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Author Topic: Why was $13,800 unsustainable?  (Read 1018 times)
shield132
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June 27, 2019, 10:49:07 AM
 #21

Again and again, exchangers ruined situation. The fall was caused after crash of coinbase, withing minutes after their announced crash, price felt by 1400$ (They announced that their API and website weren't working functionally). Currently bitcoin's price is 11900, very near to 12K, hope yesterday's situation won't ruin everything so hardly and soon we will see rise again. Let's wait some hours and results which will be put in the end of day may answer further questions, if it continue to rise again or will we be in stuck for a while?

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cocoadreamboy
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June 27, 2019, 10:55:46 AM
 #22

P.S. You guys are really mad I am not giving my hard work away for free lol

1. You didn't convince anybody that your advises are valuable at all.
2. You wrongly assumed that I want your work for free. I don't. I just tried to help any unknowing newbie lose money by blindly following (you or) any unknown people over internet trading advises.

1. For some reason your prerogative is to convince yourself that bitcoin is magical and doesn't follow simple financial rules. good luck to you
2. Clearly you would struggle paying $20/ month, its ok bro

I don't give internet trading advice (you should learn spelling).

I tell people the creation cost of BTC, BCH, ETH, and LTC as well as the cash flows and other pertinent data.

They are more prepared to profit from downturns and massive manipulated pumps than others, that is what I sell PREPARATION and AWARENESS.

You do want it for free clearly, if only to troll on it lol that is why I made this sample:

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis

So cheap people can try to figure out what is happening with month old research Wink

Aaron

If you want true bitcoin data and research checkout my site:
https://www.amsinger.org
cocoadreamboy
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June 27, 2019, 11:01:20 AM
 #23

Again and again, exchangers ruined situation. The fall was caused after crash of coinbase, withing minutes after their announced crash, price felt by 1400$ (They announced that their API and website weren't working functionally). Currently bitcoin's price is 11900, very near to 12K, hope yesterday's situation won't ruin everything so hardly and soon we will see rise again. Let's wait some hours and results which will be put in the end of day may answer further questions, if it continue to rise again or will we be in stuck for a while?

@ $12k btc the market would need $21.6M of new investment every day. If you think $7.8Billion will be flooding into bitcoin this year then bitcoin will stay at $12k.

The only way to know the bottom is to know the creation cost, which it often comes near, December 2018, February 2019, March 2019, and May 2 2019 are all times bitcoin has come close to the price floor recently.

You can see how close it got on May 2 here:

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis

Aaron

If you want true bitcoin data and research checkout my site:
https://www.amsinger.org
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June 27, 2019, 11:15:47 AM
 #24

To my opinion it was because of exchanges. Situation with coinbase interrupted positive trend for a while but enough for market to lose confidence. Now some representatives of conspiracy theories would probably say that wasn't accidental but the truth is you can never actually predict such situations.
Anyway, we'll see how far current correction will go, maybe is this just small temporary disturbance.

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cocoadreamboy
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June 27, 2019, 08:12:54 PM
 #25

To my opinion it was because of exchanges. Situation with coinbase interrupted positive trend for a while but enough for market to lose confidence. Now some representatives of conspiracy theories would probably say that wasn't accidental but the truth is you can never actually predict such situations.
Anyway, we'll see how far current correction will go, maybe is this just small temporary disturbance.

Perhaps the exchanges had something to do with it, but what I am saying is naturally (in a vacuum) bitcoin must receive a specific amount of investment to maintain high prices over time. There is a reason 1k bitcoin was insanely huge prices during mt gox, and is basically nothing now.

The data I publish puts the true cash flows in perspective. The market must correct. To where? Only my clients and I will know, once the data comes in. Wink

Aaron

If you want true bitcoin data and research checkout my site:
https://www.amsinger.org
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June 27, 2019, 10:48:11 PM
 #26

You just told people to sell at $9K a week ago (see quoted link above), right before BTC rallied to nearly $14K. It's amazing you can sell a paid service around here with a straight face. You should demonstrate a decent track record before attempting to sell shit here. From the looks of it, you're just coming into my community and ripping people off.

Where did I tell people to sell at $9k Mr. troll?

You said price was going to crash from $9K and you strongly implied people should sell. Right here. Anyone can verify via timestamps what the price was.

A few key excerpts:

Quote
I just published a whole research paper for my clients yesterday predicting a drop based on the cash flow and the recent hash rate drop.
Quote
I will do this in order to find the optimal profit exit point for the miners (whales).
Quote
This is just the beginning of the fall.
Quote
P.S. If you don't follow this enjoy buying the highs and selling the lows.

You predicted a drop from $9K which never came. You said the reason for your analysis was "to find the optimal profit exit point", i.e. when to sell. You said "this is just the beginning of the fall" implying strongly that people should sell. Then you further warned that not following your advice meant "buying the highs and selling the lows."

Yet anyone following your analysis literally would have sold the lows and missed out on a 50% gain. Even after a 25% crash, price is still way above where you said it would fall from.

And yes, you person with complete inability to read English, I demonstrated why Feb 7 was an optimal time to buy. I also said that May 2 was another good time to buy based on the creation cost.

You "demonstrated" these things in June! LOL. No one is impressed by hindsight analysis.

You said you were short on June 13th. The price never went below the June 13th daily low after that post. It went all the way to $13,800 and still hasn't.

Every trade idea you promote is a losing one. Please stop selling shit here until you learn how to trade. You are only losing people money and you should feel bad for it.

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June 27, 2019, 10:56:12 PM
 #27

Ever thought about all the people who got burned during the last $10k-$19k?
Yes a boatload of people will be wanting to get off this rocket even at break-even...

This breather is good because we want the FOMO coming in as late as possible for optimal profits (>70k).
If bitcoin only goes up then we will start the FOMO too early and end up with only 30k per BTC.

Bitcoin is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get !!
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June 27, 2019, 11:01:41 PM
 #28

The op is a complete tool, literally nothing he says is worth reading. This is a completely normal correction after an unsustainable parabolic rise. Hodl is the only answer if you want to be rich in a few years. If you want to be rich tomorrow, go buy a lottery ticket.
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June 27, 2019, 11:07:56 PM
Merited by exstasie (1)
 #29


Every trade idea you promote is a losing one. Please stop selling shit here until you learn how to trade. You are only losing people money and you should feel bad for it.

At least he added his address on his site so burnt people can go to his house....  Wink

Bitcoin is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get !!
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June 27, 2019, 11:08:34 PM
 #30

Further after $13800 it'll be on the urge to reach the $15000 barrier which is why the $13800 looked unsustainable. To cross $10000 what the market suffered or experienced in terms of momentum, resistance level is very big. It took days of correction and finally marched crossing $10k.

To cross $15000 surely it is supposed to be strong enough and the same needs to be made possible through the price correction which keeps the market above $15000 sustain for a longer time period when the market correction takes place at the right point.




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June 27, 2019, 11:12:17 PM
 #31

I'm stunned the price is $11k in June 2019. And very impressed.
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June 27, 2019, 11:25:45 PM
Merited by figmentofmyass (2), mikeywith (1)
 #32

I'm stunned the price is $11k in June 2019. And very impressed.

Same. I expected a much slower, sustained rise similar to 2015-2016. It just goes to show you that history rhymes but never repeats.

Here's a possible bear scenario where we take a much welcome breather. Maybe the OP's "clients" will be able to break even and get their coins back after all. Measured move off .618 to a confluence of trend and horizontal support. It would keep the parabolic advance comfortably intact, with time left for another leg up before the Litecoin halving in August. This would be such an awesome setup:


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June 28, 2019, 12:25:37 AM
Merited by figmentofmyass (2)
 #33


Great analysis, I see no reason why shouldn't we visit 9.5k , looking at it from a different point of view using the





using only the 5 week moving average, notice how we always tend to correct all the way down to that MA , this time we were a bit too far and it only makes sense that we head back to where it is 9.5k - 10k  before taking off again.

as long as we are above the 5MA on the weekly, the moment should be fast to the upside , if we do close below the 5 week MA then we could correct all the way back to 8k.

overall, we are officially in an up trend, looking for good entry points is going to be more beneficial than trying to short the peaks, i expect many bear traps to come.

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June 28, 2019, 01:39:58 AM
Last edit: June 28, 2019, 01:58:59 AM by STT
 #34

I agree with that, the easiest thing to do is follow the trend so as of the last few months thats been entries long.   I made small trades short that rarely make much even when correct because price keeps checking back up higher.   Even if it falls harder you have to be present at that moment really

Ever thought about all the people who got burned during the last $10k-$19k?
Yes a boatload of people will be wanting to get off this rocket even at break-even...


The majority of volume for people involved going back to 2017 was still sub 10k.   The rise above that was rapid and hence involved less people.   It could be said now we rise higher more easily because of that.
   I really did expect far more people to be in the 6k area to sell but I think many of these people had already bailed on the 3k test and so it was all oversold, surprisingly ready to bounce up after that.

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cocoadreamboy
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June 28, 2019, 01:44:25 AM
 #35


Every trade idea you promote is a losing one. Please stop selling shit here until you learn how to trade. You are only losing people money and you should feel bad for it.

First of all, thank you Mr. Troll. Your need to research everything I've said proves your trollness and your agenda to promote high priced buys of bitcoin.

In everything I post I council risk awareness, which obviously you are disgusted by because you need to force an agenda.

I tell people to use data. I use actual analysis and data in all my posts, you have used nothing but fear mongering for an agenda.

I don't tell people to buy or sell, all I did was point out there was a massive amount of shorts at the 9-10k range, that you could of predicted by the miner activity and that generally speaking the miners aren't wrong very often. This is just the beginning of the fall.

I dont promote trades. I promote utilizing data and logic in your investments. Something you have an extreme hatred for for some reason (paid troll *cough *cough)

Thank you paid troll! I value you for your opinion Smiley

Aaron

If you want true bitcoin data and research checkout my site:
https://www.amsinger.org
cocoadreamboy
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June 28, 2019, 01:45:39 AM
 #36

Ever thought about all the people who got burned during the last $10k-$19k?
Yes a boatload of people will be wanting to get off this rocket even at break-even...

This breather is good because we want the FOMO coming in as late as possible for optimal profits (>70k).
If bitcoin only goes up then we will start the FOMO too early and end up with only 30k per BTC.

Where is your data backing this up? Did you fail high school geometry when you had to make proofs to prove your theory?

You have no data for this, you have no logic for this. Please provide some.

If you want true bitcoin data and research checkout my site:
https://www.amsinger.org
cocoadreamboy
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June 28, 2019, 01:46:57 AM
 #37

The op is a complete tool, literally nothing he says is worth reading. This is a completely normal correction after an unsustainable parabolic rise. Hodl is the only answer if you want to be rich in a few years. If you want to be rich tomorrow, go buy a lottery ticket.

Hodl died in 2018. Intelligent people read the market and buy low and sell high based on the creation cost which you can find here:

https://www.amsinger.org

What benefit do you get from telling people to hold forever?

Thank you paid troll!

Aaron

If you want true bitcoin data and research checkout my site:
https://www.amsinger.org
cocoadreamboy
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June 28, 2019, 01:47:50 AM
 #38

Further after $13800 it'll be on the urge to reach the $15000 barrier which is why the $13800 looked unsustainable. To cross $10000 what the market suffered or experienced in terms of momentum, resistance level is very big. It took days of correction and finally marched crossing $10k.

To cross $15000 surely it is supposed to be strong enough and the same needs to be made possible through the price correction which keeps the market above $15000 sustain for a longer time period when the market correction takes place at the right point.

Do you have any data to support this theory? I think not, but if you do please share Wink

If you want true bitcoin data and research checkout my site:
https://www.amsinger.org
The Pharmacist
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June 28, 2019, 01:48:59 AM
 #39

I use LOGIC and NUMBERS to figure out my trading and holding strategies.
So you say, but my guess is that you aren't privy to complete information about the markets and what the miners are actually doing.  Unless you're a serious insider-bigwig (and you may well be, who knows), there's an awful lot of guesswork involved when trying to figure out how to play the crypto market. 

Bitcoin basically comes down to supply and demand, unlike the stock market where business factors have a huge influence on a stock's price.  But in that supply and demand there are myriad factors dictating demand--and to a lesser extent, supply.  I've always thought of it as an enormous multivariable calculus problem that keeps changing.  So your claims to use logic and numbers are laudable, I'm skeptical as to how much they can really help you as a trader.  But I could be completely ignorant and wrong.

As to the question posed in the title:  $13k wasn't sustainable because the price curve was way too steep.  Too much money poured in, too much speculation happened, and too much selling went on after bitcoin hit that mark.  The only way bitcoin is going to stick around at $13k or above is if the price/time slope is a lot more shallow.  The bitcoin market doesn't tolerate spikes very well, as you may have noticed. 

But hey, at least it didn't crash back down to $3000.  I'm totally cool with $11,350 (which is where it stands as I type this).

cocoadreamboy
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June 28, 2019, 01:49:57 AM
 #40

I'm stunned the price is $11k in June 2019. And very impressed.

Same. I expected a much slower, sustained rise similar to 2015-2016. It just goes to show you that history rhymes but never repeats.

Here's a possible bear scenario where we take a much welcome breather. Maybe the OP's "clients" will be able to break even and get their coins back after all. Measured move off .618 to a confluence of trend and horizontal support. It would keep the parabolic advance comfortably intact, with time left for another leg up before the Litecoin halving in August. This would be such an awesome setup:



Any moron can draw a line between point a and point b. Where is your logic? Where is your data?

This thread was made with data explaining why it was unsustainable, and now you are trying to hijack it with your pretty chart pictures and nonsense.

You can find historical creation cost data here:

https://www.amsinger.org

Thank you paid troll,

Aaron

If you want true bitcoin data and research checkout my site:
https://www.amsinger.org
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