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Author Topic: There were only 3,3% of days In Bitcoin's History That Were Not Profitable  (Read 264 times)
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July 28, 2019, 08:24:46 PM
Last edit: July 28, 2019, 11:04:42 PM by SuperTA
 #1

Only 129 days out from 3857 days (3,3%) were not profitable in the history of bitcoin's trading. This means if you bought bitcoin, you are profitable. Except if you bought in those 3.3% cases. Yea, it's hard to believe but for an example...It took only 23 days for bitcoin to go from 8390 usd to almost 20.000 usd. In my opinion, even those buyers who bought at the top will eventually be in profit. If they hold of course! So the moral of the story is - just  HODL  Wink Until a massive adoption!
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July 28, 2019, 09:09:26 PM
 #2

Cool, but just because Bitcoin was very bullish in the first 10 years, doesn't mean it will keep being bullish forever. Things that actually drive the price are adoption and technological improvement of the protocol, they determine demand and the supply is always known. We are in a good spot now, as adoption is still growing and devs are working hard on making Bitcoin better, but things can change in the future.

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July 28, 2019, 09:26:14 PM
 #3

Anyone who bought at $14.000 or above has not been profitable for a long, long time. This percentage keeps rising now. I am curious, what did you use as reference or to calculate those numbers?
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July 28, 2019, 09:29:02 PM
 #4

Anyone who bought at $14.000 or above has not been profitable for a long, long time. This percentage keeps rising now. I am curious, what did you use as reference or to calculate those numbers?

If you consider all days, from the first day that you can trade bitcoin untill now.
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July 28, 2019, 09:42:38 PM
 #5

Can you explain with formulas how you calculate 3,3%? So, based on what price, you have reached this conclusion? For example, if I buy at the current price, what period will I be? Because if I had bought it a month ago, I would have lost.  Huh

 
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July 28, 2019, 10:11:10 PM
 #6

Those people who bought the 2017 peak are still waiting for the right time to sell but I believe many of them have already cut their losses. Because of most those people who bought during that time were brought by hype and trend of the bullish run. They don't have plans on how long they are willing to stay and their mindset is as long as they have bought bitcoin, they will become rich overnight which is the typical wrong mindset of the new investors.


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July 28, 2019, 10:12:50 PM
 #7

It's quite a meaningless figure since it only applies to those who keep holding, which most people don't do. Even in a bull run it's possible for people to actually lose money because of how even then we can experience price drops up to 25%, which people usually sell into because they think the party is over.

This figure is usually what you see perma bulls on social media post. It looks extremely bullish but holds little value if you actually think further than just what they want you to see.

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July 28, 2019, 10:17:44 PM
 #8

i don't get it. How did you arrive at this? Did you get this from somewhere? or you did figure it all out by yourself? And if you did figure those numbers by yourself, care to share how you did it? is the 'profitability' only applied to those who HODL? sorry for all this my questions. It's just that i don't get your theory.

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July 28, 2019, 10:45:22 PM
 #9

It's quite a meaningless figure since it only applies to those who keep holding, which most people don't do. Even in a bull run it's possible for people to actually lose money because of how even then we can experience price drops up to 25%, which people usually sell into because they think the party is over.

This figure is usually what you see perma bulls on social media post. It looks extremely bullish but holds little value if you actually think further than just what they want you to see.

That's why i said the moral of the story is to HODL! Grin
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July 28, 2019, 10:47:14 PM
Last edit: July 28, 2019, 11:07:13 PM by SuperTA
 #10

Such information can be gladdening but am struggling to believe it could be absolutely true. 129 days? what of the whole 2018 days? we saw some bad days last year.

Bitcoin went up from 8390 usd to almost 20k in 23 days!

How to calculate, simple, 129 days out from 3857 days is aproximetly 3,33%
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July 29, 2019, 02:22:26 AM
 #11

Can you explain with formulas how you calculate 3,3%? So, based on what price, you have reached this conclusion? For example, if I buy at the current price, what period will I be? Because if I had bought it a month ago, I would have lost.  Huh

What it basically means is that Bitcoin is still more expensive now than it was on 96.7% days of its existence. In a vacuum, it implies that Bitcoin is an incredibly safe investment, with past investors having had a 96.7% chance to turn profit. In reality though, lots of people buy in peaks or the middle of bull runs (a lot of which may fall under the 3.3% as more and more people are required to buy in as prices get bigger), so it's quite a meaningless statistic. It's just your run of the mill clickbait, except it's in favor of Bitcoin.

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July 29, 2019, 02:27:01 AM
Last edit: July 29, 2019, 02:40:55 AM by SuperTA
 #12

Can you explain with formulas how you calculate 3,3%? So, based on what price, you have reached this conclusion? For example, if I buy at the current price, what period will I be? Because if I had bought it a month ago, I would have lost.  Huh

What it basically means is that Bitcoin is still more expensive now than it was on 96.7% days of its existence. In a vacuum, it implies that Bitcoin is an incredibly safe investment, with past investors having had a 96.7% chance to turn profit. In reality though, lots of people buy in peaks or the middle of bull runs (a lot of which may fall under the 3.3% as more and more people are required to buy in as prices get bigger), so it's quite a meaningless statistic. It's just your run of the mill clickbait, except it's in favor of Bitcoin.

Why is that a meaningless statistic? I don't know any other asset that has made so many millionaires like bitcoin did. Even if you were not investing and you were just mining. Can you show me any other asset that has outperformed bitcoin in 10 years of existance? You say more and more people has to buy to maintaine it's growth. Not true! Look at the google trends for bitcoin. There is less interest in bitcoin than before but the price is rising. It's not important how many people invest but how much they invest. And there is a lot of room for adoption cuz majority of people still didn't buy bitcoin. There will be a high demand for bitcoin in the future cuz it's a new digital gold. People will eventually adopt new things.
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July 29, 2019, 05:13:11 AM
 #13

-snip-

Why is that a meaningless statistic? I don't know any other asset that has made so many millionaires like bitcoin did. Even if you were not investing and you were just mining. Can you show me any other asset that has outperformed bitcoin in 10 years of existance? You say more and more people has to buy to maintaine it's growth. Not true! Look at the google trends for bitcoin. There is less interest in bitcoin than before but the price is rising. It's not important how many people invest but how much they invest. And there is a lot of room for adoption cuz majority of people still didn't buy bitcoin. There will be a high demand for bitcoin in the future cuz it's a new digital gold. People will eventually adopt new things.

It's meaningless because all it's essentially saying is that we're better off today than most of Bitcoin's days. It's reassuring and puts the current situation into perspective, but then what? What can we do with that tidbit of information?

That's all well and good, but I never said Bitcoin wasn't profitable, just that an average person probably won't have a 96.7% chance to profit like the topic implies.

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July 29, 2019, 05:28:39 AM
 #14

With any analysis, I find Bitcoin is a currency that always brings profits to investors, especially for the holders.
We can see that bitcoin is growing every year. It is quite suitable for those who prefer long-term investment.

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July 29, 2019, 07:22:12 AM
 #15

Only 129 days out from 3857 days (3,3%) were not profitable in the history of bitcoin's trading. This means if you bought bitcoin, you are profitable. Except if you bought in those 3.3% cases. Yea, it's hard to believe but for an example...It took only 23 days for bitcoin to go from 8390 usd to almost 20.000 usd. In my opinion, even those buyers who bought at the top will eventually be in profit. If they hold of course! So the moral of the story is - just  HODL  Wink Until a massive adoption!
How does your analysis that sets 3.3% is an unprofitable condition while others are profitable? even in the year of coming here for a full year is a condition of almost no growth, fluctuations cannot be measured as accurate as such, moreover the current conditions do not guarantee higher growth and with demand that can change easily. In my opinion as a user we also have to have good information, so that we know when HODL, SELL and BUY, I'm sure some users are also very difficult to do HODL / HOLD.

 
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July 29, 2019, 07:22:23 AM
 #16

How to calculate, simple, 129 days out from 3857 days is aproximetly 3,33%

Yes, we got it

But how did you get 129 days which were not profitable for Bitcoin? Bitcoin had been sliding down since January 2018 till February 2019, i.e. for more than a year. The way you put it implies that your base period (on which you calculate the financial outcome) is one day. But in that case Bitcoin has seen more losing days than profitable ones simply because price typically rises fast (actually, extremely fast) and then spirals down excruciatingly slow, like for weeks and months (and in a couple of cases, for years)

It's meaningless because all it's essentially saying is that we're better off today than most of Bitcoin's days. It's reassuring and puts the current situation into perspective, but then what? What can we do with that tidbit of information?

That still doesn't account for 129 losing days. In fact, it can be useful but we need to know the methodology used in order to make something tangible out of this information

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July 29, 2019, 07:30:13 AM
 #17

Also, if people make use of the short-term volatility in Bitcoin, they should be more profitable. A lot of my friends are not day-trading, but they use the short-term volatility to their advantage to be more profitable. Buy at a low price today, wait for the price to increase with say 10% and then sell for a quick profit and then wait for the price to dip with 10% and re-invest the initial amount. <without the profit>

The people who do not profit are those people who are hoarding and waiting for the big pay-day that might never come. They tend to panic when the price dip aggressively and then they sell too early. There are loads of opportunities for people to get some small profits, if they use the short-term volatility.  Wink

 
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July 29, 2019, 08:15:58 AM
 #18

-snip
That still doesn't account for 129 losing days. In fact, it can be useful but we need to know the methodology used in order to make something tangible out of this information

I'm not sure, but I think he might have looked over the historical data and counted the days when Bitcoin's (day average?) price was lower than it is now, meaning he found a grand total of 129 days that fit that criteria. If I understand correctly, what he's trying to say is that if you had picked a day at random (from its inception) to invest in Bitcoin, you'd have around a 96.7% chance to have turned a profit with current prices. It's probably something like this tweet, which gained a fair amount of attention:

You made money if you bought Bitcoin and held it until today in 122 of the 125 months that Bitcoin has been available.

The only three months that have been unprofitable were December 2017 and January / February 2018.

I don't see how that could be useful, but hey, it would be great if it could.

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July 29, 2019, 09:22:17 AM
 #19

How to calculate, simple, 129 days out from 3857 days is aproximetly 3,33%

Yes, we got it

But how did you get 129 days which were not profitable for Bitcoin? Bitcoin had been sliding down since January 2018 till February 2019, i.e. for more than a year. The way you put it implies that your base period (on which you calculate the financial outcome) is one day. But in that case Bitcoin has seen more losing days than profitable ones simply because price typically rises fast (actually, extremely fast) and then spirals down excruciatingly slow, like for weeks and months (and in a couple of cases, for years)

It's meaningless because all it's essentially saying is that we're better off today than most of Bitcoin's days. It's reassuring and puts the current situation into perspective, but then what? What can we do with that tidbit of information?

That still doesn't account for 129 losing days. In fact, it can be useful but we need to know the methodology used in order to make something tangible out of this information

Because we are above that price and you shouldn't count the days below 10k or 9.5k
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July 29, 2019, 09:24:38 AM
 #20

-snip
That still doesn't account for 129 losing days. In fact, it can be useful but we need to know the methodology used in order to make something tangible out of this information

I'm not sure, but I think he might have looked over the historical data and counted the days when Bitcoin's (day average?) price was lower than it is now, meaning he found a grand total of 129 days that fit that criteria

You likely meant to say higher, right?

That is, there are (were) only 129 or so days when today's price was lower than in those days. Obviously, that refers to the period of the recent spike to nearly 14k as well as the period in November through December of 2017. But this is a ridiculous approach since somewhere near the end of 2017 it could be said that Bitcoin had been profitable throughout its entire lifetime (up to that date)

It's probably something like this tweet, which gained a fair amount of attention:

You made money if you bought Bitcoin and held it until today in 122 of the 125 months that Bitcoin has been available

This train of reasoning is not far from suggesting to ride a time machine and get back to 2010 in order to buy up thousands of bitcoins for pennies

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