World War 2, part (b)

[niothor]

I think it's a matter of, what is possible?

The US can't afford a major war. EU doesn't have enough military might for any one country or even a small group of them to throw their weight around. China is unlikely to strike out but too big to take over. Any one of the big players (US, China, Russia) makes a move and they become vulnerable to at least one of the others.

It's a stalemate with each region doing whatever it wants within its own borders and lots of huffing and puffing across phone lines and through emails.

Just remember, we were always at war with Eurasia.

You should revise that.
Just because Europe is at peace right now , it doesn't mean it's defenseless.


Rank      Country   Spending ($)[4][5]    % of GDP   Year of data
—      World total   1,756,000,000,000   2.5%   2012
—   NATO   NATO   990,932,000,000   2.5%   2012
1   United States   United States   682,478,000,000   4.4%   2012
—   European Union   European Union   274,213,000,000   1.7%   2012
2   China   People's Republic of China   166,107,000,000   2.1%   2012
3   Russia   Russia                    90,749,000,000   4.4%   2012

But really...
Putin nukes New York and we're concern about bitcoin?

It's not strictly a matter of how many guns we have. If that was the case the US would just stomp all over the world. Armies are funded by national economies, and they are crumbling. We simply can not afford to go to war, any of us. Not even if europe was one unit, which is far from the case.

Nobody can afford a full war and keep everything as usual at home.
But that's now how war is being fought. Changes will be made immediately and budgets won't be the same.

Of course numbers don't matter but let's not forget on what those money are spent.
Russia has a mandatory conscription for 12 months , insane amounts of money spent or recruits that won't make a difference in a real war.
I know what kind of soldiers this mandatory conscription makes (my country had this too) and how useless and money waster that is.

My opinion is that there will be no winner but the loser will be Russia.

[solarflare]

But really...
Putin nukes New York and we're concern about bitcoin?

Yeah... it seems most people in this thread live in a bunker.
When I hear about Russian nukes I don't think about bitcoin, I think about flying away from the big cities.

Looking at the map of Europe...where the hell is there a safe spot?
And there won't be too much flying with a war on.

1. Not everyone lives in Europe (I don't)
2. In case you're not aware, it is possible to leave Europe (look at a map)
3. I didn't mean flying literally (even though that would be the best way to flee)

[pungopete468]

Is there anybody still alive today who remembers when wars were fought between nations, not between banks? So much is tied to this currency war, it's sickening...

I don't even think that either outcome in Ukraine would matter. The world is clearly divided and both sides are dying; the only way to survive is to destroy the other and assimilate whatever resources remain. The fiat system can only "work" when it's globally uncontested, only one group can be allowed to rule. There needs to be zero international accountability for printing money and everybody knows it. The world isn't big enough for 2 big bank cartels...

It doesn't take a PhD to look at current world events and draw the conclusion that WW3 is inevitable. If not today; then another day... It's simply a matter of time, and there is no limit to what these bankers would do to make it happen. There's no doubt in my mind that they would be willing to kill any number of their own innocent countrymen just to show the people an enemy to rally against and prove that war is justified.

Technology changed the world too quickly and it wasn't according to plan. Without the explosive popularity of social media, we would probably be engrossed by global war already. The worst part is that there's not enough desire to prevent it from happening. People don't want transparency, the threat of proving that we've been taken advantage of is harder to pallet then keeping the blinders on without asking too many questions.

We can't even get a copy of Obamas birth certificate to verify his eligibility for Presidency...

Just stock up on non perishable foods and survival gear while you can, ARDUINO boards, servo motors, a diverse library of the various open-source software projects available today, and don't forget plenty of scrap electronics of all types. I think there's a good chance that many of us here would be able to find a use for these things to improve our quality of living when combined in interesting ways...

[aminorex]

ARDUINO boards, servo motors, a diverse library of the various open-source software projects available today, and don't forget plenty of scrap electronics of all types.

And stick them all in a metal box.  In case of a continent-scale EMP, you're the man.  A nice solar flare might make you rich.  Very tan perhaps, but rich.

[niothor]

ARDUINO boards, servo motors, a diverse library of the various open-source software projects available today, and don't forget plenty of scrap electronics of all types.

And stick them all in a metal box.  In case of a continent-scale EMP, you're the man.  A nice solar flare might make you rich.  Very tan perhaps, but rich.

Yeah , put also a few Iphone7S , they might get useful as lanterns after a nuke.

[NotLambchop]

What you need is these babies...



EMP & armageddon-proof

[spleen]

Khodorkovsky the embezzler? I doubt he'd be much of an improvement.

I don't buy into this concept of overlooking the misdeeds of any nation because 'what the others did was way worse'. The reality is that in recent times the portrayal of Russia and the manner in which the West has engaged with it have been provocative and calculated to say the least. I don't think Putin has handled it too badly thus far.

[BidcoinBernd]

A good way to get a head of future market moves is to game out important scenarios, i.e. ones which result in market moves.  I think WW2b is an important scenario.  Here's my WW2b scenario:  

Occupied Crimea votes independence from Ukraine.  
Ukraine mobilizes military in eastern Ukraine.  
Putin invades eastern Ukraine to "protect ethnic Russians".  
Ukrainian military retreats.  
NATO enters Ukraine.  
Ukraine military re-enters eastern Ukraine.  
Putin escalates in eastern Ukraine.  
Ukraine military retreats.  
NATO in force.  
NATO - Russian air conflict, Russia suffers loses.
NATO - Russian ground conflict, NATO suffers loses.  
NATO uses tactical nukes.  
Putin nukes New York.

How does this scenario affect Bitcoin?

Are there scenarios in Transdniestra or the Baltics which are more likely to escalate than the more narrowly focused conflict in Ukraine?

If putin nukes new york the us will drop multiple nukes on russia and russia will drop even more nukes on the usa.
The major submarine internet cables would be destroyed and as a result the internet would split in a few large chunks forcing the blockchain to fork.
The value of bitcoin would drop by 99,99% and you wish you had invested in gold.

[niothor]

A good way to get a head of future market moves is to game out important scenarios, i.e. ones which result in market moves.  I think WW2b is an important scenario.  Here's my WW2b scenario:  

Occupied Crimea votes independence from Ukraine.  
Ukraine mobilizes military in eastern Ukraine.  
Putin invades eastern Ukraine to "protect ethnic Russians".  
Ukrainian military retreats.  
NATO enters Ukraine.  
Ukraine military re-enters eastern Ukraine.  
Putin escalates in eastern Ukraine.  
Ukraine military retreats.  
NATO in force.  
NATO - Russian air conflict, Russia suffers loses.
NATO - Russian ground conflict, NATO suffers loses.  
NATO uses tactical nukes.  
Putin nukes New York.

How does this scenario affect Bitcoin?

Are there scenarios in Transdniestra or the Baltics which are more likely to escalate than the more narrowly focused conflict in Ukraine?

If putin nukes new york the us will drop multiple nukes on russia and russia will drop even more nukes on the usa.
The major submarine internet cables would be destroyed and as a result the internet would split in a few large chunks forcing the blockchain to fork.
The value of bitcoin would drop by 99,99% and you wish you had invested in gold.

I think you would first wish you had invested in a bunker.

[aminorex]

step 3 would be next.

[frobley]

http://www.globalresearch.ca/ukraines-gold-reserves-secretely-flown-out-and-confiscated-by-the-new-york-federal-reserve
I don't know about the credibility of this site - orders to fill? I can't help imagining a crypto backed by gold somewhere, sometime..
I think also the division of ukraine had already been agreed but would require the will of the people, hence the usual, now very tired media circus.

[MatTheCat]

Khodorkovsky the embezzler? I doubt he'd be much of an improvement.

I don't buy into this concept of overlooking the misdeeds of any nation because 'what the others did was way worse'. The reality is that in recent times the portrayal of Russia and the manner in which the West has engaged with it have been provocative and calculated to say the least. I don't think Putin has handled it too badly thus far.

Ah, but Khodorkovsky was a thief who handed over lots of Russia's natural wealth to wealthy western entities. He was a good thief. He gave us (our masters) their 'fair share' which is perhaps why he is getting a good write up in some western media outlets, certainly the ones that af-newbie is reading anyhow.

I really despair at the still existing level of ignorance and stupidity of the general public when it comes to foreign affairs and policy. Although to be honest, I think the majority of the full retard posts I am reading on here is coming from US based members.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/ukraines-gold-reserves-secretely-flown-out-and-confiscated-by-the-new-york-federal-reserve
I don't know about the credibility of this site - orders to fill? I can't help imagining a crypto backed by gold somewhere, sometime..
I think also the division of ukraine had already been agreed but would require the will of the people, hence the usual, now very tired media circus.

Why would the federal reserve have any former soviet block nation's gold? I can't imagine Joe Stalin approving of that one post WW2.

Edit: Just read it, don't believe it. Classic sensationalist and biased journalistic get out clause. Quoting a third source.

NEWSFLASH! NATO NATIONS WILL NOT TOLERATE CRAZED WAR MONGER PUTIN. USA TO LEAD TASK FORCE TO GO AND KICK PUTIN'S ASS! (according to aminorex, a testosterone fuelled gung-ho forum idiot incapable of informed and rational thought)

[niothor]

^^^ Indeed , run for the hills , or the bunkers.
No war will happen , and now now at least.

[howardb]

I for one have a much simpler view on all of this:

a) The west/NATO will not go anywhere near this, no matter what russia does to crimea or Ukraine, it's simply not worth it now (No offence Ukraine).

b) Western thinking on the degree to which Russia/Putin can gradually be brought into the fold of the trading democratised world has been radically reversed by these actions.

c) We won't cut our nose to spite our face with massive immediate sanctions, simply because Europe is overly dependant on Russian gas, and cannot stomach any tit for tat sanctions with Russian gas (yet!).

d) The west in general will implement a much longer term strategy to reduce the energy dependance on russia, THEN switch to the very successfull Regan strategy of breaking them financially with either arms races or sanctions. This is already happening to some degree with massive and accelerating flight of capital and international investment from Russia. The Ruble is now a broken currency.

e) Third strike! (Stalin,Cold War, Ukraine) Once broken, it will be 50 years (A generations memory) before anyone even re-considers Russia as fit to rejoin the civilised world again.

[Ibian]

e) Third strike! (Stalin,Cold War, Ukraine) Once broken, it will be 50 years before anyone even re-considers Russia as fit to rejoin the civilised world again.

I thought this part was amusing. Mayhap Russia feels that the west is not fit to join the civilized part of the world. Personally, I have not considered the west a civilized place for some time. Other than that general agreement with your post.

[howardb]

e) Third strike! (Stalin,Cold War, Ukraine) Once broken, it will be 50 years before anyone even re-considers Russia as fit to rejoin the civilised world again.

I thought this part was amusing. Mayhap Russia feels that the west is not fit to join the civilized part of the world. Personally, I have not considered the west a civilized place for some time. Other than that general agreement with your post.

Lol, depends how far west you go! personally I consider this green and pleasent land (England) pretty civilised by world standards. My wife and I did joke though, that perhaps we should invite Ukraine to take Scotlands place in the United Kingdom! (Especially since they seem to speak better English!)

[MatTheCat]

I for one have a much simpler view on all of this:

a) The west/NATO will not go anywhere near this, no matter what russia does to crimea or Ukraine, it's simply not worth it now (No offence Ukraine).

b) Western thinking on the degree to which Russia/Putin can gradually be brought into the fold of the trading democratised world has been radically reversed by these actions.

c) We won't cut our nose to spite our face with massive immediate sanctions, simply because Europe is overly dependant on Russian gas, and cannot stomach any tit for tat sanctions with gas (yet).

d) The west in general will implement a much longer term strategy to reduce the energy dependance on russia, THEN switch to the very successfull Regan strategy of breaking them financially with either arms races or sanctions. This is already happening to some degree with massive and accelerating flight of capital and international investment from Russia, Ruble is a broken currency.

e) Third strike! Once broken, it will be 50 years before anyone even re-considers Russia as fit to rejoin the civilised world again.

What is with the 'we' and the 'our'? You think the whole population of the West is in this together? You think that the Western established powers, who have long been in a process of baiting Russia and Putin, ever since he put a stop to the mass plunder of Russian resources, give a flying fk about you or your well being? Are you getting any kick backs from any business deals done by tying the Ukrainian economy up with Western finance? Are your investments in the US weapons industry in line for a big dividend pay out if/when Ukraine signs up to get a series of NATO missile bases along it's borders with Russia?

If you are indeed gaining in some way thanks to US/NATO's constant baiting of Russia and China and their direct and indirect meddling within their spheres of influences, bringing the whole world closer and closer to a WW3 scenario; then my apologies, perhaps you do have the slightest clue about wtf is going, and are just a bit of an evil cunt. More likely however, is that you just don't really have much of clue and perhaps you need to take some lessons in geo-politics.

Perhaps Putin doesn't want to be 'brought into the fold of Western democratised world', because that generally means giving up national sovereignty and having your economy and resources exploited by the Western establishment.

On the otherhand, it is at least refreshing to see that you at least recognise that any talk of sanctions was as I previously stated, always going to be nothing more than trumpet blowing and general tough talk, whilst the West walks the walk in the complete opposite direction of any confrontation with Putin, whilst he does what the fuck he wants when it comes to business in his own backyard. 21 travel bans for some Russian officials involved in organising Crimean elections....."oooh, you naughty naughty boys! don't ever do that again or we shall get very very cross indeed!"

Thank fk for Vladimir Putin. The longer he is a thorn in the side of the West the longer it is before the West can start seriously crushing China, which is the end game here and a very very dangerous one at that.

[Ibian]

e) Third strike! (Stalin,Cold War, Ukraine) Once broken, it will be 50 years before anyone even re-considers Russia as fit to rejoin the civilised world again.

I thought this part was amusing. Mayhap Russia feels that the west is not fit to join the civilized part of the world. Personally, I have not considered the west a civilized place for some time. Other than that general agreement with your post.

Lol, depends how far west you go! personally I consider this green and pleasent land (England) pretty civilised by world standards. My wife and I did joke though, that perhaps we should invite Ukraine to take Scotlands place in the United Kingdom! (Especially since they seem to speak better English!)

I hear brits are a minority in London now. Mass immigration is a sign of end times. No culture in all of recorded history has ever survived sub-replacement fertility coupled with native displacement. This is one of those cases where I would like to be wrong, so if you, or anyone, knows of a counterexample do share.

[aminorex]

No culture in all of recorded history has ever survived sub-replacement fertility coupled with native displacement. This is one of those cases where I would like to be wrong, so if you, or anyone, knows of a counterexample do share.

No culture survives a change of generations either.

The Leninists kept Marxism alive.  In so doing they killed Marxism.  The bishops and councils preserved Orthodoxy through the centuries.  In so doing, they destroyed orthodoxy.  The Khazars saved Judaism from annihilation.  In so doing, they annihilated Judaism.   

Little sense there is, in nostalgia for what you do not have the will to hold today.

[howardb]

I for one have a much simpler view on all of this:

a) The west/NATO will not go anywhere near this, no matter what russia does to crimea or Ukraine, it's simply not worth it now (No offence Ukraine).

b) Western thinking on the degree to which Russia/Putin can gradually be brought into the fold of the trading democratised world has been radically reversed by these actions.

c) We won't cut our nose to spite our face with massive immediate sanctions, simply because Europe is overly dependant on Russian gas, and cannot stomach any tit for tat sanctions with gas (yet).

d) The west in general will implement a much longer term strategy to reduce the energy dependance on russia, THEN switch to the very successfull Regan strategy of breaking them financially with either arms races or sanctions. This is already happening to some degree with massive and accelerating flight of capital and international investment from Russia, Ruble is a broken currency.

e) Third strike! Once broken, it will be 50 years before anyone even re-considers Russia as fit to rejoin the civilised world again.

What is with the 'we' and the 'our'? You think the whole population of the West is in this together? You think that the Western established powers, who have long been in a process of baiting Russia and Putin, ever since he put a stop to the mass plunder of Russian resources, give a flying fk about you or your well being? Are you getting any kick backs from any business deals done by tying the Ukrainian economy up with Western finance? Are your investments in the US weapons industry in line for a big dividend pay out if/when Ukraine signs up to get a series of NATO missile bases along it's borders with Russia?

If you are indeed gaining in some way thanks to US/NATO's constant baiting of Russia and China and their direct and indirect meddling within their spheres of influences, bringing the whole world closer and closer to a WW3 scenario; then my apologies, perhaps you do have the slightest clue about wtf is going, and are just a bit of an evil cunt. More likely however, is that you just don't really have much of clue and perhaps you need to take some lessons in geo-politics.

Perhaps Putin doesn't want to be 'brought into the fold of Western democratised world', because that generally means giving up national sovereignty and having your economy and resources exploited by the Western establishment.

On the otherhand, it is at least refreshing to see that you at least recognise that any talk of sanctions was as I previously stated, always going to be nothing more than trumpet blowing and general tough talk, whilst the West walks the walk in the complete opposite direction of any confrontation with Putin, whilst he does what the fuck he wants when it comes to business in his own backyard. 21 travel bans for some Russian officials involved in organising Crimean elections....."oooh, you naughty naughty boys! don't ever do that again or we shall get very very cross indeed!"

Thank fk for Vladimir Putin. The longer he is a thorn in the side of the West the longer it is before the West can start seriously crushing China, which is the end game here and a very very dangerous one at that.

Well I did warn you I had a much 'simpler' view of what was happening!
However, since geopolitics are a matter of (media managed) perspective, it is somewhat naive of you (and possibly me) to talk in absolutes of 'the situation'. However i've also lived in most regions of the world and spend as much time watching Russian, Japanese, French and Chinese tv as I do the BBC, and the only absolutes i've been able to distil out of all those hours are:

i.   Most of the world hates America.
ii.  Russia believes most of the world hates it, but they don't (Just Putin).
iii. Neither Russian or American politicians can be trusted to uphold international law.
iv. Every single news channel is utterly biased (including the BBC) Al Jazeera being the possible exception.
v.  North Korean news casters are funny