Martingale revisited

[deisik]

~
Then I went for lower odds running series of 100k rolls (99999, to be exact), and I didn't encounter as long or longer streaks. It basically means that the sample size of 100k tests is just too small. It seems the size should be well over 1M rolls but it is impossible to test in a real casino. Indeed, we can still use an emulator but if the issue is with a hardware RNG, we won't see anything there, either

Those were my thoughts too, when I was reading your post, but then I decided to not discourage you because imo any test is better than none. 1M can also be not enough, but definitely better than 100k

Truth be told, I didn't cherish a lot of hope, either

Regarding stats, I remember a former Canadian casino operator or owner posted some of the stats that might be of interest to us. If I remember correctly, he said that there had been only one occasion when someone lost on a 50% win chance in a streak of 24 rolls out of a few billion bets recorded. The post should be still somewhere in the 2014-2015 threads on this board or its parent. Don't know if he is still active on the forum, though

[1714743384]

1714743384

[1714743384]

1714743384

[imstillthebest]

Everyone should avoid using martingale, it lends no advantage in usage and amplifys risk in the hope of winning it all back.    Thats a normal mistaken strategy by most new bettors anyway, its better to have an allotted budget each day and not try to chase after losses just separate each day or attempt at gambling and hope to learn something along the way.
  Theres one good reason why martingale strategy always pops up and over decades has been repeated, its simple and it appeals to the base instinct of a beginner.   Any easy strategy is my preference but its inferior to some discipline and actual learning by experience.

martingale isnt for beginner because it needs calculations before you apply it , not an exact calculation but just a close measurement to ensure that you can possibly hit your target payout before you got busted . till now i cant leave martingale  .

 i remember i rested for a while of using it but i still find myself coming back on it because i think i can win here in a less risky way than compare to flat betting which you can also end up too easily or too fast  .

[turkandjaydee]

martingale isnt for beginner because it needs calculations before you apply it , not an exact calculation but just a close measurement to ensure that you can possibly hit your target payout before you got busted . till now i cant leave martingale  .
(...)

Maybe it's not for the beginner but I think it's not that hard to use martingale or to calculate how much stake/money that you need to put to get your lost money back.

(...)
 i remember i rested for a while of using it but i still find myself coming back on it because i think i can win here in a less risky way than compare to flat betting which you can also end up too easily or too fast  .

Are you using martingale for sports/esports betting? If so, actually I think martingale strategy isn't suitable for sports/esports betting since it's not easy to find good odds on a specific match.

[swogerino]

Everyone should avoid using martingale, it lends no advantage in usage and amplifys risk in the hope of winning it all back.    Thats a normal mistaken strategy by most new bettors anyway, its better to have an allotted budget each day and not try to chase after losses just separate each day or attempt at gambling and hope to learn something along the way.
  Theres one good reason why martingale strategy always pops up and over decades has been repeated, its simple and it appeals to the base instinct of a beginner.   Any easy strategy is my preference but its inferior to some discipline and actual learning by experience.

While martingale is guaranteed to not work in the long term even allocating a daily budget for gambling is guaranteed to work either.When it comes to gambling strategies there is really none because almost all the kind of games needs a good dose of luck in order to win.

[deisik]

While martingale is guaranteed to not work in the long term even allocating a daily budget for gambling is guaranteed to work either

It depends on how you use this strategy

If you follow it mindlessly, then you are certainly guaranteed to bust. But in this regard, it is not much different from any other complex strategy in any other area, in gambling or elsewhere. When used wisely, your chances of running it successfully within a certain amount of time can be higher than losing. Given this, you can't really say that it is guaranteed to not work in the long term as long as "long term" is finite and accounted for

[skarais]

It depends on how you use this strategy

If you follow it mindlessly, then you are certainly guaranteed to bust. But in this regard, it is not much different from any other complex strategy in any other area, in gambling or elsewhere. When used wisely, your chances of running it successfully within a certain amount of time can be higher than losing. Given this, you can't really say that it is guaranteed to not work in the long term as long as "long term" is finite and accounted for

You might be right because something that is forced can end in failure.

Martingale strategy can actually increase the chances of winning, but it can also increase the opportunity to spend all available capital in a number of roll. One effort to prevent capital from running out of this strategy is on the number of bets. Set the bet value on the smallest unit and start this strategy and reduce the chances of winning to get a higher multiplication. Also I think we must have a consistent target and time. 10% daily profit in my opinion is pretty good. Not playing all day is also a matter to consider. It would be very good if we have more capital to implement this strategy.

[deisik]

10% daily profit in my opinion is pretty good. Not playing all day is also a matter to consider. It would be very good if we have more capital to implement this strategy

Actually, I don't think you can safely earn 10% daily (like day in and day out) with martingale

To make your martingale endeavor really lasting, you should be looking toward exploiting variance, and that means waiting for outliers. However, the ones that are within your safety range don't come very often, perhaps, 1-2 weekly (yeah, it means using autobet). So the best you could reasonably hope for is more like 10% monthly. If you are looking for more aggressive approaches striving for bigger wins, you risk busting sooner than you would otherwise expect

[STT]

10% compound is a kings fortune in not alot of time really, its unlikely such a gain is possible reliably.   Of course gambling anything is possible but even 1% a day would quite nice after a while.   There is no such advantage given using this system, it can be calculated with maths so far as I know.   I might look for a link later to show this.