2017 Crash DejaVu?

[btc_angela]

I also remain bullish although we've seen some dip in the last 24 hours and moving down from as high as $13,800 last month. And I wouldn't say it's Deja Vu, I'm sure everyone knows that the market is very unpredictable. There might be some negatives news that really change the sentiments, but being bullish, it won't last that long. Everyone needs just to settle down and not panic.

[pooya87]

first of all this "crash" you are talking about wasn't in 2017, it was in 2018. secondly nothing about it is similar. in 2017 we were in a big bubble that was the product of 2000% rise over the course of a year that was the follow up of all the rises that came before in 2016 and 2015 so that "bubble" was the final result of a 3 year bull run of 13233% rise. the follow up was the bubble burst, correction and panic that created a year long bear market reducing the price up to 85%.

right now, in comparison, we are in the recovery stage of that year long drop getting back part of the huge value that was lost mot of it for no reason. there is nothing similar here. if you zoom back and look at how previous peak that you think is similar to this happened you can see that it is a constant rise with your current time settings whereas this peak is a reversal that makes the chart look like a V.

here is what you think is similar (taken from this topic):


if you want to see something really similar then look at the same situations that we had in the past:
this is when we were reversing from the bottom of last HUGE dip after the previous major bubble in 2015. even the size of the rise (~4x) is similar!

and if the price are resisting a collapse should probably be because many people are selling their altcoins to buy bitcoin.

people don't sell their altcoins to fiat then buy bitcoin with fiat to cause a price rise. people simply dump their altcoins for bitcoin directly and that never has any effect on bitcoin price in fiat terms. so the reverse meaning buying altcoins with bitcoin can not affect bitcoin price either.
it is not even the same market! it is BTC/ALT instead of being BTC/USD

[exstasie]

people simply dump their altcoins for bitcoin directly and that never has any effect on bitcoin price in fiat terms. so the reverse meaning buying altcoins with bitcoin can not affect bitcoin price either.
it is not even the same market! it is BTC/ALT instead of being BTC/USD

Slippage: Since ALT/USD markets are so thin (and lots of coins don't even have fiat markets) it's often better to sell to ALT/BTC then BTC/USD.

Arbitrage: When the ALT/USD pairs get dumped, it can create arbitrage gaps between ALT/USD and [ALT/BTC-->BTC/USD]. Arbitrage bots use USD to buy the ALT, dump for BTC, then they dump the BTC for USD.

Both of these activities directly affect the BTC/USD market. So there is an effect.

[Astargath]

Doesn't look like it to me at all.

I don't think that the bull market has even entered the major stages of bullishness, fear of missing out, and euphoria yet. Prices have rose a crap ton over the last 3-4 months, yes, but nowhere to the scale of 2017, or what I'd expect to be the peak of the market.

If you look at this chart, I think that the more likely scenario is that we're currently in the first bear trap.



Markets will consolidate at a lower price before testing the $10k once again. I remain bullish for the long run despite people's concerns about Libra, because ultimately that has nothing to do with bitcoin's fundamentals.

People have been using that graph since 2017 in any way it fits them. The first line until the "bear trap" looks nothing like what we had these months, the uptrend was far more pronounced. That graph also doesnt mention any kind of % and its really useless when it comes to predicting price movements.

[pooya87]

people simply dump their altcoins for bitcoin directly and that never has any effect on bitcoin price in fiat terms. so the reverse meaning buying altcoins with bitcoin can not affect bitcoin price either.
it is not even the same market! it is BTC/ALT instead of being BTC/USD

Slippage: Since ALT/USD markets are so thin (and lots of coins don't even have fiat markets) it's often better to sell to ALT/BTC then BTC/USD.

Arbitrage: When the ALT/USD pairs get dumped, it can create arbitrage gaps between ALT/USD and [ALT/BTC-->BTC/USD]. Arbitrage bots use USD to buy the ALT, dump for BTC, then they dump the BTC for USD.

Both of these activities directly affect the BTC/USD market. So there is an effect.

the first one is correct. and i have even mentioned it on many occasions as the reason for a bunch of price drops that we had in the past. but that is not what @Slowdeath was saying. he was saying people are selling altcoins and buying bitcoin which is why bitcoin price is staying up and not dropping. what you are explaining is exit of money from altcoins to fiat through bitcoin which causes bitcoin price drop.

the second one is valid but i don't think the volume is that high to affect bitcoin price considering ATL/USD is not that popular and doesn't have high enough volumes on its own and arbitrage volume is not that high either. there is also the argument about whether ALT/USD drops first or ALT/BTC drops first, and again considering most trades are done in ALT/BTC i'd assume it would be the first to dump and the ALT/USD to follow in which case it can cause bitcoin price rise in it does anything!

[marcbitcoins]

Most of the crypto holders are now afraid and most probably some of them are might be in panic selling their assest now specially those who experienced the great Bitcoin crash on Dec 2017 in which many crypto enthusiast did suffered and lost their investments. Hopefully that this is not Dejavu as Bitcoin market must need to be bullish again first before become bearish once again.

[adaseb]

In 2017 we had 30-40% pullbacks that were around 4-5 weeks or so. And it eventually engulfed those drops and hit a new ATH shortly after.

The reason why the pullbacks are so severe is mostly due to over-leverged longs. Basically a few days ago when we were at $13000 there was over $1.1 billion in open interest and today its only $700, so its a crazy amount of longs which were liquidated that lead to this severe drop which happened so quickly.

It looks like the $9200 area held, so see if we can test the $10000 area and close above it.

[arpon11]

I am a bull trader and I have been predicting on bullish trend so far and also like to make comments on bullish trend than the bearish market but this your candlestick formation actually bring out the fat. Bitcoin conveniently crosses 50 MA yesterday on a daily chart comfortably and that is a sign that the bull is losing momentum and buyers are not ready to buy at the current pricing. If bitcoin break below $9000? Then we should be ready to stay below $8000 from now till the end of August as the trend reversal may happen by October to December as it has happened every bull years.

[Pursuer]

your "deja vu" is off by 2 years and about $9000.
what this current price and charts look like is 2015 not 2017. and the trend looks exactly like what we had at that time when price first started recovering from the absolute bottom at $150 and has been rising for a couple of months before it had a hiccup like what we are witnessing these days. a hiccup that is going to lull some of the bears to get out of their cave and wake up just to lose money before the reversal continues on its way upwards.

[exstasie]

In 2017 we had 30-40% pullbacks that were around 4-5 weeks or so. And it eventually engulfed those drops and hit a new ATH shortly after.

Bingo. Shaking my head at all these people immediately assuming we've entered a long term bear market. Just look at the numbers. This drop is 100% typical compared to the 2016/2017 bull market.

The reason why the pullbacks are so severe is mostly due to over-leverged longs.

It's also because of the emotion/psychology tied to this insane volatility. The BTC market experienced this kind of volatility (larger really) before the days of Bitmex. When investors are spot holding from the $13,000s and price is crashing into $10K and beyond, there's sure to be spot holders panicking as well.

[LeGaulois]

I was still happy with the $9,500 (if we look at where we come from...) We're maybe 'safe' from a 2017-2018 crash, It didn't look like a crash after all. The value has been able to recover $1k the last 24h, would be nice if it can do it 2 days again...  Ups and Downs with $1,000 during the same days need to become a habit again.

[Harlot]

And just like that in just one day Bitcoin rise from 9,000$ to 10,600$. It only shows that the bulls won't go down without a fight. I have observed the volume from the short time frame charts and it's still bullish. However will still not in the clear yet, Bitcoin needs to prove that it can still go up back above 11,000$ to show that we haven't trigger the bear market prematurely. It may have stop the sell offs happening but we still need BTC to continue this up trend just to be sure we are out of it.

[dunfida]

I was still happy with the $9,500 (if we look at where we come from...) We're maybe 'safe' from a 2017-2018 crash, It didn't look like a crash after all. The value has been able to recover $1k the last 24h, would be nice if it can do it 2 days again...  Ups and Downs with $1,000 during the same days need to become a habit again.

People are worrying too much instead on utilizing those price movements.Making some % profits on a short or days time isnt bad if you do
able to get in on the right time.Nothing surprising if we hit 4 digits then after an hour we recovered with 5 digits.I dont know why people keep
speculating on crashes when they do saw a drop? 

[BitHodler]

And just like that in just one day Bitcoin rise from 9,000$ to 10,600$. It only shows that the bulls won't go down without a fight.

I think the bulls actually like these selloffs because it makes a further increase easier. It also helps making people more bearish in general and therefore open shorts because they expect the price to tank. After that it's squeeze time.

It's not healthy when the price goes up in a parabolic manner, regardless of how strong the bulls are-- all it takes is the momentum to shift for the bears to start unloading the coins they firmly held on the way up.

The more we see large holders unload right now, the less selling bulls have to eat through on the way up to a new yearly high. The bears selling will eventually buy back at higher levels to not lose out once again, which means more buying pressure.

[timerland]

-snip-

People have been using that graph since 2017 in any way it fits them. The first line until the "bear trap" looks nothing like what we had these months, the uptrend was far more pronounced. That graph also doesnt mention any kind of % and its really useless when it comes to predicting price movements.

This is contradictory.

You are saying that there are no percentages in terms of how far the price swings (duh, if we could match up perfectly the market with this graph, why would people even attempt to conduct TA and analyze fundamentals? They could just refer to this graph all the time), yet you're saying that the price movements that we've seen are nowhere near what the graph suggests?

You mention that the uptrend was "far more pronounced". I disagree with this as well, since the markets merely recovered above $10k. Coupled with the fact that the halving, which usually sends the real bullish signal towards the market is still quite some time away, I think it is safe to say that we're still in the smart money/institutional interest phase.

[FanEagle]

[im g]https://i.gyazo.com/425a7250bae759fd8a7f72f73edc0cda.png[/img]

Is it me or are the 2 last monthly candlesticks looking eerily similar? Similar uptrends before as well. Could we experience a huge crash like in 2017 again? At least the RSI is not similar but still

Are you serious? Bitcoin was around 900 dollars that same year, then it went as high as 1-3 thousand dollar range during summer and early september, it went as high as 20 thousand dollars peak during december. You think bitcoin going from 3.4k-4.2k range to 10k is "similar to 2017 crash"? How can someone be that stupid? I mean I am sorry but if you think bitcoin going over x20 in couple months is quite similar to bitcoin going x2-3 in couple months then you are going to lose a lot of money in bitcoin world and you should try to stop yourself from investing into it.

Spend your time on something else, you are wasting it on bitcoin, it is obvious you will never understand trading so why not spend it on something that would be useful for you, I would suggest learning how to play a musical instrument, that seems to relax people.

[Febo]

Is it me or are the 2 last monthly candlesticks looking eerily similar? Similar uptrends before as well. Could we experience a huge crash like in 2017 again? At least the RSI is not similar but still

There was no crash in 2017 and last 2 months are not similar to me as end of 2017. November 2017 was crazy and hype around bitcoin was same as will be next year when Bitcoin will be over $100k.

[hatshepsut93]

The last ATH and the crash that followed had many other, non-chart signs - the fees were high due to a huge network activity, as people were moving their coins in and out of exchanges, Bitcoin reached ATH on Google trends, the media all over the world were talking about Bitcoin, even on national television. There's nothing like that right now, so it's not the top of another bubble yet. Maybe it is a fake rally (very low chance), but most likely the crash from $14,000 is just a correction on a road to much higher prices.

[Stedsm]

I don't believe this as I'd repeat the same thing I told in earlier times - the volume during the 2017-18 was so low that the manipulation was a game to market-SHakers but after it got injected the leverage thing, I see the volume that's needed to shake the markets now is a lot more (almost 3x) from what it used to be. Asserting to the fact that you're saying, I think chances are very less of BTC coming back to lower levels as I believe it has already made its low for this year and doesn't need to go any further down as the pattern did justice to those who were waiting for another opportunity to buy back. The dissent about the price going up or not is actually becoming questionable with each day being cut off and this won't come to an end, so let's see what the time has to tell!

[exstasie]

The last ATH and the crash that followed had many other, non-chart signs - the fees were high due to a huge network activity, as people were moving their coins in and out of exchanges, Bitcoin reached ATH on Google trends, the media all over the world were talking about Bitcoin, even on national television. There's nothing like that right now, so it's not the top of another bubble yet.

With most of those metrics, it looks like the beginning of a bubble now. Google Trends looks an awful lot like the May-October 2017 period before it went parabolic. Fees have been trending upwards since the beginning of the year too. I guess we got Trump tweeting about Bitcoin, but yeah, certainly not the everyday hype coverage of late 2017.