World War 2, part (b)

[aminorex]

A good way to get a head of future market moves is to game out important scenarios, i.e. ones which result in market moves.  I think WW2b is an important scenario.  Here's my WW2b scenario:  

Occupied Crimea votes independence from Ukraine.  
Ukraine mobilizes military in eastern Ukraine.  
Putin invades eastern Ukraine to "protect ethnic Russians".  
Ukrainian military retreats.  
NATO enters Ukraine.  
Ukraine military re-enters eastern Ukraine.  
Putin escalates in eastern Ukraine.  
Ukraine military retreats.  
NATO in force.  
NATO - Russian air conflict, Russia suffers loses.
NATO - Russian ground conflict, NATO suffers loses.  
NATO uses tactical nukes.  
Putin nukes New York.

How does this scenario affect Bitcoin?

Are there scenarios in Transdniestra or the Baltics which are more likely to escalate than the more narrowly focused conflict in Ukraine?

[El Dude]

Currencies would collapse , only people in bitcoin/litecoin gold and silver would be able to preserve their wealth.

[galbros]

The West has shown no inclination to fight, so I think your event chain breaks down pretty quickly.  But as World War I showed, if nations do want to fight the excuse can come from the most minor of events.

I do agree that it NYC gets nuked, it is pretty bad for most conventional currencies and probably curtains for the USD as the dominant reserve currency.

[jamesc760]

Putin is Evil but not stupid. He knows he can get away with annexing Crimea, there's nothing the West can do about it. Ukraine has always been under Russia/Soviet's Sphere of Influence. It's their backyard/frontyard/sideyard or whatever. Ordinary people be damned. Ordinary people are stupid, have you heard that majority of Russian people are supporting their dictator right now?

[crypto2k]

A good way to get a head of future market moves is to game out important scenarios, i.e. ones which result in market moves.  I think WW2b is an important scenario.  Here's my WW2b scenario:  

Occupied Crimea votes independence from Ukraine.  
Ukraine mobilizes military in eastern Ukraine.  
Putin invades eastern Ukraine to "protect ethnic Russians".  
Ukrainian military retreats.  
NATO enters Ukraine.  
Ukraine military re-enters eastern Ukraine.  
Putin escalates in eastern Ukraine.  
Ukraine military retreats.  
NATO in force.  
NATO - Russian air conflict, Russia suffers loses.
NATO - Russian ground conflict, NATO suffers loses.  
NATO uses tactical nukes.  
Putin nukes New York.

How does this scenario affect Bitcoin?

Are there scenarios in Transdniestra or the Baltics which are more likely to escalate than the more narrowly focused conflict in Ukraine?

WWII??? Its WWIII!! 

[Chalkbot]

Putin is Evil but not stupid. He knows he can get away with annexing Crimea, there's nothing the West can do about it. Ukraine has always been under Russia/Soviet's Sphere of Influence. It's their backyard/frontyard/sideyard or whatever. Ordinary people be damned. Ordinary people are stupid, have you heard that majority of Russian people are supporting their dictator right now?

james, can you explain to me the motivations of the US and Russia's involvement in this situation? I've so far had a hard time wrapping my head around that part. Your post indicates a perception of Putin acting out of greed (a trait of being evil) and I just want to know how it's different from what everyone else is doing there.

[ArticMine]

A good way to get a head of future market moves is to game out important scenarios, i.e. ones which result in market moves.  I think WW2b is an important scenario.  Here's my WW2b scenario:  

Occupied Crimea votes independence from Ukraine.  
Ukraine mobilizes military in eastern Ukraine.  
Putin invades eastern Ukraine to "protect ethnic Russians".  
Ukrainian military retreats.  
NATO enters Ukraine.  
Ukraine military re-enters eastern Ukraine.  
Putin escalates in eastern Ukraine.  
Ukraine military retreats.  
NATO in force.  
NATO - Russian air conflict, Russia suffers loses.
NATO - Russian ground conflict, NATO suffers loses.  
NATO uses tactical nukes.  
Putin nukes New York.

How does this scenario affect Bitcoin?

Are there scenarios in Transdniestra or the Baltics which are more likely to escalate than the more narrowly focused conflict in Ukraine?

WWII??? Its WWIII!! 

Yes. This is a WWIII scenario. As for Bitcoin the question then becomes how many nodes do you have to nuke in order to knock out the entire network?

[MatTheCat]

Currencies would collapse , only people in bitcoin/litecoin gold and silver would be able to preserve their wealth.

Deary me.  

If the USD collapsed, not that it is going to anytime soon but if it did, then Bitcoin/Litecoin, and all the other junk coins would be worth exactly their weight in gold. Nothing. Bitcoin's value is directly related to their rate of interchangeability to government backed currencies.

[ArticMine]

Currencies would collapse , only people in bitcoin/litecoin gold and silver would be able to preserve their wealth.

Deary me.  

If the USD collapsed, not that it is going to anytime soon but if it did, then Bitcoin/Litecoin, and all the other junk coins would be worth exactly their weight in gold. Nothing. Bitcoin's value is directly related to their rate of interchangeability to government backed currencies.

Not true. Bitcoin is and has been traded in terms of gold.

Edit: A collapse of the USD could very easily lead in an increase in the value of Bitcoin in terms of gold.

[MatTheCat]

Not true. Bitcoin is and has been traded in terms of gold.

Yeah whatever.

Believe whatever makes you feel good m8.

[GigaCoin]

Nothing will happen, not a world war. Maybe market reactions but that's about it.

And lot of politians cursing one another 

[aminorex]

Putin is Evil but not stupid. He knows he can get away with annexing Crimea, there's nothing the West can do about it. Ukraine has always been under Russia/Soviet's Sphere of Influence. It's their backyard/frontyard/sideyard or whatever. Ordinary people be damned. Ordinary people are stupid, have you heard that majority of Russian people are supporting their dictator right now?

james, can you explain to me the motivations of the US and Russia's involvement in this situation? I've so far had a hard time wrapping my head around that part. Your post indicates a perception of Putin acting out of greed (a trait of being evil) and I just want to know how it's different from what everyone else is doing there.

Putin is in a fight for his ego.  His propaganda reveals his self-image.  To maintain his identity, he must not back down, must out-game all opponents, and make continual gains.  This is perfectly aligned with his domestic political requirements.  Expanding empire is good for the oligarchs he represents and manages, and good for his popular support.  His most obvious weakness:  Dependence on internal backers, whose interests may change skew to his own.  We have a mafioso in power in Russia.  He's more like Don Corleone than Hitler, but there are similarities to both.

Russian invasion of Ukraine at SOME level will not be tolerated by NATO.  He has seized Abkhazia and South Ossetia.  He has seized Transdneistra.  He has seized Crimea.  If he seizes Ukraine it seems clear he will seize the Baltic States.  Hell, why not Finland?  Why not assimilate Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan?  We've been down this road before.  Poland in WW2 had its borders guaranteed by UK.  Ukraine today had its borders guaranteed by US UK and RU.  If Russia stays in Ukraine, Ukraine will re-arm nuclear.  NATO does not want that, at least not unless Ukraine is both stable and part of NATO.  Putin would rather invade Ukraine entire than invade part and face a nuclear Ukraine in 2 years time.

To say there is nothing the west can do about it seems very questionable to me.  Putin can be removed.  Economic measures can be taken which would beggar Russia, causing him to be deposed.  Military action can be taken to strengthen Ukraine.  Political action can be taken, to incorporate Ukraine into NATO, or offer that as a chip to bargain against Crimea.  In a political game, ground truth is critical.  Putin is motivated to grab as much as he can before coming to the bargaining table.  If he does that badly, there will be copious blood.  The west has strong incentives to stop him before he gains more power, more momentum, and more bargaining chips.  In fact, given his history, it seems clear to me at least that he must be punished.  Some chips must be removed from his kitty, or he will just do it again on another front.

[MatTheCat]

Putin is in a fight for his ego.  His propaganda reveals his self-image.  To maintain his identity, he must not back down, must out-game all opponents, and make continual gains.  This is perfectly aligned with his domestic political requirements.  Expanding empire is good for the oligarchs he represents and manages, and good for his popular support.  His most obvious weakness:  Dependence on internal backers, whose interests may change skew to his own.  We have a mafioso in power in Russia.  He's more like Don Corleone than Hitler, but there are similarities to both.

Russian invasion of Ukraine at SOME level will not be tolerated by NATO.  He has seized Abkhazia and South Ossetia.  He has seized Transdneistra.  He has seized Crimea.  If he seizes Ukraine it seems clear he will seize the Baltic States.  Hell, why not Finland?  Why not assimilate Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan?  We've been down this road before.  Poland in WW2 had its borders guaranteed by UK.  Ukraine today had its borders guaranteed by US UK and RU.  If Russia stays in Ukraine, Ukraine will re-arm nuclear.  NATO does not want that, at least not unless Ukraine is both stable and part of NATO.  Putin would rather invade Ukraine entire than invade part and face a nuclear Ukraine in 2 years time.

To say there is nothing the west can do about it seems very questionable to me.  Putin can be removed.  Economic measures can be taken which would beggar Russia, causing him to be deposed.  Military action can be taken to strengthen Ukraine.  Political action can be taken, to incorporate Ukraine into NATO, or offer that as a chip to bargain against Crimea.  In a political game, ground truth is critical.  Putin is motivated to grab as much as he can before coming to the bargaining table.  If he does that badly, there will be copious blood.  The west has strong incentives to stop him before he gains more power, more momentum, and more bargaining chips.  In fact, given his history, it seems clear to me at least that he must be punished.  Some chips must be removed from his kitty, or he will just do it again on another front.

Where are you from and what sort of geopolitical disneyland are you living in?

The US lead West, have been baiting China and Russia for years and will continue to do so. Lately they have been pushing things a little too far and Putin isn't standing for it. All these recent squabbles in Russia's backyard involve muscling in on markets and gaining a strategic foothold right on Russia's doorstep. Can you see why Putin or any other Russian leader (who hasn't sold out to the West) might have a problem with a great big belt of NATO missile bases going up right along their borders? NATO cannot afford to engage Russia in a out and out military conflict. Russia needs to be brought to heel or at least pushed into a strategic and economic stalemate position. The ultimate end goal is to be in a position to crush China, who will grow to be the US's number 1 competitor for world resources and power. A strong Russia stands in the way of a WW3 scenario. For this reason, the Russian bear needs to be driven into it's cage, and held there.

oh and btw, just sit back and watch how Russia annex the Crimea and NATO does fuck all except blow their trumpet and wag their fingers. If the west pushes for sanctions against Russia, then Russia can also badly hurt the West, especially so the EU, and the EU won't like the US pushing for sanctions that will indirectly damage them. The US have pushed the boat out too far on this one, and will have to take a slap in the face with humility, as Russia does whatever it wants.

[av123]

Putin is Evil but not stupid. He knows he can get away with annexing Crimea, there's nothing the West can do about it. Ukraine has always been under Russia/Soviet's Sphere of Influence. It's their backyard/frontyard/sideyard or whatever. Ordinary people be damned. Ordinary people are stupid, have you heard that majority of Russian people are supporting their dictator right now?

james, can you explain to me the motivations of the US and Russia's involvement in this situation? I've so far had a hard time wrapping my head around that part. Your post indicates a perception of Putin acting out of greed (a trait of being evil) and I just want to know how it's different from what everyone else is doing there.

I am not James but I can try to explain Putin's motivation.

The Crimea was part of the Russian empire for hundreds of years and part of the Soviet Union after that. It wasn't until 1954 that Khruschev made it part of the Ukranian S.S.R.

After the break up of the Soviet Union, the now independent country of Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapon arsenal and the Russian navy was allowed to keep using its base in Sevastopol on the Black Sea (in Crimea).

Thereafter, NATO expanded to include certain Eastern European countries.

Ukraine has been split between the western Ukranian part of the country which is majority ethnic Ukranian and Ukranian nationalist and southern/eastern Ukraine which is majority Russian ethnicity in many areas and more pro Russia.

Putin's actions may be based on mistrust of the west/the new government that just took power in Kiev as well as a desire to protect Russia's interests in the Crimea. A desire to look strong also probably plays well on the home front. I don't think all out war is likely however.

[seljo]

I have a less violent scenario imagine Level 3 communications turns off all thier operations for a month how would that impact NATO and BTC?

[UnDerDoG81]

Putin Obama is Evil...

corrected

EDIT: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2486809/New-book-claims-President-Obama-bragged-aides-using-drone-strikes.html

Putin did not kill even 1 human since he is president and saved Syria from another bloody american invasion with an false flag action.

[Brassguy]

Putin is in a fight for his ego.  His propaganda reveals his self-image.  To maintain his identity, he must not back down, must out-game all opponents, and make continual gains.  This is perfectly aligned with his domestic political requirements.  Expanding empire is good for the oligarchs he represents and manages, and good for his popular support.  His most obvious weakness:  Dependence on internal backers, whose interests may change skew to his own.  We have a mafioso in power in Russia.  He's more like Don Corleone than Hitler, but there are similarities to both.

Russian invasion of Ukraine at SOME level will not be tolerated by NATO.  He has seized Abkhazia and South Ossetia.  He has seized Transdneistra.  He has seized Crimea.  If he seizes Ukraine it seems clear he will seize the Baltic States.  Hell, why not Finland?  Why not assimilate Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan?  We've been down this road before.  Poland in WW2 had its borders guaranteed by UK.  Ukraine today had its borders guaranteed by US UK and RU.  If Russia stays in Ukraine, Ukraine will re-arm nuclear.  NATO does not want that, at least not unless Ukraine is both stable and part of NATO.  Putin would rather invade Ukraine entire than invade part and face a nuclear Ukraine in 2 years time.

To say there is nothing the west can do about it seems very questionable to me.  Putin can be removed.  Economic measures can be taken which would beggar Russia, causing him to be deposed.  Military action can be taken to strengthen Ukraine.  Political action can be taken, to incorporate Ukraine into NATO, or offer that as a chip to bargain against Crimea.  In a political game, ground truth is critical.  Putin is motivated to grab as much as he can before coming to the bargaining table.  If he does that badly, there will be copious blood.  The west has strong incentives to stop him before he gains more power, more momentum, and more bargaining chips.  In fact, given his history, it seems clear to me at least that he must be punished.  Some chips must be removed from his kitty, or he will just do it again on another front.

Where are you from and what sort of geopolitical disneyland are you living in?

The US lead West, have been baiting China and Russia for years and will continue to do so. Lately they have been pushing things a little too far and Putin isn't standing for it. All these recent squabbles in Russia's backyard involve muscling in on markets and gaining a strategic foothold right on Russia's doorstep. Can you see why Putin or any other Russian leader (who hasn't sold out to the West) might have a problem with a great big belt of NATO missile bases going up right along their borders? NATO cannot afford to engage Russia in a out and out military conflict. Russia needs to be brought to heel or at least pushed into a strategic and economic stalemate position. The ultimate end goal is to be in a position to crush China, who will grow to be the US's number 1 competitor for world resources and power. A strong Russia stands in the way of a WW3 scenario. For this reason, the Russian bear needs to be driven into it's cage, and held there.

oh and btw, just sit back and watch how Russia annex the Crimea and NATO does fuck all except blow their trumpet and wag their fingers. If the west pushes for sanctions against Russia, then Russia can also badly hurt the West, especially so the EU, and the EU won't like the US pushing for sanctions that will indirectly damage them. The US have pushed the boat out too far on this one, and will have to take a slap in the face with humility, as Russia does whatever it wants.

Mat has the most probable view on this issue and I have to agree. Nato will bitch and moan and US will threaten sanctions, etc.... but in the end Putin will annex Crimea and no one will stop it. No sanctions will be imposed and no western military will directly intervene. If anyone lifts a finger, Europe will have zero natural gas... because it is Russia, through the Ukrainian pipeline, that supplies them.

[aminorex]

Putin did not kill even 1 human since he is president ...

This is well past the bounds of delusional.

[anu]

Putin Obama is Evil...

corrected

EDIT: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2486809/New-book-claims-President-Obama-bragged-aides-using-drone-strikes.html

Putin did not kill even 1 human since he is president and saved Syria from another bloody american invasion with an false flag action.

Souvenir from Georgia:

[aminorex]

Nato will bitch and moan and US will threaten sanctions, etc.... but in the end Putin will annex Crimea and no one will stop it. No sanctions will be imposed and no western military will directly intervene. If anyone lifts a finger, Europe will have zero natural gas... because it is Russia, through the Ukrainian pipeline, that supplies them.

Europe can live without Russian trade.   Russia starves without European trade.  Europe has alternative sources of natural gas, and alternative sources of energy other than gas.  Russia can't export gas in quantity except through Europe.  Not yet.

Annexing Crimea guarantees nuclear Ukraine unless the government can be destabilized and subverted, or the nation invaded whole.  Putin will not accept nuclear Ukraine.  Europe will not accept Russian puppet or colony Ukraine.
When all political alternatives fail, war results.