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Author Topic: Calm down.  (Read 1145 times)
Lanatsa
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August 08, 2019, 09:11:37 PM
 #61

That is called the recency bias and for a trader it is one of the worse biases we may have, one perfect example was the bubble of 2017, when the price reached the top and began to go down many traders instead of taking their profits thought the price will continue to climb and they began to buy even more coins, then when it finally became clear we were in a downtrend instead of selling they held because the previous high price was still too fresh in their minds and we know the horrible losses they suffered as a result of that bias

Trading is essentially a form of reality check for us all

We may form some ideas about future price action (mostly delusions even if correct) based on our prior beliefs which essentially have nothing to do with market and its laws. And what adds insult to injury here is that we actually feel being right about our decisions even if they were proven wrong time and again in the past. We just can't first understand and then internalize (i.e. make it an integral part of our belief system) this sad discrepancy because it is so strikingly against everything we have been internally hard-wired for and equipped with by Mother Nature
As I have gained more experience as a trader the more I understand that the biggest challenge is not to create a profitable system but my own psychology, those biases are there for a reason since they help us in other circumstances, for example if I were lost in the wilderness and suddenly a lion appeared then it will make sense to put all my attention to the lion, if I were to wonder about all of those instances in which I did not encounter a lion then it will be over, however the zero sum nature of the markets establish that the majority of the traders must lose and since they use those biases when they are trading then that means the traders that want to be successful need to go against their most basic tendencies and that is hard to do.
Everything that would give out advantage wont really be easily attained.It would take lots of time and experience before you would able to achieve such state.We have our own wills but lots of factors that does affect out mindset and mainly affecting our emotions thru our decisions.

Failing out with our own system doesn't mean that we aren't fit on this field and come to think lots of people do make their own strats to be efficient but still failed up.

R


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August 10, 2019, 12:40:25 PM
 #62

Calm down will be a solution for us to wait for the market to rise again and gladly, right now, we see the bitcoin market is increasing. We already break $10k although right now, the price back to the lower price but I am sure that soon, the price will break more than $10k. We can be ready for the coming, and we can prepare to sell bitcoin at a higher price again. But be careful, we still need to prevent from the down of the price that could happen in anytime.
If we need to prevent the prices from falling then we need to hold them,selling at higher price will let the bitcoin to be down and the recovery needs to happen then it what it will lead to if that process keep repeating.

I am not sure what you are trying to say here ? People will surely sell the bitcoins and altcoins when they go higher and there will always be a correction. If you say that everyone just keep on holding and do not sell, the prices will automatically rise, then you are wrong. This is not how the crypto market works. Whales will always pump and dump the coins to keep getting the benefits.

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August 10, 2019, 06:02:09 PM
Merited by South Park (2)
 #63

That is called the recency bias and for a trader it is one of the worse biases we may have, one perfect example was the bubble of 2017, when the price reached the top and began to go down many traders instead of taking their profits thought the price will continue to climb and they began to buy even more coins, then when it finally became clear we were in a downtrend instead of selling they held because the previous high price was still too fresh in their minds and we know the horrible losses they suffered as a result of that bias

Trading is essentially a form of reality check for us all

We may form some ideas about future price action (mostly delusions even if correct) based on our prior beliefs which essentially have nothing to do with market and its laws. And what adds insult to injury here is that we actually feel being right about our decisions even if they were proven wrong time and again in the past. We just can't first understand and then internalize (i.e. make it an integral part of our belief system) this sad discrepancy because it is so strikingly against everything we have been internally hard-wired for and equipped with by Mother Nature
As I have gained more experience as a trader the more I understand that the biggest challenge is not to create a profitable system but my own psychology, those biases are there for a reason since they help us in other circumstances, for example if I were lost in the wilderness and suddenly a lion appeared then it will make sense to put all my attention to the lion, if I were to wonder about all of those instances in which I did not encounter a lion then it will be over, however the zero sum nature of the markets establish that the majority of the traders must lose and since they use those biases when they are trading then that means the traders that want to be successful need to go against their most basic tendencies and that is hard to do

Yeah, that's what I was trying to convey

And that's basically the reason why most traders, especially wannabe traders, are losing eventually. They sell at lows because their instincts tell them to sell, as well as buy at highs because the same instincts tell them to buy even if they are fully aware that these instincts may be pushing them into making rash decisions and moves. We are built to trust our instincts without unnecessary reflection or hesitation so as not to get caught and eaten by the proverbial lion (a pride of lions). But they don't work in trading. Well, they actually work quite well but against us, simple folks

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August 10, 2019, 07:48:05 PM
 #64

That is called the recency bias and for a trader it is one of the worse biases we may have, one perfect example was the bubble of 2017, when the price reached the top and began to go down many traders instead of taking their profits thought the price will continue to climb and they began to buy even more coins, then when it finally became clear we were in a downtrend instead of selling they held because the previous high price was still too fresh in their minds and we know the horrible losses they suffered as a result of that bias

Trading is essentially a form of reality check for us all

We may form some ideas about future price action (mostly delusions even if correct) based on our prior beliefs which essentially have nothing to do with market and its laws. And what adds insult to injury here is that we actually feel being right about our decisions even if they were proven wrong time and again in the past. We just can't first understand and then internalize (i.e. make it an integral part of our belief system) this sad discrepancy because it is so strikingly against everything we have been internally hard-wired for and equipped with by Mother Nature
As I have gained more experience as a trader the more I understand that the biggest challenge is not to create a profitable system but my own psychology, those biases are there for a reason since they help us in other circumstances, for example if I were lost in the wilderness and suddenly a lion appeared then it will make sense to put all my attention to the lion, if I were to wonder about all of those instances in which I did not encounter a lion then it will be over, however the zero sum nature of the markets establish that the majority of the traders must lose and since they use those biases when they are trading then that means the traders that want to be successful need to go against their most basic tendencies and that is hard to do.
Everything that would give out advantage wont really be easily attained.It would take lots of time and experience before you would able to achieve such state.We have our own wills but lots of factors that does affect out mindset and mainly affecting our emotions thru our decisions.

Failing out with our own system doesn't mean that we aren't fit on this field and come to think lots of people do make their own strats to be efficient but still failed up.

Yes no thing is easy to achieve for any easy thing we can't expect something bigger. There will allot people who will try to discourage you but you only need to know your goal for investing and keep patience until the price reaches your hopes it is expected to see the price of the coins being higher than 10k $.
Just really be persistent and don't give up because if you do hop out mid way then theres no chance for you to improve.

Become calm most of the time is suggested but this will depend on the level of your experience with this very unpredictable market.
Set your goals,it might not be directly goes on your desired way but at least you are hoping for something.

R


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August 10, 2019, 08:15:55 PM
 #65

If we need to prevent the prices from falling then we need to hold them,selling at higher price will let the bitcoin to be down and the recovery needs to happen then it what it will lead to if that process keep repeating.

Nothing can be prevented, this sounds like trying to hold my breath.  BTC is gradually spent by people just normally on everything from pizza to games.   Not spending is not going to happen, which has to involve selling BTC for FIAT as there is cost to those goods which involves companies paying FIAT paying taxes etc.
The only real way to be sure BTC is ascending in price is for a growing population of users, thats the base case scenario and its inevitable the price is going to get ahead of the curve and be anticipating far more usage then is actually occuring.

People always talk about holding, I'm bullish on using and circulating the Bitcoin.  If it was all hold not use, we dont have a proper currency right ?

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August 12, 2019, 01:35:38 PM
 #66

People will surely sell the bitcoins and altcoins when they go higher and there will always be a correction. If you say that everyone just keep on holding and do not sell, the prices will automatically rise, then you are wrong. This is not how the crypto market works. Whales will always pump and dump the coins to keep getting the benefits.
Demand is the real factor to the rise in value of bitcoin, and you are right that its increase is not solely dependent on the holders but on users, even if we don’t have people holding on their coin in the portfolio, provided the demand of it is high and constant, the value of bitcoin will keep increasing.

If we say it is tied to holders, then how long would people continue to leave their money in bitcoin, at one point, people will find and see need to always remove their money in it. Although those people who are doing shorts too always contribute to the reason why the prices do crash because some of them do withdraw large amount of money from the market at once when there is no influx of demand, if there was influx of demands, as they remove, them it will be replaced back.
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August 15, 2019, 12:58:52 PM
 #67

You get the value fluctuated every minute. But this has been happening for long and since inception and despite this all, we have been seeing great turn around and returns from crypto so it is a great thing to have the fluctuation but to the best thing what you can do is to invested when there is a down trend and when the market value of the coin is down.
Dips are always blessing in disguise to me, and anytime there is a dip, instead of joining them to panic sell, it is better that we just see it as blessing and then invest in the dip, whenever the value of the coin is down and then we buy at that moment, it would be impossible for us not to make profit from it even if it is going to be in a shirt term.

I think the moment we invest in a reliable coin like bitcoin, we need to learn to just calm down and continue to study the market every thoroughly for us to be able to make a decision that will give us a very great turn around on those investment coins. As we see some people complain and panic sell anytime that bitcoin goes down, some people are just on system every minutes looking to buy low and sell high.

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August 17, 2019, 08:15:20 AM
 #68

I think the breaking point is how high it goes but more important part is how fast it goes there.

For example, if the price hits 13k and stays there even for a day than of course there will be a correction, however if price moves to 13k in 24 hours (for example lets say tomorrow) and than it goes to 15k next day than 17k the day after that, suddenly we are in a such bull run that nobody wants to sell and everyone wants to wait and see how high it goes and suddenly cashing out becomes not so important or loved.

Hence, I think how high it goes is of course important but how fast it goes there plays a bigger role in peoples mindset about when to buy or when to sell, we should try to wait around and gain more and more usdt first and when we have enough we should all attack at the same time.

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August 17, 2019, 08:57:20 AM
 #69

I think the breaking point is how high it goes but more important part is how fast it goes there.

For example, if the price hits 13k and stays there even for a day than of course there will be a correction, however if price moves to 13k in 24 hours (for example lets say tomorrow) and than it goes to 15k next day than 17k the day after that, suddenly we are in a such bull run that nobody wants to sell and everyone wants to wait and see how high it goes and suddenly cashing out becomes not so important or loved.

Hence, I think how high it goes is of course important but how fast it goes there plays a bigger role in peoples mindset about when to buy or when to sell, we should try to wait around and gain more and more usdt first and when we have enough we should all attack at the same time.

They call this a Pump n dump...

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August 17, 2019, 06:43:58 PM
 #70

^^ It could be called pump but definitely not dump because there is no going down Grin. The method is basically pump and dumps just the pump part but its so much big and so much money involved that it doesn't considered as a pump but a bull run.

All of the bull runs we had so far in crypto has always been people who are getting into a coin all together, that could be bitcoin that could be altcoins but when there is a hype about the price of a coin that is considered to be going up there is a huge rush and everyone buys it and that creates a big pump looking movement. That is why pumps and bull runs are so different you have to literally do a fake volume and fake purchases for it to be considered a pump, if its legit a hope that it will go up than its called a bull run.

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August 17, 2019, 10:32:24 PM
 #71

Why do you want it to go higher if you are not considering dumping at a higher price  ;-)

But yes you want to turn the trend and I understand that. You want long term gains. Get the FOMO to drive up the price.

You can also all dump together and then buy back double at the bottom.... That is probably what is happening now.

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August 18, 2019, 07:20:28 AM
 #72

Things will always be change and the current trend is giving in favor to us (buyers). A lot of people waiting for the price to drop by and so we can buy more potential coins. It might trigger FOMO to some holders and let their hands sell the coins, then will be catching on it.

Calm down? It could be hard for weak hands and doubtful individuals, but for us who know crypto will patiently waiting for another market strike.
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August 18, 2019, 09:27:05 AM
 #73

I think the breaking point is how high it goes but more important part is how fast it goes there.

For example, if the price hits 13k and stays there even for a day than of course there will be a correction, however if price moves to 13k in 24 hours (for example lets say tomorrow) and than it goes to 15k next day than 17k the day after that, suddenly we are in a such bull run that nobody wants to sell and everyone wants to wait and see how high it goes and suddenly cashing out becomes not so important or loved.

Hence, I think how high it goes is of course important but how fast it goes there plays a bigger role in peoples mindset about when to buy or when to sell, we should try to wait around and gain more and more usdt first and when we have enough we should all attack at the same time.

They call this a Pump n dump...
You sound like those two words are crime or offences, this two are naturally, it just depends on how it is being used, like the scenario that he gave, that can of movement is obvious that it is an artificial pump, although fomo could actually cause it to have that sudden increase, the first increase is usually the artificial pump, but when you start seeing those second increase, then you should know that fomo has already set it which is usually organic pump, because everyone will want to start buying, but the disadvantage of such type of movement is that it creates very sharp decline at a little panic.

Look at how the price has been moving now slowly and steadily, it has fallen severally but yet it still did not create panic because people were already used to the movement, which is why I personally like this movement more than the other fast and sharp increase.
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August 19, 2019, 04:08:39 AM
 #74


Calm down? It could be hard for weak hands and doubtful individuals, but for us who know crypto will patiently waiting for another market strike.


Yes it could also be hard for crypto enthusiasts who are financially bankrupt, even though that they believe and know that price will boom, but won't have a choice than to sell to survive from hunger.

That will happen too with traders who need money for their daily life because will cut loss their coin no matter how much the price in the market. Maybe some of us can be calm down, but the other traders cannot do that because many of them still cannot hold their emotion to see the price is jump deeper to the lowest price.

But yes, maybe calm down will help us to search the other way to survive in the unstable market like today. We need to learn about calm down for more so we can to see the chance to make a profit again.

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August 20, 2019, 11:26:02 AM
 #75

we are very very calm Smiley you can't be too agitated as a trader for a long time
this would lead to bad consequences , besides I see no reason to be anxious - its business as usual
historical trends as well as any other tech analysis are working until they do not , just do not succumb to FOMO and you are going to be fine
we are lucky to be at this price range now , remember the 3200$ lows this year when everything was looking very grim?
there is no reason to believe it wouldn't happen again , several bad news, hacks and another government regulations
and we see panic sales and fear  and crashing markets
so indeed , calm down and do not let your emotions deprive you of the profit

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August 21, 2019, 06:45:56 PM
 #76

we are very very calm Smiley you can't be too agitated as a trader for a long time
this would lead to bad consequences , besides I see no reason to be anxious - its business as usual
historical trends as well as any other tech analysis are working until they do not , just do not succumb to FOMO and you are going to be fine
we are lucky to be at this price range now , remember the 3200$ lows this year when everything was looking very grim?
there is no reason to believe it wouldn't happen again , several bad news, hacks and another government regulations
and we see panic sales and fear  and crashing markets
so indeed , calm down and do not let your emotions deprive you of the profit
Have you ever watched a suspense movie before? And you know that feeling you have till the movie is over, that is the same suspense that long term investment usually give investors, the feeling of seeing a price grow high now and you don’t know whether to pull out or not is not that easy and we must really give a thumbs up for we that are really rocking or long term investment, we will all smile at the end.

Those who are doing shorts in the market now would rally regret their actions one day because the point the exit prematurely is when the price will start mooning and may be quite difficult for them to buy back then as they will be confused about which direction the market will go which technical analysis would not even be able to help them out at that point.
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