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Author Topic: Casinos can use AI to get additional edge?  (Read 8347 times)
hatshepsut93 (OP)
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June 23, 2019, 08:14:09 PM
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 #1

Gambling is all about random number generation, and provably fair scheme provides guarantees that casino doesn't cheat, but we also know that humans are horrible random number generators - we are very easily predictable.

There are many online demonstrations available, I'll just drop one here: http://www.cs.stir.ac.uk/~kms/schools/rps/index.php
After a small number of games, computer becomes quite good at consistently beating you at the game.

So, theoretically a casino can observe how you place your bets, then predict your next bets and make their own bets (they always go first) accordingly. The flaw here is if this algorithm is implemented too naively, it can be abused by players by making big amounts of predictable low-value bets, and then making a big opposite bet.
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June 23, 2019, 08:19:12 PM
 #2

The gambler always knows that there game is being read by someone else besides them and there is no way of proving this with their famous line of defence "they can't manipulate games" but we know the truth and AI is certainly at play! I have had this experience with blackjack, dice and many other games....the losing streak is my evidence Tongue

 
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June 23, 2019, 08:34:51 PM
 #3

The gambler always knows that there game is being read by someone else besides them and there is no way of proving this with their famous line of defence "they can't manipulate games" but we know the truth and AI is certainly at play! I have had this experience with blackjack, dice and many other games....the losing streak is my evidence Tongue

One losing streak of one player can hardly be called evidence, to get real evidence, you need to statistically analyze millions of bets and then calculate if the real house edge is bigger than the claimed house edge. This is because in short term anything can happen, you can lose or win 20 times in a row, sometimes there are bad days for casino when they lose a lot, and so on - what we should be looking at is big data.
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June 23, 2019, 08:41:10 PM
 #4

With a nonce system (which many online casinos use), the results are predetermined and can't be altered without a new server seed.

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June 23, 2019, 08:45:22 PM
 #5

We're to believe and play, the provably fair feature can really be implemented but the reality can't be examined. Always the casinos develop an algorithm that adjust with the winning made by the user. Here very lucky ones get out with a big win. As stated in a quote there is no big loss for the casinos. Maybe at times it provides with huge payout, but the same will be taken back if the player continues. This has taken place with me. I started with 0.01btc and after a week I turned it to 0.05btc further I was unable to earn than losing on majority of the picks. Finally ended with nothing in the wallet.

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June 23, 2019, 08:49:40 PM
 #6

The gambler always knows that there game is being read by someone else besides them and there is no way of proving this with their famous line of defence "they can't manipulate games" but we know the truth and AI is certainly at play! I have had this experience with blackjack, dice and many other games....the losing streak is my evidence Tongue

One losing streak of one player can hardly be called evidence, to get real evidence, you need to statistically analyze millions of bets and then calculate if the real house edge is bigger than the claimed house edge. This is because in short term anything can happen, you can lose or win 20 times in a row, sometimes there are bad days for casino when they lose a lot, and so on - what we should be looking at is big data.
Thats how the house defends itself in such instances

 
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June 23, 2019, 09:43:53 PM
 #7

The gambler always knows that there game is being read by someone else besides them and there is no way of proving this with their famous line of defence "they can't manipulate games" but we know the truth and AI is certainly at play! I have had this experience with blackjack, dice and many other games....the losing streak is my evidence Tongue

One losing streak of one player can hardly be called evidence, to get real evidence, you need to statistically analyze millions of bets and then calculate if the real house edge is bigger than the claimed house edge. This is because in short term anything can happen, you can lose or win 20 times in a row, sometimes there are bad days for casino when they lose a lot, and so on - what we should be looking at is big data.
Thats how the house defends itself in such instances
For such gambler who do only make few bets then it wont really that enough to prove out something and also

if you do try to make arguments that the site isn't fair then you would need up some solid evidence and about AI or any whatsoever
algorithms we are speaking on here it non a surprising thing actually.

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June 23, 2019, 10:16:57 PM
 #8

I did observed some games like roulette wherein it looks like the casinos or maybe AI, when they see the pattern of your bets, you won't see success as it used to be. Of course there is almost the edge, but I don't know, see this many times when I'm playing that's why when I had a good run I will simply stop. At least I have won a few and move on the next game.

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June 24, 2019, 03:08:56 AM
 #9

Gambling is all about random number generation, and provably fair scheme provides guarantees that casino doesn't cheat, but we also know that humans are horrible random number generators - we are very easily predictable.

There are many online demonstrations available, I'll just drop one here: http://www.cs.stir.ac.uk/~kms/schools/rps/index.php
After a small number of games, computer becomes quite good at consistently beating you at the game.

So, theoretically a casino can observe how you place your bets, then predict your next bets and make their own bets (they always go first) accordingly. The flaw here is if this algorithm is implemented too naively, it can be abused by players by making big amounts of predictable low-value bets, and then making a big opposite bet.
We really are horrible random number generators but I don't think that gambler site owner won't implement algorithm too naively where what you mentioned is true that it can be abused by players who knows that it has a flaw that you can take advantages. I think they will use algorithm but I think it's more aggressive in giving randomly generated number that make the game base on pure luck.

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June 24, 2019, 03:20:13 AM
 #10

There will always be the risks of online casinos and anything goes. That is why it is important to only use reputable licensed casinos. Of course, this isn't 100% perfect and diligence always needs to be done, but using common sense and avoiding shady sites is a good way to ensure you avoid any of cheating by the casino.

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June 24, 2019, 04:43:42 AM
 #11

There will always be the risks of online casinos and anything goes. That is why it is important to only use reputable licensed casinos. Of course, this isn't 100% perfect and diligence always needs to be done, but using common sense and avoiding shady sites is a good way to ensure you avoid any of cheating by the casino.
If a casino is licensed or not doesnt really matter. Casinos usually dont write the software they use by themself, they buy them from software vendors. A friend of mine works for such a company, there are minor tweaks in place which prevent casinos from losing too much money, eg a part of the software ensures that there arent too many jackpots per month


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June 24, 2019, 05:39:38 AM
 #12

The gambler always knows that there game is being read by someone else besides them and there is no way of proving this with their famous line of defence "they can't manipulate games" but we know the truth and AI is certainly at play! I have had this experience with blackjack, dice and many other games....the losing streak is my evidence Tongue
Lossing streak is not a valid evidence. Wondering why you can't beat the house? Because that's the reality of gambling. You only have a small chance in beating the house. Wether you play in online casino or in physical, you'll get the same result. You're going to have more losses.

We're to believe and play, the provably fair feature can really be implemented but the reality can't be examined. Always the casinos develop an algorithm that adjust with the winning made by the user. Here very lucky ones get out with a big win. As stated in a quote there is no big loss for the casinos. Maybe at times it provides with huge payout, but the same will be taken back if the player continues. This has taken place with me. I started with 0.01btc and after a week I turned it to 0.05btc further I was unable to earn than losing on majority of the picks. Finally ended with nothing in the wallet.
You just said "picks" right? So I assumed, you are talking about sportsbetting? So, the house has nothing to do with the result. Your winning and lossing will be based on the team, fighter, player, etc. So, what can an algorithm thing can do? LOL. What's funnier here is, you are wearing a sig of online casino but you are opposing and looks like you aren't believing in provably fair.
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June 24, 2019, 06:43:47 AM
 #13

Gambling is all about random number generation, and provably fair scheme provides guarantees that casino doesn't cheat, but we also know that humans are horrible random number generators - we are very easily predictable.

There are many online demonstrations available, I'll just drop one here: http://www.cs.stir.ac.uk/~kms/schools/rps/index.php
After a small number of games, computer becomes quite good at consistently beating you at the game.

So, theoretically a casino can observe how you place your bets, then predict your next bets and make their own bets (they always go first) accordingly. The flaw here is if this algorithm is implemented too naively, it can be abused by players by making big amounts of predictable low-value bets, and then making a big opposite bet.

We definitely know that. I think a friend did a test on my before and asked me to guess a few numbers from something to something (I forgotten!) and he showed me that I picked the same number, or the same pattern of numbers,,, over and over. And I did not even realize it.

Casinos definitely watch players, and they see if you like to take big risks and low chances, they will let you do it!

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June 24, 2019, 06:56:06 AM
 #14

I don't think they need any more AI to get money from gamblers or for them to get additional edge because as we all know casinos will really get profits in the long run depending on the number of times the gambler play. The longer a gambler play the higher chance that gambler will lose, imagine how many gambler's play everyday, with casinos house edges they don't need to cheat or do anything because in the long run they will win.
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June 24, 2019, 08:18:06 AM
 #15

The casinos always win in the long time as they have the house edge which is set in their slot machines,blackjack and roulette games.I talk about electronic games and not the real blackjack and roulette.

If they add AI it can cause a lot of damage to the gamblers as AI can read patterns and make the appropriate adjustment to the variance of the gameplay if the gsmbler is winning.

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June 24, 2019, 08:46:10 AM
 #16

Now that we are on a whole new level of technology, there is no question about ai being used by most gambling sites(if not all) to have an edge over their clients. But considering this fact, gamblers still do the betting not because of the house edge but because they enjoy doing so.

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June 24, 2019, 09:00:23 AM
 #17

Gambling is all about random number generation, and provably fair scheme provides guarantees that casino doesn't cheat, but we also know that humans are horrible random number generators - we are very easily predictable.

There are many online demonstrations available, I'll just drop one here: http://www.cs.stir.ac.uk/~kms/schools/rps/index.php
After a small number of games, computer becomes quite good at consistently beating you at the game.

So, theoretically a casino can observe how you place your bets, then predict your next bets and make their own bets (they always go first) accordingly. The flaw here is if this algorithm is implemented too naively, it can be abused by players by making big amounts of predictable low-value bets, and then making a big opposite bet.

Exactly! And that's only a single example out of many ways of overplaying robots. I used to play with bots on newly appeared poker sites, and won over 0.1 BTC that way(unfortunately, it looks like there are no such sites around anymore). It takes several hours(with small bets) to understand their algorithm, and then you can make larger bets and win most of the time. And even in the Rock, Paper, Scissors game, as you said, the algorithm can be abused.

Regarding dice, you can play with the same server seed as many times as you want, so I don't see how AI can provide a provably fair dice site with an additional edge.

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June 25, 2019, 10:08:24 PM
 #18

I don't think they need any more AI to get money from gamblers or for them to get additional edge because as we all know casinos will really get profits in the long run depending on the number of times the gambler play. The longer a gambler play the higher chance that gambler will lose, imagine how many gambler's play everyday, with casinos house edges they don't need to cheat or do anything because in the long run they will win.

Yes, they have house edge already so if they will integrate AI, they will rip more money from the gamblers.  Tongue
If that would be the case, it might be very hard for the player to win now in casinos.
I don't think that's a good idea if you are a gambler and not the business owner.
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June 25, 2019, 10:26:26 PM
 #19

Gambling is all about random number generation, and provably fair scheme provides guarantees that casino doesn't cheat, but we also know that humans are horrible random number generators - we are very easily predictable.
Not really. The gambling websites don't use the traditional random number generators. Even computers or programming languages fail at that.

So, theoretically a casino can observe how you place your bets, then predict your next bets and make their own bets (they always go first) accordingly. The flaw here is if this algorithm is implemented too naively, it can be abused by players by making big amounts of predictable low-value bets, and then making a big opposite bet.
They can predict how I bet but can they predict what's the next winning number is going to be? I think not. If any gambling site manages to do that, people would stop playing there.
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June 25, 2019, 10:38:49 PM
 #20


So, theoretically a casino can observe how you place your bets, then predict your next bets and make their own bets (they always go first) accordingly. The flaw here is if this algorithm is implemented too naively, it can be abused by players by making big amounts of predictable low-value bets, and then making a big opposite bet.
They can predict how I bet but can they predict what's the next winning number is going to be? I think not. If any gambling site manages to do that, people would stop playing there.
On point and a pretty basic thing where if they do manage such to know results then that would already be a big issue.
They can know patterns but due to random betting it would be hard or manage to know on what will be the next thing comes into your mind.  Grin

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