How can buying 1Th/s machines now be profitable?!?

[klondike_bar]

The use of 20% for the difficulty increase should be questioned.

It is much more likely the difficulty increase this year will be 15% falling to 10%. 

I suggest you redo the calculations assuming 15%.  In this case mining is attractive and the miner is profitable to run well into 2015.

So what it comes down to is do you believe the difficulty increase this year will average 20% or is 10-15% more likely.  Remember the last difficulty increase was 11.39%.

Ok, put the diff increase at 15%..
By calculations, machine of 1Th/s arrived at 29.03. at price 5900$(with shipping+customs+taxes included) will pay of exactly at new years eve
And assuming price of 636$ per BTC..

now imagine if btc goes to $800. the electrical cost becomes much less significant

now imagine if we see more difficulty jumps like the last one at 11.2%? I don't think we will see a jump greater than 20% ever again IMO

[1714946488]

1714946488

[1714946488]

1714946488

[sudoku]

The next diff increase is projected at about 15%.

[syber]

The next diff increase is projected at about 15%.

Yeah basically seems like I'm going to shoot myself in the foot due to buying 5 x 1TH/s miners.
Even at 10% from the date of arrival after 12 weeks and onward I'm probably going to lose out on this one.
Sucks I hope the difficulty goes way down and BTC goes way up. Though the likelihood is that I should have just kept my investment in BTC vs wasting money on obsolete equipment.
I hope I'm wrong. 

Anyone know if you can use Coincraft A1 28nm ASIC Chips for altcoins or anything else?

[superresistant]

Yeah basically seems like I'm going to shoot myself in the foot due to buying 5 x 1TH/s miners.
Even at 10% from the date of arrival after 12 weeks and onward I'm probably going to lose out on this one.
Sucks I hope the difficulty goes way down and BTC goes way up. Though the likelihood is that I should have just kept my investment in BTC vs wasting money on obsolete equipment.
I hope I'm wrong.  

Why didn't you check prices first ?
AntMiner S2 1TH/s Miner (1w/GH/s) are 3600 USD
https://www.bitmaintech.com/productDetail.htm?pid=000201403150259438234hgMrx380699

A lot of people have them already



It only consume about 870 W while coincraft-desk consume up to 1875 W (turbo mode).

Also the return on investment highly depend on electricity cost. How much do you pay ?

Anyone know if you can use Coincraft A1 28nm ASIC Chips for altcoins or anything else?

No.

[spazzdla]

Just a point.. the average investor would kill to get their entire investment back in 1 year.. just saying.

[Searing]

The use of 20% for the difficulty increase should be questioned.

It is much more likely the difficulty increase this year will be 15% falling to 10%.  

I suggest you redo the calculations assuming 15%.  In this case mining is attractive and the miner is profitable to run well into 2015.

So what it comes down to is do you believe the difficulty increase this year will average 20% or is 10-15% more likely.  Remember the last difficulty increase was 11.39%.

Ok, put the diff increase at 15%..
By calculations, machine of 1Th/s arrived at 29.03. at price 5900$(with shipping+customs+taxes included) will pay of exactly at new years eve
And assuming price of 636$ per BTC..

now imagine if btc goes to $800. the electrical cost becomes much less significant

now imagine if we see more difficulty jumps like the last one at 11.2%? I don't think we will see a jump greater than 20% ever again IMO

i have a neptune 1st run order early order coming...I hope you are the "prophet of bitcoin" hanging on by my fingernails on if to keep this beast or not ...lucky they (knc) has a refund option...they just released a Titan scypt miner 10.2k w/shipping NO REFUND option I asked..so the days of refunds may be past for everyone .....its all the miners risk now it seems

but I like the never above 11.2% difficulty rise of BTC having a large high end of the Que machine ..by that I mean last big run till summer...me thinks... be great i  manage to hang on to this beast likely 4TH Neptune....(sigh........as I say this BTC is tanking...story of my life)....still have the reset (ie refund button) to push thou

11.2% makes me feel all rosy (assuming the damn thing comes)

Searing


Searing

[klondike_bar]

^this jump looks like it will be somewhere between 14% and 16%, which is pretty good IMO with the spoondolie miner and dragon miners now being produced in large numbers.

The market can only take on so much equipment at a time. most miners are fully invested right now, and if rebuying with the mined rewards its hard to imagine adding more than 5-10% capacity every 12 days forever. New miners are also an option, but its likely they are not bying large amounts of hardware.

A lot of initial high jumps came from established GPU miners moving thier money to ASIC and possibly opening up cold wallets to do so. That time is passed now and the growth will have to become more linear and consistent.

With BTC dropping and summer coming, its very likely that people will start holding off on buying equipment thus reducing the difficulty rate. some of the 4w/Gh or higher gear will be going offline very soon which may help a little.


however, most of the 1TH gear thats priced $3500-$4000 makes no sense unless bitcoin prices go back above $600

[Syke]

Just a point.. the average investor would kill to get their entire investment back in 1 year.. just saying.

With bitcoin mining, you either break even in a few months, or you never will. With "average" investments, you may have to wait longer, but eventually you'll break even.

[klondike_bar]

Just a point.. the average investor would kill to get their entire investment back in 1 year.. just saying.

With bitcoin mining, you either break even in a few months, or you never will. With "average" investments, you may have to wait longer, but eventually you'll break even.

^that is not at all true. 6 months ago it looked like antminers and anything drawing >1w/GH would be useless by now. however, it now looks like they have another 4-8 months of profitable lifespan ahead of them.

additionally untrue is your second statement. not all investment vehicles break even. equipment can burn out or break, the market can change, or the value of your product can dive. There is never a guarenteed break-even. but bitcoin miners stand a good chance

[Entropy-uc]

Just a point.. the average investor would kill to get their entire investment back in 1 year.. just saying.

With bitcoin mining, you either break even in a few months, or you never will. With "average" investments, you may have to wait longer, but eventually you'll break even.

^that is not at all true. 6 months ago it looked like antminers and anything drawing >1w/GH would be useless by now. however, it now looks like they have another 4-8 months of profitable lifespan ahead of them.

additionally untrue is your second statement. not all investment vehicles break even. equipment can burn out or break, the market can change, or the value of your product can dive. There is never a guarenteed break-even. but bitcoin miners stand a good chance

You can construct any fantasy you wish and justify it by examining a time frame where bitcoin exchange rates increased by a factor of 15.

The reality Syke is explaining to you is that in the current environment a miner earns as much BTC in the first 60 days of operation as it will in the remaining life of the machine. If you don't break even in that time frame, odds are you will never see a reasonable risk adjusted return on the investment.

And bitcoin is as likely to return to $20 / bitcoin as it is to revisit $1200.

[serje]

If I would have 1TH I would go all in in a medium-big sized p2pool!

You will get a block every now and then but you will be 140% sure you will get your coins!

I'm not saying someone will hack btcguild or ghash but maybe they will hack in your account so why bother paying fees and having a risk when you can do it risk free?

[klondike_bar]

Just a point.. the average investor would kill to get their entire investment back in 1 year.. just saying.

With bitcoin mining, you either break even in a few months, or you never will. With "average" investments, you may have to wait longer, but eventually you'll break even.

^that is not at all true. 6 months ago it looked like antminers and anything drawing >1w/GH would be useless by now. however, it now looks like they have another 4-8 months of profitable lifespan ahead of them.

additionally untrue is your second statement. not all investment vehicles break even. equipment can burn out or break, the market can change, or the value of your product can dive. There is never a guarenteed break-even. but bitcoin miners stand a good chance

You can construct any fantasy you wish and justify it by examining a time frame where bitcoin exchange rates increased by a factor of 15.

The reality Syke is explaining to you is that in the current environment a miner earns as much BTC in the first 60 days of operation as it will in the remaining life of the machine. If you don't break even in that time frame, odds are you will never see a reasonable risk adjusted return on the investment.

And bitcoin is as likely to return to $20 / bitcoin as it is to revisit $1200.

clearly there are miners who think otherwise in order to be buying all the current equipment to the point of batches being sold out.

I am not talking about bitcoin going to $3000 or $7000. Im talking about bitcoin rebounding to $700 which I think is a totally fair value to use in my calculations, and with difficulty starting to taper a bit (we were doing 30% jumps back in november) towards 15%/jump average over the last month, I see a window to make a 10-20% gain per machine by the late 2014 (breakeven around july/august, 120% by november) and with a $10,000 investment that is a pretty good outcome.

bigger picture - im bullish. I think we are right near the bottom of the charts right now (might push to $525 at the lowest) and that a rebound to $650 will happen in the next 14 days, and sometime around may/june we could rally back past $1000. if this happens the bitcoins invested/mined will be worth even more than the power costs.

^yes, that last statement is speculation. But if it comes true, my 20% gains will be much closer to 30-40% gains. Not bad for a 6-10 month investment

[Entropy-uc]

Just a point.. the average investor would kill to get their entire investment back in 1 year.. just saying.

With bitcoin mining, you either break even in a few months, or you never will. With "average" investments, you may have to wait longer, but eventually you'll break even.

^that is not at all true. 6 months ago it looked like antminers and anything drawing >1w/GH would be useless by now. however, it now looks like they have another 4-8 months of profitable lifespan ahead of them.

additionally untrue is your second statement. not all investment vehicles break even. equipment can burn out or break, the market can change, or the value of your product can dive. There is never a guarenteed break-even. but bitcoin miners stand a good chance

You can construct any fantasy you wish and justify it by examining a time frame where bitcoin exchange rates increased by a factor of 15.

The reality Syke is explaining to you is that in the current environment a miner earns as much BTC in the first 60 days of operation as it will in the remaining life of the machine. If you don't break even in that time frame, odds are you will never see a reasonable risk adjusted return on the investment.

And bitcoin is as likely to return to $20 / bitcoin as it is to revisit $1200.

clearly there are miners who think otherwise in order to be buying all the current equipment to the point of batches being sold out.

I am not talking about bitcoin going to $3000 or $7000. Im talking about bitcoin rebounding to $700 which I think is a totally fair value to use in my calculations, and with difficulty starting to taper a bit (we were doing 30% jumps back in november) towards 15%/jump average over the last month, I see a window to make a 10-20% gain per machine by the late 2014 (breakeven around july/august, 120% by november) and with a $10,000 investment that is a pretty good outcome.

bigger picture - im bullish. I think we are right near the bottom of the charts right now (might push to $525 at the lowest) and that a rebound to $650 will happen in the next 14 days, and sometime around may/june we could rally back past $1000. if this happens the bitcoins invested/mined will be worth even more than the power costs.

^yes, that last statement is speculation. But if it comes true, my 20% gains will be much closer to 30-40% gains. Not bad for a 6-10 month investment

OR, you could just buy bitcoin today and make a 27% gain in 14 days if your prediction comes to pass.  Why work hard all year, pay rent and electric bills, and risk capital on bitcoin gear to make less money?

[ChuckBuck]

Just a point.. the average investor would kill to get their entire investment back in 1 year.. just saying.

With bitcoin mining, you either break even in a few months, or you never will. With "average" investments, you may have to wait longer, but eventually you'll break even.

^that is not at all true. 6 months ago it looked like antminers and anything drawing >1w/GH would be useless by now. however, it now looks like they have another 4-8 months of profitable lifespan ahead of them.

additionally untrue is your second statement. not all investment vehicles break even. equipment can burn out or break, the market can change, or the value of your product can dive. There is never a guarenteed break-even. but bitcoin miners stand a good chance

You can construct any fantasy you wish and justify it by examining a time frame where bitcoin exchange rates increased by a factor of 15.

The reality Syke is explaining to you is that in the current environment a miner earns as much BTC in the first 60 days of operation as it will in the remaining life of the machine. If you don't break even in that time frame, odds are you will never see a reasonable risk adjusted return on the investment.

And bitcoin is as likely to return to $20 / bitcoin as it is to revisit $1200.

clearly there are miners who think otherwise in order to be buying all the current equipment to the point of batches being sold out.

I am not talking about bitcoin going to $3000 or $7000. Im talking about bitcoin rebounding to $700 which I think is a totally fair value to use in my calculations, and with difficulty starting to taper a bit (we were doing 30% jumps back in november) towards 15%/jump average over the last month, I see a window to make a 10-20% gain per machine by the late 2014 (breakeven around july/august, 120% by november) and with a $10,000 investment that is a pretty good outcome.

bigger picture - im bullish. I think we are right near the bottom of the charts right now (might push to $525 at the lowest) and that a rebound to $650 will happen in the next 14 days, and sometime around may/june we could rally back past $1000. if this happens the bitcoins invested/mined will be worth even more than the power costs.

^yes, that last statement is speculation. But if it comes true, my 20% gains will be much closer to 30-40% gains. Not bad for a 6-10 month investment

OR, you could just buy bitcoin today and make a 27% gain in 14 days if your prediction comes to pass.  Why work hard all year, pay rent and electric bills, and risk capital on bitcoin gear to make less money?

But where's the fun in that?   

I don't know what it is about mining, but owning even a little hash makes you feel like you're part of something big.  The upkeep, the maintenance, the monitoring of hardware makes you feel like you're in charge of your mining datacenter(in alot of cases, yes).  The block rewards and chance to ROI are the cherry on the top.

[klondike_bar]

Just a point.. the average investor would kill to get their entire investment back in 1 year.. just saying.

With bitcoin mining, you either break even in a few months, or you never will. With "average" investments, you may have to wait longer, but eventually you'll break even.

^that is not at all true. 6 months ago it looked like antminers and anything drawing >1w/GH would be useless by now. however, it now looks like they have another 4-8 months of profitable lifespan ahead of them.

additionally untrue is your second statement. not all investment vehicles break even. equipment can burn out or break, the market can change, or the value of your product can dive. There is never a guarenteed break-even. but bitcoin miners stand a good chance

You can construct any fantasy you wish and justify it by examining a time frame where bitcoin exchange rates increased by a factor of 15.

The reality Syke is explaining to you is that in the current environment a miner earns as much BTC in the first 60 days of operation as it will in the remaining life of the machine. If you don't break even in that time frame, odds are you will never see a reasonable risk adjusted return on the investment.

And bitcoin is as likely to return to $20 / bitcoin as it is to revisit $1200.

clearly there are miners who think otherwise in order to be buying all the current equipment to the point of batches being sold out.

I am not talking about bitcoin going to $3000 or $7000. Im talking about bitcoin rebounding to $700 which I think is a totally fair value to use in my calculations, and with difficulty starting to taper a bit (we were doing 30% jumps back in november) towards 15%/jump average over the last month, I see a window to make a 10-20% gain per machine by the late 2014 (breakeven around july/august, 120% by november) and with a $10,000 investment that is a pretty good outcome.

bigger picture - im bullish. I think we are right near the bottom of the charts right now (might push to $525 at the lowest) and that a rebound to $650 will happen in the next 14 days, and sometime around may/june we could rally back past $1000. if this happens the bitcoins invested/mined will be worth even more than the power costs.

^yes, that last statement is speculation. But if it comes true, my 20% gains will be much closer to 30-40% gains. Not bad for a 6-10 month investment

OR, you could just buy bitcoin today and make a 27% gain in 14 days if your prediction comes to pass.  Why work hard all year, pay rent and electric bills, and risk capital on bitcoin gear to make less money?

You don't understand then. I buy mining equipment in BTC using coins I mined with the current hardware. When I am talking about a 20% profit i am talking BTC/BTC, not BTC/USD. If i hold my x BTC it will still be worth x BTC. If i buy a miner, I firmly believe I will make x+(30 to 40%) BTC minus electricity costs (at current price, about 25%).

[superresistant]

OR, you could just buy bitcoin today and make a 27% gain in 14 days if your prediction comes to pass.  Why work hard all year, pay rent and electric bills, and risk capital on bitcoin gear to make less money?

You don't understand then. I buy mining equipment in BTC using coins I mined with the current hardware. When I am talking about a 20% profit i am talking BTC/BTC, not BTC/USD. If i hold my x BTC it will still be worth x BTC. If i buy a miner, I firmly believe I will make x+(30 to 40%) BTC minus electricity costs (at current price, about 25%).

Most miners are negative. They are losing BTC.

[klondike_bar]

OR, you could just buy bitcoin today and make a 27% gain in 14 days if your prediction comes to pass.  Why work hard all year, pay rent and electric bills, and risk capital on bitcoin gear to make less money?

You don't understand then. I buy mining equipment in BTC using coins I mined with the current hardware. When I am talking about a 20% profit i am talking BTC/BTC, not BTC/USD. If i hold my x BTC it will still be worth x BTC. If i buy a miner, I firmly believe I will make x+(30 to 40%) BTC minus electricity costs (at current price, about 25%).

Most miners are negative. They are losing BTC.

*smirk*   
yup - sure are

$1750 bitfury (~17BTC) has made over 18BTC already and is still running at 260GH
any antminer bought at >3BTC has already broken even
all my other antminers will break even by mid august at the lastest
my antminer S2 should pay off no later than october

at that point, I will still have >4TH of paid-for equipment mining 'free' by the end of 2014. If bitcoin is still around (i think it will) and value goes up (it will if it stays around) then these machines could be viable to operate right into early 2015 on a profit

[superresistant]

OR, you could just buy bitcoin today and make a 27% gain in 14 days if your prediction comes to pass.  Why work hard all year, pay rent and electric bills, and risk capital on bitcoin gear to make less money?

You don't understand then. I buy mining equipment in BTC using coins I mined with the current hardware. When I am talking about a 20% profit i am talking BTC/BTC, not BTC/USD. If i hold my x BTC it will still be worth x BTC. If i buy a miner, I firmly believe I will make x+(30 to 40%) BTC minus electricity costs (at current price, about 25%).

Most miners are negative. They are losing BTC.

*smirk*   
yup - sure are

Yes they are. I've been selling many USB miners at a price that make it impossible to get any return even at current difficulty.
Everyday miners are sold on ebay the same way.

The hardware OP is talking about cannot be profitable.

Most people have no idea how to calculate a return on investment, yet they buy Bitcoin miners.

[ChuckBuck]

OR, you could just buy bitcoin today and make a 27% gain in 14 days if your prediction comes to pass.  Why work hard all year, pay rent and electric bills, and risk capital on bitcoin gear to make less money?

You don't understand then. I buy mining equipment in BTC using coins I mined with the current hardware. When I am talking about a 20% profit i am talking BTC/BTC, not BTC/USD. If i hold my x BTC it will still be worth x BTC. If i buy a miner, I firmly believe I will make x+(30 to 40%) BTC minus electricity costs (at current price, about 25%).

Most miners are negative. They are losing BTC.

*smirk*  
yup - sure are

Yes they are. I've been selling many USB miners at a price that make it impossible to get any return even at current difficulty.
Everyday miners are sold on ebay the same way.

The hardware OP is talking about cannot be profitable.

Most people have no idea how to calculate a return on investment, yet they buy Bitcoin miners.

Not if you buy the right miners, at the right price, from the right sellers/resellers, and in hand only.

Bitmain has disproved the whole preorder notion with their S1s.  Their S2's, though 2 week preorder, sold out within hours and should ROI if it's delivered on time beginning of April.

Of course EBay buyers won't ROI, they didn't do their homework!  

[klondike_bar]

ebay users also pay 150-200% spot price for gold and silver