Bitcoin Halving: Hype to Speculate?

[Herbert2020]

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that chart is good but it is not showing the true trends because of the halving mainly because the 2017 rise is dwarfing all the previous rises and with the type of zoom this chart has and its low quality it is not possible to see the real thing that happened at those times.
for example if you zoom in the 2012 halving you can see that there was a very big rally at the time due to halving. and the 2013 big rise may not have had much to do with halving both because we already had the rise and also because it is far away from the halving itself. same with 2016 halving and 2017 big rise.

So true. Also, people speculate on halving for a new ATH. Considering the memorable crash we got back 2017-2018, what about if Bitcoin, effectively goes up, as people speculate (including me), but no more than $15,000? Because this is also reasonable speculation and a possible situation. Why not?

Recently people started to quote the $100,000 price, I thought they were joking firstly, secondly they were just repeating, but finally, figured they really think about it. I wish they will be right but honestly, I doubt it's going to happen.

i don't see why $100k couldn't happen., considering the  way bubbles have been in the past and also the way money sometimes flows in the market like crazy, it is not that unlikely to see a price like $100k.
in the end it all comes down to supply and demand. bitcoin has a scarce supply and the adoption so far has been minuscule (less than 1% of the world) and it has not stopped or slowed down, instead it has only been speeding up so if that 1% grows to 5% we should see a price much higher than $100k. it may not happen this fast (2020) but it is not an unlikely target.

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[millgates]

It seems that people are very enthusiast about bitcoin halving. But usually the price will rise before it happen, and then the price will fall 1-2 day before halving happen. So ithis case there are two point that we should undestrand. The first point is the bitcoin halving itself will increase bitcoin price to certain level, and the second point is the hype will make bitcoin price increase higher and make bitcoin price fall when the hype is decrease. So basically bitcoin price will tend to rise because bitcoin halving. That is because supply and demand law.

[Wingo]

The halving will have a great impact over the production of new Bitcoins that will lead to its demand increasing faster than the upward movement of the supply. There will surely be a surge in price as we approach the date of the halving, assuming that the number of bitcoin users is constant.

But there are also negative effects which will definitely happen to the speed of the transactions. Because mining is becoming less profitable, more bitcoin miners will shift to mining other digital currencies. Then the processing of new blocks will slow down. This is one problem with the PoW protocol. If there are only ways to make several improvements on this protocol to make the bitcoin blockchain more scalable.

[LeGaulois]

...

that chart is good but it is not showing the true trends because of the halving mainly because the 2017 rise is dwarfing all the previous rises and with the type of zoom this chart has and its low quality it is not possible to see the real thing that happened at those times.
for example if you zoom in the 2012 halving you can see that there was a very big rally at the time due to halving. and the 2013 big rise may not have had much to do with halving both because we already had the rise and also because it is far away from the halving itself. same with 2016 halving and 2017 big rise.

So true. Also, people speculate on halving for a new ATH. Considering the memorable crash we got back 2017-2018, what about if Bitcoin, effectively goes up, as people speculate (including me), but no more than $15,000? Because this is also reasonable speculation and a possible situation. Why not?

Recently people started to quote the $100,000 price, I thought they were joking firstly, secondly they were just repeating, but finally, figured they really think about it. I wish they will be right but honestly, I doubt it's going to happen.

i don't see why $100k couldn't happen., considering the  way bubbles have been in the past and also the way money sometimes flows in the market like crazy, it is not that unlikely to see a price like $100k.
in the end it all comes down to supply and demand. bitcoin has a scarce supply and the adoption so far has been minuscule (less than 1% of the world) and it has not stopped or slowed down, instead it has only been speeding up so if that 1% grows to 5% we should see a price much higher than $100k. it may not happen this fast (2020) but it is not an unlikely target.

Well, I checked and compared the previous halvings just right now:

- Both hyped BTC x10
- Both ATH followed with a crash (or what we call a correction here) during several months

If we continue to compare with the previous halving, the $3,200 bottom we got not long ago was 'normal' or 'predictable'. And if Bitcoin goes up x10 like previously: $8k x 10=$80,000. So $100k more or less is possible, I finally changing my mind and admit it's possible. Even after a 'crash' if BTC ends on $70,000 I will be happy still ^^

[XCANA]

I think it's just speculation, ~~~

Will agree with you, but we should never dispute the fact that, the entire market of cryptocurrency is full of speculative talks and with this speculative talks come the price even though not exactly. We have seen how speculations had helped the price to rise and am still pretty sure that, the next bitcoin halve will be a remarkable one.

[BitHodler]

We have seen how speculations had helped the price to rise and am still pretty sure that, the next bitcoin halve will be a remarkable one.

Why will the next block halving be remarkable? It's just so that the block rewards are being cut in half, so technically speaking, the price going up 100% is enough to compensate for it.

People were talking about the block halving even below the $4000 mark, and we are hovering around the $8000 mark right now. In other words, the price has already gone up 100%, so it could very well be that the halving is priced in now.

This doesn't mean we won't go up anymore, but I doubt it's coming from speculation based on the block halving. It will be driven by demand, and eventually fomo kicks in exaggerating the rally to higher levels.

[franky1]

coin supply on markets are not what many presume as being
'OMG 12.5->6.25.. means theres less coins on the market meaning more demand'
this is wrong because theres 17mill+ coins out there for market supply possibility. vs 1800coins new supply. thus the change is miniscule

the market/mining dynamic is more so
'OMG pools are getting $100k now at 12.5 per block but will only get $50k if the price dont change'

pools NEEDing more than $50k wont sell for $50k. because they are selling at a loss and might aswell not mine
(as its cheaper to then just buy coin rather than electric contracts)
market users will see its not cheaper to invest in mining. and so will buy from the markets,
(causing a market upsurge)

[DeathAngel]

Less than a year to go now. I think we have exciting times ahead of us. The price will slowly increase until the halving & then hopefully history repeats itself & we get another crazy, parabolic bull run in approx 2021, post halving.

[ecnalubma]

Price may surge due to halving but be aware of what will happen next, we all know that all time high’s are temporary and the bears are long. This events will drive investors crazy again but after the massive dump cursing the hell of thy crypto. The real bullrun is the adoption lets take that into our notes.

[rosezionjohn]

I would not mind if people gets hyped about the halving next year. There's a good reason behind it though, the price of any commodity tends to increase if it gets harder to produce. That's quite similar to what's going to bitcoin everytime halving happens.

[Astvile]

Halving is a regular thing here in bitcoin industry,halving can help bitcoin to rise up in price maybe a little but may still help due to the hype and news it will create.Next years halving I think will affect bitcoins because last halving back in 2016 the halving happened first before the bull run but were in the vice versa right now,bull run is currently happening (as whatt the graph and price growth shows)I think halving will help a bit in pushing bitcoin more to have a higher ATH this time.

[Pursuer]

coin supply on markets are not what many presume as being
'OMG 12.5->6.25.. means theres less coins on the market meaning more demand'
this is wrong because theres 17mill+ coins out there for market supply possibility. vs 1800coins new supply. thus the change is miniscule

the first part is right but this change is huge not small as you say it is.
we have two forces that are going against each other in the market and both are growing. the supply (circulating and new coins) and demand (adoption). day by day both of these are growing, this is simplified but the rate of supply is fixed and by halving it reduces 50%. the rate of demand (or adoption) is somewhat fixed most of the times but it is growing. so even if it remains the same the price should rise up as the opposing force would be smaller after the halving.

[jonas5222000]

I believe it's possible because that already happened before so I guess history could repeat itself. The halving could be the reason of a big hype but I'm not expecting too much from it. It will surely make the prices better but I don't think it could reach the expectation of others.

Yes definitely it will repeat what was happened before and i think that its price and volume of traders will be go more and more,and this is what i hope to happen because its really take a big part in bitcoin.

[Nellayar]

Next year, there will the scheduled halving of Bitcoin. For people who are still new, the term can be a little dizzy. To make it clearer:

In case you are wondering, this means that the number of Bitcoin issued per each block, mined every ten minutes, will fall from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. In other words, this reduction of 50% will cut the block reward given to miners in half and further slow the production of Bitcoin’s finite supply. Source.

So this has something to do with the supply. The rewards available for miners is effectively reduced into half...or 50% less. This can slow down the production of more bitcoin coming from the side of the miners.

And this is the reason why some analysts are predicting that after and even before the scheduled halving, bitcoin can experience a great surge or a real bull run. Do you see this as a big probability or just another hype?

The more bitcoin to become half the more it goes up! It becomes sudden crash and sudden boom. Well, I will make a new plan on how I will going to buy bitcoin today. I am wandering in different sites that mined bitcoin and look for other opportunity so that before it breaks the 20,000 dollars then I have already a piece of it or even a 1 digit decimal. Hoping that the scarcity of its supply will really help for the bitcoin to surge better. In case it doubles up then investor today will become happy.

[serjent05]

And this is the reason why some analysts are predicting that after and even before the scheduled halving, bitcoin can experience a great surge or a real bull run. Do you see this as a big probability or just another hype?

If we base it on previous halvings, then we can say that it is a probability. The price increased more after the halving. It is logical because the supply will be lower and thus the price will move up. Though it is also being used to hype the price of bitcoin.

I believe the past history is not an indicator on what will happen in the future.  Price will go up because of adoption, the lesser supply or block halving won't affect the uphill climb of BTC price that much in my opinion.  The actual circulation of Bitcoin and the current adoption state is what dictate the price today and it will be on the future. People are getting wiser and there are more varieties of cryptocurrency to choose from.  So I believe the blockhalving will contribute a little to the price increase of Bitcoin.

The more bitcoin to become half the more it goes up! It becomes sudden crash and sudden boom.

Bitcoin Halving does not mean that the current circulation will be half instead the future supply will be cut to half.  I believe this halving is just played by huge holders to enable to pump the price of Bitcoin then dump when the target price is achieved.  This is all psychological games and we should be knowledgeable about this game so that we can profit from the trend.   

[Vishnu.Reang]

One thing is sure. The exchange prices can rise tremendously. Because right now we have a slight advantage for demand over supply, and that is why the prices are continuously rising. But at the same time, the demand is not strong enough to carry BTC to ATH. However, the block reward halving will upset this status quo and create a severe shortage of coins.

[Abiky]

I think it will have an effect in price. The dollar has lost ridiculous amount of value over time because of inflation. On Bitcoin we are on a fixed schedule.

There's a good thread about that here on BT: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130619.0

Monetary inflation will drop to around 2% from around 4%.

It's the point where we'll be finally inflating at a lower rate then the dollar.

I think the effect on price will mostly be psychological. The value of something is not an inherent property of that object but what people are willing to value it as.

That being said, I feel like it's a huge milestone.

Exactly. Bitcoin being a deflationary cryptocurrency is meant to become valuable over time. However, its value is determined by the people instead of a centralized authority. Which means, that prices could either become extremely high in the future or all the way around it. Everything depends on demand, whenever people buy more Bitcoin than what they sell. Still though, Bitcoin seems to rise in price next to every halving event.

As such, we could feel confident that our investment in Bitcoin will be worth a ton of money within a few years from now. No one knows what will happen by then. But, one thing for sure is that development and innovation is increasing over time. With the introduction of the Lightning Network, Schnorr Signatures, Confidential Transactions, and several other improvements, Bitcoin will become one of the most valuable assets on Earth.

Nonetheless, we've come a long way from the very beginnings of 2009 in terms of price, and most of all, mainstream adoption. Just my thoughts

[malekbaba]

Not a hype, it is pure Math. BTC will be scarce due tovhalving but there will be more demand than today. SO A COMMON rules of economics, price grows if demand rises. No one will ever miss any chance to accumulate btc before halving. Cause more electricity will be burnt in future to mine btc. Less mining reward will make btc more valuable

[waynechong1995]

Inevitably price would go up... It's an important milestone for rewards controls, IMO more institutional investors would raise the market demand, which the hype never stops, meanwhile double the electricity cost is needed to sustain the same amount of rewards and these would be done by somebody else with greater pockets, I just felt all these hype does not benefit public generally in a long run, maybe I'm not too technical, seems like it would negatively impact the network with centralised pools and increasingly high fees

[michellee]

I believe it's possible because that already happened before so I guess history could repeat itself. The halving could be the reason of a big hype but I'm not expecting too much from it. It will surely make the prices better but I don't think it could reach the expectation of others.

Yes definitely it will repeat what was happened before and i think that its price and volume of traders will be go more and more,and this is what i hope to happen because its really take a big part in bitcoin.

We can hope that history will repeat but we still not sure because there is a chance for bitcoin to rise more than the highest price before or it will to go down again. Many people have the same hope to see bitcoin price can reach more than $19k again, and they are prepared for its coming by buying more bitcoin. I wonder if the price will not only increase in a short time, but the price will stay for a long time at the highest price.