Bitcoin Forum

The miners create 1800 bitcoin/ day, which means, with simple supply and demand, bitcoin will need ~$23.4 million of new investment/day just to buy the new bitcoin that is being created (not to mention holders selling new highs) to maintain that price.

I use LOGIC and NUMBERS to figure out my trading and holding strategies. I share this data with my clients on my site, please give it a look. It could have saved a lot of people money in this fervor.

https://www.amsinger.org/home-1

I will keep updating this topic as the crash continues or if I get interesting comments.

I really just want to help people save money and avoid the pain I felt in Nov 2018 when I was cleaned out for basically no reason.

What doesn't kill you makes you stronger,

Aaron

I am not a miner and i am not a professional analyst, but is it possible that all miners sell their 1800 bitcoin a day? and why would all the miners sell their 1800 bitcoins a day? and about "holders". why would they sell their bitcoins? because I suppose that many of them are willing to hold for many more years


charging $ 19.99

https://www.amsinger.org/subscriptions

yes, you " saved a lot of people money in this fervor "

Lol if $20 is breaking ya, you are small fry.

1800 btc are mined every day unless the miners are deciding to hold massive amounts of coins at massively inflated prices. Does that seem logical to you?

If you were making pencils for 10 cents and some guy offered you $10 per you would sell all your inventory in a heartbeat.

That is how financial markets and regular markets work my friend.

Agreed. That is why I blame Tom Lee. He told everyone in the beginning of this year that bitcoin's fair value is $14k. He is scamming with everyone. $14k is his target to dump hehehehe. He tricked us!

You recently called the top around $9,000. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5155893.0) You said, "This is just the beginning of the fall" and yet the market never made new lows. Your clients, if you have any, lost a lot of coins on your advice. Care to explain what went wrong with your analysis last time? You don't exactly have a track record that warrants paying you for advice.


Ah, so the bear market REKT you and now you're a perma-bear. I get it.

I have released information about optimal buy periods here:

https://www.amsinger.org/open-research (https://www.amsinger.org/open-research)

This research is replete with realtime data and logic. What are your data that you use to tell people to buy 13k bitcoin?

I am a logical investor who presents unbiased information. If my clients want to stay in the market it is their choice. I just present RISK information and present a portfolio example of how I would invest the market.

I don't tell my clients to do anything. I find them to be very intelligent people, and I am sure many of them are better traders than I am.

Aaron

Read before you call people names my friend.

It's not a crash, rather a correction (a big one though). A medium term crash should come later after further gains. 13800 level should be crossed in near future.

When did I tell people to buy BTC at $13K? That never happened.

You just told people to sell at $9K a week ago (see quoted link above), right before BTC rallied to nearly $14K. It's amazing you can sell a paid service around here with a straight face. You should demonstrate a decent track record before attempting to sell shit here. From the looks of it, you're just coming into my community and ripping people off.

I'm officially small fry but I agree with the general idea, new supply vs latent demand equates to some direction for the market.   Thats a very broad view and we obviously have large speculative swings and attempts to swing trade on a smaller time frame.    At present the market is very bullish but at some point supply is far too much for it to hold.

13,800 area is a Fib line and similarly the lows are close to another or more simply the two day average price.   It'll take time to work itself out, I assume we resolve upwards as long as we keep 12,400

It was an interesting place for the rally to take a pit stop. $13,500 is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire 2018 bear market. I've definitely seen cases where we spiked through such a fib line and then entered a significant correction.


What's the significance of $12,400? I could see us running stops below the daily pivot ~$10,550 and continuing upwards.

That is a very simplistic way of looking at it... but there is much more to it mining than a simple input/output view...

I don’t know if you are aware of the amount of people mining.... just from SlushPool there are over 15,000 active users, all of which have varied and hashrates... which means different payout ratios and varying amount of Bitcoin rewards... Some miners do not even withdraw their BTC for months, let alone sell.

Just because there are 1800 BTC created everyday, doesn’t means there needs to be $20M+ of new investment everyday...

However, there is always a cost associated with generating 1800BTC. Electricity Cost/hardware depreciation etc etc... this cost would need to be paid out regardless...

bitcoin in just taking a breather. don't you fret, that euphoric feeling will return   :D

my friend you have to accept that you are new to bitcoin and have very little understanding of its market movement. so instead of trying to sell your false guesses in form of market analysis to newbies who don't know better you are better off doing something else to make money. that way you wouldn't be the cause of some newbies losing money either.

Again, what information do you use when saying that?

My opinions are founded with knowledge of the creation cost. My opinions are founded in treating bitcoin like a highly manipulated financial market.

People say it is going to 13k, 20k, 82.5k, but they base their statements in absolute garbage and emotional nonsense.

How do you know 13,800 will be crossed in the "near future" please tell me.

Aaron

If you need 20$ for your advises it means that you are not good enough to earn from speculating on Bitcoin, so your advises are basically worthless.


I also used logic in what I wrote above. Can you beat that?

Where did I tell people to sell at $9k Mr. troll? I predicted a drop due to short interest. I told no one to sell. I told people you can predict market maneuvers by understanding market dynamics.

And yes, you person with complete inability to read English, I demonstrated why Feb 7 was an optimal time to buy. I also said that May 2 was another good time to buy based on the creation cost. If you understood the numbers it is not hard to know when bitcoin is high and when it is low. You don't, that doesn't mean my clients don't.

Thank you for cussing and demonstrating how intelligent you are.

Learn to read English,

Aaron

Any moron can make something difficult, it takes intelligence to make something simple. On average yes 1800 btc are sold per day. Yes there is an inventory, but it will eventually get sold +older coins will get sold during ridiculous highs.

At 13k yes you will need $20M+ to sustain the price. That is why it dumped so fast. It was clear market manipulation up.

I made this system to help people understand the reality of bitcoin. It is designed to help people find the right time to buy, and make money off the morons buying "on the moon".

Much love,

Aaron

No doubt, enjoy making financial decisions in euphoria lol

My clients will most assuredly enjoy taking advantage of your ecstasy.

Aaron

The pay wall exists to protect my clients and not give profitable information to lookey loos on message boards.

You used false logic in what you wrote above, and I did in fact beat that.

Aaron

P.S. You guys are really mad I am not giving my hard work away for free lol

1. You didn't convince anybody that your advises are valuable at all.
2. You wrongly assumed that I want your work for free. I don't. I just tried to help any unknowing newbie lose money by blindly following (you or) any unknown people over internet trading advises.

Again and again, exchangers ruined situation. The fall was caused after crash of coinbase, withing minutes after their announced crash, price felt by 1400$ (They announced that their API and website weren't working functionally). Currently bitcoin's price is 11900, very near to 12K, hope yesterday's situation won't ruin everything so hardly and soon we will see rise again. Let's wait some hours and results which will be put in the end of day may answer further questions, if it continue to rise again or will we be in stuck for a while?

1. For some reason your prerogative is to convince yourself that bitcoin is magical and doesn't follow simple financial rules. good luck to you
2. Clearly you would struggle paying $20/ month, its ok bro

I don't give internet trading advice (you should learn spelling).

I tell people the creation cost of BTC, BCH, ETH, and LTC as well as the cash flows and other pertinent data.

They are more prepared to profit from downturns and massive manipulated pumps than others, that is what I sell PREPARATION and AWARENESS.

You do want it for free clearly, if only to troll on it lol that is why I made this sample:

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis (https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis)

So cheap people can try to figure out what is happening with month old research ;)

Aaron

@ $12k btc the market would need $21.6M of new investment every day. If you think $7.8Billion will be flooding into bitcoin this year then bitcoin will stay at $12k.

The only way to know the bottom is to know the creation cost, which it often comes near, December 2018, February 2019, March 2019, and May 2 2019 are all times bitcoin has come close to the price floor recently.

You can see how close it got on May 2 here:

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis (https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis)

Aaron

To my opinion it was because of exchanges. Situation with coinbase interrupted positive trend for a while but enough for market to lose confidence. Now some representatives of conspiracy theories would probably say that wasn't accidental but the truth is you can never actually predict such situations.
Anyway, we'll see how far current correction will go, maybe is this just small temporary disturbance.

Perhaps the exchanges had something to do with it, but what I am saying is naturally (in a vacuum) bitcoin must receive a specific amount of investment to maintain high prices over time. There is a reason 1k bitcoin was insanely huge prices during mt gox, and is basically nothing now.

The data I publish puts the true cash flows in perspective. The market must correct. To where? Only my clients and I will know, once the data comes in. ;)

Aaron

You said price was going to crash from $9K and you strongly implied people should sell. Right here. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5155893.0) Anyone can verify via timestamps what the price was.

A few key excerpts:


You predicted a drop from $9K which never came. You said the reason for your analysis was "to find the optimal profit exit point", i.e. when to sell. You said "this is just the beginning of the fall" implying strongly that people should sell. Then you further warned that not following your advice meant "buying the highs and selling the lows."

Yet anyone following your analysis literally would have sold the lows and missed out on a 50% gain. Even after a 25% crash, price is still way above where you said it would fall from.


You "demonstrated" these things in June! LOL. No one is impressed by hindsight analysis.

You said you were short on June 13th. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5151637.msg51458019#msg51458019) The price never went below the June 13th daily low after that post. It went all the way to $13,800 and still hasn't.

Every trade idea you promote is a losing one. Please stop selling shit here until you learn how to trade. You are only losing people money and you should feel bad for it.

Ever thought about all the people who got burned during the last $10k-$19k?
Yes a boatload of people will be wanting to get off this rocket even at break-even...

This breather is good because we want the FOMO coming in as late as possible for optimal profits (>70k).
If bitcoin only goes up then we will start the FOMO too early and end up with only 30k per BTC.

The op is a complete tool, literally nothing he says is worth reading. This is a completely normal correction after an unsustainable parabolic rise. Hodl is the only answer if you want to be rich in a few years. If you want to be rich tomorrow, go buy a lottery ticket.

At least he added his address on his site so burnt people can go to his house....  ;)

Further after $13800 it'll be on the urge to reach the $15000 barrier which is why the $13800 looked unsustainable. To cross $10000 what the market suffered or experienced in terms of momentum, resistance level is very big. It took days of correction and finally marched crossing $10k.

To cross $15000 surely it is supposed to be strong enough and the same needs to be made possible through the price correction which keeps the market above $15000 sustain for a longer time period when the market correction takes place at the right point.

I'm stunned the price is $11k in June 2019. And very impressed.

Same. I expected a much slower, sustained rise similar to 2015-2016. It just goes to show you that history rhymes but never repeats.

Here's a possible bear scenario where we take a much welcome breather. Maybe the OP's "clients" will be able to break even and get their coins back after all. Measured move off .618 to a confluence of trend and horizontal support. It would keep the parabolic advance comfortably intact, with time left for another leg up before the Litecoin halving in August. This would be such an awesome setup:

https://i.imgur.com/GPkl2J7.png

Great analysis, I see no reason why shouldn't we visit 9.5k , looking at it from a different point of view using the


https://i.imgur.com/UvMWImV.png


using only the 5 week moving average, notice how we always tend to correct all the way down to that MA , this time we were a bit too far and it only makes sense that we head back to where it is 9.5k - 10k  before taking off again.

as long as we are above the 5MA on the weekly, the moment should be fast to the upside , if we do close below the 5 week MA then we could correct all the way back to 8k.

overall, we are officially in an up trend, looking for good entry points is going to be more beneficial than trying to short the peaks, i expect many bear traps to come.

I agree with that, the easiest thing to do is follow the trend so as of the last few months thats been entries long.   I made small trades short that rarely make much even when correct because price keeps checking back up higher.   Even if it falls harder you have to be present at that moment really


The majority of volume for people involved going back to 2017 was still sub 10k.   The rise above that was rapid and hence involved less people.   It could be said now we rise higher more easily because of that.
   I really did expect far more people to be in the 6k area to sell but I think many of these people had already bailed on the 3k test and so it was all oversold, surprisingly ready to bounce up after that.

First of all, thank you Mr. Troll. Your need to research everything I've said proves your trollness and your agenda to promote high priced buys of bitcoin.

In everything I post I council risk awareness, which obviously you are disgusted by because you need to force an agenda.

I tell people to use data. I use actual analysis and data in all my posts, you have used nothing but fear mongering for an agenda.

I don't tell people to buy or sell, all I did was point out there was a massive amount of shorts at the 9-10k range, that you could of predicted by the miner activity and that generally speaking the miners aren't wrong very often. This is just the beginning of the fall.

I dont promote trades. I promote utilizing data and logic in your investments. Something you have an extreme hatred for for some reason (paid troll *cough *cough)

Thank you paid troll! I value you for your opinion :)

Aaron

Where is your data backing this up? Did you fail high school geometry when you had to make proofs to prove your theory?

You have no data for this, you have no logic for this. Please provide some.

Hodl died in 2018. Intelligent people read the market and buy low and sell high based on the creation cost which you can find here:

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

What benefit do you get from telling people to hold forever?

Thank you paid troll!

Aaron

Do you have any data to support this theory? I think not, but if you do please share ;)

So you say, but my guess is that you aren't privy to complete information about the markets and what the miners are actually doing.  Unless you're a serious insider-bigwig (and you may well be, who knows), there's an awful lot of guesswork involved when trying to figure out how to play the crypto market. 

Bitcoin basically comes down to supply and demand, unlike the stock market where business factors have a huge influence on a stock's price.  But in that supply and demand there are myriad factors dictating demand--and to a lesser extent, supply.  I've always thought of it as an enormous multivariable calculus problem that keeps changing.  So your claims to use logic and numbers are laudable, I'm skeptical as to how much they can really help you as a trader.  But I could be completely ignorant and wrong.

As to the question posed in the title:  $13k wasn't sustainable because the price curve was way too steep.  Too much money poured in, too much speculation happened, and too much selling went on after bitcoin hit that mark.  The only way bitcoin is going to stick around at $13k or above is if the price/time slope is a lot more shallow.  The bitcoin market doesn't tolerate spikes very well, as you may have noticed. 

But hey, at least it didn't crash back down to $3000.  I'm totally cool with $11,350 (which is where it stands as I type this).

Any moron can draw a line between point a and point b. Where is your logic? Where is your data?

This thread was made with data explaining why it was unsustainable, and now you are trying to hijack it with your pretty chart pictures and nonsense.

You can find historical creation cost data here:

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

Thank you paid troll,

Aaron

This is fundamental analysis not Technical analysis. Technical analysis is worthless in these situations. you can find actual analysis and data here on my site:

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

Please do not troll with more nonsense technical analysis promoting what you want people to do with no data or awareness.

Thank you paid troll,

Aaron

P.S. Why else would someone spend the time to add this to a logic thread? lol

The only thing that is necessary is time to return the price back to logical levels. You seem to focus entirely on the price of the coin vs looking at the reasons for the price of the coin. 13k required WAAAY too much continuous investment to maintain. Even a dumb person with my data could of seen that. @ 11,350 the bitcoin market will need $20.43 million per day to maintain ;) good luck with that lol

Why would one promote this type of thinking? What makes sense to me is whoever manipulated the price upwards needs more liquidity. Without promoting fantasies about bitcoin they won't be able to make all the money they need to make.

If you want to see real data May's data is free on my site:

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

Please check it out it is very important to understand how much your risk is,

Aaron

"Thank you paid troll"

I'd rather be a paid troll (which I'm not) than a drooling, knuckle dragging, mouth breathing inbred like you.
$20.43 million per day to maintain what price again? where the everloving fuck did you get this moronic formula from?
Deep inside your ass is the answer.

Thank you for your abusive and vulgar cuss words and insults. It is very professional. You seem very professional.

Thank you paid troll.

I've seen this thinking a million times over. It's pitiful to witness the lack of numerical and scale comprehension. It's a bigger number than your bank account. Guess what, the world is a big place with a big number of people too.

Divided by all the countries in the world that is $100,000 per country per day.

Hold me.

Grayscale, one company, alone is supposedly buying 20% of mined coins per month.

As for the original question $13,800 was a price reached in no time at all. It stands to reason it'll disappear in no time at all as well. There was no epic struggle to reach it. No support was built around it.

And consider that there are a lot of people who will exit the market from 14k levels and above till 19-20k.
They will be in fear that this will be the top and they will keep selling every time the price rises.
In my opinion, from this levels and higher we will find difficulties in raising the price. Maybe it is time for alts to gain value.

Well said mate.
I am agree with you.
You need to understand how does the price affects.
The Price of Bitcoin increases or decreases,  if the marketcap of the coin increases.
So when the trading volume increases,  the price increases and when the trading volume decreases,  it decreases.
Hope now you will be cleared about your 13k usd thing.
Good luck mate.

That would be $20.43 million/day with not a single cent out every day. No one taking profit, No one selling. Very unsustainable.

The massive price jump is market price manipulation plain and simple. You can't easily manipulate the market for long periods of time, that takes very large pockets and also a reason to spend that much money. It is very simple to buy up an order book in 10 minutes and shove the price up, if you have the cash.

Really every county is going to spend $100,000 per day on bitcoin? So people in the Congo are going to keep shoving money into bitcoin? They can't buy food, but they will keep supporting an insane price on bitcoin lol great logic.

Aaron

https://www.amsinger.org

This is the first logical statement in a while. Many of the alts are also overvalued, but there is one that demonstrates good creation cost and value to purchase.

My clients know which of the alts demonstrates good value because the data and the numbers do not lie or have an agenda.

Thank you it is nice to hear from a non heated person,

Aaron

I need to understand "how does the price affects."... very good English.

Volume numbers are massively inflated, bitcoin is actually a much smaller market than people think. Here is an article that outlines many of the ways the volumes are inflated and truly false:

https://www.sec.gov/comments/sr-nysearca-2019-01/srnysearca201901-5164833-183434.pdf (https://www.sec.gov/comments/sr-nysearca-2019-01/srnysearca201901-5164833-183434.pdf)

It is a rather large sec memorandum, but it uses intelligent methods of finding the false volume.

It is laughable to think that BCH gets halve its market cap traded EVERY day.

Aaron

People always fixate on the mined coins. They don't seem to recall there's 17 million more that could be sold any moment.

Best of luck with your future endeavours, youngling. Don't go betting the farm without some development of the perspective end of things.

Thank you for your advice, but I measure my risk in all my investments. I do not gamble. I invest.

You seem to be back tracking on your previous statement saying this price will be supported. There are 1800 new coins mined/ day as well as the 17 million already in existence. Wouldn't that prove my point of this price being unsustainable even more?

Thank you, I will continue to monitor my risk and keep my investments in order.

I hope you do too,

Aaron

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

The reason for sure to know bictoin has been stopped while no one knows, but I'm sure if bitcoin will crawl back up at the beginning of next week, maybe bitcoin is taking a step to make a very good move going forward

This is a thread that is trying to avoid the wishes and dreams of many of the other threads. I am saying it is dubious to think that bitcoin will remain this high ($13.8k-$10k) for very long due to the nature of supply and demand as it relates to price.

I am trying to get people to see bitcoin as a financial tool not as a mystical being. Once you treat it as a financial tool you are able to profit from the FOMO and market manipulation consistently and clearly.

Aaron

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

Bullish does not mean the price cannot collapse and down, sometimes the price will be corrected because of the high supply, many users will secure profits because of high prices, but after that the price increase will continue, don't be surprised by that, this condition is very reasonable

You are basing none of your analysis on data or numbers, just opinion and wishes.

I really hope you don't actually invest money into the things you talk about. It is irresponsible of you to say this on this thread.

Aaron

Real data please.

Here is an update on this chart with adjusted levels. It's playing out well so far. We bounced strongly off the .618 and are threatening to swing back to yesterday's lows:

https://i.imgur.com/RsA6u2Y.png

Having said that, I am not super confident this projection will play out to completion. I'd say there is ~40% chance. If not, we'll probably slosh around in a sideways range for a couple days before swinging back up to the highs.

The short vs. long trends on Bitfinex are troubling for anyone expecting downside. Shorts are already at inflated levels and they only continued to rise during this correction. Longs continue to fall. This dynamic might limit the downside.

But did you use NUMBERS? 🤣

I just want to point out that these shorts only prove that there still are a lot of people who are stuck in the mentality of 2018 and the bear market thinking it should not be over even though it has been over for months. and lets not forget that all this time that we were rising, each time price went up and slowed down, the number of shorts skyrocketed because of exactly what I said above. but price still continued going upwards.
for example recently someone was arguing that having this many shorts means we won't go above $10k and it shows a big drop coming, then we shot above $10k and it didn't even stop there!

Please stop putting your nonsense charts on here. That is not the point of this thread. If you want to spread your charts please make your own thread.

I am attempting to help people use logic and financial know how to understand bitcoin. Your Trend analysis does not help at all in that regard. You clearly have no idea about the true nature of the market.

Aaron

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

Yes

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis (https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis)

Thank you Mr. Troll,

Aaron

Perhaps you are stuck in the mentality of 2017 thinking moon moon moon. I have stated earlier why $13.8K was unsustainable. It has to do with the cash flow of bitcoin. Cash flow that you can see on my site, and my clients see automatically when I give them summaries every Monday.

You assume the price is a magical number not tied to any reality. You more than most would need my site so that you can understand that what you see as magical price movement is actually maket manipulation over short periods.

Please use numbers and reality in this thread. Not dreams and wishes.

Aaron

https://www.amsinger.org/ (https://www.amsinger.org/)

There is no need to be rude to each other, this is just a technical analysis and I do not want to know if you are like this for a
technical analysis of a currency how would you be if the topic is a personal stuff. Both of you could be right, both of you could be wrong, one of you could be right and the other could be wrong.

This is technical analysis and from the past 6 years I have been involved with bitcoin I can clearly say (and I hope after 6 years I earned that right) some technical analysis turns out to be true while some of them turn out to be wrong, which I think everyone can say not just me, we have seen hundreds of technical analysis during this bull run, some of them were right and some of the were wrong. This one here could be right maybe its not sustainable or maybe its wrong and its sustainable, who knows? Only time will tell but you guys should be calmer about it.

My analysis is not technical; it is fundamental. Fundamental analysis does not predict price movements based on previous prices, technical analysis does.

In comparison price to earnings ratios (P/E ratios) in stocks is fundamental analysis. It is not "wrong sometimes". P/E ratios demonstrate the health of a company based on its legally required financial submissions. It is not guesswork; it is financial accounting.

When I say $13,800 BTC requires a continual investment of ~$23.4 million/ day to pay out the miners for their 1800 btc/day contribution, It is reality not guesswork. Whether a person thinks that $23.4 million/day is sustainable it is up to them. But that the $23.4 million/day is needed is a financial reality.

Trying to input poor technical analysis into a fundamental analysis thread is attempting to change the subject and is off topic. I have to smack these people down when they try to pollute a fundamental analysis with off topic technical analysis drivel.

There are plenty of technical analysis threads and boards, but this is a fundamental analysis thread. I need to spread the fact that there is true fundamental analysis based on the creation cost of bitcoin and crypto. Most people do not know that there is actual cash flow and fundamentals backing these coins.

Check out cash flow and creation cost stats on my site:

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis (https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis)

Much love and thank you for bringing this to attention,

Aaron

Ok here is some technical  ::)


https://i.imgur.com/cICHEQz.png


The 10 SMA on the daily is still holding strong, there is a good chance we push right through 13.8K to 16K without the need to correct, tho it's more likely that we do test the higher 9k area which is where the 20 SMA at.


Thank you mad troll. ;D

i'm glad there's a few people upping the value of your thread with analysis that's actually useful. it balances out the irrational stuff you're trying to sell to unassuming noobs.

like i told you in your other thread, your entire mode of analysis defies logic. hash rate follows price. investors (ie supply and demand) don't care what miner costs are and they certainly aren't monitoring hash rate changes. miners OTOH are extremely interested in the spot prices investors are wiling to pay because it determines the viability of their mining operations.

the vast majority of the bitcoin supply is not newly mined coins---miners have an exponentially smaller effect on supply than you suggest.

Thanks I guess?

Thank you paid troll.

You have used no data to support your statement. You have used no logic to support your statement. You haven't even used any numbers at all. You are simply saying words. Words tied to nothing.

You demonstrate a lack of understanding of how bitcoin works on a fundamental level. You do not seem to understand that cash flow is the most important part of any financial article.

The miners create 657,000 bitcoin per year, that is a significant amount of coin. They represent the largest and most stable source of cash flow supporting the price of bitcoin.

What purpose do you have saying your empty words on here?

But thank you any way.

Many thanks paid troll!

Aaron

You can find sample cash flow and data here if you would like to gain from 6 years of experience monitoring the growth and development of bitcoin:

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis (https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis)

you haven't demonstrated that. what i said was common sense logic---due to the difficulty adjustment algorithm, miner costs adjust to price. therefore, price directly affects hash rate, not the other way around.

you have done nothing to prove your claims that price can be derived from hash rate. you just keep repeating these statements about "cash flow" without any data or logic to back them.

you're not providing proof that your analysis is effective. in fact, your predictions have all been wrong! you're just throwing a bunch of useless numbers out there and hoping it makes you look intelligent enough for noobs to buy your service.


what about the other nearly 18 million coins that have already been distributed over the past decade? market demand is a hell of a lot stronger than just absorbing miner supply!

your analysis essentially doesn't seem to consider demand at all.


like it or not, if you can't demonstrate value, OGs will keep calling you out when you try to sell a service here.

demonstrate your value.

I seconded!

Theres no such technical analysis that would able to predict on whats the price ahead precisely.We would only know that the said analysis is true when we already reach the said price that had been targeted but somehow we wont able to put up conclusion that those indicators or tools does really work.

That's exactly the point. High levels of shorts = strong buying pressure, because shorts must be bought back to close the positions. Low levels of longs = weaker selling pressure, so price can rise more easily. Sustaining these price levels while maintaining such high shorts from lower prices suggests shorts will continue to be squeezed.

These indicators aren't the be-all-end-all of supply and demand, but they definitely affect it. They provide a glimpse of sentiment regarding which side of the market traders are piled on. Markets tend to pursue maximum pain so when most traders are short, we go up.


Long and short levels =/= TA and have nothing to do with charts. They specifically relate to Bitcoin's supply and demand.

You finally used a number! 18, I'm pretty impressed!

I'm so proud of you troll! Thank you so much paid troll!

You used your first number.... They said you can't teach moronic trolls new tricks, but I said no! You CAN teach morons new tricks!

Thanks paid troll!

Aaron

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis (https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis)

I know you have trouble reading english Mr. Troll, but this is a thread focused on understanding the fundamental cash flow needs of bitcoin based on its active supply increases due to mining and the cash requirements needed to compensate the work of said miners.

You are a cute little troll! Yes you are! Cute little troll! I love it when your little tail wags!

Thanks paid troll!

Aaron

P.S. If you would like to see the creation cost and learn about understanding risk in crypto please check out my sample analysis!

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis (https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis)

So you focus on one aspect of supply, while ignoring all other aspects of supply and demand? Is that the long and short of it?


This really makes me want to pay you money. You seem like a real professional. ;)

For some reason I think that you have your own purposes for being on this board. I don't think it is to help others or bring new information to light. I think your desire is to pursue a specific agenda regardless of the effects you cause or the people you hurt.

I do indeed wish that you find fulfillment in your life going forward. I don't hate the playa.

But once again.... THANK YOU PAID TROLL!

Much love,

Aaron

It is not possible for bitcoin to stay in that position because due to growth it always needs some correction in order to increase it to further level. Don't bother on time again the price of bitcoin will surely increase in the market.

It can still break the $13800 area. The reason why it took such a hard fall was because it was almost up 20% in less than 24 hours and it had over 1 billion of open positions which were mostly high leverage.

When the sell-off started, there were tons of liquidations and towards the end I think $200-$250 million of open interest was evaporated, probably a world record for BTC.

Basically too many people were too bullish and didn't think a 35% pullback was possible and got rekt. It happened many times in the past, especially with Bitcoin.

I think as long as sellers do not sell at these prices then buyers do not need to spend that much money neither. We can theoretically speaking can increase the price of bitcoin without spending a single dollar. How? Simply just nobody buys but sellers do not want to sell at these prices so everyone removes their sell orders and then the lowest amount of bitcoin being sold is 20 thousand dollars and people buy there, that way from here to 20 thousand dollars there are no sellers at all and only at 20 thousand dollars there are sellers which would mean bitcoin price all of a sudden becomes 20 thousand dollars. That is just an example and it would never happen but it shows how we can just sustain the price increase by not selling as much as buying a lot as well.

The 13K USD price was unsustainable because the whales+HODLers+small traders+lucky noobs started selling their btc to cash out the profits and that selling pressure was stronger than the buying pressure coming from the whales+traders+possible institutional investors(I'm not quite sure about the third group).
There's support for 11K USD,which is great.

It is because no matter how excellent a person is in their TA, it is still a guess.  No one knows what will exactly happen on the next hours for Bitcoin.  TA had become a norm so somehow the market moves along to what it intended to be making some of the TA correct, but for those whales who do not follow it, can easily bust that TA made by any seasoned analyst.  And besides, why does there are several TA method?  Because each method is not accurate to tell the next movement of the price.  Does this TA predict this recent price crash?  

---

It was unsustainable ($13,800) because several holders exit for a profit and probably this:


 ;D

good points about TA, i feel like people are putting too much faith into it, and many of them are even pretty bad at making an analysis too!
in any case about this i have to say this is the only reason for the drops. just like any other big rise, this was met with a small short term bubble which needed a correction. and this correction starts by short term aka day traders selling their coins to get their short term and big profit out to get ready to buy back at the bottom of the dip. the only problem was the follow up market reaction to that simple move! which was filled with panic.

Am I the only guy with a longview who's actually quite happy to see Bitcoin just below $10k again? No, I know I'm not, cause you can see all those sneaky orderwalls being filled up, you can see the freelancers like me filling in their invoices and trying to rush work done during this window of dipping prices, you can definitely see Google Trends still growing (sorry, I know, I shouldn't use this!).

Remember, it took a few weeks to pump 40%. It'll happen a bit slower this time around, but it'll happen. I mean, it's climbing back up now anyway 4% just in this last hour.

I'm not remotely bothered myself and I find it a little strange that people who've been here a thousand times before have been getting uptight. The rise appeared with little effort so it stands to reason it'll peter out in a similarly casual fashion.

Five figures is clearly important to them. The market didn't appear to feel the same.

You are not using any data, information, or logic to support your view. I use the creation cost to understand where the balance point is for bitcoin. When it is high it will face natural pressure to go back down, and when it is down it will face natural upward pressure.

I have a site where you can go to get this information:

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

My goal is to help people get out of magical thinking and start making real money.

Aaron

You have used not logic numbers or information to prove this statement. If we are throwing out empty hyperbole then a monkey can write the play Hamlet. It CAN happen lol

You can find true analysis here:

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

Hope this helps you see the natural mechanics of the market,

Aaron

How can you expect no one to sell in a market? The miners specifically are paying money through electricity and depreciation to create bitcoin, and you expect them to take a loss?

This is complete and utter nonsense. I have a feeling you have very little track record buying and selling crypto for profit.

You can find true educational material and logic here:

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

I hope you enjoy,

Aaron

This is a day or two old, and it is already proven incorrect. 11k was not supported. You did not mention the miners at all. They are the largest "institution" that is active in crypto. They pay for all the new coins and sell them to recoup their costs and make profit. That is the natural flow of bitcoin.

Why does selling for profit make you mad? I am happy when people make profit.

Check out the creation cost of bitcoin here, see the cash flow and the reality:

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

Aaron

I don't find any logic behind the quoted market price to be unsustainable. When the price is on the uptrend we can experience such a kind of market move at several points. Most of the time it gets close to the round of value, where it is predicted to go forward after some correction. Same is with the $13800, further it is predicted to reach $15000 barrier which lets the price touch $20k in a very short time period.

Fundamental analysis is not a guess. At certain hash rate levels and electricity rates there is a specific cost to create a coin.

Every TA (which is usually morons with rulers) was saying BTC 18k! 20k! 82.5k! On June 26-now Just absolute nonsense. They are looking for clicks and views, and most of them care nothing for the people that read their garbage.

If you want to know when the risk level for bitcoin will be reduced please check out my site:

https://www.amsinger.org  (https://www.amsinger.org)

Aaron

You are ignoring the reality that it costs money to create a bitcoin. It is called Proof of Work (PoW). It is the fundamental reason bitcoins have any value AT ALL.

The miners collectively create 1800 bitcoin/day by spending money computing problems. This money needs to be recouped, so they sell their newly made coins. This is the natural pressure of high bitcoin. The reason it needs to increase 40% or whatever in a day is because sustained growth like that is not possible. Now the bubble prices have to deal with the sustained pressure of 1800 new coins/day, and that will take it down over time NATURALLY.

If you want to learn the basics how bitcoin risk and cash flow work, please check out my site:

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

I made it to help people to better understand and profit from crypto,

Aaron

You don't have all the data required to analyze mining supply. Different miners have different margins, access to more/less efficient rigs, differing electricity costs. Some like Bitmain are much better capitalized (to hold mining rewards through price drops) than others. You really have no idea where the pain points are for miners. You can only average things out with incomplete information.

More importantly, mining supply is only a small aspect of supply and demand, as pointed out earlier. Not only are you looking at incomplete information, but your analysis is based on only a small sliver of the actual fundamentals.

Of course your analysis is a guess!


That's patently false. You aren't looking very hard.

Oh thank you so much paid troll. How is 657,000 newly created bitcoin/ year miner?

If I am false in my view of TA's You have not been to trading view, r/btc, r/bitcoin, or the very speculation board we are on during a pump.

You are shameful in the way that you are trying to mislead people.

I am trying to tell people the truth and provide them with information. You are trying to spread disinformation, and badly at that lol

THANK YOU PAID TROLL

If you would like to see true information about bitcoin, bitcoin cash, Ethereum, and litecoin check out my site!

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

Always a pleasure helping people see some real numbers,

Aaron

And? What's your other data? Where is your data to analyze demand? Market price is a function of supply and demand, not one small aspect of supply.

You just keep repeating over and over the market can't possibly support Bitcoin's inflation, without any logic or any attempt to take a deep dive into the fundamentals. "$23.4 million of new investment/day? IMPOSSIBLE!" That's the extent of your analysis!

Even the most ignorant of investors understands that not every mined BTC is immediately dumped onto the market. Miners merely need to cover overheads, and large industrial miners are backed by significant seed money. They are well capitalized and planning their business years out, not immediately selling mining rewards as if they were living paycheck to paycheck.

And by the way, the inflation rate will be halved in a year. And in four years after that it will be halved again. You should probably stop using inflation numbers that don't reflect reality. There will only ever be 21 million BTC, and almost 18 million of them have already been distributed. Next year, there will only be 3 million more BTC mined until 2140. 657,000 BTC mined per year? LOL. I pity the fool that pays for your analysis.


Just like you, there have been countless bears calling the top all the way up. And they have been wrong for months and months now. At $4K, at $6K, at $8K, at $10K......on Twitter, Tradingview, here.

I visited the sites and I think you have knowledge on how to analyze the market but the way you express your knowledge here did not put all the factors into consideration! How will you said or trying to assume that all the coins that are mine in a day are sold that same day?  I disagree with this and common sense enable us to understand that miners are also holding for better profits. Miners are not dumpers and their influence on the market is limited! Those that cause the last corrections are the whales that were selling and the buying order was very low.

Thank you paid troll,

Find sample analysis here:

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis (https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis)

Aaron

The weekly sample has some minor issues. "Copyright © *|CURRENT_YEAR|* *|LIST:COMPANY|*, All rights reserved. "  ;)

Thanks bro! If that is all you could find, I'm pretty happy.

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

Aaron

Buying at the right time is the difference between 1BTC and 2BTC. There is no doubt in my mind that 5 years from now bitcoin will be worth significantly more. The question is in 5 years would you rather have 1 bitcoin or 2?

I give people the information they need to get 2 instead of 1,

Aaron

Hey OP i'm not going to join your site for the following reasons:

1. You mentioned that you are investor and you also said that HOLDing died in 2018. So you are an investor for very short times if you are not HODLing. That is stretching "investment" too thin.
2. You mentioned that you do not follow emotions. This could be right in perhaps pharmaceutical company shares market, but BTC jumps +-%% based on an API crash on one exchange.

I would also like to second some of the replies already given:
1. The number of BTCs mined has nothing to do with the number of BTCs sold: mining companies cut a fee for maintenance, many go out of pocket instead of liquidating BTC.
2. Over the long term, BTC has never been forgiving of people who sell. People who draw charts and lines are either professional day traders or snake oil sellers.

1. Holding is inefficient, intelligent people buy low risk and sell high risk.

2. If you trade on emotions, good luck. People believe whatever story they want when it comes to manipulation.

3. So you are arguing that every mining company is pulling a loss and choosing to avoid profit during profitable times? That is poor reasoning and lacking in analysis or understanding.

4. People who sold @12k-20k are still "being forgiven". I agree with you in this: chart line drawers are usually con men especially in bitcoin.

My clients will enjoy buying when you sell low and selling when you buy high. ;) You have no way of knowing what is reasonably priced and what is garbage priced.

Aaron

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

It is now 9 days from the posting of this thread, and the bitcoin price has faced continuous draining from the stated price. We are $2,500 down from the peak price.

The reason I was aware of this was because I am aware of the creation cost of bitcoin. I am aware of the amount of cash flow needed to support prices over time. I am aware that currently it is unlikely that bitcoin would of been able to get ~$24 million/day of new longterm investment.

It was very possible that the price could have climbed higher and higher from $13,800, but if it had, the decline would have been sharper and more aggressive.

If you want to know this type of cash flow and financial based information about bitcoin, please visit my site:

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

Much love and continued profit growth!

Aaron

Having money on an exchange is higher risk than a cold wallet. So HODL has less risk.
MtGox, BTCe etc. Have shut down with a lot of losers.
If you call it inefficient and want to optimize profits that's greed (point 2). Better to HODL and make good profits.

Mining is the only anonymous way to get bitcoin and yes they initially mine at a profit and then at a loss.
It's an averaging strategy like buying the dip which is also buying during a downward market.
Also mining heats your house 😁

If you had the Golden goose then you wouldn't be sharing the info.
Most analysts with followers create distributed pump 'n dump using other people's money by "advice". Self fulfilling prophecy..
And they pay you which is a good benefit.

You do not understand what hodl is. It is holding coins and has nothing to do with the location of stored coins.

You also have no idea how mining works, and have simply posted this to change the subject from what I was saying earlier about how cash flow affects the price of bitcoin. You seem to have an agenda.

If you want to know cash flow and financial based information about bitcoin, please visit my site:

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

Much love and continued profit growth!

Aaron

You are making a number of pious statements at people who've been thriving here for vastly longer than you have and will continue to thrive long after you've either terminally blown it or chosen to relax and acknowledge you're not the fount of previously untapped wisdom.

There's a fine rule for successful story telling that applies in many other areas of life - show, don't tell.

I'm glad you asked! You can see a sample analysis here:

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis (https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis)

Much love,

Aaron

  It doesn't mean unsustainable, that just happened we're into corrections period right now because of group of hodler who choose to sell. After that no need to worry; market will recover back what has been lost. This is the trend of volatile market, it sometimes up and goes down like a roller coaster ride. Just go on with its flow and you'll be better once everything will be back to green days.

Please use actual data or financial analysis (not technical analysis i.e. line drawing) for your statements. You are making many statements and not backing up any of them.

Check out my data here:

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

Much love,

Aaron

Yeah, just because prices are reversed, that doesn't mean there's unsustainable, the correction is sure to happen on every pump,
so don't assume that the price increase is over, the road is still very long mate, believe me you will find lots of price increases ahead

What information are you using to back up your statement? I have said that $13.8k was unsustainable because it would take $24.8 million per day of longterm investment to sustain that price, and I don't see that as realistic or possible for a long period of time.

It seems like you are speaking out with no basis in reality or understanding of the financial needs of bitcoin to sustain its price.

You can find helpful data on the subject here:

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

Much love,

Aaron

So that would be fundamentals when Bitcoin is highly speculative.   I wish it could be decided on fundamentals that easily as its much harder to judge a crowd that have the herd selling or buying off quite arbitrary reasons.

The price would be much lower if we purely went from revenue of business done, its hard to say on the exchanged worth privately done and how that affects price and what other currency is available as an alternative to those people but I think the majority of support is viewable.   The part we dont get is the speculative holds where they dont need BTC but they estimate higher worth then now.


13k was just profit taking and its recovered for the last few days now.   I think its accumulating (https://i.imgur.com/k1XaJX3.png) now upto about 12474 and will see some selling there

https://i.imgur.com/BjCpmEG.png

I specifically did not understand what this is all about, i understand that the difference between a huge profit and minimal is the time in which you invest and the time in which you exit, if you are smart individual who has more knowledge about making money from thin air, why don't you start a new thread and post all your research material regarding it  :P.

@OP The price of bitcoin is trying to break through another resistance and it failed and it is not a new thing, every time the price tries to break certain resistance points it wont succeed most of the time and yet again the market will try to valuation again in the next week or so by the speed in which the market broke many resistance level in the past.

I have been watching bitcoin for 6 years. I went to Texas A&M for finance and I fell in love with bitcoin. The problem I see with Technical Analysis and looking at bitcoin as a stock is the fact that whales have the ability to move the price WHENEVER and WHERE EVER they like. The whales can move the price to 20k in a day. They can tank the price to the creation cost or even below in a day also.

I made the creation cost analysis so that no matter what the price is doing I know exactly where the largest buying support in the market it. Within certain ranges it is easier for the whales to manipulate, at other ranges it is harder.

Had I had this data over these 6 years I could have more effectively dollar cost averaged in during low risk times and out at high risk times. I made it to help me understand what this beast called bitcoin is doing and is capable of doing within reason.

I see bitcoin as a heavily manipulated commodity. A heavily manipulated commodity that people can PROFIT well from. I just want to make it easier and safer.

Much love,

Aaron

Honestly I was wiped out in the Nov 2018 crash, so I spent the remainder of my bitcoin on developing this system, learning programming, etc. So I am not "rolling in it" any more like December 2017 ;) I need clients to continue my research, and I think it is better to protect my clients with a paywall. They are paying for the data so they get exclusivity.

Personally I see most "resistances" as easily breakable by the whales whenever they want. My previous post went into a little more detail about this so look up ^ ;)

If I was Ray Dalio and I was already set I would publish it all for free, but I am a 26 year old entrepreneur who is beginning his path. I must learn and become stronger.

I just want to get stronger,

Aaron

why do u think miners sell all their BTC?

Yes its does sound logical.

Get debt funded mining op

mine coins

go bankrupt

coins hodl

2 your analogy is flawed, making pencils for 10 cents, only 100 pencils can ever be made. wait for $1000 each

Because they have to pay for food:

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

I just redesigned my site to make it easier to understand!

Aaron

Very astute with excellent English and grammar lol

Thanks paid troll!

Hey everybody, I have been listening and adapting my site and my analysis to suit you better.

I have just completed another redesign, that specifically aims to help people understand cash flow and creation costs easier.

Please check it out if you have some free time:

https://www.amsinger.org (https://www.amsinger.org)

I find this topic important to spread. Logical understanding of how bitcoin works is the key to profiting off of it,

Aaron

Guys, I suggest everyone to do their personal research and not buy the advice of different "experts". No one can know in which direction the market will move, except for those who help it move in the direction it needs. Therefore, try to read more, analyze and if you can’t guess the market movement, then just buy cryptocurrency, store it and use it without thinking about the future price.

Well, that is one of the main problems in.the community. Paying too much attention to so called experts and then making decisions based on their predictions and analysis.
For some reason users believe that someone else knows better and therefore they ignore their own experience and information.
Don't bother with predictions, they will not help.

Thank you. This is financial analysis.

https://www.amsinger.org/bitcointalk

13800 was effect of parabolic run .Bitcoin dominance raised from above 50% to 75%.
Any parabolic run is finishing with heavy correction.It is clear liquidity problems volume is slowing nut price is failing. Overall cryptocurrencies  market is failing.in a case of miners higher price less coins they need to sell to cover his expenses.There are now new mining farms on Siberia but who is managing them.Maybe those farms are only interested in  sell and buying gold.Russia is buying more and more  gold
And price about 8K is not really very low at that time of year

It is quite reasonable to assume certain alt's will be rebounding now that Bitcoin dominance is retreating.