Did Satoshi think that quantum computers will exist?

[AjithBtc]

Without doubt Satoshi is much aware of the technology advancement, and the same has made him innovate the technology to be so strong. If he hadn't thought of the future he could've created in a simple manner and might have got crashed by the recent super computers that's been made. Now to break the technology it requires years and before the same surely the blockchain technology will get more stronger than the present.

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[X-ray]

We don't know if Satoshi's real intention is to build a blockhain in which you need to solved the block in order to go into the next block so maybe Satoshi thinks about the quantum computing in order to be more easy on solving the blocks in order to go into the second block and so on. I think Satoshi was very bright and early to think about what would be happen on the near future because he maybe think already that quantum computers will be built in order to used in quantum computing and quantum physics. This probably the main reason why blockchain technology became known by the masses or the people.

Quite the contrary quantum computer is not gonna be used to solve blocks since none of miners gonna use that but instead it will be used to attack bitcoin's encryption and that's what people feared the most. Although, quantum computer in the future will be in the hand if government or big corporation, before that happen we need to find a way for bitcoin to make it immune against quantum computer. Speaking about satoshi, I think he did know that quantum computer will exist since the idea of quantum computer already proposed back then.

[Spaffin]

Quite often, cryptocurrency users speak about concerns about cryptocurrency security due to the high capabilities of a quantum computer.  I know that when the appropriate time comes, experts will be able to protect the cryptocurrency from a quantum computer, about which more than once there have been statements by experts.  But if we talk about what Satoshi Nakamoto thought, then I believe that he should have assumed that in the future a more sophisticated technology would appear that could facilitate the work of hackers and that bitcoin would be in danger.

[goodoldblockchain]

Quantum computing boost for IBM but Bitcoin stays safe https://decrypt.co/16211/quantum-computing-boost-for-ibm-but-bitcoin-stays-safe
IBM has doubled the power of its quantum computer but Bitcoin's encryption is still far from being broken.
"IBM has doubled the power of its quantum computer. At yesterday's CES 2020 conference, the company announced it had successfully achieved a Quantum Volume of 32 using its 28-qubit quantum computer known as Raleigh."
"As a network built entirely around cryptographically secured transactions, it stands to reason that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could eventually crack the encryption used to generate Bitcoin private keys. However, according to a June 2017 paper by Martin Roetteler and several co-authors, such as a machine would need to command approximately 2,500 qubits of processing power to break the 256-bit encryption used by Bitcoin."

Interesting. I know 2500 is far from current 28 qubit but it still scares me a little. Not long ago I've read about 11-qubit quantum computer. How long do you think it will take to develop 2500 qubit computer? I hope Moore's law doesn't apply here.

https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/is-quantum-technology-the-future-of-the-world/
"However, as per an article which was published by Martin Roetteler and various co-authors in June in 2017, such type of a machine requires approximately 2,500 qubits of processing power so that they can crack the 256-bit encryption technology which is used by Bitcoin.
Since the most powerful quantum computer which the world currently has only consisted of 72 qubit processors, one thing is clear that it will take several years for a quantum computer to reach the level of threatening encryption technology."

[Buff Mage]

Do you understand his tweet?

https://azcoinnews.com/elon-musk-dropped-a-bitcoin-bomb-on-twitter-bitcoin-is-not-my-safe-word.html

Buff Mage
✔
@elonmusk
 Bitcoin is *not* my safe word

Founder, CEO, Lead Designer of SpaceX
CEO, Product Architect of Tesla, Inc.
Co-founder of Neuralink
Founder of The Boring Company
Co-founder of Zip2
Founder of X.com (now PayPal)
Co-founder of OpenAI
Chairman of SolarCity

Why not
Chairman of Mega Qubit Quantum

Is he developing a quantum computer?

Maybe Elon Musk read that post

Satoshi knew that one day quantum computers will exist and will be able to move the early mined coins (P2PK) and created an unofficial prize competition to accelerate the development.

Maybe Satoshi created the greatest prize competition and the privatekeys are somehow within the blockchain.

Our guess is that he knew that the early mined coins will be moved one day. So he created a 'prize competition'. Otherwise he could move the coins to quantum resistant P2PKH addresses, but he did not and is not doing.

The only question is:

Who will win the race and get the early coins?

Quantum computing or solving the "Satoshi Prize Competition".

Nobody can stop that race.

[Lauren Smith]

It is inevitable that technology will constantly become better and faster. This means security will jee to buff up to keep up with the power of the latest technology that could be used to crack security. I guess when quantum computing becomes a threat to bitcoin that all miners will move to it too and then there will not be a problem since the bitcoin network s made of many quantum computers and their added power will be very difficult to stop so it will be plenty secure. As far as private keys go the same will happen.

[NotATether]

Interesting. I know 2500 is far from current 28 qubit but it still scares me a little. Not long ago I've read about 11-qubit quantum computer. How long do you think it will take to develop 2500 qubit computer? I hope Moore's law doesn't apply here.

Well, a qubit is like a normal bit in the way it holds information. 1 qubit can have two values like 1 bit, 2 qubits can hold double that so 2500 qubits is going to hold 2^2500 units of information which is way more than what today's 64-bit computers can hold. For reference, 64-bit memory can theoretically hold 8 exabytes of data. But quantum computers like the 28-qubit one need enormous tower cases to keep the temperature at absolute zero. I read somewhere that a 2500 qubit computer would have to be as large as a soccer field so that would have to be a very large and long-term project which would take a decade or two to make.

[Linkkoin]

Of course. As well as he thought about cold fusion nuclear reactors.
The point is that 10 years ago quantum had the same status as cold fusion.

Only in the last 5 years, this came true. And the technology is still very problematic in use, just as the first computers like eniac.

Still, just like in military - you protect yourself from current threats, not ones which may or may not exist in the next 20 years or so (considering that in computers, 20 years is enormous amount of time, much bigger than in military itself)

[bitcoindusts]

If we look at the history of quantum computers, it started around 1980's, so definitely, Satoshi have known and think about quantum computers because it is already existing and developing even before Bitcoin was created.  But he knew that Bitcoin will develop a quantum resistant shield even before this quantum computer catch up to the  Bitcoin encryption.

Quantum computing began in the early 1980s, when physicist Paul Benioff proposed a quantum mechanical model of the Turing machine.[3] Richard Feynman and Yuri Manin later suggested that a quantum computer could perform simulations that are out of reach for regular computers.[4][5] In 1994, Peter Shor developed a polynomial-time quantum algorithm for factoring integers.[6] This was a major breakthrough in the subject: an important method of asymmetric key exchange known as RSA is based on the belief that factoring integers is computationally difficult. The existence of a polynomial-time quantum algorithm proves that one of the most widely used cryptographic protocols is vulnerable to an adversary who possesses a quantum computer.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_computing

[satoshyknew]

If we look at the history of quantum computers, it started around 1980's, so definitely, Satoshi have known and think about quantum computers because it is already existing and developing even before Bitcoin was created.

And he did not move his early mined P2PK Bitcoins to quantum resistant P2PKH addresses.

I guess when quantum computing becomes a threat to bitcoin that all miners will move to it too..

They will move to quantum computing to get Satoshi's early mined coins. Satoshi knew it and knows it. He could stop it through transfering these coins to P2PKH addresses today, but didn't and doesn't. He supports the better technology.
Do you remember what happened when people developed ASICs? They moved from PC mining to ASIC mining as it was better.
Bitcoin is a pure competition platform where the better devices win and Satoshi rewards the first quantum computer owners with his early mined coins.

[whyrqa]

Of course. As well as he thought about cold fusion nuclear reactors.
The point is that 10 years ago quantum had the same status as cold fusion.

Only in the last 5 years, this came true. And the technology is still very problematic in use, just as the first computers like eniac.

Still, just like in military - you protect yourself from current threats, not ones which may or may not exist in the next 20 years or so (considering that in computers, 20 years is enormous amount of time, much bigger than in military itself)

In fact, when a military threat or military competition arises between countries, each country acts at its discretion in order to contrast one weapon with a completely different one.  The same applies to the computer, because if you are already talking about a quantum computer today, especially considering the beginning of its development several decades ago, today you need to work on ensuring security for cryptocurrency, since everyone should understand the capabilities of a quantum computer and how much  helpless may be Bitcoin in front of this machine. But as I understand it, most users worry about their earnings in the near future in order to earn more money using cryptocurrency volatility, and they are not interested in security in the future.

[darkangel11]

Quantum computing boost for IBM but Bitcoin stays safe https://decrypt.co/16211/quantum-computing-boost-for-ibm-but-bitcoin-stays-safe
IBM has doubled the power of its quantum computer but Bitcoin's encryption is still far from being broken.
"IBM has doubled the power of its quantum computer. At yesterday's CES 2020 conference, the company announced it had successfully achieved a Quantum Volume of 32 using its 28-qubit quantum computer known as Raleigh."
"As a network built entirely around cryptographically secured transactions, it stands to reason that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could eventually crack the encryption used to generate Bitcoin private keys. However, according to a June 2017 paper by Martin Roetteler and several co-authors, such as a machine would need to command approximately 2,500 qubits of processing power to break the 256-bit encryption used by Bitcoin."

There's a lot of time to update Bitcoin to an even stronger encryption.

I expect that by the time some company finally reaches 2,5k people in China will already be mining Bitcoin on quantum miners and the network security and encryption will double. We had vital updates to Bitcoin in the past and we can have them in the coming years.

[Buff Mage]

There's a lot of time to update Bitcoin to an even stronger encryption.

We will have a quantum resistant upgrade. People will transfer their coins to quantum resistant addresses, but a lot of coins (million+) won't be moved to these secure addresses as they are "lost" coins and nobody can move them.
Which fork will you use post quantum?
a) the fork with all Bitcoins where quantum computer owners will get the "lost" coins and will be the new owners.
b) the fork where "lost" coins are burnt and can't have new owners.

[qubitasic]

Quantum computing boost for IBM but Bitcoin stays safe https://decrypt.co/16211/quantum-computing-boost-for-ibm-but-bitcoin-stays-safe
IBM has doubled the power of its quantum computer but Bitcoin's encryption is still far from being broken.
"IBM has doubled the power of its quantum computer. At yesterday's CES 2020 conference, the company announced it had successfully achieved a Quantum Volume of 32 using its 28-qubit quantum computer known as Raleigh."
"As a network built entirely around cryptographically secured transactions, it stands to reason that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could eventually crack the encryption used to generate Bitcoin private keys. However, according to a June 2017 paper by Martin Roetteler and several co-authors, such as a machine would need to command approximately 2,500 qubits of processing power to break the 256-bit encryption used by Bitcoin."

Interesting. I know 2500 is far from current 28 qubit but it still scares me a little. Not long ago I've read about 11-qubit quantum computer. How long do you think it will take to develop 2500 qubit computer? I hope Moore's law doesn't apply here.

Will Quantum Volume Be The Next Moore’s Law? https://www.designnews.com/design-hardware-software/will-quantum-volume-be-next-moore-s-law/62963653562205
Doubling performance every year is now the benchmark for quantum computers as designers look to EDA vendors for new automation tools.
IBM’s Rasit Onur Topaloglu: "I am not going to project when we will reach 200 qubits, but we already have an 80 qubits architecture."

According to the chart: 2500 qubits reached by year 2025

We have to begin with the implementation of quantum resistant Bitcoin addresses soon.

[Artemis3]

Quantum computers are a long ways away from becoming general purpose computers. As of right now, quantum computers are highly limited to only being able to perform specific kinds of calculations and tasks. There is no threat stemming from quantum computers at the moment and there won't be for quite some time now.
   I would worry if quantum computers became commercially available like smartphones, then there would probably be room for panic to ensue. I believe that people have been watching way too many science fiction movies. 

Nobody expects them to. Quantum computing is additional to general computing, what people probably mean is that your general computer will be also quantum capable, i think something like a quantum co-processor will appear at some point. At this point, you WILL see quantum crypto algorithms implemented, which solves the problem entirely.

So its the opposite. Once "everyone" has it, it is solved. The problem is the transition, when only a few can own one. Your worry is from today, until "quantum computers became commercially available like smartphones" when you can easily use quantum crypto algorithms.

This is also the reason the mitigations should not be delayed too long, but always keep in mind of that the actual solution is.

[Linkkoin]

But as I understand it, most users worry about their earnings in the near future in order to earn more money using cryptocurrency volatility, and they are not interested in security in the future.

In general, many people do not think in a perspective longer than 5 years. But luckily there are notable exemptions which think forward and therefore we already have some teams of developers trying to address this future threat.

[bitcoindusts]

There's a lot of time to update Bitcoin to an even stronger encryption.

We will have a quantum resistant upgrade. People will transfer their coins to quantum resistant addresses, but a lot of coins (million+) won't be moved to these secure addresses as they are "lost" coins and nobody can move them.
Which fork will you use post quantum?
a) the fork with all Bitcoins where quantum computer owners will get the "lost" coins and will be the new owners.
b) the fork where "lost" coins are burnt and can't have new owners.

It seems the first choice (a) is inevitable.  Once fork started, those addresses that did not follow instructions or left untouched will be vulnerable to being decoded by quantum computers.  Unless the developers got the first hand on those coins, there is no other option but that first one (a).

[useless4]

I think Bitcoin developers can be kinda ready for somebody trying to use a quantum computer in the future to mine bitcoins and they're going to provide some security from such calculations. And besides, a quantum computer's technology is extremely expensive and hard to introduce, so we wouldn't be seriously worried about that in the coming years. To be fair, I believe it will be a threat only in like 20 years or so.

[moviebuff777]

He probably did not, but we also don’t know if and when it will happen either.  And it is possible that quantum computing could be used to protect Bitcoin as well.

[newBTCdecade]

How the Crypto World Is Preparing for Quantum Computing, Explained
https://cointelegraph.com/explained/how-the-crypto-world-is-preparing-for-quantum-computing-explained

"While present-day quantum computers cannot break blockchains and their underlying cryptography, larger ones on the horizon are a threat, indeed, and need to be prepared for."

@ developers: When will we implement quantum computer resistant addresses?
@ satoshi: You filled the blockchain with your early mined coins and the quantum transformation will be very interesting. Who will get the most coins?