Why was $13,800 unsustainable?

[Herbert2020]

It was unsustainable ($13,800) because several holders exit for a profit

good points about TA, i feel like people are putting too much faith into it, and many of them are even pretty bad at making an analysis too!
in any case about this i have to say this is the only reason for the drops. just like any other big rise, this was met with a small short term bubble which needed a correction. and this correction starts by short term aka day traders selling their coins to get their short term and big profit out to get ready to buy back at the bottom of the dip. the only problem was the follow up market reaction to that simple move! which was filled with panic.

[buwaytress]

Am I the only guy with a longview who's actually quite happy to see Bitcoin just below $10k again? No, I know I'm not, cause you can see all those sneaky orderwalls being filled up, you can see the freelancers like me filling in their invoices and trying to rush work done during this window of dipping prices, you can definitely see Google Trends still growing (sorry, I know, I shouldn't use this!).

Remember, it took a few weeks to pump 40%. It'll happen a bit slower this time around, but it'll happen. I mean, it's climbing back up now anyway 4% just in this last hour.

[gentlemand]

Am I the only guy with a longview who's actually quite happy to see Bitcoin just below $10k again?

I'm not remotely bothered myself and I find it a little strange that people who've been here a thousand times before have been getting uptight. The rise appeared with little effort so it stands to reason it'll peter out in a similarly casual fashion.

Five figures is clearly important to them. The market didn't appear to feel the same.

[cocoadreamboy]

It is not possible for bitcoin to stay in that position because due to growth it always needs some correction in order to increase it to further level. Don't bother on time again the price of bitcoin will surely increase in the market.

You are not using any data, information, or logic to support your view. I use the creation cost to understand where the balance point is for bitcoin. When it is high it will face natural pressure to go back down, and when it is down it will face natural upward pressure.

I have a site where you can go to get this information:

https://www.amsinger.org

My goal is to help people get out of magical thinking and start making real money.

Aaron

[cocoadreamboy]

It can still break the $13800 area.

You have used not logic numbers or information to prove this statement. If we are throwing out empty hyperbole then a monkey can write the play Hamlet. It CAN happen lol

You can find true analysis here:

https://www.amsinger.org

Hope this helps you see the natural mechanics of the market,

Aaron

[cocoadreamboy]

I think as long as sellers do not sell at these prices then buyers do not need to spend that much money neither. We can theoretically speaking can increase the price of bitcoin without spending a single dollar. How? Simply just nobody buys but sellers do not want to sell at these prices so everyone removes their sell orders and then the lowest amount of bitcoin being sold is 20 thousand dollars and people buy there, that way from here to 20 thousand dollars there are no sellers at all and only at 20 thousand dollars there are sellers which would mean bitcoin price all of a sudden becomes 20 thousand dollars. That is just an example and it would never happen but it shows how we can just sustain the price increase by not selling as much as buying a lot as well.

How can you expect no one to sell in a market? The miners specifically are paying money through electricity and depreciation to create bitcoin, and you expect them to take a loss?

This is complete and utter nonsense. I have a feeling you have very little track record buying and selling crypto for profit.

You can find true educational material and logic here:

https://www.amsinger.org

I hope you enjoy,

Aaron

[cocoadreamboy]

The 13K USD price was unsustainable because the whales+HODLers+small traders+lucky noobs started selling their btc to cash out the profits and that selling pressure was stronger than the buying pressure coming from the whales+traders+possible institutional investors(I'm not quite sure about the third group).
There's support for 11K USD,which is great.

This is a day or two old, and it is already proven incorrect. 11k was not supported. You did not mention the miners at all. They are the largest "institution" that is active in crypto. They pay for all the new coins and sell them to recoup their costs and make profit. That is the natural flow of bitcoin.

Why does selling for profit make you mad? I am happy when people make profit.

Check out the creation cost of bitcoin here, see the cash flow and the reality:

https://www.amsinger.org

Aaron

[AjithBtc]

I don't find any logic behind the quoted market price to be unsustainable. When the price is on the uptrend we can experience such a kind of market move at several points. Most of the time it gets close to the round of value, where it is predicted to go forward after some correction. Same is with the $13800, further it is predicted to reach $15000 barrier which lets the price touch $20k in a very short time period.

[cocoadreamboy]

It is because no matter how excellent a person is in their TA, it is still a guess.  No one knows what will exactly happen on the next hours for Bitcoin.  TA had become a norm so somehow the market moves along to what it intended to be making some of the TA correct, but for those whales who do not follow it, can easily bust that TA made by any seasoned analyst.  And besides, why does there are several TA method?  Because each method is not accurate to tell the next movement of the price.  Does this TA predict this recent price crash?  


It was unsustainable ($13,800) because several holders exit for a profit and probably this:

Agreed. That is why I blame Tom Lee. He told everyone in the beginning of this year that bitcoin's fair value is $14k. He is scamming with everyone. $14k is his target to dump hehehehe. He tricked us!

 

Fundamental analysis is not a guess. At certain hash rate levels and electricity rates there is a specific cost to create a coin.

Every TA (which is usually morons with rulers) was saying BTC 18k! 20k! 82.5k! On June 26-now Just absolute nonsense. They are looking for clicks and views, and most of them care nothing for the people that read their garbage.

If you want to know when the risk level for bitcoin will be reduced please check out my site:

https://www.amsinger.org

Aaron

[cocoadreamboy]

I don't find any logic behind the quoted market price to be unsustainable. When the price is on the uptrend we can experience such a kind of market move at several points. Most of the time it gets close to the round of value, where it is predicted to go forward after some correction. Same is with the $13800, further it is predicted to reach $15000 barrier which lets the price touch $20k in a very short time period.

You are ignoring the reality that it costs money to create a bitcoin. It is called Proof of Work (PoW). It is the fundamental reason bitcoins have any value AT ALL.

The miners collectively create 1800 bitcoin/day by spending money computing problems. This money needs to be recouped, so they sell their newly made coins. This is the natural pressure of high bitcoin. The reason it needs to increase 40% or whatever in a day is because sustained growth like that is not possible. Now the bubble prices have to deal with the sustained pressure of 1800 new coins/day, and that will take it down over time NATURALLY.

If you want to learn the basics how bitcoin risk and cash flow work, please check out my site:

https://www.amsinger.org

I made it to help people to better understand and profit from crypto,

Aaron

[exstasie]

Fundamental analysis is not a guess. At certain hash rate levels and electricity rates there is a specific cost to create a coin.

You don't have all the data required to analyze mining supply. Different miners have different margins, access to more/less efficient rigs, differing electricity costs. Some like Bitmain are much better capitalized (to hold mining rewards through price drops) than others. You really have no idea where the pain points are for miners. You can only average things out with incomplete information.

More importantly, mining supply is only a small aspect of supply and demand, as pointed out earlier. Not only are you looking at incomplete information, but your analysis is based on only a small sliver of the actual fundamentals.

Of course your analysis is a guess!

Every TA (which is usually morons with rulers) was saying BTC 18k! 20k! 82.5k! On June 26-now Just absolute nonsense.

That's patently false. You aren't looking very hard.

[cocoadreamboy]

That's patently false. You aren't looking very hard.

Oh thank you so much paid troll. How is 657,000 newly created bitcoin/ year miner?

If I am false in my view of TA's You have not been to trading view, r/btc, r/bitcoin, or the very speculation board we are on during a pump.

You are shameful in the way that you are trying to mislead people.

I am trying to tell people the truth and provide them with information. You are trying to spread disinformation, and badly at that lol

THANK YOU PAID TROLL

If you would like to see true information about bitcoin, bitcoin cash, Ethereum, and litecoin check out my site!

https://www.amsinger.org

Always a pleasure helping people see some real numbers,

Aaron

[exstasie]

That's patently false. You aren't looking very hard.

Oh thank you so much paid troll. How is 657,000 newly created bitcoin/ year miner?

And? What's your other data? Where is your data to analyze demand? Market price is a function of supply and demand, not one small aspect of supply.

You just keep repeating over and over the market can't possibly support Bitcoin's inflation, without any logic or any attempt to take a deep dive into the fundamentals. "$23.4 million of new investment/day? IMPOSSIBLE!" That's the extent of your analysis!

Even the most ignorant of investors understands that not every mined BTC is immediately dumped onto the market. Miners merely need to cover overheads, and large industrial miners are backed by significant seed money. They are well capitalized and planning their business years out, not immediately selling mining rewards as if they were living paycheck to paycheck.

And by the way, the inflation rate will be halved in a year. And in four years after that it will be halved again. You should probably stop using inflation numbers that don't reflect reality. There will only ever be 21 million BTC, and almost 18 million of them have already been distributed. Next year, there will only be 3 million more BTC mined until 2140. 657,000 BTC mined per year? LOL. I pity the fool that pays for your analysis.

If I am false in my view of TA's You have not been to trading view, r/btc, r/bitcoin, or the very speculation board we are on during a pump.

Just like you, there have been countless bears calling the top all the way up. And they have been wrong for months and months now. At $4K, at $6K, at $8K, at $10K......on Twitter, Tradingview, here.

[arpon11]

The miners create 1800 bitcoin/ day, which means, with simple supply and demand, bitcoin will need ~$23.4 million of new investment/day just to buy the new bitcoin that is being created (not to mention holders selling new highs) to maintain that price.

I use LOGIC and NUMBERS to figure out my trading and holding strategies. I share this data with my clients on my site, please give it a look. It could have saved a lot of people money in this fervor.

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis

I will keep updating this topic as the crash continues or if I get interesting comments.

I really just want to help people save money and avoid the pain I felt in Nov 2018 when I was cleaned out for basically no reason.

What doesn't kill you makes you stronger,

Aaron

I visited the sites and I think you have knowledge on how to analyze the market but the way you express your knowledge here did not put all the factors into consideration! How will you said or trying to assume that all the coins that are mine in a day are sold that same day?  I disagree with this and common sense enable us to understand that miners are also holding for better profits. Miners are not dumpers and their influence on the market is limited! Those that cause the last corrections are the whales that were selling and the buying order was very low.

[cocoadreamboy]

Just like you, there have been countless bears calling the top all the way up. And they have been wrong for months and months now. At $4K, at $6K, at $8K, at $10K......on Twitter, Tradingview, here.

Thank you paid troll,

Find sample analysis here:

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis

Aaron

[Wilhelm]

Just like you, there have been countless bears calling the top all the way up. And they have been wrong for months and months now. At $4K, at $6K, at $8K, at $10K......on Twitter, Tradingview, here.

Thank you paid troll,

Find sample analysis here:

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis

Aaron

The weekly sample has some minor issues. "Copyright © *|CURRENT_YEAR|* *|LIST:COMPANY|*, All rights reserved. " 

[cocoadreamboy]

The weekly sample has some minor issues. "Copyright © *|CURRENT_YEAR|* *|LIST:COMPANY|*, All rights reserved. "  

Thanks bro! If that is all you could find, I'm pretty happy.

https://www.amsinger.org

Aaron

[cocoadreamboy]

Just have time to wait for buy order to become high, because as of now corrections is still profounding. We really need to hold and take our potential profit, and I do respect your idea if disagreeing. By virtue of no choice, holding an asset to sustain is very safe which I don't think another bounce to over $13.8 k could likely to initiate this month.

Buying at the right time is the difference between 1BTC and 2BTC. There is no doubt in my mind that 5 years from now bitcoin will be worth significantly more. The question is in 5 years would you rather have 1 bitcoin or 2?

I give people the information they need to get 2 instead of 1,

Aaron

[benjamin07]

Hey OP i'm not going to join your site for the following reasons:

1. You mentioned that you are investor and you also said that HOLDing died in 2018. So you are an investor for very short times if you are not HODLing. That is stretching "investment" too thin.
2. You mentioned that you do not follow emotions. This could be right in perhaps pharmaceutical company shares market, but BTC jumps +-%% based on an API crash on one exchange.

I would also like to second some of the replies already given:
1. The number of BTCs mined has nothing to do with the number of BTCs sold: mining companies cut a fee for maintenance, many go out of pocket instead of liquidating BTC.
2. Over the long term, BTC has never been forgiving of people who sell. People who draw charts and lines are either professional day traders or snake oil sellers.

[cocoadreamboy]

Hey OP i'm not going to join your site for the following reasons:

1. You mentioned that you are investor and you also said that HOLDing died in 2018. So you are an investor for very short times if you are not HODLing. That is stretching "investment" too thin.
2. You mentioned that you do not follow emotions. This could be right in perhaps pharmaceutical company shares market, but BTC jumps +-%% based on an API crash on one exchange.

I would also like to second some of the replies already given:
1. The number of BTCs mined has nothing to do with the number of BTCs sold: mining companies cut a fee for maintenance, many go out of pocket instead of liquidating BTC.
2. Over the long term, BTC has never been forgiving of people who sell. People who draw charts and lines are either professional day traders or snake oil sellers.

1. Holding is inefficient, intelligent people buy low risk and sell high risk.

2. If you trade on emotions, good luck. People believe whatever story they want when it comes to manipulation.

3. So you are arguing that every mining company is pulling a loss and choosing to avoid profit during profitable times? That is poor reasoning and lacking in analysis or understanding.

4. People who sold @12k-20k are still "being forgiven". I agree with you in this: chart line drawers are usually con men especially in bitcoin.

My clients will enjoy buying when you sell low and selling when you buy high. You have no way of knowing what is reasonably priced and what is garbage priced.

Aaron

https://www.amsinger.org