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Author Topic: Martingale revisited  (Read 1248 times)
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October 08, 2019, 04:26:57 PM
 #101

Does your base bet is on minimal?

Yep, I start with the minimal possible amount at 0.00000001 doges

To make things clear right at the start, I know that martingale is a losing strategy in the long term as there is no way to beat the house and its edge if only by chance alone (or by exploiting a bug in the system). And since martingale effectively removes the chance part from the equation, it is set to fail in the end
Martingale doesn't remove chance from the equation, it only removes  mischance. Because if you win you don't need to use it. You only double your bet when you lose.

Well, that depends on how you are going to end up

If you leave with your balance multiplied, it could be construed this way, i.e. you always end up winning at the end of every series of bets, every losing streak. That point I agree with. However, and this is what the part of my post you quoted refers to, if you end up broken, with no coins left, as this is the inevitable outcome of any martingale setup provided you run it for long enough (unless you are following the strategy described in the OP, of course), that mischance will eventually catch up with you, totally and irreconcilably
"long enough" means nothing in the real world. Some people win the lottery while they had one chance on 10 millions. So people can win a very long series while using a martingale.

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Tytanowy Janusz
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October 09, 2019, 10:01:07 AM
 #102

Guys if you found out any system that might actually work go here and present it to me (damn i need to update OP. There was much more than 3 simulations). I'll code simulation for you and check what will be the output for 10 000 - 100 000 gamblers plying this system in given criteria (f.e. play until double or bust). For now on cryptovigi invented system that was actually better than martingale but sill worse than single bet.

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October 09, 2019, 12:10:14 PM
 #103

Guys if you found out any system that might actually work go here and present it to me (damn i need to update OP. There was much more than 3 simulations). I'll code simulation for you and check what will be the output for 10 000 - 100 000 gamblers plying this system in given criteria (f.e. play until double or bust). For now on cryptovigi invented system that was actually better than martingale but sill worse than single bet.

Well okay, I have read  three Martingale systems that you shared and it is all good enough for those who have big capital. For me Martingale v1 system is quite good even though it is an old system but it is good enough for barely capital. So far I also use Martingale system when I lose and mostly I make a single bet.

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October 09, 2019, 12:43:23 PM
 #104

^^  THis is still a loss in my take because you are spending so much time invested in trying to win a simple gamble on the site.   Are you even having fun, its not a good system on any point of view as if done properly you are not even involved as a player in deciding when to bet but are being forced to follow that strategy

But really, what makes you think I'm so heavily invested in this?

After all, the bets are automatic and after a few improvements that have been implemented recently on the site, there are no more memory issues or cpu cycles wasted, so it just runs somewhere in the background. And yes, I'm having fun since otherwise I wouldn't even bother to look how things are going on down there - something like "you're all going to die down here" in a little girl's voice (if you know what I mean)

Eventually after a long time of the tiny bets you might be able to walk away with a tiny profit rather then a loss, it could be worse but there was never any potential to win only to lose your own time on a pointless pursuit using a bad system

Variance is the new word to learn this time around
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October 09, 2019, 01:08:37 PM
 #105

Well okay, I have read  three Martingale systems that you shared and it is all good enough for those who have big capital. For me Martingale v1 system is quite good even though it is an old system but it is good enough for barely capital. So far I also use Martingale system when I lose and mostly I make a single bet.

In fact my simulation shows that the more money you have the lower odds you have to double (or win profit equal to % of portfolio). The lowest limit v1 simulation was started was equal to 100. It is similar to enter casino with 100$ placing first bet equal to 1$. Or 10$ with initial bet equal 0.10 $. That's big capital?

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October 09, 2019, 01:47:09 PM
 #106

No. The chance of losing all goes down but the chance still remains. Aka you'll lose eventually.
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October 09, 2019, 02:03:45 PM
 #107

"long enough" means nothing in the real world. Some people win the lottery while they had one chance on 10 millions. So people can win a very long series while using a martingale

Could not agree more!

That's the essence of this whole thread. As long as you don't bust is already long enough to my understanding. And we can help ourselves last longer by choosing the right settings for our martingale setup while taking advantage of the bouts of variance through both accumulating profits and making our losing streaks longer and longer until we become virtually invulnerable and indestructible. That's technically the reason why so many casinos out there don't allow betting with lowest possible denominations or intentionally limit betting speeds (read, enjoy the ride while it lasts)

Well okay, I have read  three Martingale systems that you shared and it is all good enough for those who have big capital. For me Martingale v1 system is quite good even though it is an old system but it is good enough for barely capital. So far I also use Martingale system when I lose and mostly I make a single bet.

In fact my simulation shows that the more money you have the lower odds you have to double (or win profit equal to % of portfolio). The lowest limit v1 simulation was started was equal to 100. It is similar to enter casino with 100$ placing first bet equal to 1$. Or 10$ with initial bet equal 0.10 $. That's big capital?

You can just look at my stats here and guess whether it works for me or not. Anyway, here come my recent results:



I've encountered a few good outliers that helped me increase my balance during the last couple of days (but not too good to destroy me yet)

No. The chance of losing all goes down but the chance still remains. Aka you'll lose eventually

It's been discussed in the thread
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October 09, 2019, 03:19:12 PM
Last edit: October 09, 2019, 03:49:32 PM by Tytanowy Janusz
 #108

You can just look at my stats here and guess whether it works for me or not. Anyway, here come my recent results:
My simulation shows what will be the output for 10 000 - 100 000 gamblers. Not 1 lucky gambler. You see the difference? Out of 100 000 gamblers there is always one lucky bastard who made portfolio x5 and was not busted for 30 years (1 bet per minute, 8h daily, 365 days annually). And there are also 70 000 gamblers who didn't even double their portfolio before hitting killing strike. The output is what will average gambler get without luck factor. Is your stats photo giving the same data or is just confusing newbies to believe in gambling systems that does not exist?

BTW Is your 1200 doge profit (2$) really something to proud of?

2$ profit. And what was your bankrolll that you were risking doing martingale to earn this? 10$? 50$? It means that you already earned 4-20% of your porfolio. Try to get 100% of your porfolio and then you might be in 30% gamblers who managed to do it in my simulation. In fact thats a huge difference if there is 1 gambler or 10 000 of them.

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October 09, 2019, 03:46:02 PM
 #109

You can just look at my stats here and guess whether it works for me or not. Anyway, here come my recent results:
My simulation shows what will be the output for 10 000 - 100 000 gamblers. Not 1 lucky gambler. You see the difference? Out of 100 000 gamblers there is always one lucky bastard who made portfolio x5 and was not busted for 30 years (1 bet per minute, 8h daily, 365 days annually)

Presently, I'm rolling at wolf.bet

And their betting speed is likely the highest out there for the time being (like 4-5 bets per second). That's basically why I'm so interested in running this setup - to feel it with my own skin in the game. Well, with at least some part thereof (however small that part might be)

You see, 10 000 gamblers is not particularly different from just a single one if the number of their bets stays essentially the same. As you can also see, I have made over 12 million bets by now, and if you ask me, it is not something you can easily call a small sample size, by any means

BTW Is your 1200 doge profit (2$) really something to proud of?

Maybe, that the system has been working so far? Remember, Rome wasn't built in a day (or two), while the proof of the pudding is in the eating (I'm all practical)

2$ profit. And what was your bankrolll that you were risking doing martingale to earn this 2$? 10$? 50$? It means that you already earned 4-20% of your porfolio. Try to get 100% of your porfolio and then you might be in 30% gamblers who managet to do it in my simulation. In fact that a huge difference is there is 1 gambler or 10 000 of them

I started with free coins, basically with nothing to dance on (first records are telling everything). You guess how much I made, percentage-wise
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October 09, 2019, 04:46:35 PM
Last edit: October 09, 2019, 05:21:54 PM by Tytanowy Janusz
 #110

I started with free coins, basically with nothing to dance on (first records are telling everything). You guess how much I made, percentage-wise

That does not matter it they were free or not. Link only shows that after 5 M bets you had half the profit from 10 M bets.

Just post here how much doge you have now (current balance + withdrawals) and i will know everything - starting balance, profit % and i can even code for you how much lucky you are.

F.e.
Code:
Limit:
10
target:
1210
How many tests
10000000
Casino lost with 26517 gamblers out of 10000000

That's with regular martingale (black/red on roulette). 1200 doge profit out of 10 from free faucets. Possible? Yes but only 26 500 gamblers out of 10 000 000 manage to do it (0.27%). Did you get better profit (~12 000%)? I can code that too to show you what is the probability of you still being alive if you are using regular martingale.

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October 09, 2019, 04:50:55 PM
 #111


Just post here how much doge you have now (current balance + withdrawals) and i will know everything - starting balance, profit % and i can even code for you how much lucky you are.


That's not correct 100%. Look at my below stat and use your method to predict how lucky I am, and when will I got bursted.



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October 10, 2019, 07:04:08 AM
 #112

Link only shows that after 5 M bets you had half the profit from 10 M bets

Yes, that seems to be correct

It also shows that I started small and at some point in time earned only 10 doges. My setup didn't change much since then apart from making my terminating strings longer as well as letting variance more leeway without changing my exposure (all of that has been explained in the thread). But quite honestly, I don't see what you are getting at here and what you are trying to get across

Just post here how much doge you have now (current balance + withdrawals) and i will know everything - starting balance, profit % and i can even code for you how much lucky you are

I may be lucky in earning so much, but I'm not particularly lucky at gambling that long for the simple reason that no luck is involved in that. The primary goal of my system is to let me last as long as possible. In other words, there is little luck involved in me playing all this time without busting. Regardless, you can collect like 42 doges within a period of 7 days (the so-called 7-day streak). I missed a couple days, so it should be relatively easy to calculate profit margins

Other than that, you seem to be missing what I'm specifically looking for with my setup
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October 10, 2019, 08:17:56 AM
 #113

Other than that, you seem to be missing what I'm specifically looking for with my setup

I think you are missing what is luck factor in your case. You are constantly avoiding giving me any data for simulation that would proof that it does not work (gives worse odds than single bet system). So i'll try to explain it on example:

This is not example of luck with regular martingale:
Having 4 M losing bets and 6 M winning bets out of 10 M bets (with 50:50 probability)

This is example of luck with regular martingale:
Min bet on wolfbet is 0.00000001 DOGE. If you had 10 doge from free faucet you can survive up to 29(or 28) losing bets in a raw and still go into profit after next bet. If I'm not wrong Its 1: 500 M (or 250 M). It means that killing strike has probability of 1:250 M. Extreme unlucky gambler will hit killing strike after first bet. Extreme lucky gambler will not hit killing strike after trillion bets. Average gambler will hit killing strike after 250 M bets.


Saying that you are free from luck factor only because you have survived 12M bets is wrong.

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October 10, 2019, 08:02:22 PM
 #114

Min bet on wolfbet is 0.00000001 DOGE. If you had 10 doge from free faucet you can survive up to 29 losing bets in a raw and still go into profit after next bet. If I'm not wrong Its 1: 500 M (or 250 M). It means that killing strike has probability of 1:250 M. Extreme unlucky gambler will hit killing strike after first bet

I'm still very far from any of these (1T, 1B or just 250M bets)

Regardless, as long as you don't bust, the killing streak doesn't get closer either (the direct inference from bets being independent of each other). It doesn't mean that you can't or won't bust, it means that when you do, it shall be an extreme outlier. But before you see such an outlier coming your way and wiping your balance away, you will see quite a few smaller ones through which you can postpone that final one further into the future by lengthening the fateful streak. Anyway, you can always try it out for yourself and see if it works for you

This is not example of luck with regular martingale:
Having 4 M losing bets and 6 M winning bets out of 10 M bets (with 50:50 probability)

Just in case, I never meant it to be a regular martingale setup

Saying that you are free from luck factor only because you have survived 12M bets is wrong

I'm not lucky to survive, I'm not unlucky to bust. That seems to be the point of discord between us
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October 16, 2019, 10:47:11 AM
 #115

That's not correct 100%. Look at my below stat and use your method to predict how lucky I am, and when will I got bursted.

I will never tell you when will you get busted. I can tell you where will average gambler get busted. Screenshots gives me 0 informations.

I need your bankroll and your system (f.e. starting with xxx and trippling after loss)


Just in case, I never meant it to be a regular martingale setup

You are constantly avoiding giving me any data for simulation that would proof that it does not work (gives worse odds than single bet system). So i'll try to explain it on example

Maybe this will convince you:
1. Do you seriously think there is a system that beats Casino and Casino does not know about that?
2. Do you seriously think that you are smarter than thousands of mathematicians who tried to solve this problem using complicated mathematical formulas and failed?

Just present your system.
1- bankroll
2- initial bet
3- system (f.e. starting with xxx and trippling after loss or whatever you did in auto-bet tab)

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October 16, 2019, 11:06:10 AM
 #116

Maybe this will convince you:
1. Do you seriously think there is a system that beats Casino and Casino does not know about that?
2. Do you seriously think that you are smarter than thousands of mathematicians who tried to solve this problem using complicated mathematical formulas and failed?

But really, I don't argue with that

Well, at least with your first point. In fact, I've rewritten about that myself a few times already (and probably even in this thread as well). Casinos are perfectly well aware of this approach, and that's exactly the reason why they do two things. First, they limit the betting speed. And as the example of wolf.bet clearly shows, this is an artificial limitation because at wolf.bet you can easily make like 4-5 bets a second. Second, in most casinos with coins like Dogecoin you are not allowed to start with the lowest possible denomination. You guess why

Regarding your second point, this is an obvious case of appeal to authority (otherwise known as an argument from authority). And do you know that it is listed under the fallacy category? In simple terms, I'm not smarter that thousands of mathematicians but I'm not sure that they actually think the way you think they do. Honestly, it is all pretty coherently explained in the OP (read, I don't argue with either statisticians or mathematicians). To recapitulate, I'm not lucky to survive, I'm not unlucky to bust (and yes, I'm still rolling)
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October 19, 2019, 12:34:10 PM
Last edit: October 19, 2019, 12:46:42 PM by deisik
 #117

Well, it's been ten days since my recent report here. And here're the fresh stats:



As everyone can confirm, I've been able to make almost 40% on my betting capital within the last 10 day period. Other than free doges (around 40 a week aka 7-Day Streak) and winnings reinvested, nothing has been added to my balance. In simple words, it is all pure profit generated exclusively through gambling (more specifically, by using martingale wisely and safely). You may like it or you may not like it (which I understand, just in case), but the stats are not lying, no matter the odds
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October 25, 2019, 09:38:01 AM
 #118

Well, it's been ten days since my recent report here. And here're the fresh stats:



As everyone can confirm, I've been able to make almost 40% on my betting capital within the last 10 day period. Other than free doges (around 40 a week aka 7-Day Streak) and winnings reinvested, nothing has been added to my balance. In simple words, it is all pure profit generated exclusively through gambling (more specifically, by using martingale wisely and safely). You may like it or you may not like it (which I understand, just in case), but the stats are not lying, no matter the odds

That looks nice. How much is the profit per hour in $ ?

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October 25, 2019, 11:59:54 AM
 #119

As everyone can confirm, I've been able to make almost 40% on my betting capital within the last 10 day period. Other than free doges (around 40 a week aka 7-Day Streak) and winnings reinvested, nothing has been added to my balance. In simple words, it is all pure profit generated exclusively through gambling (more specifically, by using martingale wisely and safely). You may like it or you may not like it (which I understand, just in case), but the stats are not lying, no matter the odds

That looks nice. How much is the profit per hour in $?

I don't really know

You could calculate the rate yourself if you want to, but keep in mind that it will be an utterly useless metric as most of my "profit" comes through variance (and that's the whole idea behind the approach described in this topic). In short, you earn through a few long losing streaks which are long enough to bring in decent profits (percentage-wise) but not long enough to bust you. Obviously, there can be whole days when you just drag along earning dust, and then, all of a sudden, here we are!
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October 25, 2019, 01:17:18 PM
 #120

@deisik
How is you system performing currently?

Is your income based on your bankroll? The more you have the faster you earn?

BTW why did you choose wolf.bet ? I think that house edge is very important in such system. Cryptogames has 0.8% instead of 1%. It also let you bet once per 10 milliseconds (6000 bets per minute 360 000 per hour - 12 M in 1.5 day)

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