Assumed monthly statistics on registered accounts of bitcointalk.org (2009-2019)Some main points are: As a result of garbage-posting, admin asked for 1 merit to become Junior Members, since September of 2018. 3 months later, December of 2018, we saw dramatical drops of monthly new registered account.
Interesting to see that despite amazingly rally of bitcoin since December of 2018, people have not yet created too many accounts (just
7.8% increase from bottom in December 2018). They likey woke up their old-era Newbie accounts (as the ban wave in April and May shows)
Update with newest data from theymos
In the last 30 days:
- 16441 users registered.
The total registed account in one-month period from 15 Nov. 2018 to 15 Dec. 2018 is at
20733.
It means that total registered accounts last 30 days is
20 percent lower than the figure in Dec. last year when Bitcoin bottomed out.
. di (20733-16441)/20733*100
20.701297
Latest given data from theymos, is another solid proof that spammers considerably reduce their pace of creating new accounts.
(1) Despite the rise of bitcoin to around $14,000, monthly registered accounts in last few months are too far away from
all time high at
238433, in Dec. 2017.
(2)
Minimum and
maximum are
3 and
238433, in Nov. 2009, and December 2017, respectively.
(3) 50% of months (from Nov. 2009 to June 2019) have total monthly registered accounts in the range from 2611 to 24472 (the interquatile range).
(4) 50% of those months have total monthly registered accounts above or below
10691 (the median).
(5) The
lowest and
highest medians (of months for each year) found at
148 and
66895, in 2010 and 2018.
(6) From peaks on 20/12/2017, BTC close price and monthly registered accounts decreased 91.3%, and 81%, respectively, on 15/12/2018.
(7) Since 15/12/2018, BTC close price and monthly registered accounts increased 159%, and
7.8%, respectively, on 1/6/2019.
* Details of points (6), (7), please read the second post of this thread.< ... >
Combining them, I converted dataset to use for below analysis
. list id day month2 year date regacc
+------------------------------------------------+
| id day month2 year date regacc |
|------------------------------------------------|
1. | 1 2 11 2009 02nov2009 3 |
2. | 2 2 12 2009 02dec2009 8 |
3. | 3 1 1 2010 01jan2010 8 |
4. | 4 31 1 2010 31jan2010 22 |
5. | 5 2 3 2010 02mar2010 5 |
|------------------------------------------------|
6. | 6 1 4 2010 01apr2010 22 |
7. | 7 1 5 2010 01may2010 15 |
8. | 8 31 5 2010 31may2010 33 |
9. | 9 30 6 2010 30jun2010 325 |
10. | 10 30 7 2010 30jul2010 159 |
|------------------------------------------------|
11. | 11 29 8 2010 29aug2010 148 |
12. | 12 28 9 2010 28sep2010 190 |
13. | 13 28 10 2010 28oct2010 204 |
14. | 14 27 11 2010 27nov2010 383 |
15. | 15 27 12 2010 27dec2010 384 |
|------------------------------------------------|
16. | 16 26 1 2011 26jan2011 938 |
17. | 17 25 2 2011 25feb2011 2202 |
18. | 18 27 3 2011 27mar2011 2737 |
19. | 19 26 4 2011 26apr2011 4936 |
20. | 20 26 5 2011 26may2011 14048 |
|------------------------------------------------|
21. | 21 25 6 2011 25jun2011 6250 |
22. | 22 25 7 2011 25jul2011 3903 |
23. | 23 24 8 2011 24aug2011 2938 |
24. | 24 23 9 2011 23sep2011 1983 |
25. | 25 23 10 2011 23oct2011 1965 |
|------------------------------------------------|
26. | 26 22 11 2011 22nov2011 1835 |
27. | 27 22 12 2011 22dec2011 1812 |
28. | 28 21 1 2012 21jan2012 2082 |
29. | 29 20 2 2012 20feb2012 1901 |
30. | 30 21 3 2012 21mar2012 2158 |
|------------------------------------------------|
31. | 31 20 4 2012 20apr2012 1969 |
32. | 32 20 5 2012 20may2012 2057 |
33. | 33 19 6 2012 19jun2012 2040 |
34. | 34 19 7 2012 19jul2012 2145 |
35. | 35 18 8 2012 18aug2012 2419 |
|------------------------------------------------|
36. | 36 17 9 2012 17sep2012 2661 |
37. | 37 17 10 2012 17oct2012 2958 |
38. | 38 16 11 2012 16nov2012 2763 |
39. | 39 16 12 2012 16dec2012 2611 |
40. | 40 15 1 2013 15jan2013 3320 |
|------------------------------------------------|
41. | 41 14 2 2013 14feb2013 4933 |
42. | 42 16 3 2013 16mar2013 13816 |
43. | 43 15 4 2013 15apr2013 18162 |
44. | 44 15 5 2013 15may2013 11318 |
45. | 45 14 6 2013 14jun2013 8095 |
|------------------------------------------------|
46. | 46 14 7 2013 14jul2013 6703 |
47. | 47 13 8 2013 13aug2013 5505 |
48. | 48 12 9 2013 12sep2013 4137 |
49. | 49 12 10 2013 12oct2013 5632 |
50. | 50 11 11 2013 11nov2013 26804 |
|------------------------------------------------|
51. | 51 11 12 2013 11dec2013 28776 |
52. | 52 10 1 2014 10jan2014 29576 |
53. | 53 9 2 2014 09feb2014 29839 |
54. | 54 11 3 2014 11mar2014 22534 |
55. | 55 10 4 2014 10apr2014 18065 |
|------------------------------------------------|
56. | 56 10 5 2014 10may2014 13071 |
57. | 57 9 6 2014 09jun2014 12180 |
58. | 58 9 7 2014 09jul2014 10561 |
59. | 59 8 8 2014 08aug2014 10925 |
60. | 60 7 9 2014 07sep2014 9418 |
|------------------------------------------------|
61. | 61 7 10 2014 07oct2014 8218 |
62. | 62 6 11 2014 06nov2014 7974 |
63. | 63 6 12 2014 06dec2014 8136 |
64. | 64 5 1 2015 05jan2015 23256 |
65. | 65 4 2 2015 04feb2015 36913 |
|------------------------------------------------|
66. | 66 6 3 2015 06mar2015 33500 |
67. | 67 5 4 2015 05apr2015 8450 |
68. | 68 5 5 2015 05may2015 8577 |
69. | 69 4 6 2015 04jun2015 10303 |
70. | 70 4 7 2015 04jul2015 11773 |
|------------------------------------------------|
71. | 71 3 8 2015 03aug2015 9725 |
72. | 72 2 9 2015 02sep2015 7644 |
73. | 73 2 10 2015 02oct2015 68601 |
74. | 74 1 11 2015 01nov2015 44059 |
75. | 75 1 12 2015 01dec2015 37106 |
|------------------------------------------------|
76. | 76 30 1 2016 30jan2016 42233 |
77. | 77 29 2 2016 29feb2016 24213 |
78. | 78 30 3 2016 30mar2016 19336 |
79. | 79 29 4 2016 29apr2016 16031 |
80. | 80 29 5 2016 29may2016 19935 |
|------------------------------------------------|
81. | 81 28 6 2016 28jun2016 12582 |
82. | 82 28 7 2016 28jul2016 10646 |
83. | 83 27 8 2016 27aug2016 9986 |
84. | 84 26 9 2016 26sep2016 9844 |
85. | 85 26 10 2016 26oct2016 10718 |
|------------------------------------------------|
86. | 86 25 11 2016 25nov2016 10691 |
87. | 87 25 12 2016 25dec2016 12429 |
88. | 88 24 1 2017 24jan2017 13664 |
89. | 89 23 2 2017 23feb2017 13893 |
90. | 90 25 3 2017 25mar2017 15276 |
|------------------------------------------------|
91. | 91 24 4 2017 24apr2017 20585 |
92. | 92 24 5 2017 24may2017 31381 |
93. | 93 23 6 2017 23jun2017 35866 |
94. | 94 23 7 2017 23jul2017 40726 |
95. | 95 22 8 2017 22aug2017 45026 |
|------------------------------------------------|
96. | 96 21 9 2017 21sep2017 70477 |
97. | 97 21 10 2017 21oct2017 95568 |
98. | 98 20 11 2017 20nov2017 144762 |
99. | 99 20 12 2017 20dec2017 238433 |
100. | 100 19 1 2018 19jan2018 136872 |
|------------------------------------------------|
101. | 101 18 2 2018 18feb2018 107237 |
102. | 102 20 3 2018 20mar2018 87087 |
103. | 103 19 4 2018 19apr2018 89659 |
104. | 104 19 5 2018 19may2018 83999 |
105. | 105 18 6 2018 18jun2018 72430 |
|------------------------------------------------|
106. | 106 18 7 2018 18jul2018 61360 |
107. | 107 17 8 2018 17aug2018 41451 |
108. | 108 16 9 2018 16sep2018 41516 |
109. | 109 16 10 2018 16oct2018 35335 |
110. | 110 15 11 2018 15nov2018 31502 |
|------------------------------------------------|
111. | 111 15 12 2018 15dec2018 20733 |
112. | 112 14 1 2019 14jan2019 20046 |
113. | 113 1 2 2019 01feb2019 16202 |
114. | 114 1 3 2019 01mar2019 18932 |
115. | 115 1 4 2019 01apr2019 17910 |
|------------------------------------------------|
116. | 116 1 5 2019 01may2019 24472 |
117. | 117 1 6 2019 01jun2019 22357 |
+------------------------------------------------+
Plot:
