Did Satoshi think that quantum computers will exist?

[newBTCdecade]

We are getting closer:

The boss of Google has warned that quantum computers will be able to break encryption within as little as five years, signalling the growing threat to privacy such technological advances.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/01/22/googles-sundar-pichai-quantum-computing-could-end-encryption/
"In a five to ten year time frame, quantum computing will break encryption as we know it today."

@ developers: When will we implement quantum computer resistant addresses?
@ satoshi: You filled the blockchain with your early mined coins and the quantum transformation will be very interesting. Who will get the most coins?

[1715152155]

1715152155

[gerica0613]

It's just not possible to predict what's gonna happen in 7-10 years, especially when the tech itself isn't even finalized

[newBTCdecade]

It's just not possible to predict what's gonna happen in 7-10 years, especially when the tech itself isn't even finalized

Yes, not predictable. It could even happen tomorrow.

'Whoever achieves it first - and it could be within as little as three years according to Cheng - don't expect to learn about it in the news.'

Move your coins from old addresses to make them quantum secure.
'Shalecoins', coins with no owner ' https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5134441.0 will be 'fracked'..

Quantum computers will surprise the Bitcoin community. The 'shalecoins' will be moved and will become active.

[d.kevin29]

He probably did not, but we also don’t know if and when it will happen either.  And it is possible that quantum computing could be used to protect Bitcoin as well.

We don't know if and when what will happen?

We are getting closer:

The boss of Google has warned that quantum computers will be able to break encryption within as little as five years, signalling the growing threat to privacy such technological advances.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/01/22/googles-sundar-pichai-quantum-computing-could-end-encryption/
"In a five to ten year time frame, quantum computing will break encryption as we know it today."

First of all, these quantum computers will not be end-user products for a long time. They are also not designed & used as of now with malicious intent, so any breakthrough regarding cryptocurrencies such as quantum computing being able to "decrypt" blockchains will most likely only add more strength to it and turn quantum computing into a real world problem, which would turn into us all coming together to add, if possible, a quantum-resistant layer to the existing Bitcoin blockchain.

Second of all, quantum computing is a threat to a lot of things before Bitcoin. If quantum computing becomes available to anyone, it would open the possibilities of extreme cyber-attacks the world has never seen before. We aren't ready for quantum computing, the internet itself isn't at all. Before cryptocurrencies, we must protect everything else. The governments themselves are at risk, so is the internet as we know it.

Therefore, we must first develop ways to protect everything we know against quantum computers. They will be in our homes soon enough (although probably a decade or two, that still is very close), so we must basically re-invent security in order to apply it not against very powerful PCs and servers but against this breakthrough technology called Quantum Computing.

Trust me, there are computers more powerful even than quantum but nobody says a thing yet. In research and laboratories there is always something new, something better. That doesn't mean it's a published information. When they're ready, they will publish it. Research is decades ahead of end-user products.

Satoshi did know about it. Quantum was a thing before year 2000. Don't tell me the man who created Bitcoin does not know what quantum is. But we barely have solutions yet against it, why are some people expecting he should've created protection against it in BTC's blockchain? And there's not only this but also the fact that Bitcoin is now helped by tens/hundreds of thousands of developers. Maybe even millions, if we consider everyone involved in the total number of people working on cryptocurrency projects.

It's one mind vs the world. Even as a genius as he probably is, there's always going to be contradiction & improvement when you put a brain next to 8 billion of them.

[senin]

Satoshi Nakamoto has been creating cryptocurrency as an alternative means of payment for existing payment systems. It is simply impossible to calculate in advance the development of other technologies and their possible impact on cryptocurrency.
There is a chance of hacking cryptocurrency wallets using quantum computers, but it’s hard to say how it will be in practice.

[moviebuff777]

He probably didn’t consider quantum computing and at the time, the length of the private key provides a lot of security.

We also should remember that quantum computing is only theoretical at this point and may not do what everyone is speculating.

[imstillthebest]

He probably didn’t consider quantum computing and at the time, the length of the private key provides a lot of security.

We also should remember that quantum computing is only theoretical at this point and may not do what everyone is speculating.

he invented bitcoin a long time ago and quantum computing was only a concept that time so he didnt bother it  .

now i guess there are now few quantum computers invented and satoshi feels threatened because these kind of computers are powerful and can possibly crack and bypass all system  including the strong cryptography and blockhain  .  lets hope that im wrong and your right   . people should not build it to destroy other technology  because that will be a total disaster

[satoshyknew]

Satoshi did know about it. Quantum was a thing before year 2000. Don't tell me the man who created Bitcoin does not know what quantum is.

If we look at the history of quantum computers, it started around 1980's, so definitely, Satoshi have known and think about quantum computers because it is already existing and developing even before Bitcoin was created.

Why did he not move his early mined P2PK Bitcoins to quantum resistant P2PKH addresses?

Satoshi knew that one day quantum computers will exist and will be able to move the early mined coins (P2PK) and created an unofficial prize competition to accelerate the development.

Maybe Satoshi created the greatest prize competition and the privatekeys are somehow within the blockchain.

Our guess is that he knew that the early mined coins will be moved one day. So he created a 'prize competition'. Otherwise he could move the coins to quantum resistant P2PKH addresses, but he did not and is not doing.

The only question is:

Who will win the race and get the early coins?

Quantum computing or solving the "Satoshi Prize Competition".

Nobody can stop that race.

[DannyHamilton]

We are getting closer:

The boss of Google

I assume you are talking about Sundar Pichai, the CEO of Alphabet, Inc and Google LLC?  He's not a "technology" officer, he's a business officer.  That being said...

has warned that quantum computers will be able to break encryption within as little as five years, signalling the growing threat to privacy such technological advances.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/01/22/googles-sundar-pichai-quantum-computing-could-end-encryption/

What exactly does he mean when he says it will "break encryption"?

MD5 hashing has been "broken" since 1996, and yet would probably still work just fine as a Bitcoin hashing algorithm.

Without details of what will be broken, and how it will be effected, it's just an arbitrary opinion about a very generic concept.

[Dabs]

I think we'll be fine for the immediate future. If any real world cryptographic breaks happen, the rest of the internet will find out first, and then we can consider upgrading key sizes or algorithms.

For the most part, both symmetric and asymmetric encryption are relatively safe from brute force as long as you use larger than 128 bit keys or the equivalent. Hash functions work similarly.


Also, someone please define "quantum resistant" bitcoin addresses. I believe even the legacy addresses that are unspent with no other outgoing transactions are quantum resistant already.

[newBTCdecade]

I believe even the legacy addresses that are unspent with no other outgoing transactions are quantum resistant already.

The legacy P2PK addresses, even unspent with no outgoing transactions, are not quantum resistant. Satoshi knows it, but he has more than 1 million Bitcoins on P2PK addresses.
That's the reason why one should transfer the Bitcoins from old P2PK addresses or used addresses to new unused addresses to make them quantum resistant.

[Buff Mage]

elon musks priority is public utility.
by this i mean space transport
human transport
goods transport
..
so i dont see elon getting in on the QC game..

VOLKSWAGEN CARRIED OUT THE WORLD'S FIRST PILOT PROJECT FOR TRAFFIC OPTIMIZATION WITH A QUANTUM COMPUTER
https://www.quantaneo.com/Volkswagen-carried-out-the-world-s-first-pilot-project-for-traffic-optimization-with-a-quantum-computer_a366.html

Ford and Microsoft pilot quantum-inspired routing to reduce congestion
https://www.intelligenttransport.com/transport-news/93711/ford-microsoft-pilot-quantum-inspired-routing-reduce-congestion/

Microsoft and Ford try using quantum-style computing to solve Seattle’s traffic problem
https://www.geekwire.com/2019/microsoft-ford-try-using-quantum-style-computing-solve-seattles-traffic-problems/


In the future: no optimized transportation without quantum computers
Re: Is Elon Musk developing a quantum computer?

Quantum chip solves ‘travelling salesman’ problem for 22 cities
https://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/research-news/quantum-chip-solves-travelling-salesman-problem-22-cities-2020-01/
'''According to the university, this is “something that would take about 1,200 years for a high-performance von Neumann CPU”, but the chip “can solve the travelling salesman problem for 22 cities instantly” until now using quantum processing it “has only been able to solve the travelling salesman problem involving a maximum of 16 cities”.
A quantum annealing computer is not a full-blown quantum computer, of the type that could crack encryption for example, which no one has yet made – or if they have, they are keeping quiet about it.'''


My opinion:

Quantum computers will surprise the Bitcoin community..

[QuickReview]

We don't think that QC development will happen step by step. Our expectation is that someone will find a QC technology, that allows "far beyond expectations" numbers of qubits, that will allow this QC to get all private keys immediately.
We think that such a QC will surprise the Bitcoin community and only thereafter we will upgrade to a quantum resistant Bitcoin network. We hope that the user of such a QC to get the private keys, knows exactly how Bitcoin works and allows the owners to transfer their coins to the new QC resistant addresses. It would be a win-win game: the QC user would get the "lost" coins, the Bitcoin owners could transfer their coins to QC resistant addresses, the Bitcoin ecosystem wouldn't be affected, we would have a stronger Bitcoin network. How would a QC user act: starting with the oldest "lost" coins and moving them, so that the Bitcoin community can realize that someone is moving the "lost" coins (e.g. a special posting board here on bitcointalk) but gives the owners the possibility to transfer their coins to other addresses. In the meantime we will have a very quick "quantum resistance upgrade". And it will continue like DannyHamilton described it:

The coins that are still remaining in the weak transaction outputs once Quantum Technology becomes a realistic threat will be those coins that are effectively "lost".  The QC owners will become the new owners of those coins, and Bitcoin will carry on as it always has.

but stronger

An instruction for a quantum computer owner if he/she/they is/are pro Bitcoin and want to make Bitcoin better and stronger.

[Buff Mage]

so i dont see elon getting in on the QC game..

Google’s head of quantum computing, Hartmut Neven:
“In the future race between a Tesla and a Porsche, if one had access to quantum computers and the other company didn’t, the one that doesn’t have access to a quantum processor will lose out because with the quantum process at hand, you will be able to accelerate your battery development very quickly.”
https://dailyhodl.com/2020/02/02/googles-quantum-computing-chief-says-chinas-ambition-may-threaten-us-lead/

Elon Musk needs a quantum computer.

And the Bitcoin network is a place where you can prove that you own a quantum computer, an indicator.

Elon Musk
✔
@elonmusk
Cryptocurrency is my safe word
Apr 2019
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1117100699798478849


He met the boss of Google?

The boss of Google has warned that quantum computers will be able to break encryption within as little as five years, signalling the growing threat to privacy such technological advances.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/01/22/googles-sundar-pichai-quantum-computing-could-end-encryption/
"In a five to ten year time frame, quantum computing will break encryption as we know it today."

Buff Mage
✔
@elonmusk
 Bitcoin is *not* my safe word
Jan 2020
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1215526980449255424

My opinion:

Quantum computers will surprise the Bitcoin community..

[2ndGENQC]

Satoshi did know about it. Quantum was a thing before year 2000. Don't tell me the man who created Bitcoin does not know what quantum is.

If we look at the history of quantum computers, it started around 1980's, so definitely, Satoshi have known and think about quantum computers because it is already existing and developing even before Bitcoin was created.

Re: Did Satoshi think that quantum computers will exist?

He also knew that "second generation quantum computers" will exist.

And for the "second generation quantum computers" people are already developing post SHA-hash signature systems. So we would then change to post SHA-hash signature systems before "second generation quantum computers" exist.

The development of "second generation quantum computers" will bring the most exciting times, hashing will be history. We will make all "lost" coins active.

[cloudQuantum]

Satoshi knew that QC will exist.

But not like this one: The $600 quantum computer that could spell the end for conventional encryption https://betanews.com/2020/02/17/quantum-computing-encryption-cracking/
Quantum computing will be cloud computing.

And yes, the "lost" coins will move one day.

[pawanjain]

Satoshi has mined the most coins.
In 2010 they were talking about lost coins and Satoshi said

Think of it as a donation to everyone.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=198.0

1. He thought the coins are lost forever and we have a lot of 'shalecoins' https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5134441.0 and they will become active one day

or

2. Satoshi created the greatest prize competition and the privatekeys are somehow within the blockchain. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5150688.0

1. Yes, with quantum computers they would become active. Did Satoshi think that quantum computers will exist?

I think we should know what is the quantum computers first? And I think this video is the most understanable information way.

https://www.ted.com/talks/shohini_ghose_quantum_computing_explained_in_10_minutes?utm_campaign=tedspread&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=tedcomshare

If you know what is the quantum computer now. Then you may understand it is not possible to know this things 10 years before.

I saw the whole video and now I have a doubt. The host said that quantum computer can be used to create private keys.
If that's possible then I believe quantum computers can also be used to hack the private keys of other users.
This will make the bitcoin network very vulnerable and hence will break the network eventually by creating a panic in the market.

[johnyj]

I think we should know what is the quantum computers first? And I think this video is the most understanable information way.

https://www.ted.com/talks/shohini_ghose_quantum_computing_explained_in_10_minutes?utm_campaign=tedspread&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=tedcomshare

If you know what is the quantum computer now. Then you may understand it is not possible to know this things 10 years before.

This video, togher with hundreds of other quantum computer videos I saw, none of them make sense. They typically show you some numbers, did not tell you how did they get those numbers, and just tell you what does those numbers mean, and then it is done

This is similar to : Look at KPI, data proven that inflation is low, so we need to print more money

[kemoglo]

Satoshi has mined the most coins.
In 2010 they were talking about lost coins and Satoshi said

Think of it as a donation to everyone.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=198.0

1. He thought the coins are lost forever and we have a lot of 'shalecoins' https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5134441.0 and they will become active one day

or

2. Satoshi created the greatest prize competition and the privatekeys are somehow within the blockchain. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5150688.0

1. Yes, with quantum computers they would become active. Did Satoshi think that quantum computers will exist?

Possibly, if he did he just didn't prepare for it because it was far enough that Bitcoin would work as a PoC for cryptography as a method to liberate the economy and give it back to the people who really use it instead of hoarding it.

[FanatMonet]

Most likely he suspected that in the foreseeable future, quantum computers would be quite widespread. So far, they mainly work in various laboratories at major universities, but I think that we will see the day when the majority will have quantum computers.