Pls note that the first activity where you get a chance to get promoted on next cycle is 14*55=770
Why?
Legendary requires 775. So theoretically with 775-14=761 you'd already have a chance.
Note that the activity has not to be divisible by 14. The activity is min(posts, time*14).
If your theoretical activity would be higher (e.g. 1000+), but you'd have 761 posts, your activity would be 761.
Ok, the activity would be lower if you posted less than 14 posts in an activity cycle.
Something that doesn't happen so much, I guess.
Take you: your activity is 67*14=938...
By the way, it is still slightly off
luck numerator=rounddown((activity-770)/14,0)+1
luck denominator= rounddown((1030-770)/14,0)
luck=1/(luckdenominator-lucknumerator+1)
Yes, because there's a typo here:
luck denominator= rounddown((1030-770)/14,0)
+1So in your case:
Take me (activity 938) for example, my probability is roughly 1/7 (14.3 %). But based on your formula, i get:
luck numerator = 13
luck denominator = 19
luck = 14.29%
The correct formula is:
luck = 14 / (1030-activity)
Quite sad that it took us multiple posts and (way too much) thinking to find that (extremely easy) formula
If my activity were 1022, next cycle I would be legendary as activity it will be 1036.
So luck is 100%, but with your formula I get 175%.
If my activity were 1008, I would be legendary either at 1022 or at 1036, hence my luck=50%.
But with your formula is 63%...
I still don't get it...
I do agree it is sad.