World War 2, part (b)

[Ibian]

No culture in all of recorded history has ever survived sub-replacement fertility coupled with native displacement. This is one of those cases where I would like to be wrong, so if you, or anyone, knows of a counterexample do share.

No culture survives a change of generations either.

The Leninists kept Marxism alive.  In so doing they killed Marxism.  The bishops and councils preserved Orthodoxy through the centuries.  In so doing, they destroyed orthodoxy.  The Khazars saved Judaism from annihilation.  In so doing, they annihilated Judaism.   

Little sense there is, in nostalgia for what you do not have the will to hold today.

You agree, in other words, but exaggerated to such a degree that it loses all meaning and, in fact, becomes something you laugh at. This is not useful.

[howardb]

e) Third strike! (Stalin,Cold War, Ukraine) Once broken, it will be 50 years before anyone even re-considers Russia as fit to rejoin the civilised world again.

I thought this part was amusing. Mayhap Russia feels that the west is not fit to join the civilized part of the world. Personally, I have not considered the west a civilized place for some time. Other than that general agreement with your post.

Lol, depends how far west you go! personally I consider this green and pleasent land (England) pretty civilised by world standards. My wife and I did joke though, that perhaps we should invite Ukraine to take Scotlands place in the United Kingdom! (Especially since they seem to speak better English!)

I hear brits are a minority in London now. Mass immigration is a sign of end times. No culture in all of recorded history has ever survived sub-replacement fertility coupled with native displacement. This is one of those cases where I would like to be wrong, so if you, or anyone, knows of a counterexample do share.

You may be right there, but one town does not a country make!
In fact I recently heard the Lord Mayor of London refer to it as 'The Capital Of The World', and as a general observation he could be right! London is like unofficial UN, it's where people of the world come to do what we all want to do in peace 'make good business' (Quoting from 3 Kings film there).

There are an awful lot of Russians in London also, and I strongly suspect with the new EU policy negotiations on Russian Visa's now being cancelled, that there will soon be an lot less! I wonder if Putin should be stepping in to protect those poor russians in London whose rights are not being upheld, perhaps russian tanks should role down the mall!

Oh and by the way, you wanted a counter example, the Brit's survived the Viking invasions/displacements, and genetic testing has shown that the original Gene pool re-asserted itself afterwards, or simply put the Viking gene is now almost completely absent from British gene pool again! So there is hope!

[sidhujag]

A good way to get a head of future market moves is to game out important scenarios, i.e. ones which result in market moves.  I think WW2b is an important scenario.  Here's my WW2b scenario:  

Occupied Crimea votes independence from Ukraine.  
Ukraine mobilizes military in eastern Ukraine.  
Putin invades eastern Ukraine to "protect ethnic Russians".  
Ukrainian military retreats.  
NATO enters Ukraine.  
Ukraine military re-enters eastern Ukraine.  
Putin escalates in eastern Ukraine.  
Ukraine military retreats.  
NATO in force.  
NATO - Russian air conflict, Russia suffers loses.
NATO - Russian ground conflict, NATO suffers loses.  
NATO uses tactical nukes.  
Putin nukes New York.

How does this scenario affect Bitcoin?

Are there scenarios in Transdniestra or the Baltics which are more likely to escalate than the more narrowly focused conflict in Ukraine?

Why does every conflict end up in a world war? I read these everytime there is a fight... Nothing is smaller than when the mosques in Iran are bombed..iraq iran is the cause of any war nothing else.

[billyjoeallen]

Putin will not nuke New York. He wouldn't need to to win and he has other options available to him. He's a chess player and he won't risk his king (himself). From western news sources, you wouldn't know it, but he's been losing for years. He may have taken South Osettia and Abkhazia (sp?), but he lost Georgia, Home of Stalin. He's not gaining the Crimea. He's losing half of Ukraine (or more).

All Putin has to do is remind the West of how they supported autonomous regions Like Kossovo in the past and to claim the Crimea is simply another such case of self-determination. Really, the hypocrisy of the West is stunning. I'm a veteran, so I know that American troops will not want to face a real army for the first time in our lifetimes over some Ukrainian shithole. What's the principle at stake? No, the West will arm the Ukranians, let them fight it out on their own and they will likely get slaughtered. Their only way out is to cede The Crimea and Eastern Ukraine to Putin and draw new borders.

[Paxman]

Basically, Putin inherited a nation in disarray and has put Russia towards superpower status. The West are broke and relatively weak at the moment, and are demonising him in the media (Syria, Pussy Riot, gay rights at Sochi etc.), because a strong Russia is a strong rival. Ukraine is the latest example.

Putin has played his hand in Crimea and Ukraine with the intention of preventing the installation of NATO missile defence systems in Ukraine. The dominant Russian ethnolinguistic nature of Crimea and the referendum ensures that Putin is seen to have acted legitimately in the eyes of much of the international community, despite is isolation that the Western media talk of. Crucially, China have not condemned the annexation of Crimea, and this strengthens any territorial claims China might make in the future within its own sphere of influence (South China Sea). I'm interested to see the extent of the sanctions and how the BRIC nations react. Will more nations start defying the US?

[billyjoeallen]

Basically, Putin inherited a nation in disarray and has put Russia towards superpower status. The West are broke and relatively weak at the moment, and are demonising him in the media (Syria, Pussy Riot, gay rights at Sochi etc.), because a strong Russia is a strong rival. Ukraine is the latest example.

Putin has played his hand in Crimea and Ukraine with the intention of preventing the installation of NATO missile defence systems in Ukraine. The dominant Russian ethnolinguistic nature of Crimea and the referendum ensures that Putin is seen to have acted legitimately in the eyes of much of the international community, despite is isolation that the Western media talk of. Crucially, China have not condemned the annexation of Crimea, and this strengthens any territorial claims China might make in the future within its own sphere of influence (South China Sea). I'm interested to see the extent of the sanctions and how the BRIC nations react. Will more nations start defying the US?

Russia is a regional power, not a superpower. They have no manufacturing base and make money only by selling off natural resources. And there is negative population growth. Thank God Ukraine was not admitted into NATO or we really would be on the brink of WWIII. It won't happen. Expect an outcome similar to what happened in Georgia.

[aminorex]

The parallels between Poland 75 years ago and Ukraine today are interesting.

Ibian, I wasn't laughing.  But now I am:

WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—In what was described as a major ramping up of sanctions, Secretary of State John Kerry announced on Tuesday that the United States had frozen Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Netflix account, effective immediately.

“Unless and until Mr. Putin calls off the annexation of Crimea, no more ‘House of Cards’ or ‘Orange Is the New Black’ for him,” Mr. Kerry said. “The United States will not stand by and reward the annexation of another sovereign nation with a policy of streaming as usual.”

While all of the sanctions Mr. Kerry announced on Tuesday were Netflix-related, he warned Mr. Putin that “nothing is off the table.”

“I’m sure I don’t need to remind the Russian President that ‘Game of Thrones’ is about to come back for another season,” he said. “As I have said, this thing could get very ugly, very fast.”

[Ibian]

e) Third strike! (Stalin,Cold War, Ukraine) Once broken, it will be 50 years before anyone even re-considers Russia as fit to rejoin the civilised world again.

I thought this part was amusing. Mayhap Russia feels that the west is not fit to join the civilized part of the world. Personally, I have not considered the west a civilized place for some time. Other than that general agreement with your post.

Lol, depends how far west you go! personally I consider this green and pleasent land (England) pretty civilised by world standards. My wife and I did joke though, that perhaps we should invite Ukraine to take Scotlands place in the United Kingdom! (Especially since they seem to speak better English!)

I hear brits are a minority in London now. Mass immigration is a sign of end times. No culture in all of recorded history has ever survived sub-replacement fertility coupled with native displacement. This is one of those cases where I would like to be wrong, so if you, or anyone, knows of a counterexample do share.

You may be right there, but one town does not a country make!
In fact I recently heard the Lord Mayor of London refer to it as 'The Capital Of The World', and as a general observation he could be right! London is like unofficial UN, it's where people of the world come to do what we all want to do in peace 'make good business' (Quoting from 3 Kings film there).

There are an awful lot of Russians in London also, and I strongly suspect with the new EU policy negotiations on Russian Visa's now being cancelled, that there will soon be an lot less! I wonder if Putin should be stepping in to protect those poor russians in London whose rights are not being upheld, perhaps russian tanks should role down the mall!

Oh and by the way, you wanted a counter example, the Brit's survived the Viking invasions/displacements, and genetic testing has shown that the original Gene pool re-asserted itself afterwards, or simply put the Viking gene is now almost completely absent from British gene pool again! So there is hope!

Uh. No. Both blood and language mixed during the viking invasion. The original people, and their language, are long gone. The current brits are a mix of vikings and those who lived there originally, among others. The original people are gone and will never return.

And a timeline for "hope" of a thousand years is not precisely helpful to those of us living in the present...

[jubalix]

Putin is in a fight for his ego.  His propaganda reveals his self-image.  To maintain his identity, he must not back down, must out-game all opponents, and make continual gains.  This is perfectly aligned with his domestic political requirements.  Expanding empire is good for the oligarchs he represents and manages, and good for his popular support.  His most obvious weakness:  Dependence on internal backers, whose interests may change skew to his own.  We have a mafioso in power in Russia.  He's more like Don Corleone than Hitler, but there are similarities to both.

Russian invasion of Ukraine at SOME level will not be tolerated by NATO.  He has seized Abkhazia and South Ossetia.  He has seized Transdneistra.  He has seized Crimea.  If he seizes Ukraine it seems clear he will seize the Baltic States.  Hell, why not Finland?  Why not assimilate Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan?  We've been down this road before.  Poland in WW2 had its borders guaranteed by UK.  Ukraine today had its borders guaranteed by US UK and RU.  If Russia stays in Ukraine, Ukraine will re-arm nuclear.  NATO does not want that, at least not unless Ukraine is both stable and part of NATO.  Putin would rather invade Ukraine entire than invade part and face a nuclear Ukraine in 2 years time.

To say there is nothing the west can do about it seems very questionable to me.  Putin can be removed.  Economic measures can be taken which would beggar Russia, causing him to be deposed.  Military action can be taken to strengthen Ukraine.  Political action can be taken, to incorporate Ukraine into NATO, or offer that as a chip to bargain against Crimea.  In a political game, ground truth is critical.  Putin is motivated to grab as much as he can before coming to the bargaining table.  If he does that badly, there will be copious blood.  The west has strong incentives to stop him before he gains more power, more momentum, and more bargaining chips.  In fact, given his history, it seems clear to me at least that he must be punished.  Some chips must be removed from his kitty, or he will just do it again on another front.

Where are you from and what sort of geopolitical disneyland are you living in?

The US lead West, have been baiting China and Russia for years and will continue to do so. Lately they have been pushing things a little too far and Putin isn't standing for it. All these recent squabbles in Russia's backyard involve muscling in on markets and gaining a strategic foothold right on Russia's doorstep. Can you see why Putin or any other Russian leader (who hasn't sold out to the West) might have a problem with a great big belt of NATO missile bases going up right along their borders? NATO cannot afford to engage Russia in a out and out military conflict. Russia needs to be brought to heel or at least pushed into a strategic and economic stalemate position. The ultimate end goal is to be in a position to crush China, who will grow to be the US's number 1 competitor for world resources and power. A strong Russia stands in the way of a WW3 scenario. For this reason, the Russian bear needs to be driven into it's cage, and held there.

oh and btw, just sit back and watch how Russia annex the Crimea and NATO does fuck all except blow their trumpet and wag their fingers. If the west pushes for sanctions against Russia, then Russia can also badly hurt the West, especially so the EU, and the EU won't like the US pushing for sanctions that will indirectly damage them. The US have pushed the boat out too far on this one, and will have to take a slap in the face with humility, as Russia does whatever it wants.

This make no geo political sense.

Russia and China are far from friends, it would be much better to be friendly with Russia to have China contained.

Inmho, there is enough intercine issues in russia, china and likely US to keep them all looking over their shoulders.

[MatTheCat]

This make no geo political sense.

Russia and China are far from friends, it would be much better to be friendly with Russia to have China contained.

Inmho, there is enough intercine issues in russia, china and likely US to keep them all looking over their shoulders.

Go and take another look at what is going on. Take your time over it and come back and have another go at making a wise statement on the matter. Russia may not be great m8s with China but Russia are their own sovereign nation, Russia will use her political weight to suit her own independent objectives, and that is clearly no good to the US. Just look at Syria. If not for Russia, Syria would be another Libya or Iraq by now. Russia is a major spanner in the works for the US/Israeli foreign policy agenda. Russia needs to be brought to heel.

The US thought they could simply fund a Ukrainian insurrection against the government there, replace it with an ultra anti-Russian, pro EU/NATO regime, and start setting up shop there. They thought they could, but it turns out they couldn't....and now they are banning Mr Putin's Netflix account or whatever.

[howardb]

Uh. No. Both blood and language mixed during the viking invasion. The original people, and their language, are long gone. The current brits are a mix of vikings and those who lived there originally, among others. The original people are gone and will never return.

And a timeline for "hope" of a thousand years is not precisely helpful to those of us living in the present...

Sorry your most definately wrong there Ibian, the Gene pool research was comprehensive and definitive (Professor Jobling from Leeds University I believe).  It was a study aimed at understanding the effects of fresh gene pools on established ones, and it basically showed that unless the new gene pool built and maintained a critical percentage (Cannot remember the exact figure, but I think it was about 30%) of the old gene pool, that the old gene pool would reassert itself and gradually dilute out the new gene pool over time. Hence my statement that Brits are Brits not Viking muts is true! Language is of course intermixable, and to some extent we are all language muts.

Edit: Quote from his research: "Jobling found little evidence that mtDNA sequences characteristic of Norwegian populations were present in either the medieval or modern group of British men"

[Ibian]

Uh. No. Both blood and language mixed during the viking invasion. The original people, and their language, are long gone. The current brits are a mix of vikings and those who lived there originally, among others. The original people are gone and will never return.

And a timeline for "hope" of a thousand years is not precisely helpful to those of us living in the present...

Sorry your most definately wrong there Ibian, the Gene pool research was comprehensive and definitive (Professor Jobling from Leeds University I believe).  It was a study aimed at understanding the effects of fresh gene pools on established ones, and it basically showed that unless the new gene pool built and maintained a critical percentage (Cannot remember the exact figure, but I think it was about 30%) of the old gene pool, that the old gene pool would reassert itself and gradually dilute out the new gene pool over time. Hence my statement that Brits are Brits not Viking muts is true! Language is of course intermixable, and to some extent we are all language muts.

Edit: Quote from his research: "Jobling found little evidence that mtDNA sequences characteristic of Norwegian populations were present in either the medieval or modern group of British men"

Don't really care to discuss it, but just noting that it was a Danish led invasion. Why would norwegians matter. They were there, but not as any kind of majority. It's the entire scandinavian people you need to look at, but mostly danes. Also a link to the study would be nice.

[jubalix]

A good way to get a head of future market moves is to game out important scenarios, i.e. ones which result in market moves.  I think WW2b is an important scenario.  Here's my WW2b scenario:  

Occupied Crimea votes independence from Ukraine.  
Ukraine mobilizes military in eastern Ukraine.  
Putin invades eastern Ukraine to "protect ethnic Russians".  
Ukrainian military retreats.  
NATO enters Ukraine.  
Ukraine military re-enters eastern Ukraine.  
Putin escalates in eastern Ukraine.  
Ukraine military retreats.  
NATO in force.  
NATO - Russian air conflict, Russia suffers loses.
NATO - Russian ground conflict, NATO suffers loses.  
NATO uses tactical nukes.  
Putin nukes New York.

How does this scenario affect Bitcoin?

Are there scenarios in Transdniestra or the Baltics which are more likely to escalate than the more narrowly focused conflict in Ukraine?

WWII??? Its WWIII!! 

Yes. This is a WWIII scenario. As for Bitcoin the question then becomes how many nodes do you have to nuke in order to knock out the entire network?

BTC would be far far more resilient than any current banking system, there are just to may nodes that can start up to easily in so many places.

The block chain is going to be beamed down from space soon.....

[gogxmagog]

Economic war leads to physical war pretty quickly as evidenced . Is BRICS still on the table. What's the Russian btc market like?

[Wilhelm]

Putin is Evil but not stupid. He knows he can get away with annexing Crimea, there's nothing the West can do about it. Ukraine has always been under Russia/Soviet's Sphere of Influence. It's their backyard/frontyard/sideyard or whatever. Ordinary people be damned. Ordinary people are stupid, have you heard that majority of Russian people are supporting their dictator right now?

james, can you explain to me the motivations of the US and Russia's involvement in this situation? I've so far had a hard time wrapping my head around that part. Your post indicates a perception of Putin acting out of greed (a trait of being evil) and I just want to know how it's different from what everyone else is doing there.

Gas and oil pipelines.

[UnDerDoG81]

If we had no Putin, WWIII would be already all around us here in the EU. He is a good and clever man. Did not fall to all US/EU/Nato provocations and false flags.

[gts476]

World War II was World War I part 2

so then this next work, being World War II part 2 makes this next war WORLD WAR I PART 3

shits going down.


 

[UnDerDoG81]

Putin USA is Evil but not stupid. He They knows he they can get away with annexing Crimea with bombing Iraq and killing over 1.000.000 humans without finding any hint of mass destruction weapons, there's nothing the West rest of the world can do about it. Ukraine The west has always been under Russia/Soviet's USA´s Sphere of Influence. It's their backyard/frontyard/sideyard or whatever. Ordinary people be damned. Ordinary people are stupid, have you heard that majority of Russian American people are supporting their dictators right now?

Sorry, needed to correct that one.

[poncom]

Putin is Evil but not stupid. He knows he can get away with annexing Crimea, there's nothing the West can do about it. Ukraine has always been under Russia/Soviet's Sphere of Influence. It's their backyard/frontyard/sideyard or whatever. Ordinary people be damned. Ordinary people are stupid, have you heard that majority of Russian people are supporting their dictator right now?

james, can you explain to me the motivations of the US and Russia's involvement in this situation? I've so far had a hard time wrapping my head around that part. Your post indicates a perception of Putin acting out of greed (a trait of being evil) and I just want to know how it's different from what everyone else is doing there.

I am not James but I can try to explain Putin's motivation.

The Crimea was part of the Russian empire for hundreds of years and part of the Soviet Union after that. It wasn't until 1954 that Khruschev made it part of the Ukranian S.S.R.

After the break up of the Soviet Union, the now independent country of Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapon arsenal and the Russian navy was allowed to keep using its base in Sevastopol on the Black Sea (in Crimea).

Thereafter, NATO expanded to include certain Eastern European countries.

Ukraine has been split between the western Ukranian part of the country which is majority ethnic Ukranian and Ukranian nationalist and southern/eastern Ukraine which is majority Russian ethnicity in many areas and more pro Russia.

Putin's actions may be based on mistrust of the west/the new government that just took power in Kiev as well as a desire to protect Russia's interests in the Crimea. A desire to look strong also probably plays well on the home front. I don't think all out war is likely however.

Years ago I heard the Russian navy's base in Sevastopol on the Black Sea (in Crimea) was the only easy way the Russian navy could reach the Atlantic. Russia cannot give it up without giving up it's only easy route to the Atlantic, so it's unlikely it will back down.

Russia has no direct outlets except on the Pacific Ocean and the White and Arctic Seas. To reach the Atlantic, the ships must travel along devious routes: in the north via the Finnish Gulf, the Baltic Sea, and the North Sea; in the south through the Black Sea, the Dardanelles, and the Mediterranean.

In its early history, Russia's only ports were on the Arctic Ocean and frozen shut for much of the year.

[Biodom]

Putin is Evil but not stupid. He knows he can get away with annexing Crimea, there's nothing the West can do about it. Ukraine has always been under Russia/Soviet's Sphere of Influence. It's their backyard/frontyard/sideyard or whatever. Ordinary people be damned. Ordinary people are stupid, have you heard that majority of Russian people are supporting their dictator right now?

james, can you explain to me the motivations of the US and Russia's involvement in this situation? I've so far had a hard time wrapping my head around that part. Your post indicates a perception of Putin acting out of greed (a trait of being evil) and I just want to know how it's different from what everyone else is doing there.

I am not James but I can try to explain Putin's motivation.

The Crimea was part of the Russian empire for hundreds of years and part of the Soviet Union after that. It wasn't until 1954 that Khruschev made it part of the Ukranian S.S.R.

After the break up of the Soviet Union, the now independent country of Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapon arsenal and the Russian navy was allowed to keep using its base in Sevastopol on the Black Sea (in Crimea).

Thereafter, NATO expanded to include certain Eastern European countries.

Ukraine has been split between the western Ukranian part of the country which is majority ethnic Ukranian and Ukranian nationalist and southern/eastern Ukraine which is majority Russian ethnicity in many areas and more pro Russia.

Putin's actions may be based on mistrust of the west/the new government that just took power in Kiev as well as a desire to protect Russia's interests in the Crimea. A desire to look strong also probably plays well on the home front. I don't think all out war is likely however.

Years ago I heard the Russian navy's base in Sevastopol on the Black Sea (in Crimea) was the only easy way the Russian navy could reach the Atlantic. Russia cannot give it up without giving up it's only easy route to the Atlantic, so it's unlikely it will back down.

Russia has no direct outlets except on the Pacific Ocean and the White and Arctic Seas. To reach the Atlantic, the ships must travel along devious routes: in the north via the Finnish Gulf, the Baltic Sea, and the North Sea; in the south through the Black Sea, the Dardanelles, and the Mediterranean.

In its early history, Russia's only ports were on the Arctic Ocean and frozen shut for much of the year.

I don't know about anything else, but you need to freshen up on your geography lessons.
I have one word for you: Murmansk

"The port of Murmansk remains ice-free year round due to the warm North Atlantic Current"
"Red october"...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWPBr4L1eyE