On short-term traders

[adaseb]

Well to simply put, the house always wins, and that is in relation to the notion that short-term traders are essentially gamblers[i/].

In trading there is no house. The house edge is basically the commission that your exchange charges and also the spread which you pay if you remove liquidity from the market makers.

However you are not trading against the exchange you are trading against other traders. And they take your short when you go long and vice versa.

So it doesn't always mean the house will win, however if you over-trade and end up losing more in commissions and spread then its the house edge which took your profits not the exchange. Don't know if this make sense. But its common practise among many new retail traders who generally take good trades but since they over-trade they still can't make a profit.

[el kaka22]

Gamblers for sure, I have met with bunch of day traders in my life and they are usually people who trade according to strict rules which is why I will always love them but will never become one of them. They trade with military precision and they never get out of their system no matter what happens which is not something people who do not have that discipline and I am one of those people who do not have that.

However, they are always trading and profiting on regular days, they never profit on wild days big things happen, even while going up they profit less than others because they are focused on the small movements and when something big happens they always miss, they either win small constantly or lose a lot once for whole their life which I think is rolling a dice and hoping this would be a regular day and not a wild day in bitcoin.

[jademaxsuy]

I do consider short term holders as losers because they  had the highest chance to lose money. I do not see short term holder here became successful in their activity. As you can see short term holder will have to gain low profit and then when they decided to join again then it will become risky as the market price has high volatility. If market price continues to drop then short term holder will lose more money in the process as it will resort to selling asset even if the market has been falling.

[deisik]

After being on this forum for years a large portion of people have little to no idea why they are buying something outside of the idea that someday they are going to be rich, so yes long term holders too are gambling a lot of times.  You seem to have been here a long time.  Can we not agree that people buy crypto in which they just hope it goes up?  If you ask them why I would reckon some would have no idea what they bought other than the drivel they read in one of the [ann] threads.  Throwing your money at that I would consider a gamble, whatever their motives might be.  I think we can agree on that right?

Now you are starting to see the light

That gamblers in trading are not inherent to just short-term trading. You seem to accept the fact that they are also present among longer-term traders. Now you have to make the next logical step and understand that the majority of people can't be losing all the time as it is against human psychology and people's ego (apart from die-hard masochists and their likes, of course). But short-term trading is where this becomes evident and pretty fast at that. Then you've got to realize that gamblers can't possibly be the majority of people engaged in the short-term trading. They come and go, and if they don't quit, they go to longer terms and there they accumulate

[pushups44]

It depends on the individual. Some traders have extraordinary talent and can move in and out of the market quickly and profitably. However, most traders are bound to fail statistically, and even successful traders can have a few bad months in a row. The best strategy, in my view, is to simply buy and hold. Short-term trading can be compared to gambling insofar as it can be harder to predict the sudden swings in the market. However, there is definitely skill involved in trading.

[wheelz1200]

After being on this forum for years a large portion of people have little to no idea why they are buying something outside of the idea that someday they are going to be rich, so yes long term holders too are gambling a lot of times.  You seem to have been here a long time.  Can we not agree that people buy crypto in which they just hope it goes up?  If you ask them why I would reckon some would have no idea what they bought other than the drivel they read in one of the [ann] threads.  Throwing your money at that I would consider a gamble, whatever their motives might be.  I think we can agree on that right?

Now you are starting to see the light

That gamblers in trading are not inherent to just short-term trading. You seem to accept the fact that they are also present among longer-term traders. Now you have to make the next logical step and understand that the majority of people can't be losing all the time as it is against human psychology and people's ego (apart from die-hard masochists and their likes, of course). But short-term trading is where this becomes evident and pretty fast at that. Then you've got to realize that gamblers can't possibly be the majority of people engaged in the short-term trading. They come and go, and if they don't quit, they go to longer terms and there they accumulate

I never said longer term trading isn't gambling.  I dont understand your position.  In short no one knows if bitcoin will be higher or lower on Saturday, therefore making it a gamble.  Some people use certain methods to narrow down the gamble but its gambling.  Just like in sports you dont know if the best team will win on a given day, but over the course of a given year you can safely assume they will have a winning record, i.e. the longer the timespan the lower the variance.

I cant be convinced that short term trading is profitable doing it all the time.  Is it bad, no I'm not saying that most of us have taken a gamble from time to time

[wheelz1200]

It depends on the individual. Some traders have extraordinary talent and can move in and out of the market quickly and profitably. However, most traders are bound to fail statistically, and even successful traders can have a few bad months in a row. The best strategy, in my view, is to simply buy and hold. Short-term trading can be compared to gambling insofar as it can be harder to predict the sudden swings in the market. However, there is definitely skill involved in trading.

Yes just like with sports gambling, you can have very educated sports gamblers that know how every individual player is doing, stats of playing at night vs the day, home games versus away games, playing on a weekend vs. Midweek, the list goes on and on but it never takes the gamble out of that bet

[deisik]

After being on this forum for years a large portion of people have little to no idea why they are buying something outside of the idea that someday they are going to be rich, so yes long term holders too are gambling a lot of times.  You seem to have been here a long time.  Can we not agree that people buy crypto in which they just hope it goes up?  If you ask them why I would reckon some would have no idea what they bought other than the drivel they read in one of the [ann] threads.  Throwing your money at that I would consider a gamble, whatever their motives might be.  I think we can agree on that right?

Now you are starting to see the light

That gamblers in trading are not inherent to just short-term trading. You seem to accept the fact that they are also present among longer-term traders. Now you have to make the next logical step and understand that the majority of people can't be losing all the time as it is against human psychology and people's ego (apart from die-hard masochists and their likes, of course). But short-term trading is where this becomes evident and pretty fast at that. Then you've got to realize that gamblers can't possibly be the majority of people engaged in the short-term trading. They come and go, and if they don't quit, they go to longer terms and there they accumulate

I never said longer term trading isn't gambling.  I dont understand your position

What's wrong with understanding my position?

I think I made it abundantly clear. If all trading is sort of gambling (that remains to be seen, though), then short-term trading (contrary to the public opinion, intuitive thinking and gut feelings) is most likely a form of trading which has the least "gambling" component in it for the reasons stated and explained in the OP. I hope I won't have to reiterate them here all over again

In short no one knows if bitcoin will be higher or lower on Saturday, therefore making it a gamble.  Some people use certain methods to narrow down the gamble but its gambling

I guess you may want to revise your understanding of what gambling really is. If you are making decisions on some logical premises or factual information (read, your decisions are not totally at random), this is not gambling even if no one knows what the price of Bitcoin will be on Saturday, whether it will exist at all by the weekend, or even whether you will be proved wrong most of the time

That seems to be the part you are missing in your reasoning

[wheelz1200]

After being on this forum for years a large portion of people have little to no idea why they are buying something outside of the idea that someday they are going to be rich, so yes long term holders too are gambling a lot of times.  You seem to have been here a long time.  Can we not agree that people buy crypto in which they just hope it goes up?  If you ask them why I would reckon some would have no idea what they bought other than the drivel they read in one of the [ann] threads.  Throwing your money at that I would consider a gamble, whatever their motives might be.  I think we can agree on that right?

Now you are starting to see the light

That gamblers in trading are not inherent to just short-term trading. You seem to accept the fact that they are also present among longer-term traders. Now you have to make the next logical step and understand that the majority of people can't be losing all the time as it is against human psychology and people's ego (apart from die-hard masochists and their likes, of course). But short-term trading is where this becomes evident and pretty fast at that. Then you've got to realize that gamblers can't possibly be the majority of people engaged in the short-term trading. They come and go, and if they don't quit, they go to longer terms and there they accumulate

I never said longer term trading isn't gambling.  I dont understand your position

What's wrong with understanding my position?

I think I made it abundantly clear. If all trading is sort of gambling (that remains to be seen, though), then short-term trading (contrary to the public opinion, intuitive thinking and gut feelings) is most likely a form of trading which has the least "gambling" component in it for the reasons stated and explained in the OP. I hope I won't have to reiterate them here all over again

In short no one knows if bitcoin will be higher or lower on Saturday, therefore making it a gamble.  Some people use certain methods to narrow down the gamble but its gambling

I guess you may want to revise your understanding of what gambling really is. If you are making decisions on some logical premises or factual information (read, your decisions are not totally at random), this is not gambling even if no one knows what the price of Bitcoin will be on Saturday, whether it will exist at all by the weekend, or even whether you will be proved wrong most of the time

That seems to be the part you are missing in your reasoning

So you can accurately tell if the price of bitcoin will be higher or lower in 2 weeks versus if bitcoin will be higher or lower over the long term....my advise to you would be to find those people tell them to go to bitmex and take out a 100x margin position and ride their coat tails it should be super easy to do.

[wheelz1200]

After being on this forum for years a large portion of people have little to no idea why they are buying something outside of the idea that someday they are going to be rich, so yes long term holders too are gambling a lot of times.  You seem to have been here a long time.  Can we not agree that people buy crypto in which they just hope it goes up?  If you ask them why I would reckon some would have no idea what they bought other than the drivel they read in one of the [ann] threads.  Throwing your money at that I would consider a gamble, whatever their motives might be.  I think we can agree on that right?

Now you are starting to see the light

That gamblers in trading are not inherent to just short-term trading. You seem to accept the fact that they are also present among longer-term traders. Now you have to make the next logical step and understand that the majority of people can't be losing all the time as it is against human psychology and people's ego (apart from die-hard masochists and their likes, of course). But short-term trading is where this becomes evident and pretty fast at that. Then you've got to realize that gamblers can't possibly be the majority of people engaged in the short-term trading. They come and go, and if they don't quit, they go to longer terms and there they accumulate

I never said longer term trading isn't gambling.  I dont understand your position

What's wrong with understanding my position?

I think I made it abundantly clear. If all trading is sort of gambling (that remains to be seen, though), then short-term trading (contrary to the public opinion, intuitive thinking and gut feelings) is most likely a form of trading which has the least "gambling" component in it for the reasons stated and explained in the OP. I hope I won't have to reiterate them here all over again

In short no one knows if bitcoin will be higher or lower on Saturday, therefore making it a gamble.  Some people use certain methods to narrow down the gamble but its gambling

I guess you may want to revise your understanding of what gambling really is. If you are making decisions on some logical premises or factual information (read, your decisions are not totally at random), this is not gambling even if no one knows what the price of Bitcoin will be on Saturday, whether it will exist at all by the weekend, or even whether you will be proved wrong most of the time

That seems to be the part you are missing in your reasoning

Just read the last part, so if team A wins 70% of their games when played in the rain, if I bet on them to win the next game it isn't gambling because I'm making a decision on a logical premise

Cambridge might want to have a word with you:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/amp/english/gamble&ved=2ahUKEwjp1YP-9OPiAhUs1VkKHbfmBigQFjAIegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw1oRML0LuLTjzUIRKVD97MB&ampcf=1&cshid=1560343998535

[ryzaadit]

The option pools make me confused, I think short trader could be Survivor or Losers. Survivor its for everyone who does a trade using technical analysis or fundamental, then he will get a good entry or exit. The loser its for the people doing a trade without have some knowledge, just like a gamble but we call it "Loser" they will always enter the market because of fomo.

[Gozie51]

The popular opinion has it that short-term traders are essentially gamblers.

I think short term traders are the one that take the highest risk because within a very short minute, the market can consume their holding and goes back on because of the high volatility of cryptocurrency.

[iMark]

I really think that short term traders have a little risk in not making their targets because of the range of their trading points, Yes this still count as gambling but with a little risk involved, And even though they are basing their assumptions on the previous market flow there is a high chance in winning by taking that chance than to do a long term trading.

You assume like gambling, but you think it has a low risk, I think gambling have a big risk, isnt it?
I think short term has a considerable risk depending on the trader's skills. a trader must have a quick choice right? when the price falls they have to determine it quickly, mostly cutlose. that's why you have to analyze it so to avoid making mistakes like that

[wheelz1200]

I really think that short term traders have a little risk in not making their targets because of the range of their trading points, Yes this still count as gambling but with a little risk involved, And even though they are basing their assumptions on the previous market flow there is a high chance in winning by taking that chance than to do a long term trading.

You assume like gambling, but you think it has a low risk, I think gambling have a big risk, isnt it?
I think short term has a considerable risk depending on the trader's skills. a trader must have a quick choice right? when the price falls they have to determine it quickly, mostly cutlose. that's why you have to analyze it so to avoid making mistakes like that

Agreed, I dont know if a single market where short term buys, investments, gambles, whatever you want to call it has reduced risk.  The shorter the time frame, the higher the volatility, i.e. risk.  It's not debateable

[deisik]

I guess you may want to revise your understanding of what gambling really is. If you are making decisions on some logical premises or factual information (read, your decisions are not totally at random), this is not gambling even if no one knows what the price of Bitcoin will be on Saturday, whether it will exist at all by the weekend, or even whether you will be proved wrong most of the time

That seems to be the part you are missing in your reasoning

So you can accurately tell if the price of bitcoin will be higher or lower in 2 weeks versus if bitcoin will be higher or lower over the long term

As the saying goes, you can take a horse to water but you can't make him drink. I can show you the direction but I can't make you see the point. I can't accurately tell what the price of Bitcoin will be in 2 weeks (or whatever), but that doesn't mean that I will be gambling on it. If I toss a coin (not necessarily bitcoin, though) and make a trading decision based on the outcome or just make a wild guess about the future price, that will be gambling (but if I'm an expert trader, the latter wouldn't count). Anything else which involves a calculated decision (or an educated guess if you please) won't be

Will answer other interesting posts later

[STT]

However you are not trading against the exchange you are trading against other traders. And they take your short when you go long and vice versa.

Arguably the investors and users of BTC are the real movers of price and traders are sidelined vs that slower but stronger trend, whichever side bullish or bearish.

I take the BTC price right now as being outside its daily trend since April, it was an accelerated trend and should have sold off a bit more then it has.   Doesnt matter, we came out of the trend and mostly went sideways and now price is up.  Doesnt make any sense to me apart from the fact that the market has enough demand to raise sell order pricing, it could be natural demand or speculators and its hard to tell.   It is most close to gambling as there is too many unknown factors.

At best trading is a form of hedging a long term interest and a way to gain either way on price moves.



All I can make out right now short term is that is within a rough box like area trading up and down.   Maybe I misjudged and 8200 is the correct place to be short, I thought 8000 was a decent bet and I did close out a short in profit on that basis however it didnt gain much

[wheelz1200]

I guess you may want to revise your understanding of what gambling really is. If you are making decisions on some logical premises or factual information (read, your decisions are not totally at random), this is not gambling even if no one knows what the price of Bitcoin will be on Saturday, whether it will exist at all by the weekend, or even whether you will be proved wrong most of the time

That seems to be the part you are missing in your reasoning

So you can accurately tell if the price of bitcoin will be higher or lower in 2 weeks versus if bitcoin will be higher or lower over the long term

As the saying goes, you can take a horse to water but you can't make him drink.

I was thinking the same thing

[wheelz1200]

I guess you may want to revise your understanding of what gambling really is. If you are making decisions on some logical premises or factual information (read, your decisions are not totally at random), this is not gambling even if no one knows what the price of Bitcoin will be on Saturday, whether it will exist at all by the weekend, or even whether you will be proved wrong most of the time

That seems to be the part you are missing in your reasoning

So you can accurately tell if the price of bitcoin will be higher or lower in 2 weeks versus if bitcoin will be higher or lower over the long term

As the saying goes, you can take a horse to water but you can't make him drink. I can show you the direction but I can't make you see the point. I can't accurately tell what the price of Bitcoin will be in 2 weeks (or whatever), but that doesn't mean that I will be gambling on it. If I toss a coin (not necessarily bitcoin, though) and make a trading decision based on the outcome or just make a wild guess about the future price, that will be gambling (but if I'm an expert trader, the latter wouldn't count). Anything else which involves a calculated decision (or an educated guess if you please) won't be

Will answer other interesting posts later

Since some sports betters are experts or make educated guesses on their bets that means they aren't gambling?  Are you disputing the actual definition of gambling now 

[figmentofmyass]

The popular opinion has it that short-term traders are essentially gamblers. But that's simply not possible due to the very nature of short-term trading as losses in this trading setup are set to accumulate quickly, so whoever tries it and fails has to wind up and do that fast unless he loses all and is stopped by his empty stomach. In this way, short-term trading brutally weeds out those who can't earn consistently in the long run. It is a type of natural selection where short-term traders are selected to be successful if they are to remain in the game, and this selection works fast at that

you're just pointing out that most day traders lose money. sure a small proportion of them are successful. but the same is true for gamblers.

On the other hand, long-term traders have the option of turning into long-term holders and ultimately into bag holders if they are unable to earn consistently long term. Ironically, it is also kind of natural selection, though in this case in works in reverse, i.e. it is a negative selection which essentially favors losers, even though it takes years to reveal itself. Considering these two types of selection and their effects on different strata of traders, we have to conclude that the percentage of successful short-term traders should be way higher than among other types of traders

your conclusion doesn't follow from your premise. you're only talking about bagholders---people who ignore all the rules of trading and don't cut their losses. your comparing "short term traders" to "bagholders", not "short term traders" to "long term traders".

[klaaas]

However you are not trading against the exchange you are trading against other traders.

Just a side note, We are never sure if we are not against the house while trading  https://themerkle.com/what-is-the-willy-bitcoin-trading-bot/

or just make a wild guess about the future price, that will be gambling (but if I'm an expert trader, the latter wouldn't count). Anything else which involves a calculated decision (or an educated guess if you please) won't be

That defines the decision when or where to place the trade, a well calculated trade still carries a risk. The unknown factor is the gamble that you take with placing the trade.