How can buying 1Th/s machines now be profitable?!?

[sale]

So, if we say that 1Th/s machines now cost 5900$ plus shipping and optional customs/tax, let's say it's 6500$ in total...
If I enter into calculator that:
- average diff increase is 20%
- electricity bills are 0$
maximum profit this machine can make before new year is: 5400$

Now did I get something wrong or what?!?!
Check yourself:

http://aleks1k.github.io/bitcoin-calculator/?Hashrate=1&HashrateLevel=1e12&HardwarePower=200&Difficulty=4250217919.87&DifficultyIncrement=0.203&StartDate=NaN&EndDate=NaN&PoolFee=0&ElectricityPrice=0&Currency=USD&CurrencyRate=636.66#BTC

[1714950704]

1714950704

[1714950704]

1714950704

[Kenshin]

That is why it is not worth buying any mining equipment. It is better if you use that money to buy Bitcoins.

[DarwinNexus]

So, if we say that 1Th/s machines now cost 5900$ plus shipping and optional customs/tax, let's say it's 6500$ in total...
If I enter into calculator that:
- average diff increase is 20%
- electricity bills are 0$
maximum profit this machine can make before new year is: 5400$

Now did I get something wrong or what?!?!
Check yourself:

http://aleks1k.github.io/bitcoin-calculator/?Hashrate=1&HashrateLevel=1e12&HardwarePower=200&Difficulty=4250217919.87&DifficultyIncrement=0.203&StartDate=NaN&EndDate=NaN&PoolFee=0&ElectricityPrice=0&Currency=USD&CurrencyRate=636.66#BTC

New machines don't cost $6500 though.
They cost approximately $3900 (BitmainTech 1TH machines anyway).

Where you getting your rigs/numbers from?

[sale]

from AliExpress.com , ebay, amazon, http://bitmine.ch/?product=coincraft-rig-mid-january-batch

BTW, based on https://twitter.com/BITMAINtech
their s2 will cost 3900$ but ships on 10th of april... While my find(5900$) would be shipped on 20th of march...
Also, I said 6500$ is with all other expenses included!

[Kenshin]

from AliExpress.com , ebay, amazon, http://bitmine.ch/?product=coincraft-rig-mid-january-batch

BTW, based on https://twitter.com/BITMAINtech
their s2 will cost 3900$ but ships on 10th of april... While my find(5900$) would be shipped on 20th of march...
Also, I said 6500$ is with all other expenses included!

They are resellers, you should buy from this forum. Most of the sellers on those sites, got their stock from here.

[mrdeposit]

from AliExpress.com , ebay, amazon, http://bitmine.ch/?product=coincraft-rig-mid-january-batch

BTW, based on https://twitter.com/BITMAINtech
their s2 will cost 3900$ but ships on 10th of april... While my find(5900$) would be shipped on 20th of march...
Also, I said 6500$ is with all other expenses included!

Buying 5 S1's and overclocking them (200ghs each) with the PSUs is still cheaper than $5900. You would get them before March 20th. I'm just saying.

[mechew]

You can get 1TH for about $3k, $4k at the most.

From someone who just took the plunge it cost me $3500 and I'm mining about 10% more than the mining calculator predicted and I'll break even in about 3 weeks.

[inflatin]

If you could get your hands on a 1TH machine TODAY, what pool would you choose?

[Littleshop]

If you could get your hands on a 1TH machine TODAY, what pool would you choose?

Half the power on p2p pool, half on bitminter.

[inflatin]

If you could get your hands on a 1TH machine TODAY, what pool would you choose?

Half the power on p2p pool, half on bitminter.

Whats your reasoning behind this? Why not just throw it all behind Ghash, Eligius or BTCGuild? They're big pools, but you'd be rewarded with blocks more frequently.

[trinsic]

The problem is you're only looking at short term profits and not looking at the value of Bitcoin changing at all. Which it does a lot.

[Groc]

I'd wait for the ASICMiner products to start shipping before buying any rig.

[Littleshop]

If you could get your hands on a 1TH machine TODAY, what pool would you choose?

Half the power on p2p pool, half on bitminter.

Whats your reasoning behind this? Why not just throw it all behind Ghash, Eligius or BTCGuild? They're big pools, but you'd be rewarded with blocks more frequently.

Diversification.  I don't want all of the mining in just the big pools, it devalues Bitcoin.  Also the payout while more random is larger long term with P2P. 

[Groc]

it's really only profitable at less than $2 a ghs delivered. otherwise just buy btc and hold.

[mwizard]

The use of 20% for the difficulty increase should be questioned.

It is much more likely the difficulty increase this year will be 15% falling to 10%. 

I suggest you redo the calculations assuming 15%.  In this case mining is attractive and the miner is profitable to run well into 2015.

So what it comes down to is do you believe the difficulty increase this year will average 20% or is 10-15% more likely.  Remember the last difficulty increase was 11.39%.

[spazzdla]

The S1 Ant miner from Bitmaintech seems like it earns a good profit..?

[sale]

The use of 20% for the difficulty increase should be questioned.

It is much more likely the difficulty increase this year will be 15% falling to 10%. 

I suggest you redo the calculations assuming 15%.  In this case mining is attractive and the miner is profitable to run well into 2015.

So what it comes down to is do you believe the difficulty increase this year will average 20% or is 10-15% more likely.  Remember the last difficulty increase was 11.39%.

Ok, put the diff increase at 15%..
By calculations, machine of 1Th/s arrived at 29.03. at price 5900$(with shipping+customs+taxes included) will pay of exactly at new years eve
And assuming price of 636$ per BTC..

[mwizard]

As has been mentioned already your entire assumption that a 1 Th/S machine typically costs $5,900 or $6,500 is wrong, as is your assumption that difficulty increases will average 20% this year.

The cost for the Bitmain Antminer S2 1 Th/s is given on their site as $3599 USD ( 5.845 BTC ) for shipment by April 10th.
See https://www.bitmaintech.com/product.htm.

It is hard to see customs and shipping adding $1,900 or $2,500. 

We would love to see you calculations (power, power supply, customs assumptions etc) if you think Antminer S2s are still unprofitable at $3,599 with say a 15% difficulty increase.  Possibly there is something we are missing, for example you live somewhere with very high customs duties or where power is very expensive.

Note on difficulty - In reality it is expected the difficulty increases later this year will fall far below 15%.  15% can be considered worst case.  10% may be more realistic after the middle of the year.
 

[sale]

April 10th is in 22 days!!!! By the time it arrives and you pull it from customs, it will take another 7-10 days...
If you wanna buy machines now, then lets say it's 4500$.
Shipping to my country is 800$ , taxes are 20%, customs, 2-5%.. Lets suppose value written on invoice is 2000$.. If you put less, you risk customs will confiscate it because they will check on ebay how much it costs...
Company that will do the customs duty papers and delivery is 100$ at least.. There are other smaller expenses, but let's say that's it.. We come to ~5900$ if you buy NOW...
If you will wait until april 10th, then price will of course be lower, but only for the amount of money you would earn by then..

As for difficulty, it will average to 20% IF bitcoin price jumps, I am sure of it.. Now, when it's worse then ever to make a ROI, diff increase is estimated at 12-14%... That's my opinion at least..

[superresistant]

Also the payout while more random is larger long term with P2P. 

What, so it was true ?

There was debate for years about it. Could you prove it with calculation please ?