Bitcoin Halving: Hype to Speculate?

[CryptoBry]

Next year, there will the scheduled halving of Bitcoin. For people who are still new, the term can be a little dizzy. To make it clearer:

In case you are wondering, this means that the number of Bitcoin issued per each block, mined every ten minutes, will fall from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. In other words, this reduction of 50% will cut the block reward given to miners in half and further slow the production of Bitcoin’s finite supply. Source.

So this has something to do with the supply. The rewards available for miners is effectively reduced into half...or 50% less. This can slow down the production of more bitcoin coming from the side of the miners.

And this is the reason why some analysts are predicting that after and even before the scheduled halving, bitcoin can experience a great surge or a real bull run. Do you see this as a big probability or just another hype?

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[mk4]

I'm personally not expecting a "great surge", but more of a gradual increase in price. Less bitcoin being minted means less bitcoins that could potentially be sold by the miners. Unless people heavily FOMO due to this fact, I don't think we would immediately feel the effect.

[Beerwizzard]

For me it is something like a hype attempt that have some reasonable background.
The problem is that we don't know how much money miners are dumping. Considering that they are immediately selling all their revenue on exchanges it would definetely make an influence on the price. But I'm sure that most part of their coins are remain somewhere in miner's stash.

[Nalbo]

We've seen a 3 months boost in price on every halving of bitcoin and it would be similar this time. But the boost would be much smaller as larger number of people would speculate the same. As price are just supply and demand, we could see much more turbulent price of bitcoin before and after the halving. This would also decrease the income from mining which if not compensated by high price would be made by miners going out of business.

[pawanjain]

Who says the reason can't be both ? The speculation is because bitcoin has been in downtrend for a long time and now that it is gaining traction people want to boost it's price.
May be these people are those who didn't sell at the right time before the bitcoin bubble burst and the price went down.
The hype is because BTC has been pumping prior to every halving and since it has been in downtrend for a long time. People are using this news to hype the market.
Well it might be both the reasons but one thing is for sure that BTC will certainly gain a little momentum and will increase in price.

[KonstantinosM]

I think it will have an effect in price. The dollar has lost ridiculous amount of value over time because of inflation. On Bitcoin we are on a fixed schedule.

There's a good thread about that here on BT: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130619.0

Monetary inflation will drop to around 2% from around 4%.

It's the point where we'll be finally inflating at a lower rate then the dollar.

I think the effect on price will mostly be psychological. The value of something is not an inherent property of that object but what people are willing to value it as.

That being said, I feel like it's a huge milestone.

[jakelyson]

And this is the reason why some analysts are predicting that after and even before the scheduled halving, bitcoin can experience a great surge or a real bull run. Do you see this as a big probability or just another hype?

If we base it on previous halvings, then we can say that it is a probability. The price increased more after the halving. It is logical because the supply will be lower and thus the price will move up. Though it is also being used to hype the price of bitcoin.

[Artemis3]

Next year, there will the scheduled halving of Bitcoin. For people who are still new, the term can be a little dizzy. To make it clearer:

In case you are wondering, this means that the number of Bitcoin issued per each block, mined every ten minutes, will fall from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. In other words, this reduction of 50% will cut the block reward given to miners in half and further slow the production of Bitcoin’s finite supply.

So this has something to do with the supply. The rewards available for miners is effectively reduced into half...or 50% less. This can slow down the production of more bitcoin coming from the side of the miners.

And this is the reason why some analysts are predicting that after and even before the scheduled halving, bitcoin can experience a great surge or a real bull run. Do you see this as a big probability or just another hype?

If history repeats, i think so. But then the price will correct back to where it should have been. Of course, with each passing halving, these "bullruns" will become weaker and weaker, and eventually people won't bother anymore.

This is all part of the design, bitcoin supply production rate is scheduled to slow down by half every 4 years. Do not expect mining to remain as profitable, even with technology advances, and the occasional bitcoin price going up. It is bound to become less and less profitable, until nobody paying electricity can't ever recover costs anymore. The last miners will be those with access to free electricity, who want to run their miners more like a hobby or because it benefits their business somehow. On a long term, i expect the difficulty to go down as the large players quit entirely.

Those giant mining operations are doomed to close, i just can't tell if this would take 5 or 20 years more.

[Slow death]

look what happened in the past that you can easily see that the price has increased a lot. if there is something that the world crypto loves are news like these: halving, hard forks and partnerships with big companies for the price to go to the moon, even if most of the time it is just pump and dump, but the price always increases a lot in most when the subject is related to halving or major partnerships

[okala]

We are leaving in a speculative era and bitcoin and it activities have always been an object of speculations but even at that it one can not expect too much from the 2020 halving. Things can go whatever ways either positive or negative.

[livingfree]

It is not just a hype but if you will base all of those past events after the halving, the price surged. It's expected that the price might move positively because of this.

You can judge base on the past charts and see the changes prior to the halving. We might see a different outcome by 2020-2021 but I'm very optimistic that we will positive changes.

[uneng]

Maybe the currently fluctuations in btc price are already a pre-halving effect. Specialists say it's predictable that the currency starts boosting its price one year before the great event, what can mean a big rise in bitcoin price until there.
I don't know if it's a hype or fomo: it could be a hype, because it has already became a tradition, since it happens on every halvings, and it could be fomo, as it's a very predictable scenario and nobody wants to lose the chance to earn some profit with bitcoin bull run.

[hatshepsut93]

When everyone is expecting that the price will skyrocket at certain date, chances are it will skyrocket long before it, because no one wants to miss out on it. The most recent rise from $4,000 to $8,000 might even be attributed to the halvening expectations - as soon as it started looking like we have passed the bottom, the FOMO kicked in and people started quickly accumulating.

[rdbase]

Same thing is happening to litecoin later this year and people are buying right now hence the price surge since the beginning of the year. It used to be $68 now is nearly $90 in just about four months since the halving was announce to the mass publlic ~ atleast this is when I first heard about it while searching about other cryptocurrency news.
So when the date of the bitcoin halving approaches expect people to start buying bitcoin if cheap at the time and the price to surge as well.

[r1s2g3]

There is no perfect formula derived for market up and down  so we will be never going to find that how much effect reward halving is going to do. so keep speculating.

[tiem100]

I think it will affect the price, why? Cuz we talk about it and entire internet is talking about it and everyone will invest their money few months before it happens, I know I will. That's how market works. It's all up to us and if we believe in that bull trend.

[Ailmand]

I believe it's possible because that already happened before so I guess history could repeat itself. The halving could be the reason of a big hype but I'm not expecting too much from it. It will surely make the prices better but I don't think it could reach the expectation of others.

[rdluffy]

If people believe that the halving will increase price...this is going to happen
They will try to buy before the halving and the the price will rise

[Pamadar]

There is no perfect formula derived for market up and down  so we will be never going to find that how much effect reward halving is going to do. so keep speculating.

I agree with you, there's no exact directions that will pointed this halving to bring surge to current valuation, everything still depends to it's speculative guess, if halving will be a good turning factors then so be it, let the next coming year brings the results, let's all expect and be optimistic ahead.

[Genemind]

The future depends on how we believe things will happen. As for me, crypto would surely strike high if it's already implanted in the minds of most traders and investors. No technical analysis or speculation could change the situation but it all depends on how we believe in the future of the market. The hype would continue if we'll all be optimistic towards the volatility of bitcoin.