cost is needed to sustain the same amount of rewards and these would be done by somebody else with greater pockets, I just felt all these hype does not benefit public generally in a long run, maybe I'm not too technical, seems like it would negatively impact the network with centralised pools and increasingly high fees

[michellee]

I believe it's possible because that already happened before so I guess history could repeat itself. The halving could be the reason of a big hype but I'm not expecting too much from it. It will surely make the prices better but I don't think it could reach the expectation of others.

Yes definitely it will repeat what was happened before and i think that its price and volume of traders will be go more and more,and this is what i hope to happen because its really take a big part in bitcoin.

We can hope that history will repeat but we still not sure because there is a chance for bitcoin to rise more than the highest price before or it will to go down again. Many people have the same hope to see bitcoin price can reach more than $19k again, and they are prepared for its coming by buying more bitcoin. I wonder if the price will not only increase in a short time, but the price will stay for a long time at the highest price.

[pushups44]

Next year, there will the scheduled halving of Bitcoin. For people who are still new, the term can be a little dizzy. To make it clearer:

In case you are wondering, this means that the number of Bitcoin issued per each block, mined every ten minutes, will fall from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. In other words, this reduction of 50% will cut the block reward given to miners in half and further slow the production of Bitcoin’s finite supply. Source.

So this has something to do with the supply. The rewards available for miners is effectively reduced into half...or 50% less. This can slow down the production of more bitcoin coming from the side of the miners.

And this is the reason why some analysts are predicting that after and even before the scheduled halving, bitcoin can experience a great surge or a real bull run. Do you see this as a big probability or just another hype?

This is one of those situations in which expectations become a self-fulfilling prophecy. There will be so many people and institutions going long that they will likely create a tsunami effect drowning shorts and forcing them to cover, creating a cascade effect to higher highs. The past history of bitcoin shows we are entering into an extremely bullish phase.

[pooya87]

This is one of those situations in which expectations become a self-fulfilling prophecy. There will be so many people and institutions going long that they will likely create a tsunami effect drowning shorts and forcing them to cover, creating a cascade effect to higher highs. The past history of bitcoin shows we are entering into an extremely bullish phase.

one view over the market is that we are always in a bullish phase since if you look at the past 10 years history (long term) of bitcoin you can see that price has been rising from first day to this day and all the drops in between are negligible corrections and they mainly happen due to the bubbles that slow down the rise.

[killat]

Why you think Btc should Rise? Facebook coin coming up, potentially Google, then All of those big Corps as well, maybe Amazon too. I think Crypto should FALL in price... I mean total Capitalization in Crypto will Rise, but Bitcoin will lose it's market share... 98% of the people, won't ever buy Bitcoin but I'm sure they will trust Google/Amazon/FB coins much more, surely they will get a chance of CHARGEBACK/ Dispute/consumer protection, if somebody steal their funds or break the contract..

Bitcoin have ZERO protection, like if you send Coins and never received stuff you paid for? What can you do? What is your options? NONE. Capitalization in CRYPTO will spread..There will be no 100k Bitcoin and 2k Litecoin nonsense... Picks are already behind us... I see ZERO reason to pay 8k for BTC.. Why?

[philipma1957]

Why you think Btc should Rise? Facebook coin coming up, potentially Google, then All of those big Corps as well, maybe Amazon too. I think Crypto should FALL in price... I mean total Capitalization in Crypto will Rise, but Bitcoin will lose it's market share... 98% of the people, won't ever buy Bitcoin but I'm sure they will trust Google/Amazon/FB coins much more, surely they will get a chance of CHARGEBACK/ Dispute/consumer protection, if somebody steal their funds or break the contract..

Bitcoin have ZERO protection, like if you send Coins and never received stuff you paid for? What can you do? What is your options? NONE. Capitalization in CRYPTO will spread..There will be no 100k Bitcoin and 2k Litecoin nonsense... Picks are already behind us... I see ZERO reason to pay 8k for BTC.. Why?

 the value of gear that uses power and pays coins.
Is a real thing it is tangible .

Take the power station at Niagara Falls.

The USA and Canadian plants produce power 24/7/365.

The water flows and flows and flows.

Sometimes long rains make more flow and more power.

So they have excess power btc burns the power.  That is a factual real value.

All pos coins simply lack this ability.

So an amazon coin or a Facebook coin would need to be a POW coin to have that ability .

They would then need to build enough gear for the al gore rhythm to be able to burn enough excess power

To help the world wide power grid stay stable.

I suppose it could happen. But it may not.

Maybe the winklevoss twins are just looking to set face book up for a fall.

[Abiky]

Not a hype, it is pure Math. BTC will be scarce due tovhalving but there will be more demand than today. SO A COMMON rules of economics, price grows if demand rises. No one will ever miss any chance to accumulate btc before halving. Cause more electricity will be burnt in future to mine btc. Less mining reward will make btc more valuable

Exactly. Based purely on mathematics, should give us an insight of how much Bitcoin will be worth in the future. Intentionally, Satoshi designed Bitcoin so that it becomes scarcer over time with its deflationary issuance of coins via PoW mining. Every time there's a halving in the number of Bitcoin issued via PoW, prices seem to rise at unprecedented levels. This usually happens on or before the halving takes place, which means that we may be experiencing higher prices by next year (2020).

Because of Bitcoin's similarities to Gold, I'd say that it's not hype to speculate on its price. The pioneer cryptocurrency serves well as a store of value which is decentralized and censorship-resistant. While theoretically Bitcoin should rise in price over time, its value is greatly determined by the users themselves. Hence, Bitcoin could either rise in price within the halving event or simply remain within the same price range we're used to (between $7,500 to $8,000). Just my opinion

[Kwansimaa]

This is no hype mate, bitcoin will surely take another bull run when the halving finally takes place. This is a great opportunity to buy and invest into bitcoin before it peaks in 2020 when the halving finally takes place.

[Whaletale]

The halving is another way for hype which will make the miners to get more funds from the mining to cover the expense in running the business.

Which equally means that every cost on the current mining will be same but the gain from the mining will be cut in to 50% which gives reasonable account for the btc to surge in other to cover the cost of running.

[Achargeturry78]

A lot of speculation in this thread, Yeah i agree on most of you on the hype from the halving past halving gives hype to the market that it boost the price unto 1000x its  value on 2012. But bitcoin has a volatile price when it is on the market. We already know that bitcoin is getting more and more attention to the public even the government wants to add taxes when it comes to bitcoin transactions on the market. There are no other ways to find out on how this price will go when the halving will occur.

[CryptoBry]

The halving is another way for hype which will make the miners to get more funds from the mining to cover the expense in running the business.
Which equally means that every cost on the current mining will be same but the gain from the mining will be cut in to 50% which gives reasonable account for the btc to surge in other to cover the cost of running.

I am now wondering if miners are partly responsible for the hypes that will happen as the halving is coming as it is on their pocket interest that bitcoin really go up while the incentives from mining is cut half. I understand that if the actual price of bitcoin is lower than the cost, miners will themselves buy more bitcoin on the market for holding.

[Shenzou]

Next year, there will the scheduled halving of Bitcoin. For people who are still new, the term can be a little dizzy. To make it clearer:

In case you are wondering, this means that the number of Bitcoin issued per each block, mined every ten minutes, will fall from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. In other words, this reduction of 50% will cut the block reward given to miners in half and further slow the production of Bitcoin’s finite supply. Source.

So this has something to do with the supply. The rewards available for miners is effectively reduced into half...or 50% less. This can slow down the production of more bitcoin coming from the side of the miners.

And this is the reason why some analysts are predicting that after and even before the scheduled halving, bitcoin can experience a great surge or a real bull run. Do you see this as a big probability or just another hype?

Well obviously when we are talking about reducing the amount of bitcoin supply available for people to get we are talking about an increase in demand, and this demand will eventually lead to an increase of price, many speculate that this increase is going to happen prior to the halving next year, i my guess is that most investors and the ones who really think that it will surge will start to stock up on it start from the last quarter of this year which makes me think that we might see bitcoin reach its highest value yet by next year when this happens.

[agatha90]

Follow the historical pattern of increasing Bitcoin past, indeed after or before Halving Day, the price of Bitcoin rose high. The third halving day is expected to fall in May 2020. This reduction will have an impact on the availability of Bitcoin as a whole, so that Bitcoin has the potential to become more expensive, because it allows demand to exceed the supply in the market.

[BeManga]

Next year, there will the scheduled halving of Bitcoin. For people who are still new, the term can be a little dizzy. To make it clearer:

In case you are wondering, this means that the number of Bitcoin issued per each block, mined every ten minutes, will fall from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. In other words, this reduction of 50% will cut the block reward given to miners in half and further slow the production of Bitcoin’s finite supply. Source.

So this has something to do with the supply. The rewards available for miners is effectively reduced into half...or 50% less. This can slow down the production of more bitcoin coming from the side of the miners.

And this is the reason why some analysts are predicting that after and even before the scheduled halving, bitcoin can experience a great surge or a real bull run. Do you see this as a big probability or just another hype?

its not another hype .. it always happen in bitcoin before or after halving and i think it will also happen in this incoming halving.. the price drop when there not enough support to buy the bitcoin dump by the miner. when halving occur miner will get less bitcoin if its not enough for the demand the price will really rise.

[veleten]

it is too early to hype on the halving
it ain't happening for another year at the very least
but we all know that despite all the fud , it influences the price greatly , it could happen after a month or a week before the halving
but if you checked the price graphs - there is a clear indication that it rises every time
this one  should not be an exception

[XCANA]

This is no hype mate, bitcoin will surely take another bull run when the halving finally takes place. This is a great opportunity to buy and invest into bitcoin before it peaks in 2020 when the halving finally takes place.

Agree with you mate becasue the current rise in the price of Bitcoin is as a result of the dip we experienced during last year 2018. This year 2019 has been a correction year toward the halve before the bull run. Speculation is also part of the game and we shouldn't shine away from the truth. Even the Bitcoin halve will come after the actual date stipulated for the halve to take place, so, get ready for the bigger scene again.

[blockchainwriters]

Bitcoin halving is most important event which comes every four years so considering the importance whales pump btc to highest point so its the time to book profits

[Vishnu.Reang]

I think that the impact halving can have on the prices is over-hyped. Right now, approx. 1,800 coins are being mined per day. After the block reward halving, this will get reduced to around 900 coins per day. But even the current mining volume represents just about 0.1% of the daily transaction volume. I don't think that the prices will get impacted by a reduction of 0.1% of coins.

[BitHodler]

I think that the impact halving can have on the prices is over-hyped. Right now, approx. 1,800 coins are being mined per day. After the block reward halving, this will get reduced to around 900 coins per day. But even the current mining volume represents just about 0.1% of the daily transaction volume. I don't think that the prices will get impacted by a reduction of 0.1% of coins.

The price only has to increase by 100% to make up for the cut in the block rewards, else the difficulty will adjust itself to lower levels so that mining can still be profitable with only half the block rewards.

I do however agree that block halvings in general are quite overhyped, but there isn't much that you can do about it. People love to buy coins that go up, and when Bitcoin is going up, they'll jump in further exaggerating the increase.

Litecoin's block halving is about two months away. It went from $20 to now $120 which should have the block halving priced in, but as irrational people are, it's very likely going to pump way beyond $120 in the coming weeks.

[monalia]

I think that the impact halving can have on the prices is over-hyped. Right now, approx. 1,800 coins are being mined per day. After the block reward halving, this will get reduced to around 900 coins per day. But even the current mining volume represents just about 0.1% of the daily transaction volume. I don't think that the prices will get impacted by a reduction of 0.1% of coins.

How come you say the reduction of mining volume will not affect the market value. I am sure you need to look back the previous halving and how it has impacted the market that time.
If you are fine, you do not need to care the marketvalue or something and invest after the halving time. Don't invest now.

[cryptjh]

I think that the impact halving can have on the prices is over-hyped. Right now, approx. 1,800 coins are being mined per day. After the block reward halving, this will get reduced to around 900 coins per day. But even the current mining volume represents just about 0.1% of the daily transaction volume. I don't think that the prices will get impacted by a reduction of 0.1% of coins.

The miners can already now find buyers to all the bitcoins they mine and want to sell, so when half of the bitcoins they can sell disappears, we will see a price increase from less supply.
The halving event is already now starting to be calculated into the market.

Also remember that most of the daily trade is the same bitcoins that getting sold over and over again, back and forward from the same fiat or stable coins.

The market needs a new inflow of fiat to be able to buy up the miners coins,  and when the market will get 900 fewer bitcoins to sell each day, the price of the remaining bitcoins will also increase.

[Abiky]

it is too early to hype on the halving
it ain't happening for another year at the very least
but we all know that despite all the fud , it influences the price greatly , it could happen after a month or a week before the halving
but if you checked the price graphs - there is a clear indication that it rises every time
this one  should not be an exception

Agree. There's still time before the halving occurs within the Bitcoin blockchain. While it's early to tell whenever prices will rise or fall by then, previous events indicates us that it's very likely that Bitcoin will rise in price by a large margin. It's not about hype, but rather mathematics in the way Bitcoin's supply is deflationary. With good timing, we'll be able to benefit in the next halving if we buy now while prices are cheap.

Perhaps, Bitcoin will be worth $10,000 by 2020's halving event. But, it's important to keep watch at current price movements across the market just to be safe. With the known volatility of Bitcoin, it's highly uncertain to determine its value.

Nonetheless, there will be lots of excitement once Bitcoin's next halving becomes a reality. Just my opinion